Received this via email:

The coming decline of America
R Jagannathan

February 24, 2004

If there is one thing I am willing to bet my last (declining) dollar on, it is that American power has peaked. Economic power certainly has; and military power will follow.

A country's economic power depends on its competitive strengths, and two in particular: you either have to provide the rest of the world with resources that only you can provide; or you must offer a huge market for their exports...

...To be sure, America's military might will help it retain its hyperpower status for a few more decades. But today's America is more like the Soviet Union of the 1970s and 1980s, which had enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world but not enough economic staying power.

We are now seeing the beginning of the end of American power and this will bring new challenges for us and the rest of the world


http://www.sulekha.com/redirectnh.asp?cid=327725

I have predicted America's Sovietization of her military policy, and her desperate economic one of that. The US lynchpin of power will rest if her armed forces, not in her economy. Eventually (and soon) the US will simply fall behind states like China, India, and a united EU. A sharp economic downturn in the US imo will happen to correct her inflated position economically. The US economy = debt = unsustainability.

I wouldn't gloat to much, The end of America will most likely bring the end of all the countries that make us products.

Except a few that would love to go back to living like animals as their lord intended! :D

Except a few that would love to go back to living like animals as their lord intended! :D
LOL was that southern baptist preacher voice?

Declines take centuries and I m not sure this is a decline ... Its a cycle and your tooting the horn way too early ...

Manufactored jobs are easially extinguished and moved if there is a cheaper labor force in another country mexico got them and then from there they moved to other places like china.

I must admit a united&cohesive Eu is not something I see happening for maybe another 40-50 years or at all. Europe was the best innovator when it was in competition with itself in its fractured state. With each little state trying to out do the other in every direction.

United Kingdom which had its' empire and decline and whatnot isnt the abyss of the world today. True it yeilded its superpower status long ago but the benefits that it earned during that time are still kicking today in the pound sterling.

Ecconomies especially rich ecconomies tend to grow in places with a traditional history of long standing and strong property rights. Rich people dont wanna be where they could be stripped and robed by the govt. I also hold the old view of an agrarian ecconomy base that will always make a country relentless in its surge to the top. Ergo a country that can feed itself by its own industry is more prone to flourish ecconomicly then not. This isnt a criteria but just makes it easier for a country to lift itself up by not having a constant imports & outflow of moneys for food which is a neverending necessity.

Good post Eluminate. Just some minot points. Unlike India where it took centuries in the past for the decline, USA cycle time may be somewhat faster. If if there has to be a decline, it can be rapid but not overnight. The universe runs on multiple cycles. Within this cycle of our economy, it could get pretty ugly. Already, there is talk about backing away from WTO and NAFTA.

I think, what I see is, we do not have any near term technologies to push us to the next phase. And our debt load is too high. That would cause some major issues. We do have technologies in the R&D that will be arriving in about 8 years. My suggestions would be to speed them up while we tighten our belt.

But if our intellectual properties start moving overseas for nothing, then we have serious problems. There will be very little private sector jobs left to buy anything. Only the farmers, govt, healthcare and non-profits will be left. That does not make a great society.

The American decline is the decline of the nation state as well. The American decline is indicative of the capitalist rise, the same things that the US fought for (capitalism) will eventually kill it. "Live by the sword, die by the sword", is the axiom that would best suit the US decline. I think the American ppl are very much into the idea of "American exceptionalism", that nothing can break the US. But it can, the idea that the US is vital to the world is becoming less and less true. If we were to take India and China for instance they will both usurp the US as large consumer economies. The American public feels that it cannot be topped, but it will. American wages have gone down since the 70's and will continue to lose it's PPP in comparison to other states. Notice that most of the consumerism in the US now is attributed to debt. The American economy is not real; it is one that is based on the fragile relationship of the ability of Americans to pay back that debt. Private debt in the US is a whopping $9 trillion, that is 9/10 the US economy. Meanwhile the Chinese have a $6 trillion economy, and growing with debt not even close to that of the US. When you have 2 billion ppl who are well educated, who have public healthcare, and who have a social safety net, the US would be hard pressed to compete. The US simply cannot compete with these new mega-states. Not only that the US is becoming dependant on these very same states for it's economic survival. The US economy is built on the premise of the cheapest goods, but good quality ones. That simply would not exist if jobs that are overseas were brought back to the US, the economy would go through an interesting patch. The US decline is a rise of Globalization, which drains developed nations of its wealth and re-distributes it worldwide. The US is not different; with $1.5 trillion of capital invested overseas it becomes obvious that the US is increasingly dependant on the Rest of the World. American authority will rest on the military, and the US will fail at her military adventures.

Kgmuru:

Except a few that would love to go back to living like animals as their lord intended
Working for America is living like an animal. But not like the savage ones we admire- panthers and tigers. More like cows, oxen and poodles.

Undecided:

The American decline is the decline of the nation state as well. The American decline is indicative of the capitalist rise, the same things that the US fought for (capitalism) will eventually kill it. "Live by the sword, die by the sword", is the axiom that would best suit the US decline. I think the American ppl are very much into the idea of "American exceptionalism", that nothing can break the US
Indeed. And you can see how sick and spoilt the American mentality is by seeing how American tourists freely walk around Pakistan and the Phillipines- dangerous places terrorist wise- with this idea in their head their consitution travels with them.

There are hundreds and hundreds of American prisoners bitching in Mexican prisons right now about 'due process of law'. They've been sitting there for months even years now completely dumbfounded that injustice such as this actually exists in the world.

Its not injustice, one must tell the Gringo. Its reality.

I don't think America's decline will come by way of economics- its her mentality that is sick and ignorant. However, its always the big guns that win in the end so if we can only graduate from this sham of burgouise complacency to one of military despotism like in Roman days, then I guarantee Osama is ours tomorrow and there'd no longer be any need for this Homeland Security garbage.

This doesn't surprise me. In fact, I predict that Western civilization, as we know it now, will be almost extinct in a century, perhaps a century and a half.

In addition to manufacturing jobs being sent overseas and locally-owned business being replaced by multinational corporations, add this to the mix:

By 2040, Muslim immigrants and children of immigrants will outnumber the native populations of Germany and France.

The governments of France and Germany, both members of NATO and the EU, will be controlled by Muslims. The agenda of these government will, by necessity, change dramatically. I am not placing any value judgment on this whatsoever, merely stating this as a predicted outcome.

By 2055, minorities will outnumber whites in the United States.

Won't that be interesting. No doubt, for a sustained period, the whites will still control the majority of the wealth, but the growth of a population results in better represenation (one would hope), and I have little doubt there will be changes resulting in a redistribution of some kind, even if just in the form of higher taxes for higher tax brackets.

