Queensland Australia..

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Bells, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    My mate wrote me last night something like this: MY GOD it's the Mosquito Apocalypse in my house! and then sent me a photo of a pile of 70-80 mosquitoes he'd killed with one of those "electronic zapper swatters" that apparently "saved his life".

    Anyway, mosquitoes are probably going to breed like mother-F-ers (another mate of mine does research on them) and there's always a worry about dengue fever and the like .... so seal off your house and plug all drains as a precaution!
     
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  3. kmguru Staff Member

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    One thing I am confused is this. Too much water causes flood. Every one knows that. Now, Australia is a highly developed country. Why did not the government monitor the world weather, precipitation, etc. and predict what may come this season?

    NOAA and National Science Foundation were putting sensors globally about two years ago to monitor the health of our planet that feeds data to a super computer. I am sure Australia has access to the data. So what happened?

    This winter we have massive precipitation throughout America. Come spring, I am sure we will have rivers rise and floods that will be bigger than last year. Our Red Cross is getting ready for it. If the flood prone areas just ignore it or the government goes to sleep, then whose fault is that?

    People need to demand support from the government, because this could repeat in the next three years. Just a hunch...
     
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  5. spacemansteve Not enough brain space Registered Senior Member

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    kmguru:

    I hope, as do many others in here in Australian politics, that an inquiry of some description is held after the cleanup operation.

    Where I work I am lucky to have a meteorologist on hand and he was saying since august that we are going to have a very wet summer. His prediction was based off the La Nina event combined with the Indian Ocean Dipole which he hadn't seen since 1974, the last time we had big floods in Brisbane. Personally i'm not too sure about the Indian Ocean Dipole, it is something I'll have to go research some time soon.

    Now surely if a mere weather observer who works for the BOM was able to predict this then surely there were others.

    We had an unusually wet year in 2010, and the Wivenhoe Dam reached 100% capacity and then some. With the knowledge of an unusually wetter wet season coming up, why didn't they release more water prior to the onset of the season? This may have prevented the floods we have recently seen as the Dam wouldn't have been forced to release so much water.

    Having said that there maybe a very good reason why they didn't and I will accept that but unfortunately this sort of information will only come out in some sort of enquiry.

    Even more unfortunate is that it wouldn't have mattered for the people living in the Lockyer Valley as it is not part of the Wivenhoe catchment.
     
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  7. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    Bells this is the first time I have logged on in 2 weeks, I'm so glad to hear you are safe, pb has family in bris and the only reason we know they are okay is by Facebook.

    Secondly its amazing that this only has 2 pages where the us shooting has over 600 replys. Can't beloved we went from massive fires to floods which have taken out the east of Australia. Vic roads just declared that anyone travling to Adelaide can't get through as the last route through (the princes) has been closed. The westen was closed 2 days ago and I was surposed to head back but I can't get through. I know this pales in comarison to Queensland though.

    If I manage to get back to Adelaide by Wed my.name is down on the list of those St john members who wish to go help in Queensland. Stay safe bells
     
  8. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    the dam holds 100% for drinking water and another 100% for flood mitigation. For fuck sake, the dam is MASSIVE, and so was the flooding. No one predicted this, they might have predicted SOME flooding but this is the worst flooding queensland has EVER had and the worst victoria and tasmania have ever had (not sure about NSW). we elect goverments not gods
     
  9. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    BTW for all the academic debate on here about wether people should be building here or there

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEQW9CvF5bw

    the current toll for queensland:

    16 dead
    28 missing currently but this could rise
    86 communities across queensland affected some hit multiple times
    75% of queensland hit but flooding (as bells said thats as big as france and germany combine)
    50% of brisban itself flooded
    36,000 homes just in bris alone flooded

    http://queenslandfloods.crowdmap.com/#
     
  10. Bells Staff Member

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    24,270
    Everyone knew this was going to be a very wet summer.

    But no one could have even imagined the events of last weekend. Nor could they have predicted that 75% of the State would flood. It's a case of we knew it would be very wet, but not exactly so wet that so much of the State would literally end up under water.

