don't know if it has any basis or not, but i just want to get your opinions on this and hopefully fuel a discussion or something (or total agreement or total disagreement).

The Fed Officially Kicks Off the Next Recession (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4759.htm)


It is official. A recession is coming. How do I know? Because this week new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave an official warning to bankers about commercial real estate loans. That is always the kickoff to a recession. It is the starter's gun, the national anthem before a ballgame, the opening hymn at a church service. Here is how it works. The Fed has three official tools to control the money supply: Setting reserve requirements (telling banks how much of their deposits they cannot lend. The higher the reserve requirements, the less loans, the less money creation by the economy). The second tool is open market operations. Here they set the amount of money in the system by buying or selling securities. Third is setting the discount rate, the rate of interest banks must pay to borrow money at the Fed. Theoretically, the higher the rate, the less money banks will borrow, the less they have to lend, and the less money that is created by the banking system.

However, there is a fourth tool, a stealth tool, which has more power and impact than the other three. It is called the Federal Reserve Bank examiner. He/she is the person who goes into a bank about once a year and decides which loans are good and which are bad. Based upon their holy edict, a loan is classified in one of several categories which determines how much money the banks must set aside from earnings to reserve for possible losses. It is completely an estimation game. So the rules can and do change, based upon the whims of the examiner, taking his marching orders from the Fed Chairman. If the Fed wants the money supply to expand, then Fed examiners come in with reasonable standards for review of loans, and classify those loans with a general leaning that they will be repaid according to terms. Thus banks do not have to reserve as much for possible estimated losses and are in effect not discouraged from making more loans. When the Fed wants money supply to grow, aggressive lending standards often get passing grades. That's when you business people will see your friendly bank commercial lender more often, jawing you into that expansion project you've been thinking about, inviting you to golf outings and ball games. They want more loans. They need your expansion project.

However, once the Fed Chair sounds the alarm about commercial real estate loans, it starts an entire chain of events that ultimately and unequivocally leads to economic recession. Here's what happens. Out of the blue (that seems to be a favorite modus operandi for all Fed operations) those friendly back-slapping Federal Reserve examiners (not really, they are never overly nice -- okay I've met two or three out of a pool of three hundred -- Mike, Eddie, Eric, you know who you are and I know you read my stuff) show up with a scowl that droops like the golden arch. They ask for the files, a table, an outlet, a coffee pot, and the key to the little boys and girls room. About two days after they arrive, the banker knows something has changed, something serious, and he gets this knot in the pit of his stomach that will last for about three years. Examiner Margo asks for a meeting with banker Joe. She brings her supervisor to raise the fear level of the meeting. The Bank's President, Joe, brings his top commercial lender for protection of his fanny, and that lender brings his junior lender who will ultimately be the sacrificial lamb and get the ax should things blow up.

Bottom line: Margo feels that a good commercial real estate loan, paying on time, plenty of collateral, doesn't quite throw off enough cashflow on its financial statements in file, and is now suddenly rated below satisfactory. Not quite doubtful. What this means is the banker now has to set aside 20 percent of the loan in reserves for possible losses. That reduces income, and he has a big one-time hit coming to earnings this quarter. The banker defends the loan with dexterity -- he has to fight back, but cannot tick them off too much as they hold all the cards -- but the discussion is going nowhere. Finally Margo's supervisor, Lead Examiner Harry, whose head hasn't moved an inch -- just his eyes, rolling back and forth from speaker to speaker -- drones out, "This loan is less than satisfactory," then gets up and goes back to his room full of tables, laptops, and loan files. This goes on for days. Toward the end of the examination, about a month later, they bring out the heavy artillery. More senior examiners from the regional office arrive and the meetings get larger and longer as satisfactory loans have now been declared doubtful, and doubtful loans are now downgraded to total loss. They especially target commercial real estate loans. First ones to go. Again, nothing regarding the loan itself has changed, the game is one of judging the subjective quality of the loans, and for no apparent reason, the subjective quality of myriad loans has remarkably deteriorated. The banker is left with a list of suddenly crappy loans in his portfolio, and a required loan loss reserve that is about 80 percent higher than he has on the books. He is then told in a wrap-up meeting that because of this "loan quality problem" in his bank, his bank's overall rating has been dropped from a 1 to a 2 or a 2 to a 3 (banks are rated 1 to 5 with 1 being the best. Ratings below "2" get bank presidents fired. Ratings below 3 get the Chairman of the Board of Directors removed, with lots of fearful warnings to the Board of Directors of the bank about Director liability and civil money penalties). This rating is confidential, with criminal prosecution should the banker reveal it. In fact everything in the examination report is confidential, with criminal penalties should he reveal its contents. There is no appeals process.

