Besides China other countries we should be worried of are Iran and maybe Pakistan could be potential enemies. Although they aren't large in military might neither was Germany before world war II and yet they built up a world class army in a matter of 5 to 10 years. And they were in the middle of a huge depression at the time. so with the help of russian nuclear scientist they may be very dangerous
Border disputes with China are a worry, since the world would look to the United States to solve the problem; however, I think that the Chinese know that the economic ramifications of a full-scale war would shatter their ability to maintain any sense of political stability at home, or abroad. We might tangle with the Chinese from time to time over various islands or territories in that region, but the possibility of a massive war seems relatively low. There is much more money to be had in aggressive trading than in Imperial expansion. Besides, how long can "Capital Communism" hold out? And what would China expect on a conquest? With Australians keeping peace in East Timor, and various tiny countries giving bodies and ammunition to feelgood wars, one and a half billion Chinese doesn't seem like an overwhelming number.
Pakistan's problem seems to be India. What we need to watch for there is a massive flare-up of a fifty-two year old border conflict. Personally, I think this whole problem could be solved if Pakistan and India were to just lob their nuclear missiles at London, but realistically I would say that we can expect yet another UN-brokered agreement to avoid the next potential World War.
Iran--indeed, the entire "Middle East" is a bad situation. The combination of religion, property, and economy might create an unstable situation as regards Israel, but that whole region will come to a head if the Iraqis succeed in their south-country genocide and dam up the rivers. And here is where I expect UN-brokered peace agreements to fail. It will take many things to quell the issues of a potential Water War. Economies must grow, borders must become secure; of course the world also would want to consider repeated, small-scale military interventions until the Muslim nations either settle their 1300-year old game of King of the Hill with rifles, or get the idea that their God has better things intended for them. We can maintain an illusion of stability as long as we keep economy respectable there, and as long as we can reenforce the notion that there is a much better world and universe to take part in than crouching behind treadworn tires shooting a machine gun at children.
Certainly the conditions are there for various nations to become military powers almost overnight. But the "world community" seems to like to check those developments. It seems these conflicts are either getting less troublesome, or else we're getting better at it. Korea was ... Korea. Vietnam went badly. All went to hell in Central America, but then we see limited success by the Americans in Panama, and suddenly the world's on our bandwagon again. Because they turned out for the Gulf War, Rwanda, Kosovo, and now East Timor. I mean, if we keep going at this rate, how long before the Baby Blues are infesting Belfast and Derry to keep peace between two factions of British subjects?
But I think the world has learned at least something from its bigger wars in this century ... it seems much more acceptable to step in and create smaller amounts of carnage in order to stave off the grander chaos later. So I think these nations you've listed, as well as several others--who will be the dominating force when Africa begins its reconstruction?--all hold the potential to cause large headaches in the world body politic, but this is one place where I think the world conscience is starting to tune into common sense. It is entirely possible that we won't have another massive, world-stability-threatening conflict until some extraterrestrial force invades.
"Let us not launch the boat until the ground is wet." (Khaavren of Castlerock)
I haven't heard about it in the news here, but i read Norwegian news daily:
The military regime of Pakistan went ahead and ousted the government there saying that it was enough corruption allready and now they are holding on until the right people with the right democratic minds comes in place. Pakistan has allready withdrawn their troops from Kashmir, and basically told India that they wanted to end that crap.
Things change fast. I agree with Tiassa. I do not think we will see a devastating war between nations anymore, but maybe mobilze when there is an extraterrestrial event nearing..
02-18-06, 04:49 PM
Like 9/11? (http://www.sweetliberty.org/fbimegiddo.htm)