Is the US too big to fail?

More dollars are held outside of the US than in it. Actual green pieces of paper, hidden in mattresses, etc. Central banks (mainly Japan and China) hold 3.1 trillion in treasury paper. In 2004, the US debt (internal + trade deficit) will increase by almost 1.2 trillion dollars. If we take US population as 300 million, each man, woman and child’s share of the collective debt will INCREASE by $4,000.00 in only 2004. Actually more, because the cost of the Iraq war has not been honestly included or projected.

The increase in individual debt, mainly Americans buying ever more expensive houses with low cost loans, has grown as never before. (Seldom has there been a better example of “greater fool thinking” - borrow and buy, then sell later to a greater fool.) The US saving rate (fraction of income) is less than 1% . In Euroland, it ranges between 10 and 20% in Japan it is about 30%.

This house of cards is sustained by foreign confidence in US stability, but the recent rapid and strong increase in anti-Americanism, mainly associated with US policy / arrogance in conduct of Iraq war, is causing many foreigners to become more defensive, less willing to carry assets in dollars. This is why the euros is gaining strength. - The basic Euroland economy is weaker than that of the US. Thus, I think the answer to the initial question is: No, but it will be very painful for all when the central-bank, dollar-run starts. Because of this pain, neither Japan nor China will start it. Oil rich Russia might.

China and Japan’s energy needs might trigger this. If these dollar rich countries buy part of Yukos or develop Russia’s rich eastern natural gas and oil fields, putting even more dollars into Russian hands, Russia may have little choice. Even this does not occur, Russia can win “round two” of the cold war, if it chooses, after a few years more of high oil prices. I.e. start an “asymmetrical cold war” - dumping dollars to destroy an economy that runs on imported oil, now purchased by over valued dollars. MAD - mutual assured destruction - was symmetric and not as large a danger.

Another way to easily understand why collapse of the dollar is only a question of when, is to note that the generation in current control of US has been spending 30 to 40 % more than its income for years when borrowing is considered. That is, it has burdened the next generation with a debt they can not pay. They will rebel in some way, not use a significant fraction of their income to pay off the debt and enjoy a disposable income approximately half that that their borrowing parents. Demographics and Social Security problems are widely recognized, but may not be as important as “debt, well above the eyeballs” in people looking for a greater fool to buy their house.

Is the US too big to fail?

On the contrary I have no doubt the U.S will fall into a depression if they continue raising taxes and tariffs for war costs.

Actually if the US keeps on cutting taxes, and has free trade she will fall. If anything the taxes and tariffs would keep the US lasting just a bit longer. The US is in for a great depression or a really bad recession within the next 20 years I would surmise because her economy is fake, its all based on debt, and worst of all purely of consumption. A pure consumption economy doesn't make any money, and the only way then to buy things is on credit, and thus increase debt, and thus financial collapse. Since China is actually making money it is her that will continue to prop up the US by buying treasuries etc. Once that pot dries up where the money going to come from?

Yes but who is going to call in America's debt? No one methinks!

The answer is therefore - Yes The US is too big to fail! Well excepting natural disaster of course ;)

I am more worried about American consumers, also if the Chinese stop giving billions in "aid" then the US wouldn't be able to afford it's lavish lifestyle.

I am more worried about American consumers, also if the Chinese stop giving billions in "aid" then the US wouldn't be able to afford it's lavish lifestyle.

Suppliers are nothing without consumers. Americas demand for goods is hardly going to slow down is it? Suppliers are prepared to supply on a buy now pay later scheme because their lenders have to do the same and so on and so forth. The whole deal is based on trust irrespective of how much money there is floating about or not floating about!

Yes but who is going to call in America's debt? No one methinks!....

Nervous investors had already begun to do so or haven’t you noticed that they have bid up oil, gold and the euro, compared to a year or more ago. (“Full faith and credit” dollars are government debt as well as bonds, treasury notes, etc. They now buy less of other assets that one can also use to store wealth.)

The US will probably collapse as the USSR did for similar reasons. We have evolved from a fair approximation to laissez faire capitalism to a government controlled economy.

The zeal to avoid some unfair practices by big business has saddled us with a too powerful government. No matter who wins elections, there is a pay to play system requiring business to pay off politicians. The massive bureaucracy at almost every level of government keeps growing beyond control.

The US is not to big to fail; but the US is to big and to central to global trade to fail without taking the world economy down with it.

The US is not to big to fail; but the US is to big and to central to global trade to fail without taking the world economy down with it.

Hence my assertion that the US is to big to fail. Together we stand, divided we fall. Not to hard to figure out :rolleyes:

Hence my assertion that the US is to big to fail. Together we stand, divided we fall. Not to hard to figure out :rolleyes:

Yes, but... what consensus exists in the USA today?

This election is harbinger of things to come. A divided nation, with a replacement population.

Soon it will fall, as the Romans did, as the Greeks did, as the Indians did, when they lost consensus.

BYE BYE

Yes, but... what consensus exists in the USA today?

This election is harbinger of things to come. A divided nation, with a replacement population.

Soon it will fall, as the Romans did, as the Greeks did, as the Indians did, when they lost consensus.

BYE BYE

Hang on a minute. The question was "is the United States too big to fail?"! I said Yes. The United States is a country - I dont care who makes up its population - they will still be consumers within the US. Pay attention!

Population change relates to consensus and thus what is expected of the government.

There is no such thing as ''to big to fall'', the bigger they are the harder they fall.

Also certainly no nation-state will last forever, but I hope we it more evolves/mutates than *falls*. But, fact is none of us know what the future holds.

I think Gravity is right, size does not help. The bigger they are, the bigger the hole that they will leave...

Suppliers are nothing without consumers. Americas demand for goods is hardly going to slow down is it? Suppliers are prepared to supply on a buy now pay later scheme because their lenders have to do the same and so on and so forth. The whole deal is based on trust irrespective of how much money there is floating about or not floating about!

Your logic is quite amusing if not absurd. Think, foreign people make some goods and Sell those goods for the green American $paper$. Americans make little goods worth of buying for those $. Foreigners hope that one day a miracle will happen and their $ will buy something (American). More likely, foreigners think that they will get rid of $ to some other foreign fools before its value will collapse.

ON the other hand, Americans cry FEED ME (for free essentially) or everything is DOOMED (i.e. you stupid foreigners will have no jobs without FEEDING me precious). Isn't that absurd? It's like a bum sitting in the center of a city and yelling "Give me stuff people, I'll pay you in cool pieces of yesterday's paper. If you'll not provide stuff for my cool paper pieces, you are DOOMED, you'll all have no jobs."

Voluntary slavery for the American consumption FOREVER anyone? Obviously, people are not that stupid yet.

