Half of Chinese are still rural. Urban Chinese have lived in small, crowed houses FOR CENTURIES. Thus, you have a logical flaw. If these things led to social and economic collapse then China would not have been growing at and average rate of 9% annually for more than three decades. Why do you think these old cultural conditions will cause collapse now or soon? Are you forgetting that this China-cycle / culture / lead the world in science, commerce, literature, stability, the fine arts, etc. FOR 18 CENTURIES ? For most of this time, illiterate Europeans did not know how to even wipe their ass. I think a more accurate long term view would be that for nearly three centuries, the British were able to destroy the Chinese culture and world dominance by the introduction of strong Indian opium and confiscate weaken Chinese land, like Hong Kong, etc. When they stopped, the Japanese extended the destruction. Finally China is build back to its historic role as world leader.
You said that a war with China is too costly, but what about using terorism? I don't know much about terrorism, but I assume it is cheaper. Perhaps one of the CIA agents on here can clarify. The U.S. regime successfully toppled Gadafi by breaking terorists out of jail and arming them. I am not saying that the U.S. regime can topple China by arming terrists, but perhaps it can prevent development, and it seems like preventing development is the name of the game for the U.S, and European regimes. This is one of the reasons why they are occupying Afganistan, because it prevents any kind of pipeline or railway, linking the east to the west. (see Zbigniew Brzezinski The Grand Chessboard) The U.S. regime is also currently backing numerous terorist groups to destabilise Syria (source: CONFIRMED: US CIA Arming Terrorists in Syria - by Tony Cartalucci - 2012-06-22). As some cybercom posters have pointed out, the U.S., and European regimes can use biological warfare against China, as it has in the past (Aids, Sars, Bird flu, Swine flu). There has also been talk amongst Taiwanese to blow up dams in the mainland, specifically the 3 gorges dam, and cause floods. (search Terrorism part on taiwan separatist agenda). The U.S. and Nato regimes are also known for using false flag terorism (search British SAS false flag Basra). What about a scenario in which the U.S, or Europe does a false flag attack on Taiwan, and gets the Taiwanese to do the fighting. The Taiwanese would pay the bill, take the casualties, and risk, while the west watches from a distance (and probably laughs). The Taiwanese have so much hatred built up towards their compatriots from decades of brain washing, it seems that many would be more than willing to fight, and disregard the fact that they are pawns, or dupes. Of course, there are also failed terorism attempts by the west, such as when they armed the Tamil Tigers for decades, and were recently defeated by the Sinhalese. I think that China too will eventually be able to crush terorism on its soil, but I don't think this will stop the west from attempting to arm anyone who is willing to play ball, whether it be Hongers, Taiwanese, Tibetans, Haka, or Uighurs. From what I know, the west has been at the terorism game for at least 300 years, and up until now it has worked in their favour. Also, the U.S. has been backing terorists in Tibet since the 1950s, (search Dalai exposed) and has been backing terorists in Xing Jiang for at least a few years now (search Rebiya Swindler CIA and the Bloody Hands Behind the Xinjiang Riots). Do you think the U.S., European regimes will just escalate these attacks, in order to destabilise, or extort China? How do you think that China can weaken the terorist attempts of the west?
