http://www.goodcowfilms.com/web/theweek_china's-long-shadow.jpg

I love the quote at the end of the yellow box concerning enviomental concerns.

"If Chinese wanted to live like Americans we would need resources of four worlds."

You think the Chinese people or government is looking at their progress through the looking glass? Examining their own abnormal rise?

Independent, huh? Right.

If there's one thing the last five years have shown, it's that the Chinese DO want to "live like Americans". Within the next five years, China will have as many middle-class citizens as America has TOTAL citizens -- over 300 million.

Know what the popular barometer is for being in the "middle class" in China?

You get three guesses, and the first two don't count. One hint: It'll replace the family bicycle.

We have to face some pretty hard knock facts, the world is changing and that world is becoming Sino. I'll be learning Mandarin you? I don’t think China can ever have the same standards of the west, but some in China will. 400 million people are already out of poverty, and by 2015 the Chinese economy should be the world’s largest, and possibly the world largest importer/exporter? We as the world have to now mutate to accept the mold that China is making in our world. China has the ultimate absolute advantage, and is even stealing jobs away from Mexico, and Honduras! China is literally becoming the world’s factory, and her relative power is only going to increase. There are major problems in China, demographics, the environment, and an overheating economy. But I think that China’s growth is basically irreversible. In theory the world should benefit from a strong China (and to an extent it is).

The one thing you have to watch out for with China is its mounting debt. According to a recent Newsweek article (dim recollection here, so don't quote me on this) something like 50% of its loans are already considered non-producing, and that's a very bad sign. If they do have a collapse, it'll affect everyone on the planet.

Yes it will, and that is true that China has hundreds of billions of non-performing debt. But the thing is that we in the West cannot let China simply fall of the face of the Earth. China luckily has over $435 billion worth of FOREX so there is a safety net, and China has stopped all lending to overheated industries. I think China is in need to a correction, the best we can hope for is a soft landing for the truly massive Chinese economy. The US economy would suffer greatly if the Chinese simply collapse, inflation (which is already a problem) is bound to increase, and a shortage of consumer goods would occur, poor Wal-Mart not only would she have 1 million women suing it, it would face a shortage of goods! The US depends on the nice Chinese to buy US bonds, and treasuries of which the Chinese have around $165 billion worth (China being the largest US creditor). So it is in all our best interests to let China fall softly.

Interesting points.

I don't think most folks realize that economies that are booming do indeed have corrections, and they're fairly predictable events.

If you have seen The Last Samurai, you will note that not all change is good, especially at a fast pace.

Wonder if there's any resistance from those who don't want to be westernized?

Well there wasn't much historical accuracy in that particular movie (I submitted one anachronism to the Internet Movie Database myself). But I agree in general.

Another thing that's interesting about this whole China thing is that it's still a communist government. It seems to be disproving the old axiom that socialism cannot prosper.

Another thing that's interesting about this whole China thing is that it's still a communist government. It seems to be disproving the old axiom that socialism cannot prosper.

China is communist only in name; the Chinese govt is ensuring the implosion of communism in China. China wants a capitalist economy with a reformed socialist state, and China I think realizes that she has to become transparent so investors can feel more secure in the Chinese govt and legal systems.

Chinese will remain communist for the foreseeable future. It allows faster control and stability than a democratic system where pork barrel projects and election environment can mess up long term decisions. Faster and stable control with such a huge contry is what they need until they come of age. Once their economy plateaues, then they can take a breather towards some type of westernized socialist/democratic structure. At least that is what one senior official told me many years ago.

At least Reformism suggests that China is closely inclined to Capitalism with Control...

bye!

Has anyone noticed that no country in the world has actually gone from pastoral through to relatively modern state, whilst actually having what we now would call a representative democracy?

Not even the US?

Capitalism with control....? I thought Greenspan is our control...:D

Modern state and democracy....What do you call Japan? It is not really a democracy you know. It is more like China more than you know. Sweden....a socialist state. Switzerland...a state run by a few families. Soon China would be the biggest, most modern state with Communism and show the world that Applied Politics works. Theory does not. And what happens when USA starts begging China for money? :D

isn't china communist?

China is stalinist, ie strong central control. there is some regional autonomy, but i dont think anyone actually gets to vote for much, unlike what they would under the system of soviets.