I would understand, if Americans have used their "free feeding time" to build some industries, develop economy etc. Alas, only Wal-Marts, McDs and housing speculations are on the horizon.

Sumeria, Babylon, Cushitic Egypt, Persia, Phoenicia, Harappan India, Greece, the Olmecs, Rome, Byzantium, the Mongols, the Maya, the Moors, the Aztecs, the Incas, Spain, Holland, Hindu India, Austro-Hungary, Czarist Russia, the Ottoman Empire, Germany, Japan, Britain, Soviet Russia.

No nation is too big to fail.

Oh wait. China isn't on that list yet, still going strong after 6,000 years. The biggest nation ever to exist.

Time will tell.

China was conquered by the Mongols, entered a state of decline and didn't catch up with the rest of the world until the 20th century.

So yes, of course, America won't be great forever.

War for profit alway always always fails.

Roman, your last statement is very questionable. War for profit usually pays well (to the winner). Obviously, nothing lasts forever, war gains including. Thus, temporality of everything cannot be used to claim that "something" always fails. "Something" always does not last forever; but people do not live forever. In the terms of the finite human lifespans, conquests pay handsomely to the winners.

The very way that we tend to talk about "America Falling" shows our egotism. When the Soviet Union 'fell' -- its not like everybody died, far from it. It has just changed. I think we Americans are so self-centered that we think if we are not the richest and most powerful military state in the world . . . that we would somehow be doomed.

There is a good database out there where you can sort and search through the thousands (it says 5000+) surveys done around the world that try to measure happiness (looking at health, depression, suicide, self description of happiness, etc.) And the U.S. is not even in the top 10 by most measures. And while 3rd world countries don't beat us . . . lots of very small industrialized nations do.

So, if the current U.S. political/economic system were to collapse and/or mutate. With all that we have in this country, couldn't we still be happy? Or even happier? Is the American psyche such that if we are not #1, we'll just go crazy? (Or crazier I should say).

Chinese curse: let you live in the times of changes.

Transformations are not deadly (and may even lead to something better) but the very same transformations are curse on the people living in the times of trouble.

BTW, hundreds of thousands folks in the former USSR died as a direct result of USSR's failure. Only in Russia, 250,000 or so of homeless children are roaming the streets. How many of those will not live to see 21st birthday? Collapse of a state isn't sugar.

Sure, a war can be profitable, but constant wars are not. Far from it, in fact. Half of Fraggle's list collpased due to overexpansion and war.

Empires built on constant growth never work out: you just can't expand constantly forever.

I completely agree with Gravity, though. Empire collapse, but that doesn't mean when the US goes, it will be all doom and gloom. Just... different. For instance, the UK is no longer on top, nor if France or Spain or Russia or Germany, and 4/5 of that list enjoy a really high standard of living.

I wonder how much of it is just up to chance.

the bigger they are the harder they fall.

Everytime I read cliches and idioms on sciforums, I just wanna to puke. Haven't we outgrown these unoriginal remarks?

The US is on its way down a incline. Things have 'improved' over the past 3 generations, getting easier as we capitalized on the development of other nations. This process will slowly reverse itself as we start to reach an equilibrium with the developing nations. Things will slowly improve for them, and slowly worsen for us. To say that we will collapse overnight is a huge fallacy. In the long run, this is a boon to everyone.

Think 'Le Chateliers' not 'jack and the beanstalk' when considering the flow of capital. It can't teleport itself across the pacific before flowing through the hands of beaurocrats.

Roman empire failed after its citizens have lost any desire to serve in army and fight in ANY war. Decadance killed more empires than war. Overexpansion is dangerous only when Empire has lost the will to fight (which is natural occurence).

Strangely, the UK people I know expect nothing BUT further drop in their living standards.

Equilibrium with other nations is highly unlikely to establish itself on the "American" level. Humans need 5 planets Earths to live as an average American does. My guess, globalization will not live much longer than cheap oil.

uhuhh..thats why the american way of life is experiencing a decline. We will have to learn to live with fewer resources, and I consider this a good thing. Fewer starving africans and fewer gross, fleshy Americans.

A nice documentary on the subject is called 'The End of Suburbia'. You can probably snag it off the net.

Edit:
This will be the new Renaissance(if we can avoid war). Just wait and see..

uhuhh..thats why the american way of life is experiencing a decline. We will have to learn to live with fewer resources, and I consider this a good thing. Fewer starving africans and fewer gross, fleshy Americans.



It may mean just more starving Americans and the same number of starving Africans too. To live with fewer resources, Americans need to invest huge resources in "reconstruction" of the country. I can just only guess how much $/resources one needs to transform suburbia in livable&enjoyable$resource frugal places to live. I guess it's rather impossible.

We hold these truths to be self-evident: That all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness; that, to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed; that whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.

I could, perhaps, make a decent argument that the US has already failed.

But I can't be arsed right now.
Dee Cee

"self-evident truth" = My fists are larger than yours to prove my truth better. "Self-evident"=I have no logical arguments.

So give me a logical argument that demonstrates "all men are created equal"

Some things are simply a matter of faith.
Dee Cee

Correction: a matter of faith and fists. Your faith means nothing (in this world, at least) if you cannot defend it.

Your faith means nothing (in this world, at least) if you cannot defend it.

Err If I believe in something I have no need to defend it.
Believing it is enough for me.

Why get into a fight over a matter of opinion with no objective basis?
Seems like a waste of energy to me.
Dee Cee

OK, DeeCee, I have taken you as a slave. I'll be generous, I'll allow you to have faith "in freedom" (if you'll be a nice slave, of course). As long as you'll have your faith you'll be OK, right?

It's very substantial matter. There are people out there who fool themselve into believing that "self-evident" truths exist on their own.

Your logic is quite amusing if not absurd. Think, foreign people make some goods and Sell those goods for the green American $paper$. Americans make little goods worth of buying for those $. Foreigners hope that one day a miracle will happen and their $ will buy something (American). More likely, foreigners think that they will get rid of $ to some other foreign fools before its value will collapse.

ON the other hand, Americans cry FEED ME (for free essentially) or everything is DOOMED (i.e. you stupid foreigners will have no jobs without FEEDING me precious). Isn't that absurd? It's like a bum sitting in the center of a city and yelling "Give me stuff people, I'll pay you in cool pieces of yesterday's paper. If you'll not provide stuff for my cool paper pieces, you are DOOMED, you'll all have no jobs."

Voluntary slavery for the American consumption FOREVER anyone? Obviously, people are not that stupid yet.

I would understand, if Americans have used their "free feeding time" to build some industries, develop economy etc. Alas, only Wal-Marts, McDs and housing speculations are on the horizon.