    Hydrologists working for BOM commented that it was unprecedented and surprising. Prior to the weekend, Wivenhoe was releasing the equivalent of 2 Sydney Harbours per day. That is a huge amount of water. And that was to try to cope with the excessive rain the State had received up to that point in the preceeding months. So imagine that the ground was already sodden from the wet summer we were having. Which in itself wasn't new - we've had wet summers before. But what happened was not ordinary. And when it dumped that much rain in that small amount of time.. No one could have predicted that it would have been that bad.


    It was the same after The Gap storms, which destroyed the suburb. We had weather warnings for a severe storm. But no one could have predicted the down burst that happened in the storm that caused the destruction. It was one of those freak events that sometimes just happens.

    That dam saved us. If that dam had not been there, Brisbane would have flooded long before it did. By the time the water had hit it from the deluge from the Valley, it was sitting at 150% or around that mark.

    That 50% is pure flood mitigation that it was storing - or what would have flooded downstream if the damn had not been there. That 50% was from the overly wet season we were experiencing last year. So the prediction for that was accurate. We were warned it would have been overly wet. But keep in mind that around 20 months or so ago, Wivenhoe was down to 16%. So before the rains came, or before the La Nina event occured, they were not in a position to be emptying or releasing more to make room for the rain that La Nina would bring. When La Nina started, and the damn filled up, once they went over the useage capacity, they were opening the gates. But at that time last year, they could not predict the weather we had last week. They just knew it would be very wet, just not the exact amount.

    When the North and West flooded, were were surprised at first, but a tad happy as well as it was finally an end to the drought. The problem was the rain kept coming down. I mean you know what it was like in the final quarter of last year. But we sort of knew that and those living in the areas that flooded had resigned themselves to it after the floods came. But for us in the South East, Wivenhoe was holding it all back and releasing it with a lot of control in place. It was managing it and there was minimal damage from it to livestock or property. Then we had the rain event or freak storm and they had to release more - but the freak storm itself, the parts that hit the East Coast of the State was already causing issues below the dam. There was a hell of a lot of rain. As in can't see my yard kind of rain. They had to do extra releases to cope with the Valley and Toowoomba flood that had roared into it. They had no choice. And in about a day, they had gone to virtually full capacity just from that valley flood. Coupled with the high tide and king tide we were getting..

    It was one of those freakish things.
     
  11. Brian Foley REFUSE - RESIST Valued Senior Member

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    What has happened in Australia since the flood crisis began back in December?

    Ill tell sciforums....

    Despite the availability of advanced technology and telecommunications, Australian citizens have been left to face this catastrophe without proper warnings, with scant assistance, except from volunteers. Large portions of Brisbane have been inundated, communities across Queensland have either been flooded or cut off by floodwaters for days. Numerous homes and small businesses are not covered for flood insurance, as insurers refuse to provide cover. Major mines, factories, roads, railways, ports and airports have been paralysed, at great economic and social cost.

    And what is the response...

    The Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, has declared that 'any reconstruction spending will have to be offset by other government cuts'.

    Symptoms of a decrepit economic and social order, unable to provide even the most basic protections and services to ordinary people, imposing austerity measures will only worsen the situation.

    Remember this, people on this forum scoffed at America when Katrina happened, calling America a Third World Nation, I have one thing to say, the 4 month wet season hasnt finished yet....
     
  12. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    Brian. Firstly Every emergency service, local goverment worker ect in queensland is trying to clear these houses, buissnesses and roads and other viatal infustructure

    Secondly the army, navy and airforce already have 1200 personal in place, not to mention centerlink staff at every evac center and maning phones

    thirdly the other state goverments are sending there own resorces even if streched to assist, rember tassie and vic have worst flooding ever, NSW has major flooding, SA is cut off and WA has flooding, fires AND a cyclone

    fourthly alot of the state emergency services ARE vollies, the SES for example is almost all vollies

    Fithly there is a pool of over 1 BILLION set asside fedrally JUST to deal with disasters like this and it is up and running

    sixthly coomuincations IS NO LONGER GOVERMENT INFERSTRUCTURE, telstra have sent workers from all over the country to reconect the systeme WHICH WAS WASHED AWAY WITH THE REST OF FUCKING QUEENSLAND. Im assuming the other phone companies are doing like wise.

