What are predictions for 2011

Discussion in 'Free Thoughts' started by joepistole, Jan 1, 2011.

  1. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

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    I know, so basically the banks better get good at doing foreclosers, fliping houses and profiting from them or they are fucked, because there WILL NOT be another government money handout for them.
     
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  3. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

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    One of the big difference (and the the biggest IMO) is we cannot write off our mortgage (unless you manage to claim part for business use). Or interest on the mortgage. Also we need to pony up at least 5% min for the first property. I think 15% for a 2nd, not sure.
     
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  5. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    More about different times at ...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjustable-rate_mortgage
     
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  7. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    Like I stated wait and see what happens when people let their homes go into forclosure by the millions this year, it is going to be very devastating to everyone.
     
  8. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

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    Is it possible to profit from banks going under? I'm calling it for several of them this year or early 2012. Can you short sell them or something , I don't know much about manipulative stock market tricks, but I'm gonna profit a lot more on this one than I did the Gold rush.
     
  9. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    We HAVE a housing crisis too, actually its been going on a lot longer than the US one. The difference is that ours is that there arn't enough houses and that they cost way to much
     
  10. NMSquirrel OCD ADHD THC IMO UR12 Valued Senior Member

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    profit?..i know we can kill them by taking our money out of them..
    not use checks, credit cards, loans,etc.. if you don't have the money you shouldn't buy it anyway..
     
  11. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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  12. darksidZz Valued Senior Member

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    There will be another airport incident, only this time on the ground. A major airport for USA will be bombed with suicide attackers.

    Someone will get hit by a car

    There will be no progress in wages or economic growth as the USA dollar continues to plummet and fall.

    SciForums will increase it's users activity by offering fun games

    SciForums will begin merchandising to help raise money for the owner

    I see new nuclear plants being built

    Homeless will become rampant as their need increases due to lack of services to help aid them

    I see a murder of a high ranking official, near Obama

    I see impeachment for Obama as he is not a us citizen

    I see girls getting pregnant
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Absoutely, short the banks if you feel that way. Personally, I think you are going to loose your tail shorting banks as a whole. You can also short bank ETFs.
     
  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Bonds compete with stocks. Is it any wonder a bond trader is hawking bond products? That is how the man earns his pay check.

    All of those preaching doom and gloom have just missed a near double in the equity markets over the course of since President Obama took office.
     
  15. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    Thats what happens when you print a couple Trillion dollars...the numbers go up - the value goes down.

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  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Can you show me where the Fed printed a couple of trillion dollars? And if the Fed printed all the money you claim, why has the money supply remained virtually unchanged?
     
  17. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    Good grief...just watch the latest 60 Minutes interview with Bernanke where he admits it!!!

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    Now why has the money supply remained unchanged? Because the money counted multiple times under the fractional reserve multiplier effect is unwinding...merely an accounting illusion.
     
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    I think you had better listen again, this time more closely.

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    I am sorry, but I do have to chuckle. You are confusing things. You are mixing apples and horses again. The money supply is not the GDP. GDP can be calculated by multiplying Velocity (the number of times money changes hands) times the money supply. But the money supply is not the GDP.

    The problem before you and others like you is that despite your claims of the Fed printing excessive amounts of money is that your claims are just not supported by evidence. I realize that is a minor detail for those on the extreme right of the political spectrum.

    The money supply has remained relatively unchanged. Inflation is running at a fraction of a percentage. Inflation is so low that for the last few years payment increases based on the CPI have been ZERO (e.g. Social Security Annual CPI adjustments have been zero for the last several years).
     
  19. Mrs.Lucysnow Valued Senior Member

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    9,879
    Happy New Year Joe!