Forgive me I thought we were talking about economics which is concerned with the flow of money and resources, not your personal disgust of a nation as you see it ("free feeding time"). America is a huge resource all by itself. Will it fail? Well define failure for a start! Failure in your eyes has something to do with your view of America's greed and a need for punishment to befall them. This is nothing short of the mind of a 911 bomber and has nothing to do with economics. Do you even study economics?
But if you want to talk human science (you are in the wrong forum for a start) then again your reasoning is flawed i.e. you are saying that the common American spirit is "Give me stuff people, I'll pay you in cool pieces of yesterday's paper. If you'll not provide stuff for my cool paper pieces, you are DOOMED, you'll all have no jobs."
I tell you the truth, I know many Americans both rich and poor and none of them wish to see anyone else suffer. They just get up each day and do what they have to. There is no malice, no greed just a need to survive and provide for them and theirs. Go and find a forum you are more comfortable in!

Forgive me I thought we were talking about economics which is concerned with the flow of money and resources, not your personal disgust of a nation as you see it ("free feeding time"). America is a huge resource all by itself. Will it fail? Well define failure for a start! Failure in your eyes has something to do with your view of America's greed and a need for punishment to befall them. This is nothing short of the mind of a 911 bomber and has nothing to do with economics. Do you even study economics?
But if you want to talk human science (you are in the wrong forum for a start) then again your reasoning is flawed i.e. you are saying that the common American spirit is "Give me stuff people, I'll pay you in cool pieces of yesterday's paper. If you'll not provide stuff for my cool paper pieces, you are DOOMED, you'll all have no jobs."
I tell you the truth, I know many Americans both rich and poor and none of them wish to see anyone else suffer. They just get up each day and do what they have to. There is no malice, no greed just a need to survive and provide for them and theirs. Go and find a forum you are more comfortable in!

Where did you find my disgust with the nation? where did you find mentioning of greed in my message? I was speaking "figuratively" (trying at least).

I do know that nobody gives away $ to the Americans (majority of them) for free. I know that they work for their $. I also know that they consume (as a whole) more than they produce. Also, I know the they (as a whole) run trade deficits for >20 years. As a whole, they pay cool "pieces of yesterdays" papers for their extra consumption. Also, I know that from Econom 101 trade deficits are OK (capital flow etc, everything looks legit).

Foreigners produce goods, Americans make government bonds and $ to pay for the goods. If anything is to be disgusted with here it's foreign stupidity and greed. i.e. foreigners work for nothing instead of working for themselves. They have slums at home BUT they work for "cool pieces of yesterdays paper" in order to buy USA government bonds, in order to provide USA with more "cool pieces" to buy more of their stuff.... (endless repetition)??? It's really stupid (from common sense stand point). However, everything is legit from Econ101 standpoint as long as there is zero sum of in and out capital flows.

how long can it last? No other country could run trade deficits for 20 something years (cause there is "no free" stuff in this world). How Americans are going to pay for their 2 decades long overconsumption? How are they going to balance their deficits? Wal-Mart? McD? RustBelt? My guess Americans are not going pay back to the most of outsiders period. It's impossible. If dollar panics will begin; USA will declare existence of two dollars - American and International, in order to preserve internal market from dollar influx. Thus large chunk of old debt will be erased. Who'll be stupid then? Americans who consumed or foreigners who worked for "cool pieces of paper"? The answer is obvious.

We have this awesome military that can destroy any nation. We can cut off the oil supply of any nation. Nations are sitting on huge piles of American securities that will become worth less if they let America fail. If the American consumers can't keep buying the worlds trading patterns will collapse. Will the world dare let America fail or will they buy our junk debt forever?




Producing the energy equivalent of a gallon of gasoline in the form of ethanol would cost $1.50 to $3.50 depending on whether you are listening to agrabusiness or petroleum industry "experts"/spinners. Add 40 cents to 80 cents a gallon for distribution. Gasoline's real cost to acquire and refine for Americans is 60 cents to $15 a gallons to produce depending on which spinner you are listening to. Ethanol may degrade your cars engine if you believe the petroleum industry. Ethanol production may consume more BTUs to produce than it produces and therefore not be global warming friendly. Still, after "peak oil" (which will be soon) ethanol will become cheaper than gasoline. This means land will be diverted from food production to fuel production and the worlds excess labor must starve (until we perfect algae and fish farming) so that the moderately privileged may drive SUVs.

Where did you find my disgust with the nation? where did you find mentioning of greed in my message? I was speaking "figuratively" (trying at least).

I do know that nobody gives away $ to the Americans (majority of them) for free. I know that they work for their $. I also know that they consume (as a whole) more than they produce. Also, I know the they (as a whole) run trade deficits for >20 years. As a whole, they pay cool "pieces of yesterdays" papers for their extra consumption. Also, I know that from Econom 101 trade deficits are OK (capital flow etc, everything looks legit).

Foreigners produce goods, Americans make government bonds and $ to pay for the goods. If anything is to be disgusted with here it's foreign stupidity and greed. i.e. foreigners work for nothing instead of working for themselves. They have slums at home BUT they work for "cool pieces of yesterdays paper" in order to buy USA government bonds, in order to provide USA with more "cool pieces" to buy more of their stuff.... (endless repetition)??? It's really stupid (from common sense stand point). However, everything is legit from Econ101 standpoint as long as there is zero sum of in and out capital flows.

how long can it last? No other country could run trade deficits for 20 something years (cause there is "no free" stuff in this world). How Americans are going to pay for their 2 decades long overconsumption? How are they going to balance their deficits? Wal-Mart? McD? RustBelt? My guess Americans are not going pay back to the most of outsiders period. It's impossible. If dollar panics will begin; USA will declare existence of two dollars - American and International, in order to preserve internal market from dollar influx. Thus large chunk of old debt will be erased. Who'll be stupid then? Americans who consumed or foreigners who worked for "cool pieces of paper"? The answer is obvious.

Like I said, the debt will not be called in :rolleyes:

Psychedelic Chemistry,

Herbert Stein's Law: "Things that can't go on forever, don't". Therein lies the flaw in your position that America will not fail. America can not run a trade deficit forever. Foreigners can't buy our debt forever. It is highly improbable that we can slowly walk the dollar down to levels at which America could be competitive without a the pressure to avoid currency losses eventually setting of a stampede to exit the dollar.

Psychedelic Chemistry,

Herbert Stein's Law: "Things that can't go on forever, don't". Therein lies the flaw in your position that America will not fail. America can not run a trade deficit forever. Foreigners can't buy our debt forever. It is highly improbable that we can slowly walk the dollar down to levels at which America could be competitive without a the pressure to avoid currency losses eventually setting of a stampede to exit the dollar.

