View Full Version : What will your job be in 10 years?


Jagger
01-26-04, 06:42 AM
So what will your next job be? Better make sure it can't be done cheaper overseas. Maybe I should rephrase the question as where will your job be in 10 years.

From todays NYT. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/26/opinion/26HERB.html

Education Is No Protection
By BOB HERBERT

The conference was held discreetly in the Westin New York hotel in Times Square last week, and by most accounts it was a great success.

The main objections came from a handful of protesters who stood outside in a brutally cold wind waving signs that said things like "Stop Sending Jobs Overseas" and "Put America Back to Work." No one paid them much attention.

The conference was titled "Offshore Outsourcing: Making the Journey Work for Your Corporation." Its goal was to bring executives up to speed on the hot new thing in corporate America, the shipment of higher-paying white-collar jobs to countries with eager, well-educated and much lower-paid workers.

"We basically help companies figure out how to offshore I.T. [information technology] and B.P. [business process functions]," said Atul Vashistha, the chief executive of NeoIT, a California consulting firm that co-hosted the conference.

Several big-name corporations had representatives at the conference, including Procter & Gamble, Motorola, Cisco Systems and Gateway.

Because the outsourcing of white-collar jobs is so controversial and politically charged (especially in a presidential election year), there was a marked reluctance among many of the participants to speak publicly about it. But Mr. Vashistha showed no reluctance. He was quick to proselytize.

"These companies understand very clearly that this is a very painful process for their employees and for American jobs in the short term," he said. "But they also recognize that if they don't do this, they will lose more jobs in the future and they won't have an ability to grow in the future."

He said his firm had helped clients ship about a billion dollars' worth of projects offshore last year.

Noting that he is an American citizen who was born in India, Mr. Vashistha said he is convinced that outsourcing will prove to be a long-term boon to the U.S. economy as well as the economies of the countries acquiring the exported jobs.

Whether it becomes a boon to the U.S. economy or not, the trend toward upscale outsourcing is a fact, and it is accelerating. In an important interview with The San Jose Mercury News last month, the chief executive of Intel, Craig Barrett, talked about the integration of India, China and Russia — with a combined population approaching three billion — into the world's economic infrastructure.

"I don't think this has been fully understood by the United States," said Mr. Barrett. "If you look at India, China and Russia, they all have strong education heritages. Even if you discount 90 percent of the people there as uneducated farmers, you still end up with about 300 million people who are educated. That's bigger than the U.S. work force."

He said: "The big change today from what's happened over the last 30 years is that it's no longer just low-cost labor that you are looking at. It's well-educated labor that can do effectively any job that can be done in the United States."

In Mr. Barrett's view, "Unless you are a plumber, or perhaps a newspaper reporter, or one of these jobs which is geographically situated, you can be anywhere in the world and do just about any job."

You want a national security issue? Trust me, this threat to the long-term U.S. economy is a big one. Why it's not a thunderous issue in the presidential campaign is beyond me.

Intel has its headquarters in Silicon Valley. A Mercury News interviewer asked Mr. Barrett what the Valley will look like in three years. Mr. Barrett said the prospects for job growth were not good. "Companies can still form in Silicon Valley and be competitive around the world," he said. "It's just that they are not going to create jobs in Silicon Valley."

He was then asked, "Aren't we talking about an entire generation of lowered expectations in the United States for what an individual entering the job market will be facing?"

"It's tough to come to another conclusion than that," said Mr. Barrett. "If you see this increased competition for jobs, the immediate response to competition is lower prices and that's lower wage rates."

We can grapple with this problem now, and try to develop workable solutions. Or we can ignore this fire in the basement of the national economy until it rages out of our control.

hypewaders
01-26-04, 08:10 AM
Now that corporate interests have steered US policy to a severely damaging course for hard times, and now that the US government has committed to "Staying the Course", transnational corporations will do what they do best, and look out for #1. Washington's "Bring 'em On" has already been answered by the world's "Who do you think you are?", followed by CorpWorld's "Move Em' Out". Now we are waiting for realization to elicit a resounding collective American "Doh!"

cosmictraveler
01-26-04, 09:38 AM
I'll be retired still in 10 years ......or dead! :)

Undecided
01-26-04, 04:21 PM
Public Sector Jobs Rock!

SpyMoose
01-26-04, 04:43 PM
The only way I can see out of this pickle is for Americans (who have had it too good for too long according to the marketplace) to expatriate, to places like India who are getting these jobs, and start companies that set the bar in employee wages and benefits. If we can have a crack team of entrepreneurs to do this, we can simply RUIN all these nations that corporations want to outsource to by spoiling their employees the American way! So how about it? Which one of us is patriot enough to improve the standard of living of a foreign nation?

Undecided
01-26-04, 04:57 PM
That would possibly collapse the Global economy, you have to understand that capitalism needs to exploit someone.