Almost all your assertions about what US has done, either directly of via thrid parties I think probably are false and certainly have no supporting evidence. I will just discuss one: Years ago when Chan Kia Chek (Spelled wrong, no doubt) and his army was driven from the mainland onto Formosa Island (now called Taiwan) Yes there was great hatred between his forces and the CCP that expelled him. He was also hated by the natives of Formosa as as he killed hundreds of the educated natives, university professors etc. and all the local political leaders who were not happy with his take over of their country. (Never is much said in US press about this wide spread murder of educated natives.) As the years passed and those who had fought on the mainland died off, the POV about the mainland changed. For years the politcal leaders on Taiwan were anti-CCP of the mainland, but trade and business relations steadily improved. Soon only the farmer on Tiawan were strongly opposed to greater economic union with the mainland. (Price for their crops would fall if they could be imported from the mainland.) The last two elections were close, but the party wanting more and closer relations with the mainland won and is now achieving that. For example, for more than a year, there have been two -way daily commercial air plane flights. At first the Mainland Chinese wanting to go to Tiawan had to be part of a group with CCP agents, but no longer. A mainland Chinese can just buy a ticket and go to Tiawan with no escorts and visit almost any point in Tiawan. There are no sane terrorist in Tiawan who want to damage the mainland now. 90+% want MORE economic connections with the mainland´s greater markets and economy. In this and most of your post you are blowing ignorant claims out of your ass. I am not saying US does not support terrorist who want to harm some that US thinks are its enemies - They (and Israel) made more than 100 centrifuges in Iran self destruct by over speeding them - all by cyber warfare codes. I am sure there are other examples not yet known by the public, but nothing like your wild claims. Try to document even one.
You are mischaracterizing the views of Taiwanese people. The subject is very fraught and complex, not nearly so clear-cut as you pretend: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan#Public_opinion Public opinion in Taiwan regarding relations with the PRC is notoriously difficult to gauge, as poll results tend to be extremely sensitive to how the questions are phrased and what options are given, and there is a tendency by all political parties to spin the results to support their point of view The Taiwanese whom I know personally (and I know several) are vehemently anti-CCP, get angry if you refer to them as "Chinese" (even if meant purely in an ethnic sense), etc. Don't be misled by the fact that a China-friendly government is in power in Taiwan right now - it wasn't so long ago that relations were very acrimonious, and we could return to such a state of affairs in a single election.
I think the best we can hope for is not starting a war with China in the first place. Besides, they are not only our manufacturing base, but also one of our biggest emerging markets. We would invite economic collapse to attack them. And they would suffer economic devastation too.
I did not try to characterize their POV on the political association, if any. I said "90+% want MORE economic connections with the mainland´s greater markets and economy." I certainly agree with that, especially the fact that by slight wording changes one can get nearly any result from a public opinion poll one wants. I noted that over the decades since 1949 when, Chiang Kai Shek (Jiang JieShi) and the Nationalist Party invaded Formosa, the level of hostility has decreased. After 1979, both sides intended to resolve the conflict peacefully but Tiawan was still inclined to seek independace. The election of March 22, 2008, which Kuomintang candidate Ma Ying-jeou won with 58% of the vote, made "a new political situation, which led to a decrease of tension between both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the increase of cross-strait relations, making a declaration of independence, or war, something unlikely." - quoting from your link. Yes there could be political setbacks but this "poll" is the one most recent and the only one that counts. It seems likely, if there is no reversal of this trend, that ultimately Tiawan will become, like several other parts of China, a "one China /two systems" type of local government, with all the old dream of independance gone. Again I only commented that 90+% of the Tiawanese want to increase the ECONOMIC advantage of closer ties to the large mainland market. Do you disagree with this?
It is not just coal and green energy that China is leading in. Super critical steam coal plants ~40% more efficient & world's largest power dam, largest solar cell arrays instaled and soon wold's largest wind farm, but nuclear too: "...China has 14, is building 26, is planning 24, and has proposed 86... 150 total. Russia has 33, is building ten, has planned 17, and has proposed 26... 86 total. India has 20, is building 7, and has planned 39... 66 total. Others are being built in Turkey, Poland, Finland, and France. And as we already discussed this week, more are under way in South Korea, Jordan, and the UAE. The rest of the world isn't enjoying a shale boom and $2.00 per mmBtu natural gas, which is trading for $11.50 per mmBtu in Europe as I write this... China was paying $7.25 for Turkmen gas delivered to the border in the first quarter. With those prices, it makes sense for countries not named the United States to build new nuclear power plants. ..." BTW US has three under construction and most planned are in review with lower cost Natural Gas being considered as the alternative instead. From: http://email.angelnexus.com/hostede...fd2b67a37d62feb0521f27ef88687af8&ei=W8SyLe8BN an Email to me from Wealth Daily at site not my Email
"... Fortune magazine recently released its list of the world’s largest companies, ... For the first time ever, China had the second-most names on the list, behind only the United States. Japan had been No. 2 for a long time. But last year, 73 of the world’s 500 largest companies by revenue were Chinese, versus 68 for Japan. To give you a sense of how fast China has grown, just consider that in 2002, there were only 11 Chinese firms on the Fortune Global 500. In order to claim the No. 2 spot, China added 12 companies to the list. By comparison, the number of U.S. companies declined for the tenth straight year. There are now 132 American businesses on the Fortune Global 500, down from 197 just a decade ago. And I think it’s a good bet that this trend will continue. ... I’m Tony Sagami for Uncommon Wisdom Daily." From: http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/china-makes-its-mark-on-fortune’s-global-500-14600?FIELD9=3 Billy T agrees with the Tony´s last comment and made an earlier part bold.
