Tensions continued to rise between the Republic of the Philippines and People’s Republic of China as the battle for the Spratly Islands have been reborn anew. It is a dormant and sensitive issue for years, a very long dispute between the sorrounding Southeast Asian countries over their territorial boundaries in the islands.

While US government through US Ambassador Harry Thomas said that they would honor their commitments with the Philippines, I've heared that Chinese Leaders are seeking allies against US encirclement.

Is there a posibility of US & Philippines vs China & India war?

Tensions continued to rise between the Republic of the Philippines and People’s Republic of China as the battle for the Spratly Islands have been reborn anew. It is a dormant and sensitive issue for years, a very long dispute between the sorrounding Southeast Asian countries over their territorial boundaries in the islands.

While US government through US Ambassador Harry Thomas said that they would honor their commitments with the Philippines, I've heared that Chinese Leaders are seeking allies against US encirclement.

Is there a posibility of US & Philippines vs China & India war?

Nope, no way. In the first place, none of those countries would even be remotely interested in fighting such a war. :shrug: Not only would the costs be *enormous*, considering the area involved it would require naval operations - and both China and India have practically NO seapower to speak of.

the problem will continue to linger (just like N. & S. Korea) and all activities (if any at all) will be handled through diplomatic and possibly economic channels.

Nope, no way. In the first place, none of those countries would even be remotely interested in fighting such a war. :shrug: Not only would the costs be *enormous*, considering the area involved it would require naval operations - and both China and India have practically NO seapower to speak of.

the problem will continue to linger (just like N. & S. Korea) and all activities (if any at all) will be handled through diplomatic and possibly economic channels.
But the Spratly islands are believed to be rich in oil and gas deposits.

But the Spratly islands are believed to be rich in oil and gas deposits.

So? Neither China or India is equipped for such a battle, there's oil in other places and the U.S. has plenty of natural gas that will last for decades. Why bother fighting a VERY expensive war for it? :shrug:

So? Neither China or India is equipped for such a battle, there's oil in other places and the U.S. has plenty of natural gas that will last for decades. Why bother fighting a VERY expensive war for it? :shrug:
Apart from the oii, of course, there are other string attached. For example, the US is demanding for the Philippines to pass the Reproductive Health Bill as enunciated by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton etc

Apart from the oii, of course, there are other string attached. For example, the US is demanding for the Philippines to pass the Reproductive Health Bill as enunciated by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton etc

Are you saying that could actually help lead to war between three of the largest nations in the world?!?!?

Are you saying that could actually help lead to war between three of the largest nations in the world?!?!?
No, I didn't say that it could actually lead to war. Otherwise, there would be a violation on international law (Unclos).

Tensions continued to rise between the Republic of the Philippines and People’s Republic of China as the battle for the Spratly Islands have been reborn anew. It is a dormant and sensitive issue for years, a very long dispute between the sorrounding Southeast Asian countries over their territorial boundaries in the islands.

It isn't just the Philippines. Vietnam claims some of the Spratleys and has recently had confrontations with Chinese naval vessels in the area. Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei also have claims that China dismisses. So China's aggressive claims to ownership of the entire South China Sea has managed to put China at odds with all of the other countries that border on it. Several of those countries are physically much closer to the Spratleys than China is.


While US government through US Ambassador Harry Thomas said that they would honor their commitments with the Philippines, I've heared that Chinese Leaders are seeking allies against US encirclement.

The United States will honor its commitments to all of its allies. The US supporting its Southeast Asian friends isn't "encirclement" of China, but it probably is unwelcome American activity in a part of the world that the rising Chinese power is laying claim to as its own sphere of influence.


Is there a posibility of US & Philippines vs China & India war?

I think that there's a real, albeit remote, chance of a US-China war. I'm not sure if the Spratley thing would be what triggered it. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan might be a more likely cause. That's probably one reason why the Chinese are currently being more aggressive in the Spratleys, since the opposition in that area are a collection of smaller states that are militarily much weaker than China. Some of them, like Vietnam, aren't really all that close to the US. So China saber-rattles in the Spratleys now, while it waits on carrying out its threats against Taiwan until its military build-up puts it closer to super-power military parity with the US.

I don't understand why your scenario has India fighting alongside China. India doesn't have any territorial claims in the South China sea. It is interested in freedom of navigation there, which would naturally make it skeptical of Chinese claims that it owns the entire sea. More generally, India is very concerned about rising Chinese power and New Delhi is very aware that Beijing lays claim to a large amount of Indian territory. (Almost the entirety of Arunachal Pradesh.) India and China have fought border clashes in the past. And India obviously isn't thrilled with the Chinese seizure of Tibet. As a result of all that, the Indians have been making discreet overtures to the United States about an increased security alliance. (Both India and the US are very concerned about Pakistan as well.) So if the US ever got into a war with China, I'm not entirely certain that India would support the American side, but it almost certainly wouldn't be fighting on the Chinese side.

I am an Indian. India is a democracy and as it happens in most of the democracies Government takes decision based on public openion.

Indians do not view China as a friend rather as pointed out in post above Indians are not happy by China's claim and stapled vista policy to an Indian province “Arunachal Pradesh”. Also growing presence of China in Indian Ocean has also not been taken kindly by most of the Indians. Chinas military support to Pakistan is also alarming to most of the Indians. Indian defense spending are also aimed to counter China and Pakistan.

So I do not see any scenario in which India and China will on the same side of a war. On the contrary Indian Government will be under immense pressure to puts its logistics and military support behind Philippines or Japan in case of confrontation between these country and China

In the early 21st century, the situation is improving. China recently held talks with ASEAN countries aimed at realizing a proposal for a free trade area between the ten countries involved. China and ASEAN have also been engaged in talks to create a code of conduct aimed at easing tensions in the disputed islands. On 5 March 2002, an agreement was reached, setting forth the desire of the claimant nations to resolve the problem of sovereignty "without further use of force"[citation needed]. In November 2002, a Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea was signed, easing tensions but falling short of a legally binding code of conduct.

[edit] Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea 2002

This declaration[9] was signed by the 10 foreign ministers of ASEAN countries and China on 4 November 2002 in Phnom Penh where the signatory countries pledged to resolve their sovereignty disputes in a peaceful manner, without resorting to the use of force and through direct negotiations among the countries concerned. The parties also undertook to exercise self-restraint with activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, including refraining from inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands_dispute