Needless to say, after the examiners pack up their newspapers, laptops, and locked suitcases, the banker and his crew of commercial real estate lenders are left in shock. The Board of Directors gets a visit about a month later from the Head examiner and the top Regulatory folks at the regional Fed office. If they bring someone from "Washington D.C.," then the bank President and Senior Lender are toast. The Board of Directors politely listen as the Head Examiner and his boss cite every blemish and foul found in the place with smiles intermittently flashed with icy stares, a game of intimidation. Warnings are given, then the Fed folks get up, make sure they shake everybody's hand in the room as if its "business, not personal," and leave.

At the end of the day, a junior lender gets canned, the Board steps up the heat on the President to do something about this, and banker Joe and his senior lender immediately decide to stop making commercial real estate loans.

For the economy, this means a credit crunch has started. Expansion stops. Willing buyers can no longer obtain financing to buy properties. This reduces demand for properties at the exact same time bankers are encouraging these suddenly classified borrowers on their books to sell their properties and pay back the loans. This increases the supply of properties for sale at the exact wrong time, lowering prices.

But the black hole is just getting started -- just beginning to suck the economy into the abyss. What I outlined above is merely round one.

About six month later, property values have dropped from this excess of supply and lack of demand due to the curtailing of bank commercial real estate loans. This means the collateral values of the loans on the bank's books have declined.

Another Fed examination is scheduled, they are back in, and with the battle well under way, it is time for these public servants to start shooting the wounded. They are fully aware that property values have dropped, and -- ignoring the fact that they caused them to drop -- they march to the file room, grab their favorite previously classified loans, and get to work. They assign the most experienced examiners to review the classified loans while they send the rookies to find potential problems among the previously good loans. But the action is with the classified bad boys.

That loan they rated less than satisfactory because of cashflow problems the last time they were in has now deteriorated to doubtful because of the compounded affect of collateral undervaluation. That means instead of setting aside 20 percent of the loan amount into the reserve for possible losses, banker Joe must now set aside 50 percent, another big hit to earnings. He had promised the Board of Directors that last year's one-time hit for potential loan losses would be a one-time occurrence. He realizes that is not the case, and begins to wish he had become a UPS delivery man.

At the end of the day, the bank's rating has dropped, the Board is scared about Director liability, and Joe is pulling out every political favor he's accumulated among a majority of the Board to keep him around for one more year. He agrees to sacrifice the bank's Senior Lending officer, who has served as a shield the past year, not making loans, but sitting in his office, ready to be ejected for the good of banker Joe's considerable stock options portfolio and other bennies that come with holding on to a bank presidency for a decade or so. The senior lender is replaced by a credit hack, someone with no people skills, adept at strong-arming bank borrowers into paying back the money. The goal is to shrink the loan portfolio by not making new ones, using the normal cashflow from payments to reduce outstandings, and to sell at a discount or coerce partial payments from existing loan customers who were rated unsatisfactory by the Federal Reserve's finest. This means lawyers get involved, lots of lawyers, skilled at scaring borrowers into "working out" loan repayments with this new nasty bank lender. This means less money is available for potential buyers of property in the economy, more distressed sale supply hits the market, and real estate values fall even further.

It is about now that everyone recognizes a recession is well underway, led by a real estate collapse. The truth of the matter is, the rules were changed by the Fed and nobody was told until it was too late, and the economy plunges. Voters scream, a few politicians get tossed, and the phrase "credit crunch" becomes a darling of the media. It takes action by the President of the United States to haul in the Federal Reserve Chairman, and explain to him the reality of the reappointment process every four years. Suddenly, at the next bank exam, a new friendlier, examination teams shows up, drinks more coffee, has a few extra newspapers tucked next to their laptops, are asking for fewer files, complain they have to rush to another job in two weeks so won't be there as long as the last time, and leave with little fanfare. The bankers are told in the wrap-up meeting, that they've improved their loan quality, the bank's rating is boosted one grade, and all is well with the world -- end of recession.

On March 8th, 2006, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced at the Independent Community Bankers of America conference, "The rapid growth in commercial real estate exposures relative to capital and assets raises the possibility that risk-management practices in community banks may not have kept pace with growing concentrations and may be due for upgrades." Fed examiners are warming up their laptops. The barbarians are headed for the gates.