All I have said is "The debt will not be called in" and for this reason America will not fail. The word 'called' is highly important here. America knows its debt and will do everything in it's power to ensure it is not left accused of renaging on their debt because of nationalistic pride. America will attack other countries for oil and the like under the justification of setting a nation free in order to pay for its debt. America is too big to fail.

peace

c20

Suppliers are nothing without consumers.

And consumers are nothing without money, and that’s exactly what’s happening in the US. I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding what Globalization is doing to the US. The US is supposed to collapse economically so that new even larger markets are created. The Chinese by the end of this decade should surpass the US economically, India by the end of the 2010’s. These economies will become the new consumer based economies. Of course as of right now exporting and servicing the US is key to their economic growth, but as their relative wealth increases the relative importance of the US decreases. This is almost exactly what happened vis-à-vis the UK and the US, remember the biggest investor in the US was the UK, and the UK was to the US what the US is to China. History is indeed repeating itself.

Americas demand for goods is hardly going to slow down is it?

Of course it is, debt accumulation can only go on for so long. Consumer confidence has been going down, inflation is up, and as a result the American consumer will have even less money to spend. America’s demands for goods will eventually dry up.

Suppliers are prepared to supply on a buy now pay later scheme because their lenders have to do the same and so on and so forth. The whole deal is based on trust irrespective of how much money there is floating about or not floating about!

For now…yes. Let’s look at the larger picture shall we? There is a fundamental shift in the world economy into East Asia, primarily Zhongguo, and that’s why I am learning the damned language.

The current account deficit is running at $34billion , foreign purchases of the huge US debt are falling rapidly , the US stockmarket is heavily over-valued,and the dollar is uncertain. This War on terror is one last attempt to order the world entirely around the requirements of US monopoly capital, before it can long hope to do so. In other words this is the last throw of the dice before the US economy goes into serious decline - as evidenced in the dramatic falls of the stock markets , the collapses of major corporations , the ballooning cost of prosecuting this war on Terror and other acts of economic vandalism such as the tax cuts for the rich have indicated . This means for America controlling the oil and fossil fuel riches in the Mid East . It means attacking Iraq, installing a replacement Saddam Hussein and taking over the world's second-largest source of oil. It means surrounding a new economic challenger, China, with bases, and intimidating the leaders of its principal economic rival, Europe, by undermining NATO, and setting off a trade war.

hey hey hey, I know the USA economy is a bit odd, and things arent that good, but you underestimate the unreal nature of economics and the stock market. If you can fool as many people as possible into thinking things are going ok, as well as ensure those who have a big say will be well enough looked after, collapses can be managed and staved off.
As for the rest of it, a lot of it is likely possible, but what i would like to know is who actually thinks this up and plans it, if it is correct.

Well Guthrie you should read the latest Buttonwood column, for you see Buttonwood is seeing red in the future of the world economy, something I have been stipulating for a while now:


Oil for future delivery has also been rising, suggesting that not only do consumers think it very unlikely the price of oil will fall sharply but that it may indeed rise further. The price of petrol and other oil derivatives is also going up, in part because the price of crude is rising, but also because there isn’t enough refining capacity. That these increases will have a bad effect on the world economy is not in doubt; the questions are what sort of bad effect and how big.
------------------------------------------------
Worries about the effects of slower growth and higher oil prices on corporate profits have started to spook stockmarkets. The Eurotop 300 index of European shares is now down by some 4.5% from its high this year; America’s S&P 500 is down around 5.5%; and Japan’s Topix has fallen by almost 12%.
-----------------------------------------------------------
The dollar has also been falling out of favour in recent days. This week, it reached its lowest level in eight months on a trade-weighted basis, according to the Fed, and is within a whisker of an all-time low against the euro. Foreign-exchange traders seem to have discovered what everyone else already knew: that America’s huge and growing current-account deficit is unsustainable, and that two things are required to correct it. First, Americans must save more (which will slow growth, perhaps sharply); and second, the dollar needs to fall more than it has done already—perhaps a lot more.
---------------------------------------------------------
The dollar looks in danger of plunging, the price of oil continues to surge, gold is going up and world growth is slowing. Oh, and America is about to hold an election that could create as much uncertainty as it removes. Small wonder that there are a few growls from financial markets. Buttonwood has a nasty feeling that something worse is in store.
--------------------------------------------
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3327594

As do I Mr. Buttonwood, if you are a avid reader of my posts you would note that all the things stated in this column has been stated by myself countless times, and America needs to reform the way it works in order for it to survive, she cannot continue consuming without making any money. America needs another recession to get things right, firstly if (god wiling) Bush were defeated the Kerry administration needs to tame the budget deficit which in the long run will not be able to be supported. The “war on terror” is indeed more harm then good to the US economy as it consumes too much and causes there to be a serious imbalances to occur. America was in very good shape prior to the Bush tax cuts which has not stimulated enough demand or investment to offset the fall in income. Also the American people are not saving anything and so it expects the savers of the world to pay up. America is living a economic lie that will implode, on this day in 1929 the market crashed I wouldn’t be surprised if it were to happen again.

Well, if you say the market is goign to go down, you have a 50% chance each day of being correct, so you'll strike lucky quite a few times.

But broadly I agree that things wont really get any better and we'll end up with at least some kind of depression. Certainly, the company I am now working for is expecting a great year next year, because the high tech silicon crystal production companys we supply are also expecting a good year. However, none of them are at all sure about what will happen after next year.

And on a related note, heres a piece from the Asia times, which looks about correct, though I have a grudge against von mises lovers. (mainly because they worship the market and dont look at the human costs of it.)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FJ30Dj01.html

Well now that the US is going to collapse economically eventually because she is pure consumption, the Asian economies now are trying to reallocate her economies to consumption instead of investment, and exportations. Well China is trying to do that, although that does take a long time to accomplish you develop your own domestic markets does take a lot of investment unto itself. With the Chinese economy expected to surpass that of the US within this decade the fortunes of the economic world will shift. My fear is whether or not this Chinese growth will be largely from within or geared to the outside world. My hope is that by the end of this decade China will have a trade deficit but a current account surplus, and as a result be able to substitute the US to a certain degree. If you are to look at China’s trade surpluses they are going down, and that’s a good thing imo:

Trade Surplus
2001: 25.9 billion
2002: 30.3 billion
2003: 38.7 billion
2004: 23.5 billion*

I suspect that it will be getting smaller as a result, so it should be for the good of the world economy. Also the Japanese imports are increasing as well due to higher demand which is due to higher demand in China, which is due (to a large extent) to demand in the US. I suspect that the Chinese will support the US as long as it is dependent on exports to drive economic growth, especially exports to the US. Really China only runs a trade surplus with the US, and the Netherlands the rest mostly are in surplus with China. In order for this capitalist economy to work there has to be a loser and right now it’s the US.