I'm no expert on the USA, but it didnt really have a completely representative democracy until when in the 20th century I mean voting for women and everyone over a cetain age, not just a property qualification. And having a frontier with resources to use changes the equations somewhat, give a place to grow and develop and let off excess pressure.

USA is a controlled democracy of the rich and powerful who take advantage of the poor and weak - just enough to keep the country at the top.

Just returned from a trip to Mexico. People are upset about the job loss to China, but are not smart enough to understand the complex situation or make the changes necessary for growth. I had the same talk with the Chinese officials in 1984 that I did with the Mexican group just last week. One got it and the other did not.

I am at a loss to explain to myself, why that is the case. Is it the cultural differences?

So far I had about 5+ threads that went on about china and what I think. Personally I think its gonna burst, Its gonna burst badly and semi-unexpectedly. It will be soon 6 months to 2 years from now and the nice little things that are occuring now are simply giving small signs of it happening.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-07/22/content_350586.htm
If you notice what this article states
"China saw its first half-year trade deficit of US$6.82 billion this year, as imports surged 42.6 per cent compared to 35.7 per cent for exports."
Now please think for a few seconds and let it sink in. The only strength it held was cheap quantity good production capability with low or no quality. Instead of garnering surefire profits by slowly encroaching this market rationaly they threw it away by imposing market control procedures (tieing yuan to dollar cost instead of market "world" cost) therefor bidding up world prices for commodities needed to produce those goods twice as fast while keeping their selling prices frozen lowering their profit margins. This did two things killed off all the competition and made it unprofitable of actually producing all those things.

Furthermore I am sure the Three gorge dam will burst and its just a matter of time till this disaster strikes. The reason I m sure is because the german companies which have been exemplery in areas such as quality construction have been squeezed out by the chinese. All the important service contracts are transfered over to low cost non quality and non qualified chinese technicians who dont know how to service dam projects of this magnitude properly. Maintenance moneys is probably so skimmed off that all the sedement that hasnt been cleaned out nor repairs and checks on structural integrity will not be conducted properly especially as the flooding season progresses.

Also notice the amount of pending anti-dumping legislation against china in wto that will come into effect within the next 2 years. China on the other hand cant really feed itself and has to import food and energy to feed its production capacity/capability. I read how they have to ration electricity and its not uncommon for lots of power interruptions to occur that stop production during the week.

I think the problem is that China is growing out of control. They don't have the infrastructure, and it might not be very orderly. Here, in Brasil, we have had this kind of growth too. It cause a few things such as inflation, high interest rates and lack of infrastructure. With China, it might be the same.

Now, the economy is overheated. But what will happen when the living standarts keep rising and people start earning more money? It will lose all the appeal for exportation. The costs of work will increase and the cost of the products will obviously increase with it. Then, what is heating up the economy will cool down until it come to a stable stop, hopefully. But if it happen as sudden as the heating up, we might have a collapse in the economy, with no money to pay for all that is going on. And I think the worst would be inflation.... :eek:

Other countries are jealous of the Chinese heated economy which is under the careful watch of the tightly controlled government. As they say, watching pot never boils....:D

Thankfully China’s economy is landing softly as I predicted:


The most public accomplishment of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, the new general secretary and the new premier, is the economy’s continuing and quietly engineered “soft landing”, planned as an alternative to the hard landing that might follow too many burst bubbles. Recent signs have been hopeful: industrial output slowed for a fifth straight month in June, with goods trade remaining strong and growth in fixed-asset investment declining to an annualised 28.7% in the first half of the year, down from an astronomical 43.1% in the first quarter. The question remains whether China will be able to digest the effects of its present massive investment in manufacturing and construction. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects GDP to grow by 9.4% this year and by 8.1% next year. Consumer price inflation will average 3.3% in 2004, before easing to 2% in 2005.

I think more realistic growth in China for it to make it to the inevitable status of #1.

lol ur hillarious...
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P82353.asp

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/040801/3/1lvc6.html
now think of the ramifications ... ( they shifted date from attacking taiwan from 2020 to 2008 or so I figure they will shift it again and probably attack in 2005-6)
Whats going to happen is the following countries will enact punitive actions and use the taiwan war as a leverage to create better trade deals for their nations. I figure that after its over china will clunk into a huge recession and that would be the window of investment opportunity.

lol ur hillarious...