    Oh and 1 final point, katrina was 1 city, this has hit the ENTIRE FUCKING EAST COAST OF THE COUNTRY
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2011
  13. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    23,049
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/16/3113798.htm
     
  14. spacemansteve Not enough brain space Registered Senior Member

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    Asguard:

    I'm well aware of Wivenhoes capacity as I only live about 10km from the actual dam and have used it many times for recreational purposes. I'm also very aware that dam or no dam, it would not have stopped the inland tsunami that wreaked havoc on the lockyer valley which is very unfortunate.

    My point was that if one forecaster at my work was able to make a statement along the lines of "We will most likely have our wettest wet season since 1974"... The key being 1974 when Brisbane was last inundated... then there were probably other meteorologists out there who believed the same thing. I believe the Authorities were also predicting the same thing leading up to summer. Why wasn't this information then used to mitigate any potential massive inflows into the Wivenhoe catchment area and maybe save Brisbane/Ipswich from Major flooding?

    All I am saying is that an inquiry would be able to answer this and many other questions. If it is simply because no one knew then that is fine (although I struggle to see that being the case).

    So no need to get aggressive.

    Personally I mourn the tragic situation in the Lockyer Valley and i'll impress upon you that my comments above mean no disrespect to them and their families as the Wivenhoe Dam does not effect the Valley. My comments are for Brisbane and Ipswich residents
     
  15. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    Bells has said previously that they HAVE been draining it to make room but even if someone had predicted this predictions arnt facts and contingancies have to be put in place. Lets say they had drained it if they even could safly, what happens if the predicted floods didnt arive? People would be calling for blood if they knew that the dam had been 75% full and all that water had been releaced to make room for phantom water and they were now on water restrictions. Just to show how bad predictions can go last year was surposed to be a worse fire season for SA than black sat was for victoria. We ended up with only 1 modrate fire and a few small ones. This was predicted to be a hot dry summer and its currently troppical (reasonably hot and WET) in SA.

    this is the seasonal outlook from the bom:


    so for most of the country thats only a 50% of ABOVE ADVERAGE rainfall, not this. And the same prediction for NSW and SE queensland is for just above perth where they have bushfires currently.
     
  16. spacemansteve Not enough brain space Registered Senior Member

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    You are still missing my point.

    So I will try one more time. The Answers that most will be seeking will only be found out if there is some sort of inquiry. I also mentioned above that if there is a valid reason for everything then I will accept it.

    We aren't even halfway through the traditional wet season. Dropping the damn down to lets say 75% prior to the New year could have mean the difference between 36,000 homes and 10,000 homes. If the torrential rain didn't happen... Well we are still in the grip of a La nina cycle... That is my thought and I don't think many would disagree at this stage but we've all had the benefit of hindsight now so who knows...

    I'll also note that although there are Bushfires in Perth, we've only seen the first half of Jan... There is plenty of time left in the time period given above for higher rainfall in the SW of Australia.

    Look, don't try and tell me what the situation is/was here. I'm all too close to the action, and if you read my first post you would have seen realised that the flood waters were only a few hundred metres from my house. I'm thankful for my choice in residence and feel sorrow for the people who've lost so much, I've been down the street regularly helping the clean up of homes with my fellow community members and at the local primary school.

    My hope is that if there were some flood mitigating options that could of saved so many in the ipswich/brisbane area that were known without the glorious benefit of hindsight then we should know about it. If there weren't then it would accepted as just a terrible act of nature.

    That is the point i've been saying from the beginning
     
  17. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

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    23,049
    this is the predicted rainfall map between jan and march

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    the 400mm they expected across that whole time came in what? 1 day?
     
  18. spacemansteve Not enough brain space Registered Senior Member

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    Whats your point?

    That incredible amounts of rain weren't predicted? I think with all the weather charts you are displaying (Many of which I read on a daily basis for work mind you), you are slowly proving my point that the predictions were for a wetter wet season. So releasing a small percentage of water from the Wivenhoe in order to mitigate the possibility of flooding if there were to be a massive rain event like we saw last week could have been an option? A massive rain event that Historically shows us is possible during a La Nina event? Like the one in 1974? maybe?

