Don't make me bust out the Corey Hart I stand corrected; thank you. To the other, I'm not ready to surrender yet.
BBC and I agree except I think there will come a "tipping point" where run on the dollar makes most of the US´s collapse into very-deep, long-lasting, world´s-worst depression happen in less than a year. If you go to the polls, vote for Romney - then the Republicans will get the blame for the depression Republican GWB made "inevitable," not a black man. Contrary to what many Americans believe what happens on 6 November will make little difference – US is going bankrupt in debt (some of it to China) but the already decided election that will be formalized in the Great Hall of the People in week starting 8 November will shape the future of the world. Billy T comment: Remember half of living Chinese remember the millions who starved to death so here is part of why they are so satisfied with their CCP government: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Double digit REAL annual increases in their incomes and pork (their favorite meat) consumption up four fold with about 50% more pigs now being raised in China than the total in the rest of the world! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Photos of the world's fastest trains* on world´s largest network of high speed rails and the world´s largest (1 Km long) most efficient modern airport, built for the Olympics in less time that England spent on public hearing about the expansion of one terminal at London's Heathrow! In a few years, China will have more high-speed train system (Km of tracks) than the rest of the world's total - high speed trains are a major part of China's stimulus program as they make jobs all over the country - boosting living standards in the interior and increases China´s economic efficiency. - Part of why factories are building there as export products quickly go to ports. *Look closely to see four in this terminal (but only the head lights of one approaching on far left of photo). Judging by the roof structure, (three equal arches), the elevated walkway in the background, and location of the "head lights only" train, I think there are 12 parallel tracks in this terminal. If my posts, ElectricFetus, and the BBC are not fully persuasive that the future belongs to China, then to understand better why they have a much superior economic system, read this one: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...l-Superpower&p=3005554&viewfull=1#post3005554 (It has two more very impressive photos and notes a foreseeable disaster for US´s SW, one much more destructive than hurricane Sandy as its permanent, which a Chinese style government, but not the US´s, could and has prevented in the NE China.) Joke: In less than a decade one can truthfully say: "Two out of every three pigs live in China!" If you think I speak of ugly women, see: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...l-Superpower&p=2366384&viewfull=1#post2366384
A Point Of View: Is China more legitimate than the West? This is a ridiculous statement. Tell me Martin Jacques, why was it that for 50 years the 'Chinese State' ran the Chinese economy into the ground? Yes, do tell, why did the "State" suddenly reverse all the mistakes it had made for a century? The "State", give me a break. Yes, do tell what the "State" is doing over there so maybe we can do it too. The true 'miracle' is NOT that it took a few hundred million Chinese State Citizens/humans starving to death to awake a few "Chinese Leaders" to their own folly and incompetence (the truth is they couldn't believe how f*cking rich everyone else in the world was becoming (particularly the Japanese) and wanted in on it) but that Economist's like Martin Jacques can look straight faced when they credit the same exact State that was starving these Chinese to death with any ounce of LEGITIMACY and dares to give this same State that kills nuns in Tibet the kudos for doing what it did NOT do - but what the Chinese people (freed from the statuesque) were able to accomplish individually. The REAL reason why China is wealthy is because the State got the hell out of the way and let the People get about spontaneously organizing themselves. And *gasp* who'd of thunk NOT sticking a gun in the worker's face and allowing them to enjoy the fruits of their labor would work out BETTER for them. The Chinese State realized, with humility, that it sucks. Then it went about doing what all other States do - trying to sneakily leech off the drippings of the worker while appearing to actually be doing something FOR the worker, when doing less than nothing. The Chinese State finally after 100 years returned to it's roots of all States - that of propaganda and parasite. Even more miraculous is that Martin Jacques is also stupid enough to think these moronic Five Year Committee meetings (yuck yuck, look-ie I gots me 5 fingers on this eer hand) do ANYTHING OTHER than mis-allocate the resources of the worker - which, as the tide resides, is plainly evident with massive over investment in production, pollution so bad Japanese and Koreans now have to breath it daily as the Chinese haze is a permanent fixture and entire empty cities being swallowed by the inhospitable landscape that is, and has always, surrounded Beijing. AND you know what's the more comical part of all this: China IS the success story. That's how shitty we 'Western' so-called free-market economies are now. China is a much MUCH freer nation to do business in - that's for sure. They work harder, they study harder, they want success more. We Americans should say thanks to the Chinese for our 20 'free' Obama-phones but we won't. We'll instead do the exact opposite - and we'll pay for it with a lower standard of living, less opportunity and when the money runs dry, the labor or children are no longer worth anything, their lives; losing civil liberties each and every step along the way. Big surprise, Martin Jacques schilles for the same State, who pays for his kids to attend Private schools with theirs - the BBC is an extension of the propaganda coming out of Downing Street. Don't be surprise when 'Five Year Unelected Committees' start poping (pooping) out of Europe and England. Greece 3.0, Italy 4.0, and etc.... The Gods only hope the USA goes to Hell before ever letting the Oligarch State Parasitise our Nation the way the Communist "Leaders" in China are doing to Chinese.
