Apocalypse Soon?

Discussion in 'General Science & Technology' started by Futilitist, Jan 1, 2013.

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  1. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Graphic update

    Here is a chart I made recently:

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    I used the amplifying effect of volatility to create a graph that shows how, as the oil price rises faster than the general economy, it begins to limit growth, leading to downward market "readjustments".

    Whenever the economy begins to recover, oil prices begin to rise, leading to another economic downturn. There is now effectively a growth ceiling on the economy. The real cost of energy, as a percent of GDP, can no longer grow without feeding back into the economy and, thus limiting growth.

    We have reached a critical point. I think this chart signals the end of growth.

    ---Futilitist

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  3. R1D2 many leagues under the sea. Valued Senior Member

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    Interesting chart.
     
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  5. Jeeves Valued Senior Member

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    Can you see 100,000 commodities speculators thrashing about in the north woods, looking for geese to strangle? The wilderness can barely support itself, never mind all these excess people! Start hydroponic vegetable gardens in the office towers. See Youtube for instructions - before the web goes down.
     
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  7. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    Wow.

    That should be published. Gold star material if I do say so myself.
     
  8. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

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    If your predictions are correct Futilist than you should have included years prior to this downward spiral event to make your point across, since it is obvious what we are looking for is a cyclic repetition linking oil price increase to economic downturn.
     
  9. AcrossSkylight Registered Member

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    I am not a believer in Evolution. To me therefore the count of species at least using most energy is Mankind. Animals are generally not as intelligent as man that includes the Chimpanzee. Humans still have the ability to make more wide range of choices. Including speech with your mouth Chimpanzees can’t do. I give them credit though for sign language.

    The animals don’t know one way or the other how many species of each kind is being produced. Animals don’t take those kinds of counts. Their instincts cause them to mate and reproduce according to the mate they choose. Some animals produce one of species at time while other multiple species in one birth. I’ve learned the Elephant has the longest time period to give birth to a baby Elephant. But they will eventually have a herd of them.

    Man kind is much responsible however in both African and Asian Elephants. They are on a watch list. Man kind has not considered well enough how to preserve the natural lands. Money and profits were more important for him to invest. The United States is trying to protect whatever land can still be saved. But cities are becoming more populated lots with of factories going on.

    While industrial may be of one issue to worsen the times we live in. Weather has also been a great concern. California this winter may come up with some food shortages. In the east winter showed up late but now is here and at one digit temperatures. But this is more common and expected in this area.

    While we was going through a Heat wave in the UK some parts of it was receiving floods of rain big time.

    So let’s combine Industrial with weather. Let’s also add the deficit crisis and the Unemployment rates.

    Incumbent Obama never really said he has answers to resolve the Economy but more placing his bets on more cost on things. While news papers emphasized his taxes on the rich he actually first dipped into the poor. Making cuts into Medicaid and other assistant state programs for those of low income or disability or the elderly. In fact he is blaming the elderly to be a main cause for our deficit.

    So now we have Industrial, weather and Government cutting cuts to both the poor and rich.

    Now it’s time for the responsibilities of citizens of the land. Droughts have been announced in some areas. Yet you will still see people over using front yard water sprinklers gushing water out in the street. The sign says don’t litter but they still throw trash out anyways. So even if laws are made still many will disobey the laws and corrupt the Ecosystem.

    While the Government does play a major role on trying to cut fossil fuels citizens are still responsible to carry this out. People think they will save money using a fire place. Lots of people do this. With all the smoke in the air I really don’t think it is good to breathe. We use the heater. We use our recycling bins in front. We can contribute but it takes the vast majority to also be working toward a better Ecosystem. If the sign says don’t litter why is it so hard to throw your stuff in a garbage can? Why do people waste so much energy and resources? Don’t wait till the Government has to get on our backs for this. Let’s take care of the planet Earth. It’s the only planet we have. Future Generations will need to live here. No procrastination. Let’s start now. Do anything you can at work and at home to help the environment. Don’t say them and because of them I also will not. It starts with us first. We lead and hope they will follow by a good example.
     
  10. spidergoat pubic diorama Valued Senior Member

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    I'm sorry you are incompletely educated, there is a lot you can do to educate yourself without school. I could recommend a book or two.

    No that doesn't happen.

    No he didn't.

    Litter, while not pleasant to look at, doesn't use up resources and has almost no effect on global warming.
     
  11. AcrossSkylight Registered Member

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    Before you call me uneducated I have been in a lot of different sutuations in life that includes being homeless with that of various health issues.
    So if you want to throw me on the ground I've already been there.
    I've seen people like you down the road in my life. You have disagreed of many things that I have said yet you have not proven me wrong.
    You have not stated for the things I've said why or why not that they are not true.
    I have the right to believe or not in Evolution just as you have the right or not to believe in it.

    I didn't say one was uneducated to believe in it. i believe one way and they believe the other.
     