Xerxes
01-27-04, 11:14 PM
Anything is possible. In fact, it looks like these are the beginnings of a new, *even bigger* .com boom. I have three sites planned for the spring/summer to get me started, in time for Uni which I'll begin in the fall (computer science.) I don't care what anybody says about job prospects, outsourcing, or anything else related to the field. The reason I say this is because the biggest surprises usually happen in the most unlikely places..and if people expect such poor prospects in computer science, then I'd be glad to prove them wrong.

Another course that'll be hot for the job market is Linguistics..for obvious reasons.

Economists simply can't predict things based on the natural flow of jobs. There are a million other factors such as politics, the environment and cultural change that play much bigger roles in the economy. The only advice I can give is to not waste time worrying and listen to your gut.

certified psycho
01-28-04, 09:18 AM
i would probably say that my job will be something in the hanging out with hot supermodels :D :D

certified psycho
01-30-04, 05:15 PM
owning all these cars...... :D :)

kmguru
02-02-04, 08:44 PM
There is a prediction that 2012 will be a social disaster. Not withstanding those hokey predictions...as more middle class are laid off and end up flipping hamburgers...the purchasing power will wane and there could be a rapid spiral and social instability. Not much damage will happen in India Inc. because those workers are a very tiny percent of the total population, hence most of them would be out of jobs but have enough money to live off for years.

kmguru
02-02-04, 08:48 PM
Another outsourcing seminar: (Where you will hear a giant sucking sound of job loss)

When: Thursday, February 26, 2004

Where: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,
7th Street between Arch & Race Streets
Philadelphia

Time: 2:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., followed by a cocktail reception.

Cowboy
02-03-04, 12:02 AM
I'm trying to start two businesses at the moment, so the "what" aspect of the my job would be businessman.

If all works out as planned, both businesses could be run from pretty much anywhere, so that takes care of the "where" aspect.

I'm also in the process of trying to write a book but, again, that can be done from pretty much anywhere.

certified psycho
02-04-04, 02:46 PM
There is a prediction that 2012 will be a social disaster. Not withstanding those hokey predictions...as more middle class are laid off and end up flipping hamburgers...the purchasing power will wane and there could be a rapid spiral and social instability. Not much damage will happen in India Inc. because those workers are a very tiny percent of the total population, hence most of them would be out of jobs but have enough money to live off for years.
yes i have heard about this impending disater. But i heard it was something about us humans will ruin ourselfs, but i think that already happened :rolleyes:

zonabi
02-06-04, 08:09 PM
work for yourself. help others :)


yes i have heard about this impending disater. But i heard it was something about us humans will ruin ourselfs, but i think that already happened

there is hope!

buffys
02-06-04, 11:43 PM
10 years? I'll be God by then, obviously.

She's retiring in '06 and she promised I'm the next in line.

certified psycho
02-07-04, 09:52 AM
who the hell are you talkin about

kmguru
02-07-04, 11:49 AM
Looks like you are not the only psycho in town....:D

tablariddim
02-07-04, 11:54 AM
She means Ms. God

buffys
02-07-04, 01:00 PM
She means Ms. God

yes, thank you for explaing it to them, I assumed it was obvious.

kmguru
02-07-04, 02:37 PM
Nothing is obvious to psychos...they are in a whole different world....:D :D

certified psycho
02-07-04, 09:03 PM
yes to us psycho's that world is in a different view to the normals :D

Absane
02-08-04, 10:40 AM
10 years? Hmm. In theory I will have my Ph.D. in math 2010 or something. A few years after that, I have no clue. People alwaya ask me what I want to do... I am 19 and I still don't know. I might try working for a think-tank... that would be cool.

kmguru
02-08-04, 08:09 PM
May I recommend National Science Foundation or equivalent in your country.

Rick
02-11-04, 05:30 AM
The U.S. needless to say is scared! BPO is proving to be a "pain in ass" kind of thing for U.S. Whatever norms they pass is not going to affect India's status as BPO Superpower,since it would account for only 2% of jobs.
You have to understand that this is U.S. not India.Had this been India,People are emotional enough for nation to stop this.But U.S. is different.We aretalking about Millions or billions at stake here,Are the American Corps ready for such huge amts of losses? the question remains to be answered.Meanwhile this is not fair.If Americans are capable enough then why do Companies opt for this?

gee...

bye!

kmguru
02-11-04, 09:41 AM
The good and bad of BPO:

It is a good thing because some of the labor intensive activities can be done cheaply elsewhere. That could leave the company to hire more marketing and customer facing people. I know a friend of my kid who is rotting in a Fortune 10 company doing COBOL stuff. She had dreams of doing some exciting stuff while going to college in Comp Science.

So, theoretically, low price and higher productivity should benefit US Companies an hence overall economy.

Now the bad part:

Companies are smart enough for BPO which is basically telecommuting from overseas, yet dumb enough to do the same in USA. There are plenty of people who could work from home at much lower salary if given a chance using a broadband connection. I expected small office centers to pop up with broadband connection in rural communities for just such activities. That neve happened because the Human Resources department is dumb.