It's very substantial matter. There are people out there who fool themselve into believing that "self-evident" truths exist on their own.

Self-evident truths can only appear as convictions within one's self
When another challenges something you know inside yourself to be true your first reaction is to defend yourself. But you are right dixonmassey, a wise person overlooks the insult!

peace

c20

Self-evident truths can only appear as convictions within one's self
When another challenges something you know inside yourself to be true your first reaction is to defend yourself. But you are right dixonmassey, a wise person overlooks the insult!

peace

c20

So, as long as I believe that I have been abducted by extraterrestials it's REAL and TRUE?

Secondly, the expression "self evident truth" is mostly used to justify some "practical" matters of life (like separation from England), which was hard to justify with logic (who wants to use greed as the reason?), etc.

I feel oppression of USA government. I would gladly separate 50 acres of land from USA to create one family republic. I feel that a right for one family republic is "self evident truth". Too damn bad, I am not "strong" enough to defend that truth.

Thus, any self evident truth without power backing is not true at all. In practice, you will have whatever rights your society by tradition grants you. Also, internal faith (you were refering to) and self-evident truth are somewhat different.

Citation:
Success is the sole earthly judge of right and wrong.

nice post Billy T

I think that the other worldplayers know, that if they completely pull the plug on dollar (and the deck of cards), they will find a nuke in their backyard soon....

Reasons will be found, God himselve will justify the war....

When Saddam decided to trade his oil-for-food in euros, this was the exact moment he found Abraham tanks in backyard....

Is the US too big to fail? I sure hope not.

But then, let me be totally open here, just for once. I'd rather have the US take over the world (as England sort of did with the colonies), say, than somebody else, like some fanatic-run bumblef*ck society. (Really, I had to squeeze that in somewhere.) If England had colonized South America, I don't think they'd have done to it what the Portuguese did. If it has to be dog-eat-dog, I'll take the more genteel dog any day.

Oops. I'm off topic. Sorry - delirious.

im assuming that america will fall within 20 years unless they get a genius who the population would trust to the end of the Earth as their president

once they do fall, im assuming that China or Japan will take over. This will raise a bad situation. It will be the first time ever, that the msot powerful country in the world will have a nuclear arsenal smaller then another country (in this case, much smaller then America and Russia)

i think that America will use the military power that it should retain for a while after its money is gone to gain power, and the newest super power will be unable to help - America can just threaten them with Nukes.

Citation:
Success is the sole earthly judge of right and wrong.

Sadam had some well nice palaces. Did his success mean that he had been juded as good? That must mean that he is bad now right?
Success has nothing to do with right or wrong. One could be a successful theif and live the life of luxury, Ronnie Biggs the train robber for example.
Right or wrong depends on who you are offending and more specifically how you are offending them. Trespasses are self-evident to the one being trespassed against, forgiving the repentant is all one can do in the hope that when one trespasses against another, you too will be forgiven. We all cause people to trip up now and again. We all hurt people. Forgiveness is the key and forgiveness is the opposite of judgement. Forgiveness can only take place when the trespasser is repentant though. If the trespasser is not repentant then it is up to the one who has suffered the trespass to decide whether they forgive that person in their heart or not. If they forgive then the person is forgiven, if they do not then the person is not. Simple as.

peace

c20

Sadam had some well nice palaces. Did his success mean that he had been juded as good? That must mean that he is bad now right?
Obviously, Sadam was NOT successful enough or he would be enjoying his palaces right now. When he was indeed in power, significant portion of Iraqi people did respect (at least) him. More than that, children of those people were taught to love Sadam. Children of their children would be taught to love Sadam. Endless repetition until the real historical Sadam would be substituted with a holy idol who did no wrong in people's memories. Mongols love and are proud of Chingis Khan. Large chunk of people living in the former USSR still love Stalin. Uzbeks are proud of Tamerlan, etc.

Sadam is an innocent todler compared to those men. Had he succeeded in wars with Iran&Kuwait&USA, descendants of modern Iraqis would certainly thought of his doings as righteous and necessary. BUT, Sadam is a LOSER, thus, the winner and his puppets will write the new Iraqi history where Sadam will look like a blood thirsty maniac. Yes, Sadam is wrong because he's a loser.


Success has nothing to do with right or wrong. One could be a successful theif and live the life of luxury, Ronnie Biggs the train robber for example.
Really? Winners write history. I meant "winners" not in the narrow $acquiring$ sense. Winners teach&brainwash future generations to their liking. You think of the right and wrong as apples growing on a tree, which grow by itself. You think of the right and wrong as of something given from the above (well you are a Christian after all). However, had you been born in a canibal tribe you would have had no problems with hunting and eating human flesh. Examples of the relativity of the right and wrong are countless (starting from the Bible). Society you live in TELLS you what is right and what is wrong. Societies wrap those rules in a religious wrapping, as a rule.

Sure, there are few rebels in every society. However, rebels need to win in order to impose their "truth" on a society. If a rebel keeps rebelion to himself or lose, his "truth" will die with him. the next generations will be taught about the bestiality of the loser. That is why Muslim and Christian countries will remain Muslim or Christian until the next major upheaval. Parents&country one has been born in are the major reasons why one becomes Muslim or Christian. Don't you find it suspicious that religious preferences depend mostly on the blind chance (i.e. birth place)? Where is absolute right and wrong?

Right or wrong depends on who you are offending and more specifically how you are offending them. Trespasses are self-evident to the one being trespassed against, forgiving the repentant is all one can do in the hope that when one trespasses against another, you too will be forgiven.

Obviously, you are not aware that humans are easily programmed animals. If one is cruel enough, one may easily grow a human robot, which will think that all things master is doing are right, because it's master's will. Just remove a person from society as a child and create whatever your fantasy wishes. More than that, there are/were numerous totalitarian sects which can program grown ups with ease.

We all cause people to trip up now and again. We all hurt people. Forgiveness is the key and forgiveness is the opposite of judgement. Forgiveness can only take place when the trespasser is repentant though.

Canibals cannot be repentant because eating human flesh is as natural to them as eating animal's flesh is natural to you (I assume you are not vegeterian). Only, after non canibal society will conquer canibal tribe and will impose its will&truths, children of the children of the human flesh eating canibals will detest canibalism (and repent after genetic memories would cause them to eat somebody from time to time). Winner society makes right and wrong. Read history. Examples are abundant. think what would have happened to Brittain's rights&wrong if Hitler would have won.