The Fed announced again on March 9th, with no palatable explanation, that they will no longer publish M-3 as of March 23rd. While they claim that M-3 is useless, in the blurb on their website, the fact is banks are still reporting all the data on their Call Reports used to calculate M-3. The Fed has not eliminated the unique M-3 components from the Bank Call Reports.

Why don't they want to be transparent with the most important statistic, the very measure of why they were established by a minority of Congress during a late night session back in 1913? Because they cannot wait to pump money to high heaven like some sort of fiat tower of Babel.

M-3 was increased by $28.3 billion last week, a 14.2 percent annualized rate of growth. Over the past 2 weeks, M-3 was boosted an amazing $81.9 billion, for an annualized rate of growth of 20.7 percent! Over the past 8 weeks, M-3 is up 129.6 billion, an 8.2 percent rate of growth, and is up a whopping $249.7 billion over the past 12 weeks, a 10.7 percent annualized rate of growth, a $1.0 trillion annual expansion.

What is happening here? How does this reconcile with the Bernanke announcement that bank commercial real estate lending will be curtailed?

There are two ways for the money supply to grow. First is through the bank lending function. The more lending, the more spending, the more bank deposits, which is at the core of the money supply definition. The Fed has apparently decided to slow the velocity of money creation by slowing or shutting down lending. However, the Fed knows it needs money to buy financial markets and monetize our debt. The lending function is too much out of the direct control of the Fed. In other words, money is created that way, however the Fed doesn't get to decide where that money goes. It is going to businesses for expansion and jobs, etc... No, the Fed wants to decide where money goes. So it will replace money created through the lending function with money created from thin air by the Fed itself. The way for that electronic money to enter the economy will be from the Fed directly buying something, or lending money to someone. In effect, the Master Planners will decide where fresh money goes. They will control more of the spending. But they cannot let us know this. Because it would be too easy to prove they are doing this if M-3 remains transparent. You would simply compare commercial and consumer loan data to the M-3 figures. If we saw debt declining but M-3 rising, voila, we would clearly see the Fed is directly pumping and funneling that money someplace, which would beg the tough question, where? You can bet most honest, patriotic, free-market Americans would not appreciate the answer.

I think the following quote from your post is backwards (false - cause and effect reversed):

"About six month later, property values have dropped from this excess of supply and lack of demand due to the curtailing of bank commercial real estate loans. This means the collateral values of the loans on the bank's books have declined."

Where did this "excess of supply and lack of demand" come from? Referrence thinks:

"the curtailing of bank commercial real estate loans" but that will depress the rate of new construction, not much effect the "demand" for existing structures (that is just a trade of names on the title, not change in the money supply I.e. Mr A's money is after the deal Mr B's money) The result of tight money may make it hard to finance new homes or find buyers for your old one, but is exactly opposite to what is stated.

I.e. with demand for structures unchanged (or even increased as without new construction some prudent people and firms will try to secure their foreseeable future needs now) and normal population growth, some structures lost to new roads, age, parking lots, etc, (a reducing supply) the demand to supply ratio will INCREASE, not decrease, and the property values will INCREASE, not "drop" as reference incorrectly states. The position of the reference is plausible only after the economy has tanked, not the cause of it tanking. Yes, value of property can decline, but people only sell at a loss when they must: lost their job, can not pay the mortgage, etc. (an economy already tanking)

Also, while interesting, and no doubt true, that bank examiners can affect the interest rates, (fourth tool of the Fed.) most banks do not want to take on risky loans, even if bank examiners did not exist.

I believe it is still true that bank owners/ partners/ some investors are on the hook for defaulting bank's debts, to some extent. I.e. the worst that can happen to a non-bank investors is to loss all their money when the firm goes "belly up", but bank investors are liable for the customers losses in some states at least. (This is probably not of much importance today, even if still true, as the FDIC, is up to the limit, the first payer of "last resort" if your bank should go "belly up.")

People interested in this area may want to look a new thread "Yield Curve Shape - What it tells & WHY?"

Like so many good "gloom-and-doom" stories, this one contains some elements of truth - but then goes on to distort the facts in order to make things appear much more sinister than they really are.

Yes, there are these creatures known as bank examiners. And yes, they do go into banks unannounced and sift through the records. But that's about where the truth in this story stops. Their real function is to check for fraudulent banking and bookkeeping practices - NOT to "rank" individual loans per se. Some loans may indeed be looked at in order to determine if there is fraud involved, but ONLY if there are other indications or reasons to suspect that might be the case.