Both represent major shifts of power and influence. And history is determined by those with the power.

May be the Chinese and Indians will save the day for the whites....that is why we are pushing them to be in a position to save us from our myopic vision. :D

Actually minority is not a problem as long as the minorities have the same values as the majorities. It is when one group has a completely different idea about freedom, imagination, life, liberty and happiness that is contrary to the other. Then you have a serious problem.

Bitterchick:

This doesn't surprise me. In fact, I predict that Western civilization, as we know it now, will be almost extinct in a century, perhaps a century and a half.

If I was as retarded or moronic, I think I would be as bitter as you missy.
What makes you think Western Civilization will be extinct? Intermarriage? Cross breeding? What does mating have to with idealism?

There are Hindus, Chinese, Phillipino, Serbian, Russian, African, Australian people all the way over there in the East living just like Amercians or Western Europeans. Western civilization, its fuctions and cog wheels is both appealing and it works.

Kgmuru:

Actually minority is not a problem as long as the minorities have the same values as the majorities. It is when one group has a completely different idea about freedom, imagination, life, liberty and happiness that is contrary to the other. Then you have a serious problem.
No, minorities are not a problem because most of them (if not all) are dumb as dirt.

Those that lack discipline are rarely a threat. Those that don't are- the Jews are by large a minority. But disciplined.

It is the super greed by the few that declines a society...from Greeks to Romans to the Kings and on....When the hands that feeds them get chopped off...the body dies....such is the nature of the world...

Kgmuru:

It is the super greed by the few that declines a society...from Greeks to Romans to the Kings and on....
Hmm.

Interesting.

That's right- the human story is one of playing nice, yes?. He sat down to tea with his enemies and they worked out a deal where one could go build his municipalities and cities on his little turf without the other one bothering him.

No- no one had to fight tooth and nail to build his cities from nothing. No it wasn't the greedy drive to survive and empower that BUILT society, it was the girlish niceties of treating their neighbors with sugar lumps and inanity.

Greed brought down the Romans, goes [b]Kgmuru[/i], Greed brought down the Persians and Greeks, goes you who probably shuns hate.

You do don't you? Shun hate? Think its something vile and atrocious maybe?

Its lack of discipline in anything that brings great Men down, my boy, not greed.

Military and economic power has been mentioned, but how about Hollywood? The generation of entertainment is a significant source of power. Also, America is a pioneer of scientific and medical research. I feel the impression of looming disaster comes from focusing on too narrow areas. Everything in the western world is accelerating, our problems as well as our powers, and the U.S. is at the leading edge of this.

The engine that drives civilization is creativity. From the first Neolithic hunter who realized that he could just capture the game animals instead of killing them, then let them reproduce in his own corral and the gatherer who noticed that if you drop seeds in fertile soil new plants will pop up, allowing the tribe to stay in one place. To the guy who figured out how to increase productivity with the assembly line, and the one who found out that atoms can be split, and the one who reduced entire electronic circuits to a tiny chip. Every major advance that has propelled civilization into a new era was the result of creativity.

The U.S. has been a wellspring of creativity throughout its history. That is what’s kept us in the lead. Everything else, from our barely functional but liberating form of government, to our ability to put together a kick-ass war machine whenever we thought we needed one, to our dominance in the electronic entertainment industry, are just artifacts of our creativity.

We’re running really low on creativity today. Our corporate scandals are the direct result of the fact that the only creativity our corporations exhibit any more is in their accounting. (I stole that line from somebody.) Our government now consumes a full 40 percent of our GDP and hasn’t accomplished anything noteworthy (at least not anything positive and noteworthy) in years. Our entertainment media are recycling old motifs as fast as they can dig them up.

What’s the reason? Does one people only get a certain amount of creativity and we’ve had ours? Has the government’s school system turned our children’s brains to mush? Does it turn out that TV really is bad for us?

I don’t know. All of these changes happened rather abruptly, in a historical context. Just a couple of generations. We could still wake up as a nation and get our act together. It’s too early to count us out but it’s certainly scary.

Scary because nobody else is taking over. Sure, some other countries have hot economies, but they’re not powered by creativity, simply by lucky opportunities.

And scary because despite the previous assertion that it takes centuries for an empire to decline, that hasn’t been the case during my lifetime. The Soviet Empire rose and fell in less than 75 years. The Third Reich didn’t last two decades. We’ve had 228 years and we’re heading blindly into a paradigm shift where things happen really fast. The rug could be pulled out from under us tomorrow.

Greed, lack of discipline, ethnic diversity, fundamental changes in the nature of the economy? Naw. Those are hallmarks of American culture. They won’t bring us down. In fact, if we can channel those emotions a little more constructively, they might pull us back up.

If I was as retarded or moronic, I think I would be as bitter as you missy.

Don't sell yourself short: I think you're far more retarded and moronic than you give yourself credit for.


What makes you think Western Civilization will be extinct? Intermarriage? Cross breeding? What does mating have to with idealism?

Political and social influence. America has seen what happens with those with a different value structure come into power. Compare the Civil Rights movement following the Civil War with the Plessy v. Ferguson decision only 30 years later and the subsequent 70 year struggle to get those same rights back. This has nothing to do with breeding. It has to do with strength of numbers and influence. Those with the strength of numbers have the influence.


There are Hindus, Chinese, Phillipino, Serbian, Russian, African, Australian people all the way over there in the East living just like Amercians or Western Europeans. Western civilization, its fuctions and cog wheels is both appealing and it works.

A. Australia and New Zealand were colonized by Great Britain, so that's a lousy example.

2. Leaving aside for the moment your abysmal grammar, your "Yea-U.S" patriotic myopathy isn't really an argument. A party line, sure, but not an argument. Because a country has trade, schools, and movie theaters they want to be us? The U.S. isn't the the 1980's "I-want-to-buy-your-blue-jeans-Comrade" U.S. anymore. I hate to break this to you, but huge populations of the world HATE US and our self-imposed role as International Hall Monitor. Radical Muslims are probably the most visual right now (and most popular with the media) but they aren't the only ones who would like to see America obliterated. Muslims have good reason to resent the U.S. Not only does our lifestyle generally conflict with their religious beliefs, but our interference in Middle East affairs for the last century hasn't made us any friends...our protection of the U.N. (e.g., Western European) created Israeli state, our interference with the civil elections in Iran, replacing the popularly elected prime minister with the lately-deposed Shah and keeping him on the throne for another 30 years of human rights violations, our repeated "wars" in Iraq. Our state-supported suspicion and fear of anyone who looks vaguely Middle Eastern doesn't help.