So, a lot of well paid people are out of work. That is a drag in the economy because the gain you make in efficiency does not help if you lost the customers. 30% of zero is always zero.

The sad part is, we do not have any real new fangled technology - simply because, the interest groups stifle innovation. Look at RIAA, MPAA etc that do not want new technology unless they can control it with higher price. The other part is Healthcare drags the economy and the price is going through the roof. Government spending will be an alltime high by 2008 due to a lot of retirement.

Bottom Line: You are heading for a crappy economy in 2008, BPO efficiency is neutralized by people out of work, class action law suits creates a major indirect tax, Healthcare sucks all the left overs and Corporations do not wish to use technology to employ people.

Calm before the storm.....enjoy while it lasts.....

Rick
02-11-04, 11:00 AM
Problem is that U.S doesnt have K.B. to do that apart from the Indians settled in U.S. itself.
If you take a look at Silicon Vally,you will find Zillions in fact most of big corporations(that includes IBM,Microsoft,AOL,Intel To name a few) have major percentage of Indians.India Calls it Brain Drain,as U.S proudly recruits all the cream Indian students by Luring them for Money.The problem now U.S. faces is that Indians are getting the same Stuff in India while staying at Home.Americans are in habbit of using India's manpowers,therefore Wiseness utilizing Intelligence of Indians is suddenly Backfiring.

BYE!

kmguru
02-11-04, 11:19 AM
In our society of JOCK mentality, what do you expect? :D

Albume27
02-17-04, 03:15 PM
Merchant Seman...not the sex stuff K

buffys
02-17-04, 04:10 PM
I always thought "Merchant Semen" was a sperm bank franchise.

Albume27
02-17-04, 04:14 PM
"Seaman" you fool must you take it so seriously?

buffys
02-17-04, 07:08 PM
oh! you meant seaman! how silly of me.

*sigh* :rolleyes:

kmguru
02-17-04, 09:12 PM
What you guys are talking about? While jobs are disappearing with a giant sucking sound.....:D

hypewaders
02-18-04, 07:39 PM
There's a whole world out there for people with skills and initiative. It may become important at some point to jump ship early, if the American brain drain starts to open wide. Fellow Americans, keep those passports valid, and remember it's never to soon to initiate the foreign work, residency and citizenship process.

buffys
02-18-04, 07:49 PM
what seems odd to me is every country claims they are suffering from a brain drain ... so where are they all going?

its just another way to justify anger toward the "evil, thieving foreigners" and for each government to redirect criticism.

hypewaders
02-18-04, 08:04 PM
"where are they all going?"

- Wherever their specialties are most in demand, and at least for me, where the culture and land seem most appealing. Ideally, we should all feel and be free to move about the planet.

kmguru
02-18-04, 10:56 PM
A U S T R A L I A

Albume27
02-19-04, 09:53 AM
hmmm Canada :)

kmguru
02-20-04, 11:28 PM
OR learn Spanish and start companies in Mexico...and in 50 years you will make a lot of money in the 'manana' country....:D

Stokes Pennwalt
03-11-04, 04:19 PM
I'm seriously considering leaving Raytheon for the nuclear power industry. Navy-trained nuke officers are in high demand, and will be even moreso with the imminent resurgence of nuclear power in the US. Within the next 10 years we'll see a plethora of new licenses granted for construction of new plants, and the modernization of older plants with new reactor designs.

And that ain't never goin overseas, dawg.

kmguru
03-11-04, 04:45 PM
Any jobs in defense industry or government would be good for the next 15 years. Look for the next new-new thing by then. OR make some products or service that needs customer facing so that it can not go overseas.

bitterchick
03-18-04, 05:54 PM
Our labor force has outpriced its utility. Unions have done many good and necessary things for labor in this country, but when someone is making $25 an hour to put in a screw and can't ever be fired, is it any shock that manufacturers are looking elsewhere for cheaper labor?

On top of that, we (Americans) want cheap stuff. We don't want to pay the inflated price for American-made products when we can get something cheaper, and very often of better quality, that's manufactured overseas. So while we bitch and moan about losing jobs overseas, as consumers we're not doing anything significant about it.

(She says, typing on her Dell manufactured in Malaysia, watching her Toshiba tv, and preparing to leave and drive her VW to rehearsal)

kmguru
03-18-04, 07:12 PM
At least she is eating the food made in the USA...or may be not....:D

The latest stupid comment is that for every one point (0.01) gain in productivity we will lose something like 2.3 million jobs. That is the economist answer to our job-loss recovery. At that rate if we double our productivity then we would lose all 230 million jobs. Just think about it.

Nebula
03-18-04, 07:54 PM
AT&T Wireless' outsourcing has been beneficial to me.

It gave me a sweet job :cool: .

...and I continue to enjoy the benefits of living in Canada...

kmguru
03-18-04, 08:52 PM
Outsourcing itself is not evil. It also boosts other economies especially the developing ones. It has to be encouraged along with a plan to manage the domestic economy in USA.