  12. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    What does being homeless or sick have to do with being educated?

    Sure you do. You have the right to not believe in evolution, special relativity, particle-wave duality or gravity. But since this is a science discussion board, if you state that, someone may disagree with you.
     
  13. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Here is a graph of oil prices and recessions over the long term. Recessions are the grey bars. The oil price spikes in 1973 and 1979 were induced by OPEC oil embargoes. The ones following that were not. The recession in 1970 corresponds to the peak of US production. All the recessions since 1970 have been preceded by oil price spikes.

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    Here is a closer look. The thing to notice here is the rising price volatility since around 2000. One of the arguments against peak oil that is often heard is that the recent massive rises in oil price are due mainly to speculators. But why did speculation suddenly become so pervasive? And how did it persist for the past 13 years? One would think that unscrupulous speculation that could do so much economic damage would surely be illegal by now, yet it is not. A simple explanation for this apparent contradiction is that, obviously, speculation did not cause the oil spikes in the first place! Oil is rising exponentially in price because the easy oil is gone, and it is becoming more expensive to extract what remains. That is very logical and well supported by the data. In fact, it was predicted years before by peak oil theory.

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    Here is another way to look at the data, this time taking into account oil production. This graph was produced by geologist Kenneth Deffeyes during the 2008 oil price spike. In 2007-2008 world production hit 74 million barrels a day or so (about 27 billion barrels per year), and it just couldn't grow any further. Demand began to exceed supply and the price began to shoot upward. The three curved lines show the cost of oil as a percentage of GDP. At the time the graph was made, the cost had just rapidly exceeded 5 percent of GDP. More than 5 cents out of every dollar that each of us earns now goes to pay for oil. That is like a sudden 5 percent tax hike on everyone. No wonder oil price spikes lead to recessions. Duh.

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    Here is another graph that debunks the idea that price increases are due to the control of pricing cartels like OPEC. During the 15 year period from 1970-1985, oil prices were largely controlled by OPEC. But that changed drastically in the period from 1986-2009. From now on, if the economy begins to recover, oil production will rise to it's limit, and prices will spike again, until another recession creates enough demand destruction to once again collapse prices. Then the cycle will begin again. Lather, rinse, repeat. There is now an absolute ceiling on economic growth. We will bounce off of this ceiling over and over until the economy is completely destroyed. Oil prices are now beginning to spike again. With the ongoing US and Euro debt problems, this next spike could lead directly to a complete social collapse, or perhaps it might take another spike or two to do us in.

    Oil production may currently be increasing very slightly, but at the same time the cost of production is rising exponentially. We just aren't getting the bang for the buck that we used to get with cheap oil. That is why we can't ever get a complete economic recovery going. And geologists predict that we will begin to enter the depletion phase of world oil production sometime in the next 3 years, perhaps this year. After that, net energy will turn negative. There is no chance in hell that alternatives can replace oil within the next 30 years, let alone the next 3! World wide industrial civilization collapse must soon follow negative net energy. How could it be otherwise?

    ---Futilitist

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    PS---The thread that very few people on this site want to discuss rationally has just received 80,810 views in one month!
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2013
  14. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Yes. In fact we have hit peak oil; there is no more cheap oil. The only remaining oil is the expensive oil (>$80 bbl.)

    Yet oddly, even though we've hit peak oil, the economy didn't collapse - and is in fact recovering.

    Given that EROEI on oil is currently around 20, we have a long way to go before we get below 1. Well before that, other energy sources will become just plain cheaper - and will begin to take over from oil.

    Why not? Natural gas and coal have already replaced oil for electricity production. I am sure that 30 years ago people were saying the same thing you were about oil fired power plants.

    Because it didn't happen last time we "hit the wall" on energy (the amount of energy we could get from draft animals.) It won't happen this time either, if history is any guide.
     
  15. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    The economy is not recovering. The governments of the world have been piling up debt like maniacs just to keep us afloat. The stimulus is basically over. Interest rates can not go lower.

    We have not hit negative net energy yet. But it is coming very soon.

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    They don't call it a net energy cliff for nothing. If all liquids peak and depletion begin in 1-3 years, as predicted, we will very suddenly be forced into a much lower EROEI situation. And other sources of energy will not become "just plain cheaper", in fact just the opposite. They will increase in cost along with oil once we begin to rely on them and they are in short supply. You are confusing energy and technology.

    This is not true. Natural gas fired plants have replaced mostly coal fired plants, not oil fired plants.

    That is ridiculous. We did not "hit the wall" on energy from draught animals. We transitioned to other more potent sources of energy. Each time we have reached a growth limit, we found a better source of energy. This time we really are running into an energy wall, and there is no source of energy known that can currently replace oil in terms of bang for the buck. Total energy has stopped growing and will soon begin permanent shrinkage (in 1-3 years). History is no guide here because we have never had such a massively energy dependent, highly interconnected global civilization, or transitioned from a high energy source to a low energy source.