This has nothing to do with racial characteristics: it's about the influence of one race permeating society. When the power structure flows from a predominantly Christian, Western European population to a predominantly Muslim population of mixed descent (many Europeans are converting, so it's not exclusively although largely Muslims of Middle Eastern descent), there will be a shift in the priorities of government and treatment of the governed.

While I do not endorse, support, or even agree with the perspective of the speakers in these links, here are some links to what others are saying on the subject:

http://www.iconservative.com/population_anxiety.htm

http://www.islamicpopulation.com/europearticle.html

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/leigh200403051052.asp


(P.S. Due to people not grasping sarcasm in my posts, I am going to start posting disclaimers: Don't bother correcting my A., 2., list above. It was a joke. It was intended to be ironic. I know at least one person who will get it.)

The U.S. isn't the the 1980's "I-want-to-buy-your-blue-jeans-Comrade" U.S. anymore. I hate to break this to you, but huge populations of the world HATE US and our self-imposed role as International Hall Monitor.

It's so true and the recent Pew polling group came out with these stats:

http://people-press.org/reports/images/206-10.gif

I think its self explanatory, and the US depends on these stats for her survival as a superpower state. Let's face facts the US does things traditionally with a majority of support from European powers, and are generally seen in a good light. Today thanks to the Bush administration and thanks to the war in Iraq the US is seen in a very bad light. Sadly this is indicative of a trend with the US, and this new neo-conservative tinge that has spread across the administration like AIDS does Botswana. To many Americans the gospel of the neo-cons http://www.newamericancentury.org/ is basically America doing the world good. Most Americans follow this ethic of American exceptionalism, and that the US does things for the betterment of man, not American interests. By contrast, 70% of Americans think the U.S. takes other nations' interests into account a great deal (34%) or a fair amount (36%); just 27% think the U.S. is mostly unconcerned with other nations. Republicans are nearly unanimous (85%) in the view that American foreign policy takes other nations into account, while a much smaller majority of Democrats agree (56%). This myth that the republican party is stronger of Foreign affairs is a very dangerous myth indeed. Americans may not like it, but showing your balls around like a gorilla is not helping your cause. Invading nations on the premise of lies, and half-truths does not help your cause. You America depend on the world more now then ever, and it's only going to increase. I don't know how the US will balance this out, if the presidency remains under GWB and the republicans.

Bitterchick:

Don't sell yourself short: I think you're far more retarded and moronic than you give yourself credit for.
..said the girly with the handle announcing the very inaninity high-minds detest her for. You retard. You moron. IDIOTA.


Political and social influence. America has seen what happens with those with a different value structure come into power. Compare the Civil Rights movement following the Civil War with the Plessy v. Ferguson decision only 30 years later and the subsequent 70 year struggle to get those same rights back. This has nothing to do with breeding. It has to do with strength of numbers and influence. Those with the strength of numbers have the influence.

You some kind of lawyer? Or a law student? Perhaps aspiring to be one, or by chance some kind of second rate politcal analyst?

Look at you with your case references, perhaps now you'd like to whip out a Word doc and outline to me what subsidies or merger rules are- maybe feed me some morsels on "party lines" or historical 'benchmarks'.

Tell me, what difference would political and social influences make if those imposing them only ape their predecessors? Example: Pakistan is an autocracy, but unike other authoritarian regimes of the past centuries his (Musharaff) Democratic tendencies make him tolerable.
Haiti, same thing.

Western Civilization- its very nature and idealism work by virtue of its permissiveness and appeal to human freedoms. I'll even give you an anaglogy to make it simple. Rosseau writes in his "Social Contract", book 4:


"... pagans always regarded the Christians as true rebels who, under the cloak of hypocritical submission, only awaited the moment to make themselves independent and supreme, and cunningly to usurp that authority which they made a show of respecting while they were weak. Such was the cause of the persecutions. What the pagans feared did indeed happen; then everything altered its countenance; the humble Christians changed their tune and soon the so-called kingdom of the other world was seen to become, under a visible ruler, the most violent despotism of this world. ... in Christian states, ... men have never known whether they ought to obey the civil ruler or the priest. Many peoples, even in Europe or nearby, have tried to preserve or re-establish the ancient system, but without success: the spirit of Christianity has won completely."

With the exception of having to call democracy a 'violent despot' for the sake of analogy just take your little mind and replace "Christiany" with "Western Civilization". No appeals to ancient systems- this includes the gamut of isms from feudalism to socaliasm- can re-establish older practices that simply do and did not work.

Once given the wheel only the rebels entrenched in dogma and ennui would root for hard labor again.


Leaving aside for the moment your abysmal grammar,
Pehasp yu'd liike to chekc my splelling to, yes?


your "Yea-U.S" patriotic myopathy isn't really an argument. A party line, sure, but not an argument. Because a country has trade, schools, and movie theaters they want to be us? The U.S. isn't the the 1980's "I-want-to-buy-your-blue-jeans-Comrade" U.S. anymore. I hate to break this to you, but huge populations of the world HATE US and our self-imposed role as International Hall Monitor
Ooh. Aahh.

How they hate us, yet as soon as the mullas are plucked from their country there is a very capitalist rush to put up shops selling cellphones and satellite dishes to outdo their neighbors.

They love driving their Chevis and SUV's down Kabul now that "democracy" is going to be raining opportunity down on their country and their institutions will no longer be the feared despots they now are.

They hate us, yet call on our breadbaskets and suck American dick until the food runs out.
Notice the appeals to the UN when their countries are in trouble, notice the loudest cries for help are the ones addressed to Americans.
Notice the cheers when statues and oppressive regimes come down with Allied bombs...........now notice the sneers and loud cries of 'occupation' soon afterward.

I'm no patriot, missy, far from it but I'm a realist. NEWSFLASH: One mostly sees their hate when out basket runs out of bread. Follow?



This has nothing to do with racial characteristics: it's about the influence of one race permeating society. When the power structure flows from a predominantly Christian, Western European population to a predominantly Muslim population of mixed descent (many Europeans are converting, so it's not exclusively although largely Muslims of Middle Eastern descent), there will be a shift in the priorities of government and treatment of the governed.


Western Civilization enshrines human reason. It appeals (ideally anyway) to the human intellect, his will, his carnal drive to survive.

It is the bloosoming freshness of the Reinassance and Humanism, it furnishes man with liberty to experiment and live his life as though he owned it despite a mass of government dictating down to it. Its the most toreable form of postitve reinforcement imaginable this thing we call Western Civilazation and it fucking works.