Actually as usual you seem to believe that an opinion piece means anything, that’s hilarious, let me tell you. Stop appealing to authority; I’d rather trust the economist’s predictions.

now think of the ramifications ... ( they shifted date from attacking taiwan from 2020 to 2008 or so I figure they will shift it again and probably attack in 2005-6)
Whats going to happen is the following countries will enact punitive actions and use the taiwan war as a leverage to create better trade deals for their nations. I figure that after its over china will clunk into a huge recession and that would be the window of investment opportunity.

Yah typical, wild nonsensical speculation of something that won’t happen. The same way that magically the three gorges dam will flood all of southern China and kill 400 million people, ignoring the fact that the three gorges dam is in the middle of country, and that killing 400 million is impossible. So yes pretend what you are writing makes any sense, or is even relevant it’s always the funniest to read.

when i put up ecconomic pieces up you say they arent worth anything when i put up something contrary to ur beliefs ur blind like a bull who sees red its ok I understand that you have a delusion of grandure complex and only your opinion is the right one. I m ok with that because I know sometimes i m wrong and sometimes I m right on this issue however I simply disagree with you and I do have a good part of the ecconomic comunity behind me to actually support some of my claims. Although you seem to feel that I m a moron simply because my opinion differs from yours.

All I can say is shove it and I stand behind my speculative predictions that within 2 years or less by november of 2006 or sooner china will get the cringes on its ecconomic screws. It might turn out wrong but I still believe in it.

And the dam will collapse because they switched maintenance contractors from solid german engeneering firms to chinese firms who have very low experience in that particular field. Most of the flooding has been caused by wild dam building and its only the begining. The dam is in mid of country but it blocks two rivers which flow outward now imagine the dam faultering adn releasing the sea of water behind it, naturally it would go through the river paths.

Although you seem to feel that I m a moron simply because my opinion differs from yours.
Sounds just the opposite.... :p


All I can say is shove it and I stand behind my speculative predictions that within 2 years or less by november of 2006 or sooner china will get the cringes on its ecconomic screws. It might turn out wrong but I still believe in it.
"Speculations" always trun out to be true, since they are the ones that cause the recessions in the first place.... :rolleyes:

when i put up ecconomic pieces up you say they arent worth anything when i put up something contrary to ur beliefs ur blind like a bull who sees red its ok I understand that you have a delusion of grandure complex and only your opinion is the right one.

All I said is that opinion pieces are just that an opinion, it’s not a fact you know in university you cannot present a “opinion” piece as actual evidence to show an objective stance. I can find opinion pieces that say that the Earth is flat, but really I want to see the facts in a non-bias way please.

I do have a good part of the ecconomic comunity behind me to actually support some of my claims.

Would love to see this imaginary community…

Although you seem to feel that I m a moron simply because my opinion differs from yours.

Don’t be so harsh on yourself, it's really quite pathetic.

All I can say is shove it and I stand behind my speculative predictions that within 2 years or less by november of 2006 or sooner china will get the cringes on its ecconomic screws.

My I never thought a Russian would get so emotional, its so unlike Russians. Well I see you are aware of your inferiority because if you weren’t you would be able to give a well supported, and realistic argument. I know how you can make lots of money, a comic book writer, TRUST me.

And the dam will collapse because they switched maintenance contractors from solid german engeneering firms to chinese firms who have very low experience in that particular field.

Actually in response to that:


Corruption scandals have also plagued the project. Contractors allegedly won bids through bribery and then siphoned off construction funds by skimping on equipment and materials. After a number of accidents, much of the project's infrastructure ripped out in 1999.

Also here is justification from Japan for her support for the dam:


Arguments marshalled by the Japanese to support their final decision do provide some answers to the project's critics. After intensive reviews by the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Japan claimed the project offered the following main benefits:
Flood control: Japan believes the project will achieve its objectives in this area, despite claims that it could actually increase the risk of floods, either through changes in silt flow or a catastrophic dam collapse. This issue in particular has attracted popular sympathy for the project in Japan.
Emissions reduction: the plant's output will be equivalent to several large coal-fired plants burning 40 to 50 million t/y. If it is not built, soaring Chinese emissions will rise even faster, causing more acid rain in Japan.
Relocation: Japan believes current plans are adequate, although the situation would need to be kept under review.
Most of the flooding has been caused by wild dam building and its only the begining.