Barring four-fold increases in energy prices, the most powerful sign of an oncoming recession or downturn is an ongoing, determined and vigorous program of interest rate cuts; this was the case in early 89 and in late 00/early '01.

Thanks to pre-emptive government action, each recession/downturn since the first of the Oil crises has been milder than its predecessor, the economic cycles have been getting less violent, and 9-11 made no difference to that trend. In fact it served to confirm it; the recession that it should cyclically have triggered, given its timing, has in fact turned out to be simply a period of slower growth, much less painful than outright recession.

I don't see any trouble anywhere on the horizon, quite the opposite; the US is going ahead at full steam, Japan is finally pulling itself out of a 13 year slump, the other asian tigers of course are unstoppable and will likely be joined by India by next decade; even Europe is showing some signs of flowering in Spain and the UK.

Jaybee.

...Thanks to pre-emptive government action, each recession/downturn since the first of the Oil crises has been milder than its predecessor, the economic cycles have been getting less violent, and ...You may be correct. I will only comment on the most recent Fed action. - When the internet bubble burst, the Fed feared it might spread to entire economy and reduced interest rate to the lowest in many (30 or 40?) years. This made it possible for many refinance their house and many of those with new cash in the monthly accounts did not do something "foolish" :rolleyes: like save or invest it - The ran right to Wal Mart etc. and spent it, which is just what the Fed intended and the over all economy did not tank.

Some medicines are worse than the original disease, and this low interest rate binge may have been one. The Fed is trying to get rate back to a "near neutral point" and may succeed, without destroying the economy in the process. However, with the equity many had in their homes having been spent on consumption, it is not clear to me that the US economy is healthy and will have milder cycles as you are suggesting. I think instead, now that individual debt, like government debt, is at all time high and individuals are now in negative saving mode, a day of reckoning is soon at hand. I.e. the next cycle could make the great depression of 1929- 1936 look like a few ants at and otherwise perfect picnic. We will just need to wait and see. Certainly, as I have been noting in "China overtake US?" thread, the US is not only loading China's "economic gun" (with dollars), but also tying its own economic arms behind its bank with stings of debt on every level.

Just thank whoever you think you should, that neither the rest of world nor (not yet) Chinese population can absorb the productivity of China's growing economy. China is working on this too as it helps Brazil et.al. to export more and grow economically so they, instead of US, can absorb this production.

I don't see any trouble anywhere on the horizon, quite the opposite; the US is going ahead at full steam, Japan is finally pulling itself out of a 13 year slump, the other asian tigers of course are unstoppable and will likely be joined by India by next decade; even Europe is showing some signs of flowering in Spain and the UK.

Jaybee.

i find it quite interesting when people who live in the usa seem to think everything they do will affect `me'

practically nothing i have here-has anything to do with the usa

i drive a toyota,watch tv on a awa,record things i missed on my tv on a sony vcr(probably because im in my toyota...listening to jjj on the sony cd player)

i work on german cars every day-from ww2 times to the latest
for the cheapest to the most expensive

ie vw to mercs

restoring splitties or fixing kompressors

the only thing that affects me is us dollars per barrell

as per usual going up up and up

luckily `some' people(google mercedes,bmw hydrogen powered cars..)

are starting to ignore the `baby chucking a temper tantrum' usa

imho


about bloody time too

i must admit-i always wanted to own a rhd 59 caddy
but that very very unlikely to happen lol

apart from that-very little of `americas dream' imparts on me in any way

so to me-the usa is kinda a `hmm i like this a little bit'
but when the country `right' next door gets pissed off at us because the monobrow
`bush wanna be' pisses them off

then excuse me if i dont see the usa in such a friendly light no more....


http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/24/news/papua.php


gee we get to be the `deputy sherriff'

now we got 80 million pissed off indensians 4 hours away....


exsqueeze me-i think anything i see from a `septic tank' ill do the exact opposite now thank you very much....

so to summerize..

economically-nothing i own was built by americans
well you(or kontuncyfried lol) got from me a whole 4 bucks and some odd cents in the last year..
so thats not totally true..



buuuuut

politially speaking
we now have around 70 million pissed off indonesians just over the horizen

thanks to your politics

imho-i change my stance




yes the americans have built something....

a hatred of anything that even remotely seems american worldwide


shame the rest of us have to cop the flack from it tho

The US economy has consistently outpaced predicted growth numbers in every category over the past 4 years. The unemployment rate has fallen, wages are on the rise, net inflation is below zero, and the GDP is growing at a teriffic 4.5% per anum. The Fed has done a fine job of using market forces to exert a stabilizing control over the money market without interfereing in natural tendencies and necessities. It is the model followed by every modern government financial system in the world.

