Some Indian defense analyst predicts war between India and China in 2012.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124748777728332473.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

What do you think?

I'm rooting for China and India to win.

~String

There is always some idiot geek predicting any conceivable war at any given time without any regard to reality.

Bharat Verma (the supposed "defense analyst") seems to be a pro-military Hindu nationalist loudmouth.


From: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/blog/blog.aspx?id=2676


Lost in Neocon Translation
Judah Grunstein | Bio | 18 Sep 2008
WPR Blog

Ever wonder what would happen in an alternate universe where, instead of haunting Fox News studios, John Bolton had been born in India? Well, he'd probably be named Bharat Verma, and he'd probably be the Editor of the Indian Defense Review. And not only would he be glad about the instability threatening Pakistan's existence, he'd be actively encouraging it and lauding the benefits resulting from the "cessation of Pakistan as a state":


Should the name "Bharat" have been a clue about his mentality?

no i don't think that will happen

lol you cant tell shit from such predictions. the world is way too unpredictable.

It's happened before, back in the 1960's...there was even an article in Nat. Geog. about a war India and China had (I think it was in 1962) over some territorial dispute over the border right up north. The title of the article, I remember, was 'War on the Roof of the World'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War

I think a joint Indian and Chinese invasion of Myanmar is more likely than an India and China war. India and China don't need trouble with each other but they do both need to get control of natural resources.

Myanmar persecution of it's minorities and general nutyness give India and China the perfect excuse to invade while pretending to be doing service; You know, the USA's favorite trick. By invading jointly like they can pretend they are the "International community" that Condoleezza Rice was always talking about.

Why should India and China fight? India has little use for Tibet and China taking Assam would cause India to screw with China in anyway that they could for many decades to get revenge. Besides nations with nuclear weapons don't have hot wars against each other because nobody would dare to win the war out of the fear that the losing side would use Nukes.

Verma is mentally stuck in some early time.

Why should India and China fight?

For superiority in the Indian Ocean. A huge portion of China's energy and goods imports flow through there, and the straight of Malacca, and so they have been building up a naval presence there. China was the major backer and supplier of Sri Lanka in their recent war against the Tamils, has a huge port project in Pakistan, etc., and India has been making countermoves for a while now, such as expanding bases on Andoman and Nicobar (which could be used to block the straight to Chinese shipping), supporting Tibetan exiles/refugees, etc.

Neither side will risk an overt naval war so long as the US is in a position to decisively intervene on one side or the other.

For superiority in the Indian Ocean. A huge portion of China's energy and goods imports flow through there, and the straight of Malacca, and so they have been building up a naval presence there. China was the major backer and supplier of Sri Lanka in their recent war against the Tamils, has a huge port project in Pakistan, etc., and India has been making countermoves for a while now, such as expanding bases on Andoman and Nicobar (which could be used to block the straight to Chinese shipping), supporting Tibetan exiles/refugees, etc.

Neither side will risk an overt naval war so long as the US is in a position to decisively intervene on one side or the other.


Why should they care who controls the Indian Ocean as long as pirates don't control the Ocean.

Of course in the psychology of power accumulation and competition among powers no rational reason for aggressiveness is needed, only testosterone is needed. The PNAC crowd think they gain something for the USA by encircling China and Russia and threatening their shipping lanes but they are nuts which is why other Indians compare Bharat Verma to them and to John Bolton in particular.


Indian or China would benefit if the the other one of them was knocked completely out of the industrial age so that there would be less competition for importing raw materials and less competition for exporting goods and services. But I don't think India or China dream of attempting to knock each other out of the industrial age. Short of knocking one of them out of the competition they are better off cooperating to insure that they both have unrestricted access to global markets.

China is doing in Africa the same sort of thing that the USA and US corporations have done. This is Neocolonialism following the unwritten rules that the USA created after outright colonialism ended after WW2. India also might want to join this game as the competition for natural resources on the open market should be intense in the future and any market that a nation or corporation can rig in it's favor would be a great advantage.

It is also to the advantage of India and China to work together to insure that they both have as much right to screw Africans and Bolivians out of their natural resources as the Americans, Europeans and Japanese do.

Why should they care who controls the Indian Ocean as long as pirates don't control the Ocean.

In India's case, because they are surrounded by it, obviously. A hostile actor in control of the Indian Ocean would have them encircled and blockaded.

In China's case, as I just mentioned, it's because a huge amount of their energy and other imports pass through those waters. A hostile actor in control of the Indian Ocean could bring China's economy - and, with it, government - to its knees, simply be interrupting their energy imports. Try typing "China string of pearls" into Google if you want to know more.