Nor did I suggest that you did so. Which raises the question of why you are making this distinction in response to me. Right, and then I said that you are mischaracterizing the views of the Taiwanese people. And you were, and still are. You have provided absolutely nothing in the way of data that would substantiate your sweeping, prejudicial statements. You are simply talking out of your ass, as has become your habit on such subjects. The fact that you agree with your own data-free assertions is just that. That statement - which differs from what my quote actually said - would only mean that public opinion is unknowable, not that public opinion agrees with your characterization. There is no unitary "poll" that unequivocably defines Sino-Taiwanese relations for all time, let alone the public opinion of Taiwan on the issue. They had an election and empowered a party that has a certain strategy for dealing with China. They can change their mind and opt for the other guys next time if they like. To suggest that only the most recent election results can be considered in guaging opinion is specious, and apparently a set-up for your subsequent attempt to inflate a single data point into a "trend:" That mischaracterizes the ambitions of the Taiwanese people, and the positions of the political parties, grossly. One of the opposition's main lines of attack during the recent election was that the winner's engagement strategy amounts to acceptance of a one-China policy. Had the Taiwanese public agreed with that assessment, the election results would have been very different. Likewise, the winner has explicitly promised that he will never enter into negotiations over Taiwan's status (nor will he declare formal independence). Also, "independence" is a very new dream for Taiwan. The consistent position of the KMT has been that the ROC is the rightful government of China - all of China. It has never pursued independence - in fact it's plan was to militarily overthrow the CCP and retake all of China up until the late 1970's. The Green coalition - which is a much newer phenomenon - are the ones who favor a separate Taiwanese identity and independent state. Moreover, you are again engaged in the specious game of fitting a "trend" to a handful of cherry-picked data points: in this case, a single win in a Presidential election (which is held amongst the legislature, not the public, by the way). The reality is that the Pan-Green coalition (these are the independence crowd) hold about 45% of the legislature, and likewise their Presidential candidate got about 45% of the vote in the most recent election. Which is to say that your claim of "90%" is in direct contradiction to even the very limited data you insist on considering. You're reasoning is like saying that because Barack Obama won the last election, 90% of Americans favor universal healthcare. Exactly how many times do I have to explicitly disagree with a statement before such becomes clear? Something like 45% of the population favor the Pan-Green Coalition, which wants to sever such ties and pursue formal independence. About 50% of the population favors the Pan-Blue Coalition, which likes engagement and economic integration but has explicitly promised not to negotiate away the status of Taiwan. So even if we correct your insane 90% figure (which you apparently simply invented out of thin air) of people favoring economic ties, we still are left with widespread resistance to political integration into the CCP system. All of which is to say - again - that you are grossly misrepresenting the views of the Taiwanese people. This is unsurprising, given your long-standing fixation on fantasies of global CCP ascendance and corresponding willingness to throw standards of investigation and scholarship out the window in order to feed your pet worldview and proseletyze such here.
Billy, you mentioned several times that China has a 50 year plan. What exactly is that? Is there a list somewhere?