This is why no Muslim, Buddhist, or socialist will ever bring it down and maintain whatever substitute he has for it successfully.

originally posted by gendumbass:
You some kind of lawyer? Or a law student? Perhaps aspiring to be one, or by chance some kind of second rate politcal analyst?


originally posted by bitterchick:

As a lawyer I have another completely self-interested reason for supporting gay marriage -- more divorce clients!! Mo money, mo money...

(The preceeding phrase contains sarcasm, which is not intended by the reader to be taken literally).

Still sticking to your claim that you read everything?

15 centavos:

Still sticking to your claim that you read everything?
Eat shit, blue eyes.

You've proven two things:

One, how blended in with the background noise this chicky here is. I can't tell you shit about her because she's never said anything of much of interest, comes off as simplistic as most naysayers usually are, and her boring posts- BORING- posts could peel paint off my wall.

And the second thing you've proven: my psychoanalytic abitlites are not as fucked as I usually think they are. She really is a lawyer and I had no fucking clue she was one.

Ta!

originally posted by gendumbass
Eat shit, blue eyes.

How could I have known that this forum was so starved for good-looking blue-eyed men. You certainly are just another member of the "obsessed with 15's Blue Eyes" club. I had no idea that one inconsequential post could have ignited such a firestorm in your organization. But I digress... :)

I like you gendy. You are actually capable of humor. What a concept, no?

Some advice: You probably don't want to challenge an attorney on matters of Con-Law. Most assuredly, you will get your ass kicked. Here's a radical concept...you might actually learn a thing or two.

Even the two-headed hydra has a chance at knowledge if dogma is offset with experience.

the us is going down, bush knows this, and wants to win some records for the US (such as most Muslim countries annexed) before it does go down. Also Americas economy goes up as a result of wars, so that is probably why they're attacking now.

i dont really see anyone that could take over though, Someone mentioned Europe, which i doubt will get too united (still anger over the whole WWI and WWII things)

i would rather the Chinese or Indian having power then the US - It was a good idea, but it has got a bit shoddy lately

I'd think that the US is actually holding its own. It is trying to establish good relations with China , who I think will emerge as the next world economic leader and try to work together in keeping BOTH countries as well as other countries capitalistic and growing.

cosmictraveler

How soon we forget Taiwan, relations are getting a little worse lately because of the backlash over outsourcing. The US it seems will cancel it's economic meetings with the Chinese in May for what it calls "unfair" trade practices. Bascially as long as Taiwan is there the Chinese and American relationship will be strained. Also I don't know how the US will deal with the fact that China will usurp her in influence in Asia?

One thing missing here is resources. While India and China have the population to support a booming economy they dont have the natural resources. Lets not even get into infrastructure.........

India and China is full of natural resources. It is the Japan which lacks....

While India and China have the population to support a booming economy they dont have the natural resources

They do have resources, but they don't have enough you are right. But what do you think SE Asia and Siberia are for? Once China monopolizes trade out of the US' and Japan's hand thing will quickly change. These states will become dependant on China, and that is not a good thing for the US let alone those nations.

Lets not even get into infrastructure.........

They are developing; billions are now being poured in. China's infrastructure in the coastal regions is not that bad...India well that needs modernization.

We take things like Wood for granted. Everything in India is made of of concrete, including fence posts. Plus you have 1,000 religions etc..etc.. India has problems. No highways, power problems, etc.. they need alot of work.
China.....well China worries me. Their coastal cities are really picking up. The interior is still 2000 years old but the infrastructure will spread.
Quick thought.........I know the vast majority of people think that Iraq was all about the Oil. Now, im not saying it was- just that it was a big time added bonus. What if this was a pre-emptive strike to keep China in line? China is importing butt loads of Oil and would need massive imports to sustain any real Military invasion. Maybe we are preventing future Chinese hostilities??? Just a thought.....

Quick thought.........I know the vast majority of people think that Iraq was all about the Oil. Now, im not saying it was- just that it was a big time added bonus. What if this was a pre-emptive strike to keep China in line? China is importing butt loads of Oil and would need massive imports to sustain any real Military invasion. Maybe we are preventing future Chinese hostilities??? Just a thought.....

China has Iran, I predict that China will become a very big player in the Middle East soon enough.

I did a thread on this: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=34138

I suggest you read, the US is in dire straights indeed.

15of19:

How could I have known that this forum was so starved for good-looking blue-eyed men. You certainly are just another member of the "obsessed with 15's Blue Eyes" club. I had no idea that one inconsequential post could have ignited such a firestorm in your organization. But I digress...
Sarcasm bites.

Point to ponder: had you been obese, I'd be mauling you with fat jokes.
Had you been female, I'd destroy you with misogony.

I only go with what I know and then use it against you if you cross me first- I realize you're being funny with your statement but it bothers the shit out of me when men think I want them. "But I digress...."


I like you gendy
*flips hair*

Lies. (please say you like me, please say you like me, pretty please say you like me)


Some advice: You probably don't want to challenge an attorney on matters of Con-Law. Most assuredly, you will get your ass kicked.

And what do her law degrees have to do with understanding? Its dinsgenius to place much faith on labels especially when the ones wearing them are female.

She'd like to sit there and babble about the West being destroyed by the hate of suicidal Muslims and I'll treat her like the pompous twat I think she is with her Plessy v. Ferguson bullshit.

Now go make yourself uselful:

http://sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=33204&page=4

The rest of the world better hope there is never war with China. It would be nuclear and BOTH nations would be blown out of oblivion (and i'm sure other countries would start to go down in the mayhem). China or the US might think "If we're going down we're taking the rest of the world with us" and start launching nukes at everyone. God knows there are enough. The only way to avoid such events would be to have only one country covering the entirety of the Earth (which would NEVER happen). I think both China and the US acknoledge the impacts of nuclear war. I also think the worst that would ever happen is a new "cold" war with China. Oh, and most people in America think Bush is a dumbshit. Sometimes countries get bad leaders, oh well.

I think china will pop like a baloon in the next 5 years or sooner. The ecconomic variables are there so is the infrastructure thats rotten to the core and able to recieve such a weight to bring it all the way to the bottom fo the bust. Personally the biggest factors that China has going against her is the superb deterioration state of her financial system intermediers (banks) their portfolios are packed full of shit (insolvent loans) at 10% insolvent loans and higher in the big central banks to 25% in the regionals and below. The second part of the problem is the ecconomic dependance on the low yuan to keep the capital flowing. As soon as it appreciates investment will begin to slow down and banks will begin to collapse from lack of liquidity.