In India's case, because they are surrounded by it, obviously. A hostile actor in control of the Indian Ocean would have them encircled and blockaded.

In China's case, as I just mentioned, it's because a huge amount of their energy and other imports pass through those waters. A hostile actor in control of the Indian Ocean could bring China's economy - and, with it, government - to its knees, simply be interrupting their energy imports. Try typing "China string of pearls" into Google if you want to know more.

Does China care about Sri Lanka or is it just weapon sales for money? Why should Sri Lanka have even needed Chinese help to defeat the Tamil separatists?

I distrust Neocon writers on China because China has been their great fear. In my opinion the Neocon (true old school pre-Bush Jr presidency use of the word neocon) intellectual's enmity for and assault on the Muslim world has been more of a tactical action to create political cover for gaining entry into the globally geopolitically important Middle-East than it was an actual fear of Muslim extremists. The Neocons thought they broke Russia and shifted their target to China. For this reason all Neocon (true neocons) writing on China should be as distrusted as Neocon writing on muslim extremists because the neocon core has no qualms about disinforming the world public in pursuit of their USA/Western/corporate/dominated global fantasy version of the next 100 years of human history.

I also distrust anything that Muslim nationalist/extremists write about India, Israel or the west. And thirdly I distrust anything that Hindu Nationalist write about Muslims, Sri Lanka or China. Fourthly I distrust anything that geeky high testosterone super hawks from any nation write that portrays the world as a more of a global battlefield than less war intoxicated analysts see the world. Fifthly I would distrust Sri Lankan nationalists to write accurately about the global relevance of Sri Lanka. Six I would distrust any overly patriotic and overly militant Chinese person to not want to exaggerate and show evidence for China's very real emergence as a global power.

If you remove those six categories of untrustworthy writers can you still find a Chinese alliance against India or a Indian intrigue against China? You certainly could in the 1970s but I think that is in the past.

Rationally I don't think India and China should threaten each other but history shows that national leaders are not rational. Napoleon never should have invaded Russia, there was no need, but he just could not help himself.


In India's case, because they are surrounded by it, obviously. A hostile actor in control of the Indian Ocean would have them encircled and blockaded.

China does face a potential hostile actor that does want to threaten their supply routes and that threat is from the USA because the Neocons could always rise from the ashes to take control of US foreign policy and the Neocons will never be fully removed from US foreign policy.





Try typing "China string of pearls" into Google if you want to know more.

Seems to be all writers with that Napoleoni/Neocon style mindset. The America versions of Bharat Verma mostly. This does not mean that the concept is not true but I think the target of China's string of Pearls is self defense (in the form of raising the cost of aggression) from those crazy Americans of the style that think invading Iraq and having American military bases all over the world is intelligent.

I don't think that China perceives India as a threat.

Does China care about Sri Lanka or is it just weapon sales for money?

China cares about having an island state in the Indian Ocean - strategically located near India - as their buddy.



Why should Sri Lanka have even needed Chinese help to defeat the Tamil separatists?

Because nobody else would sell them sufficient weapons or provide sufficient political cover in places like the UNSC. Russia helped out a bit as well, though.



I distrust Neocon writers on China because China has been their great fear.

Fortunately for me, then, I am not a "Neocon writer," nor do I get my information from them.


If you remove those six categories of untrustworthy writers can you still find a Chinese alliance against India

Yes, China has long courted Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Burma, Maldives and various others of India's neighbors. They occupy part of Kashmir, to boot.



or a Indian intrigue against China?

I guarantee you that China views India's support of Tibetans - and the Dalai Lama in particular - as an intrigue against them.



I think the target of China's string of Pearls is self defense (in the form of raising the cost of aggression) from those crazy Americans

Encircling India with naval bases is not a terribly sensible strategy for deterring a military based in Japan/Korea/Guam/Phillipines and allied to Taiwan.



I don't think that China perceives India as a threat.

Chinese policy towards India treats them as a potential peer competitor.

A base in Sri Lanka is on the passage to Africa, the Suez and the Persian Gulf. The USA has it's base in Diego Garcia and Bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Djibouti making the Indian Ocean more of an "American Lake than a "Chinese Lake". Some hysterical writer said China was trying to turn the Indian Ocean into a Chinese Lake.

The are questions about how long the American people will be willing to pay for the current level of globally omnipresent American military. Such a large military is definitely an economic burden if it can not be used to loot the world.

The informed Chinese will discover this for themselves eventually if China goes down that path just as the informed French, British, Russians and Americans have understood the burdens created by their nation's attempts to be dominant players on the global stage.