XIAOLANGDI HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT has been online now for four years no, no reported accidents. It resembles the design of the Three Gorges Dam.

The dam is in mid of country but it blocks two rivers which flow outward now imagine the dam faultering adn releasing the sea of water behind it, naturally it would go through the river paths.

The valley’s yes, and I agree with you that a dam collapse is possible but barely so. I don’t think seriously that it would actually happen. I am wiling to talk about a Three Gorges dam collapse with you, but you can’t say it will happen for sure, the problem with you is that you talk in absolutist terms. I hate people who talk in absolutist terms, I am open to other opinions but those that make sense.

I never present my opinion as fact i presisely said that it is an opinion I never said that what I said is factual... I do however say that it is my *belief* that it will occur and what I believe and u believe are separate things. I make sense if you realize that what I m stating is my opinion and my beliefs about trends I do however tend to try to say that it isn't just my opinion but also an opinion of a fair amount of other people. Granted it might not be a majority by any shot but it is there and no disputing that.

When I try to bring articles to show that some others share my *opinion* you accuse me of trying to present facts which sometimes I do. Especially in that BBC link where they interview average Chinese and their ecconomic realities. But most of the time i just try to express opinion of the oposite spectrum from yourself although you are always hostile to say that such opinion exists outside my person alone. If you think I m talking in absolutes maybe you are right and you are wrong but because I m expressing an opinion you cannot dispute that it is just that. Sure things could either way but calling me stupid and pathetic doesn't mean my opinions are wrong.

The problem with you Eluminate is that you take one little thing and blow way out of proportion. You say things that usually have nothing to back them up, and you expect me not to ridicule those assertions? Seriously now think of it, was I unjustified in questioning the assertion that the Three Gorges Dam would collapse and kill half of China’s population in the south of the country and expect to be taken seriously? You may have some valid points, but your problem is that you won’t listen to fact. The fact is that if China’s economy were to collapse tomorrow so would much of the world’s economic growth,that is a fact. China is running the world economy, it is demanding goods and it’s growth has allowed many third world states a renaissance with their export earnings. The US market is still closed too much of those states exports, China demands their commodities. Your opinion is fine, but don’t spew nonsense that’s what I am saying. I suspect you just write to write, so you don’t lose face. We can talk about China’s massive problems which she does have, no doubt but we cannot pretend that these dark scenarios are going to happen no matter what. For instance:

now think of the ramifications ... ( they shifted date from attacking taiwan from 2020 to 2008 or so I figure they will shift it again and probably attack in 2005-6)
Do you honestly expect me to believe that China would tell anyone when she is actually going to invade Taiwan; do you expect me to believe that you know that will happen in 2005? Honestly now, all I have to say is look at Taiwan’s trade partners, and the source of her growth. Economics run China’s foreign policy not missiles. That is a historic Chinese trait…you should know that before making completely illogical, unsubstantiated, and imaginative assertions. I’m pretty sure you can do better then that…

I didnt say half of chinas population i said 400 mil which is about a third. Not far fetched if it actually happens. Taking me seriously or not belittling my opinion is not warranted. Sure you could disagree with me but puting me down is not right.

I m not talking about facts most of the time... We agree on that right. My opinion is mine and those I quote you can't have facts to dispute it because facts do not discredit opinions of other people. Sure the likelyhood of what I say might* happen is small but its there and I believe in it. I try to show others who believe it or at least question some of the nice and cozy pictures that are painted over china.

if you disagree with me fine but what You say is "nonsense" may not be to someone.

The reason I think taiwan will be attacked in 2005-2006 is partly in the 1st article link i gave in msns article. Basicly china needs technological infrustructre which taiwan has and canibolising an existing structure is easier then building one from scratch. What they are expecting is the expedient incorporation of the know how into greater china to create self sufficient tech added value to their products to begin competing with other tech exporting nations as well as staving off increased imports of tech goods by substituting their own. Other variables such as financial infusion of another states finance strengths into its own shaky system to strengthen the banks and help garner flexibility for ultimate reforms.