The only real barometer of overall market health is the consumer confidence index. Artificial efforts to guage the sustainability of an economy will always be pocked with failures and inaccuracies. This is the nature of the markets, themselves. However, just as large-cap stocks (Microsoft, Coke, Pepsi, Sony, etc.) are considered more sustainable, "safer," and more survivable than their small-cap counterparts, so too can a consumer-confident economy be considered consumer-safe. And the index is, today, almost perfect.

...The Fed has done a fine job of using market forces to exert a stabilizing control over the money market without interfereing in natural tendencies and necessities. It is the model followed by every modern government financial system in the world.

The only real barometer of overall market health is the consumer confidence index. Artificial efforts to guage the sustainability of an economy will always be pocked with failures and inaccuracies. ...And the index is, today, almost perfect. The Fed did not invent "inflation targeting" - In fact, it is only now admitting it may be the best approach to managing an economy. The Fed's charter is a mix of mutually conflicting objectives (full employment vs. low inflation, etc.) Thus it will always be a set of judgment calls, subject to misreading of the "tea leaves" of current economic statistics.

As far as consumer confidence is concerned, being "almost perfect" indicator of the near term economy, it might be instructive for you to look at the level of consumer confidence in the "flapper era," say June of 1929.

Billy,

Excellent observations. I agree almost 100%. The U.S. is in a very precarious situation. I believe that the fed is attempting to let some air out of the housing bubble while hoping not to pop it entirely. With high oil prices, obscene debt levels, and falling dollar, a day of reckoning may be at hand. The ingredients are there, but the equities market is fairly well contained (relatively) due to advancing interest rates. I am not certain of what would need to happen to precipitate a meltdown.

... I am not certain of what would need to happen to precipitate a meltdown. Nor am I, but I would bet (at even odds) the trigger is Chinese. (I do not necessarily mean the mainland. What happens on Taiwan could be very important.)

Taiwan trigger:
The defeated president of Taiwan was (or still is?) on the mainland with about 150 Taiwan business leaders, collecting reduced import tariffs, new direct airline flights, loans for expansion on the mainland, etc. They all want peaceful reunion along the "one nation, two {economic} systems" line, like Hong Kong et. al. have.

The current president of Taiwan, who won a very close election by having himself shot in public parade,* is strongly for declaring Taiwan is an independent nation, and has the support of the farmers etc, small owner-operated businesses, etc. who fear competition from the mainland.

If Taiwan does declare independence, the mainland will take military action. What the US will do is anyone's guess, but if US blocks China, China will buy oil with its dollar hoard and oil will go to at least $150/barrel in a few days. The US will lose the confidence that holds the dollar up and in less than a month Wal Mart stores will be closing etc. for lack of customers.

The US economy is 100% dependent upon these consumers, who are already deep in debt. They will not be able to buy the gas needed to drive to Wal Mart from their suburban homes etc anymore even if some credit card is not already "maxed out." etc.

The speed with which the modern world can adjust to financial changes is almost unbelievable. - In two months or less, most Americans will be losing their homes to the banks, out of work, etc.

Mainland trigger:
China is finding its population will no longer work for very low wages and political slogans. They want to buy at least a motor bike, if not an apartment and car. More of the production must be distributed to them and less exported. China can no longer compete with Vietnam et. al. in the low-cost low-value- added items. In fact, China is already the world's largest producer of computers, digital cameras, cell phones & TVs. Starting to export cars, produce (with some help from Brazil's Embracer, No. 3 or 4 in the world) airplanes, launch men into space, even now allowing the US's Geological Survey to down load Earth surface photos as the US satellites for this are not working well. (China and Brazil were partners in the construction of this satellite that has been providing high-quality Earth resources data only to C&B since 2003 until last month.)

In short China is transforming rapidly into a high value added producer instead of a low cost assembly line and will sell less to Wal Mart, etc. and more domestically.

This coupled with GWB's follies, including one to come soon in Iran, will result in oil being sold in Euros and not only will China not be earning as many dollars, China will see less need to hold those it already has, and certainly will not want to buy any more treasure notes (US promises) etc with them. Already most central banks are quietly getting more of their reserves out of dollars.