I always say they have ten five-year plans, not a 50 year plan. These plans become less specific in details the further into the future they are. The last might be just a range of goals and expected basic facts about the nation. For example: Population between 230 and and 260 million with medium age 48; Gold reserves between 12 & 16 tons; RMB in foreign hands 9 to 14 trillion; energy exclusively from renewable sources except for national oil and natural gas mainly from western provinces, via new pipelines of plans 6&7; ... The current plan and next 5 year plan are very specific. For example things like: Completion of high volume NS water transport system* in November 2014; completion of new deep water port July 2013; by 2016 (start of next 5-year plan): average real rural salary increased by 38% ; Gold reserves up 14%; ... army manpower down 6%; 38 of 100 planed new cities completed; ... * Of course the near term plans are not just the short vague notes I gave above, but each major item fills many pages of the plan with details. Much more even than below but I post text below to give the idea that there are schedules and quantative details for each item. (For example the current plan has things like how many rail car loads of cement are delivered where in June 2013 so managers of the cement making SoE will know their production requirement in May 2013.) The infrastructure construction plans are very detailed as is required for a totally planned economy. Unlike the old USSR, China has a hybrid economy. What is available in in the market place for people to buy is determined ONLY by the invisible hand of Adam Smith,** not by the central planners. NS water transport system will remove nearly 36 billion cubic metres of water every year from the Yangtze River Basin and ship it to the arid North some 3,000-kilometres (1,900 miles) away! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Those pipes are 8.5 meters in ID – 18 wheeler trucks can easily drive thru while they are dry! If scheduling and operations projections are accurate, in 2014 some 13 billion cubic metres (3.4 trillion gallons) of water per year will pour through the tunnels of the central line, under construction in Henan Province, and will be sent north to help curb water shortages in more than a dozen cities, including Beijing. The eastern line, a second transfer project, should already be operating by then, transporting 14.8 billion cubic metres of water annually from the lower Yangtze River to Tianjin. ** Adam discovered there is demand for pink cell phone with re-fillable chamber and pump that can spray perfume or breath freshner - So you can buy one of those in China. There is a more free, less regulated, market in China than in the US, but that also means you can buy contaminated baby milk, until some deaths are caused by it and the makers are executed.
thanks for the thoughtful response. also, in response to the melamine comment, the u.s and western countries also sell plenty of poisonous materials to people. many medicine in the west causes more harm than good. the makers of those, rather than getting executed, normally open up another company under another name and continue to prosper. u.s corporations also used to sell poisonous chemicals like ddt to people, knowing that it hurt people. when this was discovered, u.s corporations simply sold them to other countries. now, can you imagine that if China discovered milk to be contiminated, and it started to openly sell the milk to other countries? also, lets not assume that western countries are regulating their markets out of benevolence, or the safety of their people. it's usually done for a power struggle. the bigger, badder american, or european corporations will accuse a product of being unsafe, and use their influence within the govt to squeeze its competitors out, and many often times it was the bigger, badder corporation who made the product unsafe in the first place. it became very obvious that american safety standards were a joke, when the u.s regime accused toyota cars of being unsafe. of course the real reason was because the u.s regime wanted to oust the hatoyama govt. China's markets are also not necesarily more free, which is good for China. China only allows so many foreign films into their country each year, in order to protect its own film industry. Even hongers, and taiwanese who want to sell films on the mainland must include x number of mainland actors in their film. This is why you see a lot of mainland actors in hk, and tw films. In contrast, hk, and tw makes no such demands on european films entering their market, and europeans can do whatever they want in hk, and tw. China also mandates many foreign enterprises to form joint ventures with China as a condition of operating in China, again to protect, and advance its own industries. Chinese people in government jobs also get 2 and a half hour lunch breaks. Places like hospitals are closed from 12-2:30pm. Most factories also require owners to give employees housing, and meals. A couple of months ago, the Chinese government raided carefour, and mcdonalds, and caught them selling expired food after an undercover investigation. If China truly was a free market place, westerners would be able to sell whatever crap they want in China, and the west would have nothing to complain about http://zzb.bz/M4T8Z
Long standing “top level brain drain” from China is reversing?: There is another, non-monetary, but stronger factor sending top level Chinese back to China, how important it is I don´t know. About 30 years ago when I worked at Applied Physics Lab of JHU a few doors down the hall from me was Dr. Chin´s office. He was world wide recognized authority on combustion chemistry and retiring. I went to his retirement lunchen. There he tried to explain to us why he was returning to teach in a second tier Chinese University, as head of its Chemistry Department, near where he was born. Two reasons: (1) He wanted to help, felt a duty to help, "his people" advance (after > 40 years in the US, they were still "his people.") (2) He probably only had a decade or a little more to live, and wanted to be buried near generations of his ancestors.