I didnt say half of chinas population i said 400 mil which is about a third. Not far fetched if it actually happens.

It’s impossible, see this is what I am talking about. Nothing can kill 400 million people, nothing ever has and nothing ever will. Even if it were a disease with modern technology, and prevention measures the death toll would be lucky if it exceeded 2 million. Where do these 400 million live, how would they all die, in what time frame, etc. If anyone thinks that it is possible for a dam collapse to kill 400 million people please raise your voices.

Taking me seriously or not belittling my opinion is not warranted.

So you don’t want me to take you seriously? That’s what you wrote.

Sure you could disagree with me but puting me down is not right.

I am merely telling you that your outrageous assumptions are just that, and not even valid opinions. Is my opinion valid if I were to say that the Sun revolved around the Earth irregardless of facts that suggest otherwise? Now you know how I feel.

I m not talking about facts most of the time... We agree on that right.

Without question, but to have a valid opinion you have to have them supported by facts.

I try to show others who believe it or at least question some of the nice and cozy pictures that are painted over china.

No one even insinuated as such.

if you disagree with me fine but what You say is "nonsense" may not be to someone.

Well one person could agree with you but that’s irrelevant we shant appeal to popularity.

i m supported by facts that china has a few perils coming from behind ...
valid opinion? there is just opinion making it valid is creating a justification of weather you believe it or not therefor its biased to say that. All opinion are valid even if... wrong *not saying that I m wrong* just saying all opinions can coexist.

Why do you think that only one person would agree surely there is always a few people who believe in the worse to come for china. I showed you lots of things that support my opinion...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3937403.stm
( my 400 million in link above lol)
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P82353.asp
( some of the things that are coming as well )

i m supported by facts that china has a few perils coming from behind ...

Surely every country has perils as well, China is not unique. I’d vouch that China is in much better shape then Russia for instance, or Japan even.

valid opinion? there is just opinion making it valid is creating a justification of weather you believe it or not therefor its biased to say that. All opinion are valid even if... wrong *not saying that I m wrong* just saying all opinions can coexist.

What’s the point of listening to illogical and pointless opinions? So you can feel important? No that’s not the way it works. Either your opinions make sense or not, it’s that simple.

Why do you think that only one person would agree surely there is always a few people who believe in the worse to come for china.

Ok two…

I showed you lots of things that support my opinion...

You have! My…

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3937403.stm
( my 400 million in link above lol)

You only proved what I said about you:


The problem with you Eluminate is that you take one little thing and blow way out of proportion.

All that links says is: Along the river's banks live a third of China's enormous population, more than 400 million people.. That does not prove in any way that 400 million are going to die, also your accusation was not about the Yellow River it was the Three Gorges Dam killing 400 million people, it is obviously to me you don’t even know where the dam is. So you haven’t proved shit…

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P82353.asp
( some of the things that are coming as well )

Ok that’s the same opinion piece as before, it’s not changing anything for you. Like I said before get a real source of information.

feels bad to be wrong ah ...
* gloating *
(if u remember i said because they built dams everywhere they will have shortage of food harvests and it will cause famine...)

Ur also leaving out that this is the breadbasket and its food output is set to diminish by 20-40% in near future all the people alongst its banks would be effected granted not all would die. They said 10-20 mill i think. But you just wait the three gorges dam will burst you just see cause this specificly states that reckles dam building is at fault. So the same will replicate there just will take slightly bit longer.

Also I believe they said a dustbowl like in 1930s in America which made farmers go to Calif and chinese got no cali so they would starve and flood the cities...

feels bad to be wrong ah ...
* gloating *
(if u remember i said because they built dams everywhere they will have shortage of food harvests and it will cause famine...)

Long before that assertion you stated that the three gorges dam would kill that many people, and magically flood all of southern China. Trust me there is no justification behind your gloating…

Ur also leaving out that this is the breadbasket and its food output is set to diminish by 20-40% in near future all the people alongst its banks would be effected granted not all would die.

So you now realize that 400 million dying is…ridiculous?

They said 10-20 mill i think.