To finance the continuing and growing US deficits, steadily higher interest rates will be required, but the "next one is probably the last" view will continue to be the "official hint", for years! When the mainland population is rich enough to absorb (along with Brazil et. al. that are now, and increasingly will be, selling food to China) China's higher value added production, US /China trade will stop (nothing going to US, nothing sold by US).

The high US interest rates will also adversely affect US's general competitiveness. Foreigners will see their dollar holdings are not only losing value but also doing so at an accelerating rate. - Best to get out of US stocks etc. before others do etc. will be the common wisdom. I.e. at some point, no one will want dollars and US will not even be able to buy oil with them, especially as the ink on them will not even be dry. I expect some of this is already in progress, but think it has a few years to go yet, before the panic rush to get out of dollars hits. Just look what commodities have done in the last year. Commodities are real values, not green paper, with pictures of George Washington, hot off the press, as they will be then.
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*I strongly suspect the “criminal” was well paid. He fire from a crowd, but was not caught, most likely there were government agents immediately surrounding and protecting him. The wounds were more burses than penetration - most of the gun powder had no doubt been removed for the bullets. Only the torso was hit, eyes could have been damaged. Etc. It happened about 3 days before the election - just enough time for the news to spread thoughout the country side, making his supporters angry enough to all get to the polls.

Billy.. a few comments:

1. I believe the scenarios you envision are plausible but unlikely. The relationship with China is tenuous but still mutually beneficial. Our gov't certainly recognizes (or at least it should) that it is not in the position to do anything serious about Taiwan. The situation you describe is one of a mexican standoff where both sides open fire. It would short sided for both parties.

2. I believe you are being self-contradictory in your view of rates and the dollar. A weak dollar helps U.S. exports by making them cheaper to buy in foreign markets. However, rising interest rates attract capital and thus work against dollar devaluation. Still, rates are relatively low historically speaking and the gov't debt load is not yet so severe to trigger capital flight due to inflationary risk. So long as inflation remains in check, I believe we will be ok. The impact of higher rates on spending will keep the US economy in check and provide a couterbalance against inflation. The system is more resilient than you may believe and the Fed are no dummies.

The most obvious risk is the real estate market, but most of the bubble exists near coastal urban centers that have become far more international in recent years. Any massive adjustment in real estate prices would be shortly followed by massive inflows of foreign investment, imho.

That being said, consumer debt is the one that scares me the most. There may be a tipping point beyond which a cascade of bankruptcy and foreclosures follows. Spending may not recover for many years if we trip this wire.

Edit: Follow up thought - The problem with the consumer spending conundrum is that the Fed would not have much left in its arsenal to combat a fall-off in consumer spending. Any downward pressure on rates would kill the dollar in the open market and exacerbate an already bubbled asset market.

I believe you are being self-contradictory in your view of rates and the dollar. A weak dollar helps U.S. exports by making them cheaper to buy in foreign markets. ...So it states in Eco101 texts, but the real world is often more complex. For example, the Brazilian Real has become much stronger than it was a few years ago. One Real will buy about $0.45 US now. A couple of years ago it would buy only about $0.30 US. A 50% increase in strength vs the dollar.

Eco101 says that Brazilian exports should be greatly depressed, but fact is they have doubled and last year Brazil had a 10Billion dollar trade surplus instead of the prior deficits. Do not believe every thing your teachers tell you. The real world is much more complex than Eco101 portrays it to be. Wait till you get to Eco106, at least.

To mention just one of the facts you will find in Eco106. Arabs will not buy Danish cheese reguardless of the price. My Brazilian wife will not drink Coke Cola, even if free.* GWB is easily making the simple Eco101 wrong in most of the world America needs to export to.
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*I like coke, but it is not worth annoying her to buy it at the store. We have agreed I can drink it at parties when I should not drink any more of the stronger beverages.

Billy T - As a Wharton-grad, former investment banker and leveraged buyout guy, I think I might have some insight beyond econ 101. Thanks for the condescending remarks, though. Rising interest rates are currently a reactionary policy and will serve only to contain the dollar's fall. As you must know from your physics background, it is all relative.

You cannot isolate movement against one currency. Brazil's strength is in large part due to lower percieved risk of inflation, devaluation, and gov't corruption. They are also seeing growth as a result of strong oil exports (along with reduced imports) and local ethanol production from the cane fields. Stability has been on the rise in Brazil for some years since the hyperinflation that was triggered by the oil shocks of the 70's, but investors have a long memory when it comes to that kind of stuff. In addition, there is a large influx of direct investment in commercial real estate in process.