Oh yes and the oil dependance in China will be far far heavier then US. For example America has reserves and produces for about half of its needs domesticly. China on the other hand has recently announced the the Daquing oilfields which are its major source deposit are begining to lower production scaling aproximately 7% annualy and will run dry by approximately 2010. China imports about 30-40% of its needs annualy and will needs to increase imports drasticly to keep up with demand which is skyrocketing. Personally I feel that unlike the US it will be hard for china to maintain a balance of trade in order to offset its commodity needs. Oil, metal etc... But dont forget the basics grain, meat, and other staples which have increased in price by about 50% due to China's hunger. Also so far 80% of the Chiese goods I had the pleasure of buying had the absolute worst quality. My father stoped buying them as well so did his boss cause the quality is beyond horrific.

Economists have been predicting China's financial ballon to pop since mid eighties....but it keeps going and going....even Deutsche Bank only showed its profits by shedding a quarter of its staff and sold more than $14 billion of assets to boost its profit. So when the time comes, the Chinese will do the same. They are fast learners.

China is still along with the U.S. the driver of Global Economy.In countries like India Liberalization,Disinvestments have just begun.So India is relatively new to this sort of Economy.Therefore Market works on Fundamentals(Which India is Very Strong in) plus some sentimental values as well.Unless that changes,Indian Economy will face the music.Indian GDP for instance with fast measures has grown like lightning in last four years with new policies.
India's process of economic reform is firmly rooted in a political consensus that spans her diverse political parties. India's democracy is a known and stable factor, which has taken deep roots over nearly half a century. Importantly, India has no fundamental conflict between its political and economic systems. Its political institutions have fostered an open society with strong collective and individual rights and an environment supportive of free economic enterprise.

India's time tested institutions offer foreign investors a transparent environment that guarantees the security of their long term investments. These include a free and vibrant press, a judiciary which can and does overrule the government, a sophisticated legal and accounting system and a user friendly intellectual infrastructure. India's dynamic and highly competitive private sector has long been the backbone of its economic activity. It accounts for over 75% of its Gross Domestic Product and offers considerable scope for joint ventures and collaborations.

Today, India is one of the most exciting emerging markets in the world. Skilled managerial and technical manpower that match the best available in the world and a middle class whose size exceeds the population of the USA or the European Union, provide India with a distinct cutting edge in global competition.
bye!

People have been predicting America's fall almost since her birth. First we couldn't survive without Britain, then we couldn't stay together after the Civil War, the Cold War was expected to bring us down along with the USSR and people have waioted in vain for many years for top-heavy socialist Europe to develop into a counterbalance.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of this year the World Bank and IMF predicted that the US economy would grow much faster than all of Europe combined for the next twenty years, EU enlargement would actually slow EU growth as economically struggling nations enter and put additional strains on the whole EU economy and US brand name hegemony was almost complete worldwide.

Some economists are already predicting that the Chinese bubble will burst soon, as Chinese companies will soon face the dilemma of outsourcing vs losing the competitive edge. The US exports research, technology and medical advancements. China epxorts textiles, something the US long ago yielded to Taiwan, Mexico and Indonesia.

The decline and fall of the US appears to be no more substantial than wishful thinking on the part of our enemies.

finally someone who agrees with me. And yes US is definetely in the best position overall it cant constrict the growth of china while china cannot reciprocate. I tried to show that in my thread but Undicided always twists my words around. Outsourcing will begin to subside because its much harder to monitor two national planes of influence then one if your not a multi-national corp. Lots of companies didnt yeild the results they wished from outsourcing and their investments are creating growth & pushing their expenses on the outsource side faster up then they expected.

I m gonna try to summirize my china argument now; China peged currency to US dollar, dollar falls = yuan falls , inflation skyrocketing = cost of goods up = cost of raw materials up but demand is pegged to the dollar value of the pegged dollar. Ergo any increase in Chinese price upwards mobility = double the amount of price disincentive for their goods in the US. Trade wise this is a US victory because it equalizes the trade deficit even though it appears to be still Chinese favored one but it discounts the fact that we are paying 80cents for a 1dollar chinese good thats costing them 1dollar externally. If they take out the peg now they will in effect be reducing their dollar exports to the US volume wise and the trade deficit will reduce in both number and real terms.

Well, it is an obvious fact that what gos up, must come down. The question here is the timescale. At the moment I am guessing about 50 years. Some here would say much less than that, but either way, the US share of global trade, a rough guage of its comparable power, is far lower than it was 50 years ago when it loaded the world institution dice in its favour.

Here is an interesting trend. What do you think this would lead to?

With outsoucing going on, if one million jobs leave the country that is equivalent to 6 million job loss, since the earnings would no more create the multiplying effect. Now, as the tax base erodes, there will be less money for social spending. In the meantime, our prison population is going through the roof. New prisons are being built all over the country.

As we all know, the prison system is a college for small time hoodloom to graduate to a hardcore criminal. With money going to war and watching the terrorists, there may not be money left for the care and feeding of these criminals. So States and even Federal prisons have to let many go free to make room for more bunk beds.

It seems to me, we will have a large number of criminals walking on the streets along with the gun toting unemployed. If that would not decline America fast, I do not know what would!

i bet you anything America falls from a superoiwer with 2050.

If I was as retarded or moronic, I think I would be as bitter as you missy.What makes you think Western Civilization will be extinct? Intermarriage? Cross breeding? What does mating have to with idealism?

The fact that Western Civilization is the most oppressive toward it's citizens, and citizens that want nothing to do with it. People are starting to come to terms with this. Can any power or Civilization remain in power when the people stop supporting it? It has nothing to do with breeding; it has to do with opression and tyranny. Plain and simple.


There are Hindus, Chinese, Phillipino, Serbian, Russian, African, Australian people all the way over there in the East living just like Amercians or Western Europeans. Western civilization, its fuctions and cog wheels is both appealing and it works.

If it works, why has it bred the most violent, disturbed generations of human beings that have ever existed? How is this success? I bet if you ask the average Joe that is working his ass off for minimum wage to support himself, if he enjoys that and wants it to remain that way he will reply "fuck no". Isn't life about happiness and enjoyment? Dont we need to shrug the burdens of Capitalism and the other un-democratic aspects of this society off for us to find these things within ourselves?


Kgmuru:
No, minorities are not a problem because most of them (if not all) are dumb as dirt.

Statements like that make you look like quite the idiot. If you truly believe that intelligence and superiority go along with social status, you are sadly mistaken. If the 'minorities' of today eventually outnumber the white population, then whouldn't that make us the minority at that point? I assume that you can see that if we follow your logic, the second that the 'minorites' pass up the white population, then the white population immediatley becomes "dumb as dirt". Grow a brain.