I started this thread about four years ago - long before any one (me included) had heard of "subprime mortgage collapse"etc, but I clearly saw it coming, just as I now foresee an unavoidable depression in US and EU (and did comment on in other posts more than two years ago.) Here is the last paragraph of the OP:

"Another way to easily understand why collapse of the dollar is only a question of when, is to note that the generation in current control of US has been spending 30 to 40 % more than its income for years when borrowing is considered. That is, it has burdened the next generation with a debt they can not pay. They will rebel in some way, not use a significant fraction of their income to pay off the debt and enjoy a disposable income approximately half that that their borrowing parents {had}. Demographics and Social Security problems are widely recognized, but {that} may not be as important as “debt, well above the eyeballs” in people looking for a greater fool to buy their house."

Even Fanny May and Freddie Mack have run out of "greater fools" it now seems (except the US taxpayer, via GWB's Treasury). Oil up the dollar presses, we need them 24/7 now.

The sub prime mortgages were high risk loans. The same as giving out high interest credit cards to people who already went into collections on other cards.

As far as investing and the economy- All economies are manipulated anyway. Good or bad really makes no difference because the major players just move their money someplace else.

FBI looking in to IndyMac Bank

By Lara Jakes Jordan

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Associated Press has learned that now-defunct IndyMac Bancorp Inc. is under investigation for possible fraud in connection with home loans made to risky borrowers.

It was not immediately clear how long the FBI's probe of the bank has been ongoing. The investigation is focused on the company - which was taken over last Friday by the FDIC - and not individuals who ran it, according to a law enforcement official who was not authorized to speak publicly about the investigation.

IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.

The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.
------------------------------

No body talks about Economy is in the crapper and people are losing jobs left and right....

People gotta have homes.

A total collapse is not likely, but a slow decline seems almost inevitable. I cannot imagine the US using its nuclear forces to blackmail the rest of the world into supporting it.

It is hard to predict what will happen when Social Security, medicare, & pension benefits cannot be paid without crushing increases in taxes. At the national level, Social Security is bankrupt. All of its assets are in US Government bonds, which make it look solvent on paper. Unfortunately, when current FICA deductions are not enough to underwrite the promises, drastic increases in FICA deductions and/or income taxes will be required. The burden on those working would probably be intolerable.

One possible solution would be to cease making cost of living increases in benefits, allowing inflation to make the promised payments not worth anything & capable of being covered without drastic increases in FICA deductions and/or income taxes.

I wonder if there would be some type of tax payer revolt. If intolerable taxes are levied, it would not seem worthwhile to work for a taxable salary. An underground economy might develop or the slow decline might accelerate due to few people working.


At the state & local level, pension benefits and salaries promised to unionized civil servants will become difficult (impossible ? ) to finance out of current taxes and it might not be possible to borrow enough to cover the promises. Unlike the federal government, a local government can declare bankruptcy, allowing it to start over with renegotiated pensions & salaries. BTW: I am astonished at allegedly intelligent people who claim that Sociial Security is solvent, but who ignore the problem of finding the funds. I suppose that the Government could merely print enough money to cover the promised payments, resulting in inflation like that which occurred in Germany after WW1.

Saner people during the FDR reign advocated requiring that Social Security be run llike an insurance company annuity. This would put funds into mortages, stocks, corporate bonds, et cetera. Under such a plan the power of compound interest & increases in the value of stocks would easily result in very generous pension payments to retirees (much higher than the current payments). It would also provide investment capital and/or funds available for mortgages & loans to busineses.

Unfortunately, politicians do not plan farther ahead than the next election, and voters are too dumb to force them to do otherwise.

BTW: If GM or some other large company proposed funding pensions in the same manner as Social Security, it would be called a Ponzi Scheme & declared to be illegal.

People deserve for the country's demise. Consider this. There are 47 million people without health insurance. People who have homes are those who work for the government and those who have small business that did not go out of business. Rest are at risk. So, our brand of capitalism does not work very well. Yet these people who are distressed for the last year could have voted the bums out. But the bums are still in politics for over 20 years getting their pocket filled. Something is wrong.

Interesting

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9162

Economic depression in America: Evidence of a withering economy is everywhere

People sleeping in car in santa barbara (cnn.com)

http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/05/19/homeless.mom/art.sleeping.cnn.jpg

A total collapse is not likely, ...Why do you say that? The remainer of your post mentions only part* of the reasons why total collapse is unavoidable and not one thing supporting the idea that total collpase is "unthinkable."
---------
*No mention of "high cost energy," "unsuitable suburban infrastructure," "dropping home equity," "purchsaing power of salaries falling," "good jobs disapearing or converting into Mac Jobs," "internet allowing foreigners to do all information related jobs," etc.

Closely related to the one item you discussed (Social security is funded only by government promisses)b is that the baby boomers are now terminbating their years as the largest tax payers (AT THEIR PEAK EARNING LEVELS) and converting to be consumers of savingings, not net savers any more. Saving is where the real capital for invsetment comes from to promote growth. Growth on borrowed capital is not as procuctive. The aspect of the baby boomers retiring is probably more imprtant than the fact they will be collecting Social Secrity.

Everything else is solvable except lack of regular jobs. People are sleeping in cars in a parking lot...that has not happened in such large scale since 1929. I have been watching senate hearings on CSPAN regularly...but not a single person talks about job loss (perhaps because everybody who comes there has a job). The politicians do not understand that for every major manufacturing activity, the economy grows richer 4 to 6 times, the opposite is true when they move to China. We shrink and they gain.

The department of commerce says we export a lot too. Yet there are so many empty containers that came from overseas, in most ports that they do not know what to do with them. I wonder if the commerce department is padding the numbers or something!

In Africa, when they kill an elephant for tusks, they usually slice the legs - it takes a few days for the mighty elephant to die....

Guess you were not around for last recession.

I probably ignored it since I was making twice then....:D

I wonder if mourners of "manufacturing" jobs ever tried one. Those jobs suck in more than one way, period. Sure, 72k/year union job at GM plant may sweeten the pill, but in the south, manufacturing jobs pay $8-10/hr. WalMart is a better "career" option, all things considered.

Nob habla Inglese at this plant.

http://i116.photobucket.com/albums/o36/tym44/off%20road/Famousmanufacturingjobsarestillarou.jpg

If Chinese are stupid enough to work for green paper, let them.

Introduce factory work, and farewell joy, health and liberty; farewell to all that makes life beautiful and worth living.

The Chinese are not stupid. They need U.S. consumers to build up their industries...then they will be in a position to dump the green back. U.S. consumers have been supporting a lot of countries including Germany ($94 Billion), UK ($57 Billion) and France ($42 Billion) by importing stuff...it will be interesting what happens when we can not buy any more...

there is a perfect 100% chance of the US failing entirely...

period...

anyone who thinks differently is lost in ignorance...

an interesting question would be "how long will it be until?"...

some of the posts in this thread are ample proof of the truth in this quote...