    Like I have been saying there may probably be good reasons why they didn't, and I will accept them when they come out... That is why we need an inquiry...

    But at the moment all you are doing is showing/telling me stuff I already know, arguing a point that i'm only postulating not trying to prove and ignoring my key point that an inquiry should be held.
     
  19. Bells Staff Member

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    24,270
    His point is that the incredible rainfall we had last week - happened in one 24 hour period. I heard on the news that some areas on the Sunshine Coast had received Victoria's annual rainfall in a few hours? Predicting a very wet summer, or one as bad since 1974 could not have predicted that.

    You were here Steve. You saw how bad that rain was. You would have seen those first reports from Toowoomba. 6 inches of rain in 30 minutes.. They could not have predicted that. They predicted a very wet season, but they did not predict that a rain event would fill one quarter of the dam in a matter of hours to days. Especially a dam that size.

    You can't predict for freakish storm events. They predicted for a heavy wet season, and catered for it. What happened last week could not have been predicted for.

    Brisbane and Ipswich had about a day's warning that the flood was coming. More like a day and a half after projections from the flood in the Valley showed where it was headed and when it would hit - which coincided with the high tide. So we knew it was coming and had a hell of a lot more warning than the few minutes those in Toowoomba and the Valley got before it flattened them.

    They also gave warnings for the State and people had time to get a lot of their belongings out as they were watching the rivers in their areas and even building levy's to try to save their homes. The problem was that they were hit a couple of times in a matter of days.

    And the response was fairly swift Brian, considering the weather. I have to admit, I have a great dislike for Bligh, but she did well during this. I've yet to see our State opposition leader at all.

    As for the insurers. That is something that will need to be done. Refusing flood protection, even in areas that would normally not flood is stupid. Some thought they were covered and have since found out they weren't (like my sister in law - had apparently asked if she was covered for flooding with her insurer when she signed up with them and was apparently told yes - they did not tell her that a river flood differs from a flash flood which she is apparently covered for - she is not covered for a river flood apparently - so when she asked for "flood coverage", they did not break it down into minute detail for her). It is unscrupulous.


    Even before the event in SE QLD, we knew it was going to cost billions, just for the rest of the State that was flood affected. And that money has to come from somewhere. I am waiting to see where it will come from. But we can't know the exact costs at the moment as so much of the state is still under water and areas still cut off in that the floods are ongoing for us now..
     
  20. Brian Foley REFUSE - RESIST Valued Senior Member

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    @ Asguard and Bells

    Of course this was leaked and sparked the Crime and Misconduct Commision to investigate:

    Investigation reports
    BRISBANE RIVER FLOOD LEVELS
    A Crime and Misconduct Commision report on the Brisbane City Council’s handling of flood study reports (March 2004)


    This in turn 2 years later led to this:
    From the catastrophe that has overtaken Brisbane’s residents, those measures have proven totally inadequate.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2011
  21. dbnp48 Q.E.D. Registered Senior Member

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    Your comment is MONUMENTALLY insensitive.
     
  22. kmguru Staff Member

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    If the dam produces electricity, Greed can be a factor. They should have reduced the level before the rain fall knowing pretty well, this will be a wet year.
     
  23. spacemansteve Not enough brain space Registered Senior Member

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    Was predicted by many Meteorologists including the one at my work and further to that there are many other weather websites and organisations that give 48hour rainfall predictions. I noticed on www.weatherzone.com.au that Ipswich had a 90% chance of precipitation with amounts from 80-100mm three days before it happened (turns out we had about 110mm before the station lost power at around 1pm).

    Yes I understand that meteorology is never 100% accurate, but short term predictions can be quite near the mark that makes no difference. 3 years ago if you said this would happen, most people would scoff... 3 days before then my opinion is that alarm bells should have been ringing. The wivenhoe at that stage was already above 100% capacity so maybe increased flows would have prevented it rather than being forced to dump Sydney Harbour into the valley in order to prevent failure? I don't know thats why I'm keen on seeing an enquiry.
     

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