Will There Be A WWIII. Thoughts?

Discussion in 'World Events' started by clayton, Mar 31, 2010.

  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    In post 228 I noted that the war was economic and started about a decade ago. All have ignored this comment.
    Like most generals, posters are thinking only in terms of the last war. - Don't understand how badly the US is losing the current war.

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  3. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    What? an economic war?

    Were losing?

    What about the 13.4 trillion dollar GDP more than twice that of the runner up (Japan), how does that factor into your "analysis"?
     
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  5. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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    Until the Japanese Self-Defense Forces starts buying the exoskeletons.....their optical camouflage and robotics tech is also very impressive......
     
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  7. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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  8. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    Except none of it is even close to enterring production ability. And when they say they're impressive, it's usually at least in this stage of development for pretty much anything means, "It'll work 50% of the time and won't kill you....usually"
     
  9. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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  10. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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    Umm....the HAL 5.....Imagine if the japanese military got their hands on those....they probably modify it to add weapons and sensors and stuff. There is also an advanced personal combat equipment system ( NOT A MECH ) called "Gundam" ( for unknown reasons, maybe Gundam is just that iconic? ).....Well here is HAL 5

    http://www.cyberdyne.jp/english/robotsuithal/index.html

    There is also another more crappy one, that is intended for farmers, I forgot its name.....

    Also....Imagine if one day the Japanese army bought ASIMO and perfected it for combat.....
     
  11. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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    It doesn't change the trade deficit or the national debt....
     
  12. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    Yah, but our country has been in debt before, many times. Everything is cyclical, that's why I am personally not worried at all. Just ride it out and we'll see the light of day...
     
  13. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    Shogun, the Japanese are creative, problem is that less than 10% of those ideas will even be considered let alone perfected. The fact is that the US has figured out after a while how to screen out ideas that obviously won't work.

    Look at hal for example, the thing looks more like a fashion statement than a robot.

    The US actually already has a very effective exoskeleton in the works which is undergoing testing.

    Asimo can move at like 3 mph, by the time it reaches the battlefield the war would be over

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  14. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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    Lol.....I don't think Japan and China is going to get their money back anytime soon....
     
  15. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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    HAL actually works and amplifies the user's strength 10x, it is considered THE most advanced exoskeleton. It is light and doesn't restrict the user's movements. You can actually rent it if you want....but you have to be Japanese to rent it. ASIMO's speed is not bad for a robot that short....and if the Japanese army get their hands on it, surely they can improve it. It can ride on vehicles that can move MUCH faster. It have one really useful advantage: Stamina. It also can preform super complex calculations and stuff that robots are better then humans at....
     
  16. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    Well the fact is most of them are in bonds, you can't ask for a bond back, you get your money when the arranged agreement expires or you sell it to some other nation. You can't just demand the US to pay them... And the bonds are due over many years.
     
  17. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    Shogun, Im afraid your making the assumption that the Japanese army can make practically anything better.

    Asimo was US and were actually the best ones in the world at robotics.

    The first Exoskeleton was made by the US in the 1960's by General Electrics.

    The problem I see with HAL is the fact that it responds by "sensing" electrical signals. Problem is, they are already increadibly faint, and there is no way HAL can differentiate between a signal saying "flex your finger" and a signal saying "flex your arm". So I doubt HAL cana ctually do that considering nobody has yet been able to come close to untangling the way our muscles are wired. What it does do is that it only detects them in localized areas so while it can respond to them, it's only because there are so few servos that it doesn't need to overcomplicate itself.

    But HAL really isn't that extremely revolutionary.

    Actually the US is making the next revolutionary leap which is in myanmer polymers. They are long strands of polymers bundled together and when an electric current goes through them they "flex" like a human muscle. When they are perfected an exoskeleton could actually look like that suit from crysis I showed you and rely less on bulky servos.
     
  18. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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    Yeah, so that is why I don't think Japan and China are going to get their money back any time soon. "We didn't say we won't pay it, it is just we will pay it later.....( a LONG time later )" - US Government ( I made it up, but probably true ).
     
  19. Omega133 Aus der Dunkelheit Valued Senior Member

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    Yeah, we're in a tight situation financially. It may take a while to get out of.
     
  20. Shogun Bleed White and Blue! Valued Senior Member

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    What?? ASIMO is Japanese! It is made by Honda, and its first language was Nihongo ( Japanese ), ASIMO's japanese its probably better then mine!

    HAL does work, and it is proven to work, it is out for rent in Japan

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    I trust in the Japanese' teamwork, dedication, motivation and skills. They take work a lot more seriously then most Americans and Canadians.
     
  21. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    Im sorry I mixed that up with another old American robot.