Grow a brain.

You sir, are an idiot trying to put other peoples words in my mouth. It is time for you to grow a brain that works. Apology will be accepted. :confused:

I wouldn't gloat to much, The end of America will most likely bring the end of all the countries that make us products.

It is very curious argument. Foreign countries make products, sell them to the US and get crispy $ in exchange. Problem is that US does not produce enough of goods those crispy $ can buy. Effectively, foreigners give away their sweat and labor for free hoping that US will find ways to honor crispy $ with real stuff in the future (fat chance). Entire world trade is a gigantic ponzi scheme kept together on the irrational faith in $. The last foreign sucker stuck with $ will pay for the American over consumption. Therefore, the end of America (if any) will be an unpleasant but far from being terminal experience for the rest of the world. Stopping working for free did not kill anyone yet.

The beauty of the American system is that while we will suffer pretty badly when the system crashes we will recover faster than might be expected. The entire American system is set up to reward innovation. Other systems do the same thing but it seems like greed permeates America’s culture more thoroughly.

I agree to a point. Greed works, because people who have the money get greedy for more and hire people from USA to produce whatever good or service they come up with. Now, if the same greedy people move the innovation overseas so that they can produce stuff cheaper, then, common folks are out of luck. In otherwords, no domestic investment, no jobs....

The only thing left to do and we do very well is make bombs and missiles...meaning we start more wars and sell more weapons as we did in WWI and WWII.

We are destroying the old weapons in Iraq and selling them new ones from Iraq's oil money. If that is what you are talking about, you are right. But whether that would improve America....who knows?

U.S. haters,

U.S. is the most stable country in the world. If any of you do not like this fact, go pound some sand. If you are still not satisfied after pounding some sand, go pound some more sand!

What exactly does "pounding sand" do anyway?

I've always wondered about that.

"Pounding sand" makes sand pounded! :D

U.S. is the most stable country in the world.

Actually my bets are on Japan for being the most stable democracy in the world. The EU the most stable socio-economic union, and the US is the world's most stable debtor, it never fails.

Countries are like families through the generations in sense. Though a generation for a country is more like a 100-year cycle. If you look at the way America has advanced you could compare it to a family accumulating wealth and power through its generations. But just like a family of wealth and power the general rules seem to be applying to America. The first generation makes it, the second generation exploits it and the third generation squanders it. In the end power and money are eroded to the point that the legacy is in ruin. Welcome to the third generation in the history of America.

Welcome to sciforum sassybeau.

Is that what happened to the Mayans, Greeks, Romans, Indians, even Argentinians etc many moons ago?

Do they ever recover? It seems, Indians are trying, Argentina, like Greece and Italy going no where and African never got there.

Just like families who lost the money and fight among themselve for the next few generations - perhaps the same happens to the countries. People fight among themselves in ignorance. I know a family whose income was $12,500,000 per month in 1930s, but now their grandchildren, the lucky ones, barely make $12,500.

What exactly does "pounding sand" do anyway?
It often is referred to as 'packing sand'. It refers to shoving it where the sun doesn't shine. And, no, I have no idea where the insult originated.

First off, we are an industrialized nation with as good an infrastructure as you will ever see. First World nations rarely fall and never fall for long. Look at post-WWI Germany. It had its industries and infrastructure demolished as far as we could manage and yet they still got up and kicked Europe's asses only a few years later. Once industrialized, always industrialized.

That isn't to say that we will necessarily remain as the untouchable god of the world. Enough problems could slow us down enough for something to surpass us. We would still have enough advantages to reclaim our rightful place the moment pressure lets up.

There are only a couple countries that could ever actually compete. The Soviet Union did for a while, though it broke itself doing so, due to its immense resources and citizenry who were basically ordered around like slave labor. China, while with far fewer rescources, has a vastly bigger labor pool. The same might be said for India, but they are a few steps behind in both organization and infrastructure. Japan could have only done it if they had held onto their colonies.

The rest of the world falls short for one reason or another and just won't make it as a superpower. We can scratch both Africa and South America off the board due to their marginal industrialization and an environment that is generally hostile to human life. Australia is a strip of arable land around a big honking pile of sand, industrialized but lacking resources and population. Russia and the Middle East are too fucked up with internal problems to do anything. Individually, countries in europe are too small to do anything. As the EU, they are too divided and have already burned out most of their resources in previous ages.

So here America sits. We have the largest agriculture industry anywhere. We are still brimming with natural resources that we still haven't been able to use up since the country was settled. We have an immense amount of usable land still untouched and ready to be put to work. We have companies spread to the four corners of the world, all drawing forth whatever resources we can't produce ourselves. And, while we have been neglecting industry because it is better to get others to do the dirty work for us, we could bring it all back at a moment's notice once it becomes profitable once again.

What about Ottoman Turkey? For 100 years 1470 to 1570 they were the world's leading economic and military power. Their time passed. What is it about the industrial / information age that makes you think the phenomena of nations rising and fading in power relative to each other has ended?

The US governments policy to allow America to first lose it's manufacturing base and now lose it's information technologies base to other nations is as stupid as the mistakes of the Sultans who oversaw the decline of the Ottomans. The exchange rates and image of America seem to be lagging behind reality. America's economy is becomming a hollow economy because global money pouring into America in search of secure stable investments allows America to consume without producing. The money seeking the secure stability of the American financial markets is destabilizing the American economy and therefore will eventually destabilize the American financial markets. Meanwhile the majority of our media pundits and political leaders fiddle while Rome burns.

If we stop subsidizing our agriculture we will lose much of that also to lower cost nations. We have very good per capita natural resources but so does Congo. We are screwed but we won't see the hard evidence that we are screwed until after the foreign investors realize that their faith in America was misplaced.