"Most of us spend too much time on the last twenty-four hours and too little on the last six thousand years." - Will Durant

here is an example of thinking of the last 6000 years and thereby gaining perspective...

Sumeria, Babylon, Cushitic Egypt, Persia, Phoenicia, Harappan India, Greece, the Olmecs, Rome, Byzantium, the Mongols, the Maya, the Moors, the Aztecs, the Incas, Spain, Holland, Hindu India, Austro-Hungary, Czarist Russia, the Ottoman Empire, Germany, Japan, Britain, Soviet Russia.

No nation is too big to fail.
excellent...

Assyria, Hittites, Medes, Medo-Persians, Zulus, Tartars(tatars), Vikings, Huns, etc. etc. etc...

If the top 30% lose their asset value 50%, that would not be so bad for them. But if the middle group lose 50%, they will be in poor house....but life will go on minus death of children and old people.....

But the hyper power days are over...just like Russia...

Too bad Bin Laden wanted to take down USA economically...and it is coming to pass....

I am not sure what is meant by those who think that Total collapse of America is highly likely or inevitable. I am not sure I understand how soon they expect it to occur.

To me Total collapse translates to well over 50% of the population homeless and having problems obtaining food.

England & Rome were included in a list of collapsed empires. The British Empire might be gone, but the British Isles, Canada, India, Austrailia are not in dire straits yet. Rome declined over a period of several hundred years, starting with the loss of the more distant parts of the Empire. I would not apply the term Total collapse to either of those empires.

As I posted previously: I expect decline but not Total collapse.

The interesting speciulation is the matter of USA fragmenting into smaller political entities, and/or an undergound economy rdrastically reducing the power of the federal governmenbt.

Holly crap....BillyT started this thread and what I read in New York Times....

The NationToo Big to Fail?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/weekinreview/20goodman.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Freddie and Fanny are commonly considered to big to fall for reasons stated below and Congress just passed bill to delay their collapse. Thus adding to debt exposure, but not to actual the debt IF the housing defaults were terminate. (Fat change of that, as the default rate continues to accelerate). This will hasten the day when the US COLLAPSES.

"If the U.S. government walks away from Fannie and Freddie, these overseas investors will worry that the U.S. government will walk away from the other U.S. debt they own and from the dollar itself. There's already a suspicion among overseas investors that the U.S. government will try to solve its dual problems of a massive government debt and a massive trade deficit by letting the dollar tank. On the other hand, if the U.S. government does back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it runs the danger that overseas investors will simply add Fannie and Freddie's $5 trillion in mortgages and guarantees to the $9.5 trillion the U.S. government already owes. By that calculation, a bailout would increase the debt level of the U.S. by 53% overnight. ..."

FR0M: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/TheHugeThreatToTheUSEconomy.aspx?page=1

Article also notes that the major holders of US debt (China, Japan, oil exporters) are already trying to get out. This 53% overnight increase in the US obligations will not go un-noticed.

Isn't the US the same country that kept telling all other countries [China, Japan, India] that they should not prop up failing corporations because it was bad for "free trade"?

Instead of viewing Fannie & Freddie as too big to allowed to fail, perhaps we should view them as too big to save.

The damn politicians, esprecially the liberal types, create huge entiies like Social Security, Fannie, Freddie, et cetera. They do not realize that large bureaucracies with federal backing tend to be come very inefficient.

If the normal incurance & banking industries had been allowed to undersrite mortgages, none would be as big as Fannie/Freddie. If one or two failed, it would have been no big deal.

Nobody seems to know or remember that trhe first really coercive monopolies were the Western railroads. The Sherman antitrust act (circa 1990) was partially intended to regulate those Western Railroads.

How did the Western railroads become coercive monoplies? There were created by government loans & legislation. The federl government wanted to devlope the west faster than private enterprise was willing to finance expansion in that direction. They created the monster and then had to pass regulation to control it.

Related item:

http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=1938522&postcount=121

Instead of viewing Fannie & Freddie as too big to allowed to fail, perhaps we should view them as too big to save. ...That is probably wiser than what has been done. To make an alalogy: If track start got gangreen in one leg, he might try to save it and thus cause his death. US was a "track star." US is unwilling to accept the change it its capacity. US is in denial.

I think Fanny & Freddie should have been broken up - perhaps one for each of the regional FED districts and place under their control. Also the wealth of their multi-million dollar salary CEO's should be conficated and distributed to the share holders they did not serve.

if Fannie May and/or Freddie Mac fail...

our economy would collapse... 'the giant pool of money' would collapse in many ways also... that's the entire wealth of the world btw - the 'pool of money'...

the only people buying any property of any type after that would be those who could pay cash upfront in full, no mortgages of any type would be available, even on car loans... most likely there would be no credit of any type, period...

of course this would only be a problem if the nation as we know it actually survived the meltdown without some form of catastrophic war, or a civil unrest that destabilized the nation...

when you talk about Fannie May and Freddie Mac you are talking about Trillions, with a capital T, Trillions of dollars, approx 5.7 Trillion to be exact... our government could not bail that out under any circumstance... period...

if they fail you can kiss the fucking US of A goodbye... and when our trade deficits, and the people getting rich off of them while slowing destroying our nation, disappear... the rest of the world can kiss life as it knows it goodbye too... especially China, we are funding and financing both the growth of the economy and military of our own next superpower enemy...

Here is some rules of thumb from my engineering economics class.

Using a 5X multiplier for lost revenue on trade deficit and ignoring a base of $200 Billion deficit, here is what the GDP we lost since 2000:

2000 ----> $1180 Billion
2001 ----> $1050 Billion
2002 ----> $1350 Billion
2003 ----> $1675 Billion
2004 ----> $2255 Billion
2005 ----> $2830 Billion
2006 ----> $3085 Billion
2007 ----> $2950 Billion
2008 ----> $3000 Billion (Estimate)

With this much loss...I do not think we can recover....anytime soon....

hahaha I read this title and started laughing!:D

Holly crap....BillyT started this thread and what I read in New York Times....

The NationToo Big to Fail?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/weekinreview/20goodman.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Wow that's scary.

if they fail you can kiss the fucking US of A goodbye... and when our trade deficits, and the people getting rich off of them while slowing destroying our nation, disappear... the rest of the world can kiss life as it knows it goodbye too... especially China, we are funding and financing both the growth of the economy and military of our own next superpower enemy...I say let them fail. Life on Planet Earth is not going to end. Revolution happens every now and again. The fat wealthy morons who inherit wealth need to be kicked aside to allow the young smarter and stronger to the top.