My original point is that I believe that you are overestimating the risks to the U.S. economy and I believe that I am correct. The risks are very real, but are being managed fairly well. If you want to trace the problem back to its root cause, you have to go back to the asian flu of the late 90's and the capital pump that followed. This set up the initial conditions for the market bubble, which then deflated (or at least transitioned to real estate). It is a shell game of hide the soft asset inflation while competition keeps consumers happy at the lower level.

PS - My Paulista wife is not a coke fan either. However, annoying a brazilian woman is always a bad idea.... always.

Billy T - As a Wharton-grad, former investment banker and leveraged buyout guy, I think I might have some insight beyond econ 101. Thanks for the condescending remarks, though. Rising interest rates are currently a reactionary policy and will serve only to contain the dollar's fall. You are welcome, but obviously the Eco101 remarks were not, and certainly do not apply, to you. I agree that rising rates will "contain the dollar's fall," UP TO A POINT*; however, I would, despite being much less qualified than you, have put this a little differently:
Keeping the dollars from coming out coffee cans and mattresses, especially Russian ones, is impossible. (That where most of the paper ones still are, I think, not circulating in the US.) If they are not "sterilized" someway, then the excess in circulation will rapidly make the dollar fall, hence interest rates, especially in US are rising to soak them up. (We both agree central bankers are not stupid, do not like inflation etc..) Yes, "it is all relative" to how you want to look at it. I also agree with all else in your post but not completely clear about:

...If you want to trace the problem back to its root cause, you have to go back to the asian flu of the late 90's and the capital pump that followed. This set up the initial conditions for the market bubble, which then deflated (or at least transitioned to real estate). It is a shell game of hide the soft asset inflation while competition keeps consumers happy at the lower level. ...I have always wondered why the C.B.s turned on the facet of the money supply. - seems against their nature. Perhaps Japan needed this, but surely not all. I do not get the Asian flu connection, unless you are just saying the CBs got scared the world was about to collapse in sickness. If that is it, why the current tightening in the face of the "bird flu" - unless I am right and the US has no choice about rates as the dollars come out of mattresses.

In some sense, this is a great "negative income" for the US. When the dollars, which cost a few cents to print, went into the mattresses, the US government made a lot of profit on printing them. Now it must pay the piper. What is your view?

One thing you might want to discuss with your Brazilian wife is my following observations:
Brazilians love rental real estate investments. It was about the only thing to do with money in the rapid inflation period. The majority of the well to do are just beginning to discover equities (stocks). Because of my dollar fears, I have owned mainly ADRs for several years and several are Brazilian. I have large (300% profits) in many and will take some profits soon but do not want to boost my tax bracket too much so can't get entirely out of them. Local SP market is near the all time high yet foreigners are still pouring money in as best as I can tell.
I am sure real interest rates here (world's highest) will come down considerably before the October presidential election, and Brazil will lose some of its attractiveness to foreigner's hot money. What I do not know is will the typical Brazilian's disinvestments in bank applications flow into the local stock market, sending it even higher, despite some foreign exiting or will it flow into the more traditional Brazilian's investment, real estate, despite fact the rental market is quite soft and high rise apartments are still going up everywhere you turn around here in Sao Paulo. To me the over-building bubble must burst soon - make me think of Florida's history - but no Brazilian I have talked to seems to see it this way.
If after talking to your wife, you have any views, tell them to me. My Brazilian wife cannot even balance her checkbook and has no interest in these things.
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*If a real run on the dollar starts, high rates will not stop it. They will just confirm the situation is truly desperate and accelerate it.

BT -

With respect to the asian flu, you (or others reading this with lesser knowledge) can find some solid background here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis

I believe your instincts are on the mark, the C.B.s over-reacted. In the U.S., memories of '87 loomed large and fears of a real global meltdown were overblown, which led to excessively loose policy and a flood of capital into the U.S. market (while we restricted investments in emerging economies). The low rates brought a great boom during which it assumed that inflation was kept at bay due to productivity gains, but I believe this to have been merely an optical illusion. We simply traded hard asset inflation for soft asset inflation. The capital overflow combined with Internet and the myth of the new economy to create the perfect storm that precipitated the bubble. In the end, yes, the chicken's do have to come home to roost sometime and the present egg on our face is dangerous warning sign. It is amazing to me that the Fed has managed to deftly avoid disaster so far and I give Greenie lots of credit here. Spreading out the damage over as long of a period as possible is/was the key to keeping the consumer primed. However, with oil prices soaring and iraq debt mounting, our soft-landing runway is running out of room fast. I also believe that you are correct in your assessment about the "U.S. having no choice about rates," which is why I labeled the increases reactionary.