    The problem with these discussions is that its always assumed that someone must belong to the 'other' faction if they somehow are critical of the present administration and the handling of the economy. Carcano is no more of a Republican conservative than I am. We are both probably left of the Rio Grande. You claim the feds have not been printing money, well this is what Caroline Baum of Bloomberg had this to say of Bernanke (Dec. 7th, 2010):


    "He probably wishes he hadn’t said it, the part about the Federal Reserve not printing money and his 100 percent confidence in his ability to raise interest rates at the appropriate time to prevent an acceleration of inflation. But he did. The Fed does (print money). And nothing is 100 percent certain in this world, except death and taxes.
    Here was arguably the most powerful man in the world who hadn’t forgotten his small-town roots. A creature of neither Wall Street nor Washington, Bernanke inherited a financial system on the verge of collapse and, as he put it, he was forced to bail out Wall Street to save Main Street.

    Sunday’s Bernanke was different, defensive. He was responding to his critics, both domestic and foreign, who are opposed to the second round of quantitative easing as either unnecessary, a case of overreach or dollar-debasing and therefore inflationary.
    He looked more rested than he did in March 2009. In defending himself, Bernanke said some things that left critics and admirers scratching their heads. For example, take his contention about money printing. Here’s the comment in full to provide context:

    “We’re not printing money. The amount of currency in circulation is not changing. The money supply is not changing in any significant way. What we’re doing is lowering interest rates by buying Treasury securities. And by lowering interest rates, we hope to stimulate the economy to grow faster.”

    Literal Interpretation

    Unlike his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, Bernanke isn’t known for his nuanced and obfuscatory statements. So I doubt he was referring to the physical act of printing coinage and notes by the U.S. Mint and U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing, respectively, which are part of the Treasury Department.
    Of course the central bank prints (definition: manufactures or produces out of pixie dust) money. Bernanke invoked that power in 2002 to reassure the public that the Fed has the means to prevent deflation, or a decline in the price level: a “technology known as a printing press that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...s-60-minutes-commentary-by-caroline-baum.html

    There is more detail in this article but I will let you read the rest for yourself. Please do not assume that every time someone shows concern or criticizes the current state of economic or political affairs its because they speak from the 'extreme right'. There are many from the 'far left' who are equally dismissive of Bernanke and his ilk not to mention the present administration.

    The Rolling Stone (Oct.:

    "It's amazing, given the attention the Tea Party allegedly is paying to government waste and government spending, that there hasn't been more controversy about the now-seemingly-inevitable arrival of "QE2" – a second massive round of money-printing cooked up by the Fed to prop up both the government and certain sectors of the economy. A more overtly anticapitalist and oligarchical pattern of behavior than the Fed's "Quantitative Easing" program could not possibly be imagined, but the country is strangely silent on the issue.
    What is "QE"? The first round of "quantitative easing" was a program announced by Ben Bernanke last March in response to the financial crisis, ending in March of this year. In what will soon be known as "QE1"(i.e. once QE2 is announced), Bernanke printed over a trillion dollars out of thin air, then used that money to buy, among other things, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury Bonds. In other words, the government was printing money to a) lend to itself and b) prop up the housing market, with Wall Street stepping in to take a big cut."

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/the-feds-magic-money-printing-machine-20101008


    Certainly we can't all be smoking the yayo:shrug:


    Here's Baum's take on the so called housing recovery:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...very-of-2010-commentary-by-caroline-baum.html


    But in the interest of fairness here is an article that asserts your basic opinion:

    "Open-market purchases by the Fed always create (print if you insist) new money. The main difference now is that a quantity ($600 billion) and a time frame (by June 2011) were announced in advance and the unfortunate QE2 label gives an impression of draconian size. It is large by historical measures, but the circumstances of very high unemployment, slow growth, and low inflation make large appropriate. If the economy improves faster than expected, the full program need not be implemented.
    These points I’ve made before. My main intention here is to try to dispel the notion that “creating money,” which is what economists mean when they use the more politically charged term “printing money” is not a drastic measure. There is less to it than people assume."

    http://blogs.forbes.com/beltway/2010/12/23/theres-nothing-wrong-with-the-fed-printing-money/
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2011
  20. Mrs.Lucysnow Valued Senior Member

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    9,879
    Is this what you are referring to?