Easy question. The state 50 years ago was very different when run by the ignorant red guard and had university professors sweeping the streets, with ever good Chinese building a small blast furnace in his back yard, re-education "camps" for any one foolish enough to point out how destructive all this was. That silliness was evident to all when it starved many million Chinese. When the current US state - the government of the rich, for their corporations, and by their lobbyist collapses even right wing Republicans will then understand that it was a silly idea to run a country that way, just as the Chinese did when theirs collapsed. The Chinese state of the last 30 year is totally different from that earlier silliness. - A very practical and forward looking state producing 10% annual GDP gains on average for three decades. It is even quite willing to discard central communistic ideology when needed. For example, it let the peasants lease their traditional small family plots to large modern agri-corporations as food production needed to be greatly increased with less manpower as that was needed in the factories. - Sort of what took place in US much more slowly as US changed from nation that was 90% or more farmers to one that is less than 5% farmers but done by modern Chinese state ten times faster. - By far the greatest and fastest urbanization in human history!
I don't think the US will collapse suddenly, china won't allow it because it will hurt china, china wants one thing and only one thing, continued growth, as fast as it can, its its having impossible problems achieving that, if they fail then they will all be up against the wall really fast: their people are only kept from rebelling because they have been growing the economy so well, their people want democracy but are willing to let it slide as long as the communist party keeps the jobs and money flowing. China for now and for some time needs the USA for capital, technology, education of their graduate students. By the time china as grown so much that a collapse of the USA would only cause minor effects to their economy will be when the US has already crumbled into oblivion all by its self. And when I say crumble it quite possible that the standard of living in the USA might actually improve! Whether the US remains stagnant or falls (the latter being against the trend of world history for the last 200 years) china will likely over take it as the world biggest economy in <30 years. Obama nor Mitt could possible change that inevitability, but more conservative foreign and economic policies which have caused the massive disparity between the rich and poor in the USA is more likely to give us a fall, heck it gave us our present recession and bled us 2 trillion plus dollars in useless wars. Voting for the democrats (or more precisely liberals, as many democrats are very conservative economically) will reduce the chance of a fall and at least maintain us along a path of stagnation, until our technology develops enough and policy that taxes the every growing automated labour are instituted that allows us to grow our economy beyond the limits of our human labour force.
And just how do they know a "University Professor" is better in a University 'teaching' (which is usually the last thing they do) and not better on the street sweeping? Harvard Business School alone, through it's idiotic MBA program, has probably destroyed most key industries in the USA (example: General Motors). Yes, I do agree that using FORCE to make Professors quit doing what they loved doing and 're-educating' them to work the land was Equally moronic. They should compete in the free market like everyone else. Which is actually starting to happen now that the internet gives away free information. Stanford and MIT just post up their lectures for anyone to watch. Interestingly, I'm friends with a Chinese whose mother was the very first Chinese woman to earn a PhD in Chemistry (inorganic I believe). He said both his parents (his father worked for the State oil company as a chemist) were forced to work the land. He recalls being forced to say a prayer to Mao before dinner (even though no one would know if he didn't - which he thought was absurd). Now his parents (ironically) own about 15 houses in China - thanks in large part to the property bubble. So, being from Nanjing, he's set for life. So, where you see a State 'helping' the Chinese I see something totally different. I see a State that has helped itself to Chinese - and is finally NOT helping as much. AND thank the Gods too - because the less and less the Chinese State 'helps' the Chinese, the better and better life is for normal Chinese. I personally think the Chinese know they are skewing the market and to such an extent that they realize they need to get out of the way - while at the same time appearing to be relevant. IF I am correct, they will shrink their influence and strengthen property rights, civil liberty and simplify the law. If not, they'll suffer the same fate they've suffered for 5000 years. Let's see if they can learn from their mistakes. A big chunk as to how high and how fast the Chinese have climbed has to do with how far down they had to start from. As well as the Chinese can-do culture entrepreneurial spirit. They fact 5 generations of Communism couldn't crush it suggests its the default way we humans do things.