I think you can’t read:


Literally tens of millions of farmers could be pushed off the land, and China has no California for them to move to.
Unless there is something I missed here, there not even a mention of death. What you ignored to your own peril is the real problem outlined in the article:

Instead they would flood in to the cities, further swelling the ranks of the unemployed and dispossessed.
That’s the relevant part, but that escapes you because you like the Hollywood type scenarios.
But you just wait the three gorges dam will burst you just see cause this specificly states that reckles dam building is at fault. So the same will replicate there just will take slightly bit longer.
That statement made no sense, rephrase.
Also I believe they said a dustbowl like in 1930s in America which made farmers go to Calif and chinese got no cali so they would starve and flood the cities...
You forget that the Chinese can still import food, that will hurt the current account but it would be necessary. Since China’s population isn’t growing, and is aging the amount of people who will need to be fed will decrease steadily after 2050. Luckily for China that’s when the serious agricultural may really kick in:

In the next 50 years temperatures in Northern China are expected to rise by 3 to 4C.
It is true China doesn’t have a California and that is a problem no doubt. These are the problems that you missed because you are an overactive imagination:
- China’s massive economic expansion.
- China’s horrid environmental policy
- Global Warming
- China’s rapidly growing urban centres.
Those are the real problems, not some stupid dam.

lol i bet your mad....

Dams... Financial infrustructure thats painted over but has no footing... (want me to give you a link they just infused another bank with billions because it was about to faulter)... Commodity prices soaring now they import about 7% of their food consumption which will move up rapidly because of the newly rich and will deteriorate the diet of the not so rich who cant afford prices that move 50% on general food staples... Did you miss my link about regular chinese and food prices they giving their side of the story how the cheapest rice went up in price by 50%+ percent.

Admit it you are wrong and I am 1000% Right.

lol i bet your mad....

I know your illiterate.

Dams... Financial infrustructure thats painted over but has no footing...

What are you saying? You aren’t making any sense. Does anyone understand this?

Commodity prices soaring now they import about 7% of their food consumption which will move up rapidly because of the newly rich and will deteriorate the diet of the not so rich who cant afford prices that move 50% on general food staples...

Commodity prices for food should decrease significantly once the WTO completes the deregulation of agriculture internationally. Production should increase, and China will prove to be a further force for international economic growth, especially in the third world. Barely understanding what you wrote, I would have to say that China will have to depress prices for food in order for the population to be fed adequately ,that will further put pressure on the Chinese budget, but it is necessary.

Admit it you are wrong and I am 1000% Right.

Sadly no one understands what you are uttering about, so if it gives a boost to your needy ego sure your right whatever you say. ;)

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040701faessay83405/george-j-gilboy/the-myth-behind-china-s-miracle.html

I have a subscription, and can post the entire article if there is interest.

I'd like to read the rest please...

Me too, if you don't mind posting it.

Here it is guys. It's in PDF format so you need Acrobat Reader 6.0 to view. You can get that here (http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html).

Click to open the 165kb PDF (http://www.sincerussia.com/myelin/83405.pdf)

Thanks!

China is certainly the rising power today. With the second biggest economy in the world, it appears that China will be the second most powerful nation in the world if it is not already that.

Thanks for the article. It was a good article and it explained the structural inefficiencies of China’s industry and her complete dependence on FDI, but I still don't buy the premise of that article that China isn’t a great state yet. What he neglects to point out is that China is the driving force in Asia for economic growth, and its insatiable demand for commodities is hurting the US economy very badly. China already is South Korea’s and Taiwan’s largest export partner, and within the next 2 years or so Japan will depend on China more then the US for export growth. He ignores the Chinese market, the Chinese consumer, the huge amounts of savings that the average Chinese has, the $430+ billion China has in FOREX, and the article is missing a lot of things that tell a different story about China. It’s a good article but not good enough to change this posters mind about China’s relative economic power. The numbers don’t lie, for all the implications of the article the US is not prospering from a relationship from China, rather this relationship by the looks of it seems to point towards overaccumulation. Also he doesn’t mention at all the dependence that TNC’s and even other states have on China to muscle up their profits. Much was missed in that article…

In fact, the United States and China are developing precisely the type of economic relationship that U.S. strategy has long sought to create. China now has a stake in the liberal, rules-based global economic system that the United States worked to establish over the past half- century.