    ? You now I would debate that had I the time that America as far as this kind of research is more hardworking. Starting with the fact that the only revolutionary leap made by HAL is making it look good with blue lights.
     
  22. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I say we are losing because at any time it wishes China can destroy the US economically. They do not wish that now, nor probably not for about five years more.

    China is spending its dollars held in reserves as fast as it prudently can to buy in long term contracts (20 or more years) energy (both oil and coal from African, SE Asian and South American owning countries, and natural gas from Russia and the "X-istans" of the Med East.) Also China is buying up mineral resources, especially from Australia & Brazil, in these long term contracts as well as even a lot of farm land in Africa mainly, to assure its self of needed food imports.

    China, for the last four months has also been reducing it holding of US Treasury's paper promises (bonds, etc) by buying less (nothing with maturities of 10 years or longer) and not rolling those of long maturities that mature. (China seems to think the dollar will be near worthless in ten years - rest of this post tells why this should be their POV.)

    China wants & needs a few years more to grow its domestic economy and reduce it dependence upon exports. It is making rapid progress in this area. The purchasing power of urbanites is growing at about 15% per year and that of rural folk at about 10% / year. With more purchasing power China is importing much more. So much so that last month China had a negative trade balance!

    In a few years when China has a domestic dominated economy and much less dollars in it reserves it will be to China's economic advantage to win the current economic war by dumping the remaining dollars on the market. That will rapidly decrease the value of the dollars and others will sell dollars too when it is obvious what China is doing to avoid further losses in value of their dollar reserves.

    I.e. a China can trigger a run on the dollar whenever it choose, even now, but "now" would cost China too much. - China needs to spend more of its dollar reserves for energy, minerals and food stocks in long term contracts first. When China has done this, the reason it will destroy the US economy is that a run on the dollar will quickly be followed by world's worst depression in US and EU. Then the demand for oil, minerals etc. will be greatly reduced and China will save FOR DECADES, EVERY YEAR on the cost of importing these supplies needed for it continued double digit growth much more than its ONE TIME LOSS in the value of the dollars still in its reserves when it decides to dump them and "win the war" with US for global dominance.

    China operates with 10 five year plans, US planning extends only to the next election. For an example, When China is the world's dominate power, they will need a "blue water navy" to rule the world with. They have started to build it and are gaining operational experience already off the coast of Somolia, interdicting pirates.

    PS to Shogun:
    Thanks for points you made while I was away.

    PS
    The best way to win a war, is to lull your enemy into a happy state so he does not even notice the noose you are slipping around his neck.

    Yes the US has a larger GDP than China NOW, but not in things that matter. For example in the US GDP is the money spent on Disneyland, rock concerts, Rose Bowl, vacation in general, plastic junk from China, braces on kid or botax for mom, latest hair styles and dresses, etc. - all things that do not make the nation more productive. Summary: 2/3 of US's GDP is sale of consumer goods!

    In China much of the GDP is building the world's largest and most modern ports, smart grid, power plants (including a new nuclear one about every 45 days!), hydroelectric dams, more than rest of the world's total of ultra high speed trains, energy efficient high rise apartments (instead of urban sprawl, which is total wrong for the era of high cost energy), public transport systems, Higher efficiency supper heated steam power plants (nearly 50% more output for same coal input) airports, etc. - All things that increase the the productive power of their economy. Summary: More than 2/3 of China's GDP is spent on increased productivity, not consumer goods.

    SUMMARY (of counter to your GDP point):
    Where it counts for long term productive gains China's GDP is at least equal to that of The US already AND China is growing five times faster than the US.

    US is LOSING the war and, as your post shows, does not even realize there is a war.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 23, 2010
  23. fedr808 1100101 Valued Senior Member

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    BillyT. The debt we are in is in the form of government bonds.

    When you buy ANY sort of bond the only time you can collect money from the person/organization you bought it from is the time you specified on the bond. Anywhere from 3 years to 20 years. The only way you can make money before it hits that time limit is if you sell it to someone else.

    YOU CANNOT JUST WITHDRAW BONDS WHENEVER YOU LIKE. CHINA CANNOT DESTROY THE US ECONOMICALLY IN THAT WAY. Besides the fact that if China could do it they wouldn't because it would hurt them harder than the US. The US would cancel 90% of those bonds to avoid bankruptcy. And out of the trillionish dollars China holds in bonds, it will only have 10% of that to show for it. So China would be in debt because it lost the money it tried to put in bonds. The US could survive cancelling those bonds, our reputation would diminish temporarily, but no one would blame us. China would be in a disaster, they would have lost a massive amount of money, they would be hated by an incredible amount of countries for attempting that stunt, and their citizens would hate their country for losing so much money in such an idiotic way.
     

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