Lets not forget that more than half of the U.S GNP are multinational companies, meaning a decline in the U.S economy is equal to a great decline in the world economy in general. Don't believe me? just look at the NYSE or DOW companies. By this, American investment is largely foreign investment and they play a big part in it. If the royal families and Asian empires pull out of the NYSE the market will suffer, but where else are they going to invest in? is there a better market elsewhere? This is the melting pot of the world in terms of people culture and thus demand, as the saying goes a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush. So this is why everyone is interested in America, not just for America as well but for their own good. I think America's economy has long term plans. Even if the E.U eventually establishes a constitution its economy cannot resemble that of the U.S unless its citizens and ideas are similar. Currently most countries of the E.U like France are largely government oriented, the government keeps an account of everything including subsidies, with little attention paid towards individual capitalism, which is why their immigration terms are still uniquely strict. You can barely find a piece of cheese in France that has not been subsidized by the municipals. In the states everyone is given more economical freedom, which is the reason it can also afford to be an immigrant state. The U.S still has reasons to be the worlds largest economy but why many E.U countries are baffles me because most of them have no real natural resources. If there is a world economic breakdown and we are to fall back on resources the U.S still has an edge compared to the E.U. They have huge reserved of oil for starters, and have now annexed Irag to make a bigger reservior. Finally, through history the one with the biggest guns prospers.With the right leaders of America and an adequate conservative attitude the sky is the limit.

It is the super greed by the few that declines a society...from Greeks to Romans to the Kings and on....When the hands that feeds them get chopped off...the body dies....such is the nature of the world...


Nevermind that the Roman Empire lasted 1500 years. The US is doomed in a little over 200. :bugeye:


:m:

Actually, the Roman Empire died a number of times. It is just that it was able to get up again time after time. Who says America can't do the same? We are holding nearly all the cards right now.

All of you have excellent observations and they all are true. But it is like 3 blindmen describing an elephant (including yours truly). Can we understand the big picture...where are we going?

Here in America, the government encourages small business development since they are still the backbone of the country or at least has been for hundreds of years. Just in the last 10 years, these PTAC offices that support small business, are headed by idiots who can not connect the dots, meaning their hands are tied such a way that if you have a company in Indiana and want to open an office in Kansas, neither the Kansas nor the Indiana PTAC can help you. Since most businesses today are basically interstate or international, the old system is useless. Same with Small Business Adminstration. It is a place where government dumps all affirmative action reject people in the name of racial harmony. And everyone is afraid to say they are idiots.

In the name of efficiency and productivity we waste too much money and resources in non-productive work such as pumping out thousands of laws every year and have to hire law givers. The Roman civilization collapsed in the seer weight of these law givers. Then America spends 10% to 13% of its GDP in Healthcare, yet every year people are getting sicker. Today, a 70 year old usually takes 10 types of medicine per day - some more. Even an elephant will die if this type of bleeding continues year after year.

Then, the outsourcing - for the first time in the last 50 years, the high school graduate does not expect a job in a call center or factory or an engineer in a factory or back office.

So, where are we going? If disasters ahead, what will save us? Mind you the law makers will keep making more laws, the police department will keep getting bigger, more prisons, the Justice department will get bigger, the military will get really big saying China is a threat but has to buy Chinese arms and computers (what a irony!) and people will get sicker.

Comapring the Romans to the U.S. The Romans had their resources stretched almost around the globe, which was the ultimate reason for their demise. Furthermore the Romans had no long term plans, I mean these were people who would waste resources on invading a settlement only to leave it the way it was because they had no use for it. First world countries today have to keep imperialism to a minimum if they want to prosper, no question, need I mention global terrorism, domestic crisis, and political instabilities. Obviously through history no single region holds power for too long, but today looks a little different. The world is still in a disastrous cold war region as any nuclear action can make mankind's fate indecisive, its sort of like a stand off game. Nuclear nations are weary of each other and as so immidiately taking care of any other nation even thinking about develoing one, making half the world a nuclear cartel while the other half march as soon as orders or demands are given. What kind of world do we live in when France itself can level half the hemisphere with its nuclear missles? There you are. At the moment China is the greatest threat to any nation; don't get me wrong I love the Chinese, these guys have one of the oldest and most impressive civilization. Little attention has been paid to China until today, they deserve more than they already get. However China used to be the economic super powers of the world twice in history, but failed to make anything tangible from it, partly and sadly because they had no imperialist plans, not even economicaly. Through history economic superiority sadly goes along with imperialism if you are going to sustain it or make a mark on the world, and with technology that journey is a lot shorter today.

However China used to be the economic super powers of the world twice in history, but failed to make anything tangible from it, partly and sadly because they had no imperialist plans, not even economicaly. Through history economic superiority sadly goes along with imperialism if you are going to sustain it or make a mark on the world, and with technology that journey is a lot shorter today.

Two issues. China had the opportunity long ago when they had fleets of ship connecting to many part of the world in trade. But, I can not remember the name of the emperor (see Guns, Germs and Steel) who did not want to go outside of the country since, China was very prosperous at the time. The decline came after that. Same for India who did spice trade from middle east to Thailand but somehow lost that profession.

It is not Imperialism but trade that made India and China rich, that is because they were large countries with large population that sustained the many products for sell to others.

With technology, that journey is definitely shorter today. However as our (USA) technology moves to China and India, there is nothing to fill the gap. I just came back from an area economic development meeting. None of the participants wanted to discuss Technology, they wanted to put money in Science, which did provide us with a lot of benefit in the past. The problem is, to convert Science to Technology, now, you have to have it manufactured in China, which they gladly will do and sell it to us - rather than we selling them our products.

I read the thread all the way through (including my post on India)...Its interesting. I have some thoughts on U.S. drivers currently.

The way i see it, the strategy of U.S. currently it seems is to control the Oil nations in the world. UAE is U.S.'s friend, Iraq is U.S.,People are already talking off Iran...you see a pattern developing here?...

I have heard that Alaska and some places in U.S. have some of the biggest Oil reserves in the world. I bet U.S. is waiting till the oil reserves in middle east blow out to sell them at oh not so attractive prices.

Job Scenario : Job situation in U.S. is getting better everyday. jobs have been on all time high in recent months and rising (Courtesy: CNN live).

Research and development : Current objective of several competitve Asian countries are clear cut but they are way too far off than U.S. Let me ellaborate. I was at this conference where Craig Barrett was addressing the ASIAN CEOs, and he gave an interesting insight : India spends about 8 billion dollars (TOTAL) in research and development, Intel Inc. spends 10 times more than that, leave aside U.S. India and other nations are Following U.S. in short. Unless and untill some serious research and innovation is bought about, India and others will merely follow what U.S. is producing or developing. To win is essentially to do things differently and in a much better way, is india doing that? i dont think so.

If we want to discuss the research and development in U.S, we have to take a look at universites like Stanford and MIT. i have my cousin studying at Stanford, he is a research assistant under a professor who has been researching on Robotic hands since loong time. He tells me that professor has conducted research on hands movement purely by watching subjects for past 5 years and now they are building a perfect emulation of human hand capable of all the stimulation etc. That is the kind of research we are talking off, this was a small example, however most of these top end univ. are doing research of things to come in next 30 years already. and universities like NJIT,USC,UCSD,UWash. etc are doing research on current technology, so eventually U.S. is making sure that most of the new cutting edge technology is here in next decade only introduced in U.S. True eventually a technology will become a commodity, but its that initial competitve advantage that drives U.S. ahead. Silicon valley was nothing in 50s. it was where people like steve jobs grew up. But the technological advances and entire computer revolution started in u.s. only and dot com and god knows how many industries were successful and made US. economy strong.