um saying level of hostility decreased isn't saying much pray tell how do you get more hostile than open warfare.
I´m not sure who you speak of as being in "open warfare." I will however mention one index of lack of war or more peaceful relations: On CNN toady (in Brazil at least) the CNNgo program focused on Taiwan, especially their foods and air transport industry, which is very rapidly growing (flights and passengers to & from mainland are up 12% from Jan2012). There are 12 low cost or budget air lines - one CNN featured has "Hello Kitty" on everything - even the cheese they serve in meals is shaped like a kitty cat. - "Hello Kitty" cats are all over the outside of the planes, the ticket booths, the clothing of the flight attendants, etc. One brief segment featured the Atalay - one of several dozens of native tribes that lived on Formosa before invading army of Chiang Kai Shek killed most of them. Now that they have been abused for 50+ years and few still live, the government is allowing, even encouraging, them to keep their up their culture (dances, weaving, songs, food, etc.) alive as it brings in tourists and their money. I.e. mutual commerce, perhaps as percent of GDP to make it relative, is a good index of how far from war your are with some other nation.
Few Westerners realize how advanced China is in the Pharma area. For example, in less than one month China developed the most effective vaccine for swine flue - task that normally takes several months or more. Or: Bill Gates health foundation now buys its vaccine from China as they are both more effective and cheaper. Here is news of major western firm, AstraZeneca, turning to a Chinese drug leader for help, not lower cost, but better technology and more well educated researchers for drug development: The less threatening western image of China as backward country dies hard as China is developing too fast for people to change their way of thinking,* but fast development is what one should expect for nearly unliminted funds and 8 to 10 times more advanced degrees science graduates every year than the US produces. CRO = Contract Research Organization - a group that will do the clinical evaluations of new drug for a fee (and sometimes a piece of the action if Drug is approved for sale.) CRO have for decades often been located in large poor countries as quickly recruiting 500 or more test patients (at least half of which have the disease) is easier there. * Like Einstein said, about the A-bomb: "This development changed everything, except people´s way of thinking."
Central banks can and do control the value of their currencies. Often they want it to be stable wrt their main trading partners so their companies have reduced uncertain with foreign exchange in their planning. Thus, their currency´s “co-movement correlation” (with Dollar or Yuan) is an index of the relative importance their central banks place on various foreign currencies, but not the only one. For example, they want their reserves held in a foreign currency to avoid depreciation, so most are increasing the fraction of their reserves now held in gold at the expense of their dollar based holdings.
More than a year ago, China and India agree to grow AND BALANCE their mutual trade at ~100 billion USD level by 2015 and settle any small imbalance in their currencies, not in dollars.
In January 2011, China tested its first stealth fighter, the J-20. This is the smaller J-31 in its first 11 minute test flight. Note the two white spot in front part - they are twin nose wheels. Both it size and these nose wheels, indicate it is designed for carrier duty as well a land. (Landing on carrier can put great stress on the nose wheels.) Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Here is the J-20, I think: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! It will be years still before volume production begins.
how ever true that is it remains to see how a country that industralizes under a communist government and than moves more to capitalist society will stablize. look at russia its been close to century since their industrial build up and 20 years since the fall of communism and they still aren't completely stable( though I am willing to admit that may be for other reasons than the switch) until everything their evens out and stabilizes I'm unwilling to assume long term stability.