But China is not exactly what the US wants now is it? China is not the democratic state, with open access to her markets, China is a very one sided story, and I think this quote gives to much credit to a mediocre American policy towards China. I wouldn’t imagine that for 50 years American policy makers were saying to themselves “let’s become economically dependant on cheap Chinese labour”. Granted that China is now a firm partner in Globalization, but that doesn’t indicate that this is in America’s very best interests.

Summary: Washington need not worry about China's economic boom, much less respond with protectionism. Although China controls more of the world's exports than ever before, its high-return high-tech industries are dominated by foreign companies. And Chinese firms will not displace them any time soon: Beijing's one-party politics have bred a timid business culture that prevents domestic firms from developing key technologies and keeps them dependent on the West.

Wishful thinking

hi everyone in here
i am chinese here
and i think you shoud all come here to have a look at this new land
we are changing,not only the country
our people are changing
i am now 17 years old,and my major is ECONOMICS ...lol i am new in the collage
and have found our schools have changed great a lot
i am here in china and saw all the great chang here
and chinese are not like before---we have lots of thoughts of you west ppl
we china are in the earth too
we no longer just grow up in east asia
we think about things more in the way of the future and the global
and TAIWAN ---no better what happens we chinese must and we can make it back to us.and when we have to make a choice,we all chinese ppl in the world will fight for TAIWAN,even we will lose our lives
so compare with the economics,we know what we want 1st.
/p.s. my english is so bad....lol

Cyco: I like to hear your thougths on "us" westen people, what do you think of us Europeas and the North Amerikans?

p.s. dont worry to much about your english

cyco.rEal

Do you consider (as an economics major) that a invasion of Taiwan to be the best thing for China’s economy? Also how about the growing gaps in the "communist" state btwn the rich coastal regions and the poor interior? Also how about the 100 million people who are floating around China, and most importantly the HUGE amounts of money wasted on State owned industry and the way the banks give billions to support these non-performing organizations? I would like to hear your opinion?

Wishful thinking
Your thorough and cogent analysis has convinced me.

as uknow,we do have sum problems in our economics ,but they are also our sociall problems.in last 10 or 20 years we have many rich ppl who make their money by the chances when we 1st open our doors to the world,but its not the regular way they make money.they dont have the knowledge and ability to run such a big buisiness.now ,we chinese pay more attention on our education.the race of students getting the high education (i am now going to collage) in my province has reached 60% and that in last year is 45%.we are making our steps to have our growing more corractly and swiftly. we have about 13,billions ppl ,and the poor ppl probllem reeeeally trouble us.and this begins after we join the WTO rapid.and i am now think bout this question.(we can talk about it later)
LAst,our goverment is really not good enough ,but its in china,we dont have whiz!
we must chang it slowly ,i belive we can reeach the goal.
TAIWAN---its always our pain in our hearts,would everyone do me a favor to talk about this not in a economical way!it has nothing to do with it!TAIWAN is TAIWAN!
its ours,its chinese!no matter what we have pay for TAIWAN's return,we swear we will get it back.
i think many western ppl dont really know what chinese think.you can understand our new country from me.

cyco.rEal

Well you are entitled to your opinions but you still haven’t answered some of my more important questions, I will ask them again:

Do you consider (as an economics major) that an invasion of Taiwan to be the best thing for China’s economy?
The growing gaps in the "communist" state btwn the rich coastal regions and the poor interior?
The 100 million people who are floating around China, unemployed, and the de-industrialization of the Manchurian region?
The HUGE amounts of money wasted on State owned industry and the way the banks give billions to support these non-performing organizations?
The environmental crisis your state faces with low water tables, and having 9 of the worst polluted cities on Earth?

cyco.rEal

Well you are entitled to your opinions but you still haven’t answered some of my more important questions, I will ask them again:
Yeah, I'd like to hear this too if you don't mind.

TAIWAN---its always our pain in our hearts,would everyone do me a favor to talk about this not in a economical way!it has nothing to do with it!TAIWAN is TAIWAN!
its ours,its chinese!no matter what we have pay for TAIWAN's return,we swear we will get it back.


How about Mongolia? Their population is a lot smaller, and you had their land during the Qing dynasty. Why not just reconquer it right now? And what about your Ussuri territory, where the Russians built Vladivostok? Don't you want that piece of land back too?

"china",america's worse headache that remains untreated
where its gona end?
answear=chinatown traditional medicine!!!!!!!