With respect to Brazil, you probably have a keener insight here than I (or my wife), but from my understanding, real estate is still cheap compared to the rest of the world despite the recent gains. I also believe equities are a solid bet long term. That being said, growing pains are to be expected and I am not very clear on the market psychology down there. I would expect that lesson learned habits will die hard, but when they do change, they will change fast (and probably go too far). It is also worthwhile to note that real estate is one of the few things you can buy in brazil that won't be stolen (at least near the cities). From my understanding, ancillary spending is still "at your own risk," even in cities like SP. Question: what is the current amount of leverage embedded in the Brazilian real estate market?

Your comment about a run on the dollar is interesting. I wonder if any group out there would have the balls to coordinate an effort to break it. I wonder if I could get in trouble just for suggesting that it could be done (not that I am a tin-foil hat wearer). I am sure that given the state of affairs this would quickly become a national security issue and free markets would be thrown out the window. Given the destabilization effect this could have on the world, I doubt anyone would be willing to risk it (yet).

...That being said, I hope someone out there has a solid contingency plan.

...Question: what is the current amount of leverage embedded in the Brazilian real estate market?...Because of the high real rates (and fact some here have a lot of money)* I do not think the leverage is high, except on very modest housing for low income people who qualify for special loans, etc. Brazil's economy still has a great deal of governmental social engineering in it. Even contracts can be cancelled by the courts if some judge thinks it is "unfair," but you can usually find another judge in a higher court who will reverse him or at least "stay' any adverse judgments etc. I have minor process in the courts against the Bank of Brazil and won my case at the lowest level several years ago. They appealed, and it will be several years more before we even get a new court date, I am told. I will probably die before they run out of appeals and delays.
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*A lot of people get money in not exactly legal ways here. I know a man, as well as it is possible to know any man, but that does not necessarily mean I am that man, who sold his farm to another man. The buyer had money he could not explain. You must report the value of everything you own annually on the tax forms and the increase in your reported wealth can not exceed your income etc. or you will have problems with the tax man. So buyer paid most of the sales price "under the table" and the deed recorded the price at less than half of the value the farm sold for. The seller was happy to accommodate the buyer as the result was, on paper, he had no capital gain.

It is an interesting place to live. First year here, during a long trip I was forced to pay a policeman to prevent my car from being ceased on some pretence, which I now forget. It would have cost me much more to get a taxi just to get back to the city, so I paid. Things are getting better. -Now a few of the very corrupt politicians are actually being removed from office, by their colleagues, but usually a mutual protection concept seems to be in effect.

They have a relatively-new, wonderful, expression to describe these "trials," which your wife may not yet have heard: "Everything ends in pizza." Reference, I think, to fact that the fellow congressmen who acted as judges and the congressman being judged, all go out for pizza together after they acquit him. (There seems to be some prohibition of having a legislator tried by the regular courts for anything, unless he is first removed from office by his colleagues. - In US, this congressional immunity only extends to thing said on the floor of congress, but here it appears to be a very broad immunity. One congressman even got off recently despite fact his bribe was paid by check, and a photocopy of the check appeared in all the papers! Perhaps this is why so many run for elections?

PS - I guess you are correct that real estate is difficult to steal (unless you are a politician and it is government held land.) but with the price of copper being what it is today, your unattended house can be destroyed. MY wife's son, by prior marriage, was away from home for a few weeks and all the walls were broken open to permit the removal of the copper wires! Labor is so cheap he should have hired someone to stay in the house. Some are so poor and some so rich that crime is easily understood, but it is usually without violence. I do not walk outside after dark and if driving late at night (returning home from party etc) often I do not stop at red lights where the street lighting is not good. I slow down well before reaching the light and just look to see that nothing is coming on the cross street when I get there if it is still red.

If you are being robbed and cooperate with the robber, I am told, he will not hurt you. (You should always carry some money so he does not get mad.) He will even give you your ID papers back if you ask nicely and he does not want my $5 timex. It is sort of an individual "be your own Robin Hood system" that partially compensates for the extremely low wages.)

The greatest danger is that some poorly trained policeman may come on the scene and shoot you. This happens at least once a month in Sao Paulo. A year or two ago several people were shot by the police while being robbed in about 10 days. A editorial cartoon in the newspaper a few days later showed a robbery in progress. The victim can see the approaching police, but the robber's view of the police is blocked. The victim is saying: "Please hurry, the police are coming."