    ---Futilitist

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  16. Jeeves Valued Senior Member

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    Where is it recovering? How? By what means? For how long?

    Cheaper? Not a chance. Nothing will ever get cheaper, ever again. Even if production were to become easier, with the destruction of labour unions and no environmental protection, the profit would simply increase. Dirtier? Probably. There is another dimension to energy distribution and use that has not (to my knowledge - admittedly, i scan and skip) been raised: the age, complexity and fragility of the grid.

    There was never any such "wall". Draft animals and had nothing whatever to do with the industrial revolution; both just before and for some time after, a good deal of the energy came from human labour, which has never ceased to be a major factor in where and how industry is carried on. Civilization changed partly because of technology and partly because of politics. If it survives, it will change again.
     
  17. R1D2 many leagues under the sea. Valued Senior Member

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    I think your right the economy is not recovering. It will eventually though.
    I heard on tv just a little bit ago gas 4 years ago during the super bowl I think was $1.94 a gallon. That's proof enough we have hit a downward spiral.
     
  18. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    In my post #190 I showed how there is now a ceiling on economic growth due to oil spikes being triggered each time demand reaches the current production maximum of around 74 million barrels a day. As of today oil prices have just risen for the 7th straight week. The last time that happened was in mid 2007 at the beginning of the last monster spike that ended in 2008, a few months before the stock markets crashed. These oil spikes will kill any economic growth that gets any momentum. Thus, it is physically impossible for the economy to recover. Yet you insist that the economy will recover eventually . How can it?

    ---Futilitist

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  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    It is quite literally recovering. You may have an opinion that the recovery will not continue, but until then it is in fact recovering.

    An EROEI of less than 1 means that source of energy is no longer viable. We will switch sources well before then.

    Then how do you explain the recent decline in natural gas prices?

    Nowadays, yes.

    Ding ding ding! You got it! And despite all the naysayers that predicted that oil powered devices would never replace horses - they did.

    In terms of bang for the buck - yes.

    In terms of bang - not even close to true. Nuclear power could easily provide 100% of our electricity and provide 50% of our transportation energy. We may not like the results, but those are decisions we have made on lifestyle, not any technological limitations on energy available.

    Will it be nuclear? Probably not. It will more likely be a combination of nuclear, solar, wind, coal and methane.

    You said by 2015 in a previous post. Now you're talking 2016. Will you be one of these doomsday people whose prediction keeps moving back as the predicted disaster fails to materialize?
     
  20. spidergoat pubic diorama Valued Senior Member

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    Overdrilling for a quick buck. Then the price drops and it's no longer worth drilling. It's a ponzi scheme, not a sound energy policy.
     
  21. spidergoat pubic diorama Valued Senior Member

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    I revised my post to say that you were incompletely educated, not that you aren't smart, they are two different things. I didn't mean to insult you, it's just that if you think both beliefs are equally founded in reason and evidence, you are mistaken. It's such a basic elementary mistake that it's hardly worth refuting. It's not about rights, I know you have a right to be as wrong as you want, but animals don't give birth to other species and evolution is a fact.
     
  22. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Why is the recovery taking so long? Peak oil theory predicted the housing bubble burst, the recession, and the 2008 oil spike years before they happened. That same theory now posits, for reasons that are quite evident, that the production ceiling on oil will eventually cause another damaging oil spike. It may have already begun. When will you begin to believe the truth?

    All of the other sources combined cannot provide for our current needs. If they could, it would take decades to make the transition. We are already out of time. Sorry.

    There is currently a supply glut of natural gas. If we begin to rely more heavily on natural gas, the glut will disappear and it will increase in price just like any commodity.

    So, naysayers are always wrong and techno optimists are always right? I don't think so. The Titanic turned out to be sinkable.

    Unfortunately, bang for the buck is the important thing. If alternatives are too expensive they can't be much of a solution, can they?

    ---Futilitist

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  23. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    In the US, per unemployment and GDP numbers. How? Through the usual means that the economy recovers every time it goes through a cycle. For how long? Historically it will be 3-10 years.

    Let me be clear here. Oil will never become cheaper than it is now. But as oil prices rise other sources will become cheaper than oil. Not because they are dropping in price, but because oil is going up.

    As an example, tar sands are now a big source of Canada's oil. Canada is not developing because they are cheap (they're not) - but because they are at parity with, or cheaper than, more conventional sources of oil.

    Agreed. Fortunately there is a relatively simple solution to that - buildout of HVDC backbones for power distribution.

    Right, and that's my point. Draft animals alone could not power the industrial revolution; that required coal. Without the energy inherent in coal they had "hit a wall" with what they could do with animals. Which is why the industrial revolution was such a big deal.

    I agree! The changes will be big. Will they be as big as going from an agrarian to an industrial society? Probably not, but they will still be very significant as the era of cheap oil ends.
     
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