Lets not forget, US. is famous for pioneering. the product lines are the most ellaborate in these countries because the customer range is far greater than any country. In india, you have money , but you dont have products on which you'd want your money to go into. In US. money gets short in supply but products are so exhaustive and detailed.

Computer hardware is a solid example: People in U.S. are already using 100 gig drives more than that. (i use 250 Gigs and i am not a memory geek or anything),in India people use 40 Gigs and still marvel at how much it is. Most of sold computer hardware works in bits and pieces, many people would prefer a computer with less than decent config to run internet applications. and lets not forget 80% of indian subcontinent doesnt actually use computers. In fact china is much better in this sector.

Indian economy is being projected as in Boom. Boom? are we talking of share markets? yes they are at all time high, but how many people invest money in share markets? they are hardly 2 or 3 per cent. India will only improve if agriculture and education is given top priority. Infrastructure comes next and then innovation. India is jumping into this vogue that U.S. has given to it. The so called software revolution, its facade, the reality is that Indian villages (i know some ) dont even have electricity coming to their houses. In rajastthan(a state), many villages suffer from severe droughts every year, what is being done ? nothing. In gujarat there are floods every year, every year so many people die, what is being done? nothing. Weather dept. of india in my opinion could have warned people of the coast in case of tsunami, but the truth is they dont know anything.

U.S. is faar off from all the countries because of its unadulterated Education (at University level), which implicates good research, something which India lacks.

It is one of those, glass is half full vs. half empty scenario...but the truth is, it is not full....here is what I saw on job scenario. Another problem I just saw in CNN is that part of USA is changing to a different language other than English, which in 100 years would want their own country as in Europe.

Watching the Economy Crumble
http://www.propagandamatrix.com/articles/august
2005/100805economycrumble.htm
Paul Craig Roberts | August 10 2005

The US continues its descent into the Third World, but you would never know it from news reports of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July payroll jobs release.

The media gives a bare bones jobs report that is misleading. The public heard that 207,000 jobs were created in July. If not a reassuring figure, at least it is not a disturbing one. On the surface things look to be pretty much OK. It is when you look into the composition of these jobs that the concern arises.

Of the new jobs, 26,000 (about 13%) are tax-supported government jobs. That leaves 181,000 private sector jobs. Of these private sector jobs, 177,000, or 98%, are in the domestic service sector.

Here is the breakdown of the major categories:

• 30,000 food servers and bar tenders;
• 28,000 health care and social assistance:
• 12,000 real estate;
• 6,000 credit intermediation;
• 8,000 transit and ground passenger transportation;
• 50,000 retail trade; and
• 8,000 wholesale trade.
(There were 7,000 construction jobs, most of which were filled by Mexicans immigrants.)

Not a single one of these jobs produces a tradable good or service that can be exported or serve as an import substitute to help reduce the massive and growing US trade deficit. The US economy is employing people to sell things, to move people around, and to serve them fast food and alcoholic beverages. The items may have an American brand name, but they are mainly made off shore. For example, 70% of Wal-Mart’s goods are made in China.

Where are the jobs for the 65,000 engineers the US graduates each year? Where are the jobs for the physics, chemistry, and math majors? Who needs a university degree to wait tables and serve drinks, to build houses, to work as hospital orderlies, bus drivers, and sales clerks?

In the 21st century job growth in the US economy has consistently reflected that of a Third World country--low productivity domestic services jobs. This goes on month after month and no one catches on--least of all the economists and the policymakers.

Economists assume that every high productivity, high paying job that is shipped out of the country is a net gain for America. We are getting things cheaper, they say. Perhaps, for a while, until the dollar goes. What the cheaper goods argument overlooks are the reductions in the productivity and pay of employed Americans and in the manufacturing, technical, and scientific capability of the US economy.

What is the point of higher education when the job opportunities in the economy do not require it?

These questions are too difficult for economists, politicians, and newscasters. Instead, we hear that “last month the US economy created 207,000 jobs.”

Television has an inexhaustible supply of optimistic economists.

Last weekend CNN had John Rutledge (erroneously billed as the person who drafted President Reagan’s economic program) explaining that the strength of the US economy was “mom and pop businesses.” The college student with whom I was watching the program broke out laughing.

What mom and pop businesses? Everything that used to be mom and pop businesses has been replaced with chains and discount retailers. Auto parts stores are chains, pharmacies are chains, restaurants are chains. Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and Lowes, have destroyed hardware stores, clothing stores, appliance stores, building supply stores, gardening shops, whatever--you name it.

Just try starting a small business today. Most gasoline station/convenience stores seem to be the property of immigrant ethnic groups who acquired them with the aid of a taxpayer-financed US government loan.

Today a mom and pop business is a cleaning service that employs Mexicans, a pool service, a lawn service, or a limo service.

In recent years the US economy has been kept afloat by low interest rates. The low interest rates have fueled a real estate boom. As housing prices rise, people refinance their mortgages, take equity out of their homes and spend the money, thus keeping the consumer economy going.

The massive American trade and budget deficits are covered by the willingness of Asian countries, principally Japan and China, to hold US government bonds and to continue to acquire ownership of America’s real assets in exchange for their penetration of US markets.

This game will not go on forever. When it stops, what is left to drive the US economy?

I am an American ex-pat that has been living in the Philippines for 9+ years. Here you cannot wave the flag, even if you want to. Sice the problems pre 9/11., we have been isolated and like Egypt, Greece, Rome, etc. are time will come when we are no longer the "standard that people used to think we are. The sooner we accept that the better for the world. There are a lot of Brits here that still think that England is the "king" or"queen" of the planet, although their glory days died a long time ago. We live in a global unit now, and the sooner we forget about artificial dotted lines called boundaries, the better off we will all be.

To keep it in perspective, Egypt, Greece, Rome and even UK are in a different category than America. America or more appropriately North America is in the league of China and India which lasts for thousands of years - that is because of the land size, climate, number of people and geographical location. It will take a lot, like an asteroid strike to kill North America. I think, it will get worse before it gets better, that is because, the idiots are running the country. When there is a real need, people usually rise to the occasion - that is how America was built. Those qualities are still there but as the under current...