    With the American housing market on the verge of collapse, the Fed used its standard tool of intervention. The central bank began an aggressive series of interest rate cuts beginning in August 2007. The cuts were intended to counteract the tightening credit market and spur growth. The Fed has since lowered interest rates to nearly zero. Analysts expect the central bank to leave the target rate unchanged at the range of 0 to 0.25 percent.

    When such cuts lose their impact, central banks turn to what economists call "quantitative easing'' -- unorthodox methods of pumping money into an economy and working to lower interest rates that central bankers do not usually control. Their effect is the same as printing money in vast quantities, but without ever turning on the printing presses.

    In November 2008, Mr. Bernanke, who has avoided the "quantitative easing'' term, outlined a range of unorthodox new tools that the central bank can use to keep stimulating the economy once the federal funds rate effectively reaches zero. Those techniques include buying vast amounts of longer-term Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities issued by government-sponsored companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and commercial debt issued by private companies and consumer lenders.

    The Federal Reserve introduced a slew of lending programs in its effort to revive corporate and consumer lending. It had a hand in JPMorgan Chase's takeover of Bear Stearns, and the government bailouts of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and American International Group.

    Since September 2008, the Fed's balance sheet has ballooned from about $900 billion to more than $2 trillion as the central bank has created new money and lent it out through all its new programs. As soon as the Fed completes its plans to buy up mortgage-backed debt and consumer debt, the balance sheet will be up to about $3 trillion.


    http://topics.nytimes.com/top/refer...nizations/f/federal_reserve_system/index.html
     
  21. txrex Registered Member

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    25
    I predict my wife will give birth to a healthy boy.

    I agree with darksidzz an "important" figure will be assasinated/murdered (im rooting for justin beiber)

    And my wife thinks the "bad" korea (not sure which one she means) is going to fall.
     
  22. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    Well, good work on your part.

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    Congratulations!

    I hope no important figures are assasinated. And I think it would be great if bad Korea failed.

    Best of luck and thanks for your predictions.
     
  23. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    2011: Positive Predictions

    Obsidian releases a couple extensions for Fallout: New Vegas along (and more importantly) with a patch fixing all the bugs everyone is bitching about (for which Obsidian should hang their heads in shame) and these together compel me to buy it ..... and it's a lot of fun!

    Americans realize the Banksters are screwing them and that the ENTIRE system needs to be scraped and rebuilt to exclude fractional lending.

    Japan continues to make cool stuff like a microwave that detects the temp of my coffee as it's heating it (which I set for 85C). Admittedly this one is 2 years old, I still thought it was good.

    QE2 is a failure and Gold and Silver continue to climb in value against the dollar increasing the likelihood Americans actually make serious structural reforms. I like the idea of electronic dollars that are tagged and tracked. Sure, some people don't like the transparency, but, you can still buy things in other currency - like silver and no need to gamble on where money is going because it'll be tracked (removing a few more unnecessary trading professions).

    Fender Squier Stratocaster Guitar Pro for Rock Band 3 is fun as hell but as hard as hell. We'll see.

    A really fun Zombie MMORPH is released

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    2011: Negative Predictions

    The US economy continues to falter. I was in MI the other week and it was like stepping into the post Apocalypse - in Detroit and Flint at least. There's so many things wrong with the USA that I can't see any way of making "Change We can Believe In" other than letting things collapse and rebuilding. And so, while I put this down as a negative because it';s going to crush a lot of people, I say bring on QE2 Benny boy

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    (note: IMO we can not grow out of the deficit - it's mathematically an impossibility as debt/our money is reissued many times over. We have to go into deeper debt to make money - but this is killing us socially and taking toll on our resources.... that aside, just think on this: even during the boom years our debt continued to climb, it sure as hell isn't going to stop doing so while in weak growth or recession).

    I don't really count this as a problem with "Americans" it's a problem with the structure of our banking and finance system which needs to be rebuilt ground up. I predict Americans remain ignorant and continue to be raped through 2011 but that a few Banksters get murdered to the joy of most blue collar Americans. Maybe we get an electron dollar in 2012 or alternative currencies are more common?

    I predict San Fransisco continues to be my favorite large city in the USA

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    Last edited: Jan 3, 2011

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