I say let them fail. Life on Planet Earth is not going to end. Revolution happens every now and again. The fat wealthy morons who inherit wealth need to be kicked aside to allow the young smarter and stronger to the top.
so they can become fat wealthy morons... lol...

have you ever read 'Animal Farm' by George Orwell?... i'm guessing "no"...

I say let them fail. Life on Planet Earth is not going to end. Revolution happens every now and again. The fat wealthy morons who inherit wealth need to be kicked aside to allow the young smarter and stronger to the top.

The fat wealthy morons are the one that will survive since they have more money than basic living requirements. It is the middle class that work for the capitalists that is disappearing. These days , it is better to work for the government and NGOs....Capitalism is dead for the workers....

I wonder if mourners of "manufacturing" jobs ever tried one. Those jobs suck in more than one way, period. Sure, 72k/year union job at GM plant may sweeten the pill, but in the south, manufacturing jobs pay $8-10/hr. WalMart is a better "career" option, all things considered.

Nob habla Inglese at this plant.

http://i116.photobucket.com/albums/o36/tym44/off%20road/Famousmanufacturingjobsarestillarou.jpg

If Chinese are stupid enough to work for green paper, let them.

Introduce factory work, and farewell joy, health and liberty; farewell to all that makes life beautiful and worth living.

A Nation can't live by WalMart alone; the USA needs to produce something to exchange for all the Chinese made stuff on the WalMart shelves. The Chinese won't loan the USA money forever.

The USA has a million unemployable macho men in prison. The Chinese factory workers and Mexican illegal immigrants have the jobs that these guys need in order to not return to jail when they are released. American employers don't need to hire screw ups and screw ups can't can't transform themselves into real men if they are not given 2nd 3rd and 4rth chances to become productive members of society.

Screw ups can't marry the mothers of their babies. The government ends up paying for McHealthCare for the poor because the government is not willing to tell the poor to go crawl into a corner and die and yet the government is not willing to pay for real healthcare. The Mexican illegal immigrants also get free ER McHealthCare under false names when they get sick doing the low wage work that American born screw ups used to do for lower middle class wages.

All this Chinese merchandise and cheap Mexican labor is improving the standard of living for today's upper middle class but it will hurt their children.

If a person killed, assulted, robbed in America, after the jail sentence, because he can not find a job, he is allowed welfare and food stamps. But if the same person was convicted for the possesion of even small quantity of drugs, he can not get welfare or food stamps for one year. So, to feed himself, he must rob or deal with drugs again.

Is not that wonderful....

Under U.S. law convicted felons lose their eligibility to apply for Medicare and Medicaid. Housing one prisoner costs a state between $18,000 and $31,000 annually, $33 per day for the average prisoner and $100 per day for an elderly prisoner. Most DOCs report spending more than 10 percent of the annual budget on elderly care. State governments pay all of their inmates' housing costs which significantly increase as prisoners age.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisons_in_the_United_States

This country will fail from greed even though we have all the money. Let that be known to all who do not share to the grateful for the grateful work and the greedy steal. It is not stealing to feed ones self or ones family, for that is happening. But they say there is enough food for all, obvesually there is not. And as so, we have over populated nearly 10 fold of what we should be at. We are growing ignorant, obease, greedy. What more could there be. We kill thousands and thousands more die from hunger. Do everyone a favor, abort more babies, it is not wise for any man to bring more than one child into this world. Keep that in mind for you familys of 6. I can only pray that the worlds population drops to 500 million tommarow or grave things are in store.

according to some prophecies, the US is too big to fall... so... it will divide into 5 pieces.

SO what's happening with Fannie Mei and Freddie Mac?

"... Fifteen months ago ... an Asian Development Bank audience in Kyoto squirm{ed} and fidget{ed} as the chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC gave his bleak, contrarian opinion that the global financial system was about to hit a wall. ... his direst predictions about a once-in-a- lifetime bust in the U.S. economy come ever closer to reality ...

How many times in the past year did we hear people say ``this credit crisis is containable'' or ``the worst is over'' or ``subprime-loan problems won't spread to other asset classes,'' and the like? {But} Roubini didn't waver, and he took considerable flack for it. ... Perhaps Roubini, {being} profiled last week by the New York Times, and Whitney means the worst really is over. Of course, they might say it's just a matter of public perception catching up with the reality -- a financial system in tatters.
One reason to think Roubini won't be proven wrong is his argument that the problem isn't the subprime mortgage market -- it's a subprime U.S. financial system. Fixing the problems sending financial contagion around the globe will require tough decisions in Washington and reforms in Wall Street's securitization system. And that's hardly happening.

How far Wall Street's reputation has fallen since the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. was revealed by the Aiful Corp. saga. Japan's biggest consumer lender by assets threatened to sue Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in June after analyst Walter Altherr called Aiful "arguably insolvent'' in a report. Lehman retracted the report earlier this month, yet not before Japan's investment community had a good chuckle. The fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, with a share price down 79 percent this year, calling another institution shaky?

Talk about the proverbial pot calling the kettle black. ..."

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aETnD_QSZYWU&refer=home

"The bigger they are, the harder they fall." is the answer to the thread's question. It is all happing on the schedule I predicted 15 or more months before Roubini did, but he heads a big investment firm and I am just a retired physicist living in Brazil. (where the economy is growing and will not go down the tubes with the US and EU as Brazil has everything China needs.)

Is the US too big to fail?

You mean like the Roman Empire?

Some say Rome fell when it was split into an eastern and a western empire ruled by separate emperors. The eastern half became the Byzantine Empire, with its capital at Constantinople (modern Istanbul). The western half remained centered in Italy. Many say the Fall was an ongoing process lasting more than a century. Since Rome still exists, it could even be argued it never fell. Some prefer to say that Rome adapted rather than fell. A related question, one subject to even more discussion is:

Why did Rome Fall?

There are adherents to single factors, but more people think Rome fell because of a combination of such factors as Christianity, decadence, lead, monetary trouble, and military problems. Even the rise of Islam is proposed as the reason for Rome's fall, by some who think the Fall of Rome happened at Constantinople in the 15th Century.

Causes of the Fall of Rome
Here are some of the explanations for the Fall of Rome:

Decay (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_2.htm)

Financial Problems (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_3.htm)

The Dole and Barbarians (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_3.htm)

Economic, Military, Gradual (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_3.htm)

Christianity (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_2.htm)

Vandals and Religious Controversy (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_2.htm)

Division of the Empire (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_4.htm)

Lead (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_4.htm)

Hoarding and Deficit (http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/romefallarticles/a/fallofrome_3.htm)

What would be our reasons?

It was meant to be a rhetorical question.:wallbang:

...and here I thought, you are writing a thesis...my bad!!!!