Most of your post makes so little sense that there is no need to reply to it, but I do try to answer questions put to me. While a professor may be a good street sweeper, so could almost any Chinese; but "almost any Chinese" can not teach others the laws of thermodynamics, calculus, economics, or physics, etc. so using him to sweep streets is a great waste of Chinese resources. Very much against their rule of "From each according to his abilities ...."
China still has inflation under control and is growing 3.5 times faster than the US so I don´t think China is having an "impossible" time keeping up its growth as every western country is, despite running their currency printing presses 24/7. Our main disagreement seems to be about the speed of US collapse and the extent to which China will be hurt by that collapse when it occurs. Yes, China would be hurt if US collapses in less than three years but in four years it can have greater exports than now without selling anything to the US as trade with its suppliers of essential imports (Brazil, Canada, Australia, mainly) is growing annually by double digits. Trade with Africa, also an increasingly important source of raw materials, especially oil and minerals, by ~50% as is trade with the SEATO nations and at least by 30% annually with non-SEATO mid east & other Asian nations. If this just continues for 3.5 years more, the INCREASE ONLY of this trade will exceed the total trade with the US now! Note that China is switching to a domestic rather than export lead economy, but this has been slow as Chinese save rather than spend, but none the less in last quarter the growth of GDP was 55% due to domestic sales and export part of GDP growth was much smaller. (15% as I recall with capital investment being 30% down from when it was > 50%.) As I posted years ago, there will come a time, when China will say to US: Go to Hell. We don´t need to sell to you. Nor will we finance your deficits anymore. You may be correct that the US will not "suddenly collapse" in next two years as I have predicted, but here from old post I made is a different from excessive debt way how China can make that happen (and both ways do have a "sudden collapse"): As you can see below, in 2011 China not only reduced the dollar percentage of its reserve, it was a net seller of US treasury paper! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Note the 2011 bar is a negative change ~1% down. China, world´s largest producer of gold for last four years, is now buying about 1/3 of non-Chinese gold production too. Does that not make you wonder why? But I still think the US dollar will collapse slightly before it is to China´s economic advantage to destroy the dollar by dumping its world´s largest (except for FED) holding of Treasury paper. Here is why: In about 3 years, the ONE TIME loss dumping to send US & EU into deep, long-lasting, depression would be fully repaid in a few years by the EVERY YEAR lower cost of its imports, when broken US & EU are not significant buyers competing with China for these essential imports – I.e. if US dollar does not collapse by Halloween 2014, as I predicted it would ~7 years ago, then China will soon destroy it to gain this economic advantage despite the one time loss on Treasury bonds it still holds. See also this old 2009 post: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...ute-prices-now-removed)&p=2475063#post2475063 Also note now that both Japan and India have joined more than a dozen other Asian countries, and most in Africa in agreeing to cease using dollars for trade balance settlements, so the Yuan is in fact the dominate trade currency, except for oil. Most African countries, like Brazil plus several other South American countries, and a dozen other non-Asian, non African, countries now have China, not the US, as their main trading partner! Some oil exporters too do not sell oil only for dollars. - The PetroDollar system is dying.
China was once growing at 10% a year, now its doing 6%, sure we would love to have even 3% growth, but going from 10% to 6% is very unsettling for china's population and thus its leaders. First off China import from the world has remained steady for the last 10 years of 7-6% being to the USA, there no sign china cutting USA off any time soon. China export to the world has "increased" from ~40% going to the USA in 2001 to ~20% by 2010, but that still nearly 400 billion dollars, that a total buisness of ~500 billion dollars and growing. Now here the big qustion: why would china drop the USA? They have no reason! That half a trillion dollars of trade is not pocket change and if they did drop the USA the ripple it would cause to most of the other countries they are connected with would harm their economy far more then just half a trilllion dollars. Give me a reason for China to drop the USA. Certainly I could see them twisting the USA arm with their growing clout but why crush what you can control and use? Espeically when you have to do everything you can to keep your peoples ever grwoing appetite satified. How this, in 2 years if the USA has not collapsed (an we need to define collapse now) you owe me $50! And if does collapse I come over to be your house slave (it would be better employment then I could get post-collapse USA). because they want stability and money, money, money? Why drop the dollar when they can over the next decades slowly convert the world from the dollar to the yen, thus keeping a steady income from the USA while also becoming the worlds most dominant superpower. Its a safer stratagy and means more money in the end, all that is needed is patients. Imports from whom, iran, north korea? without the US & EU virtually every other country that is partnered with china would collapse as well, they are ALL economically connected! Even a small economic problem in on country effects the others. Fuck when the USA coughs, EU pukes, when EU and US gets sick china gets queasy, Fuck part of China drop from 10% to 6% growth has been because of GLOBAL recession started in the US.
I think Romney's first really big mistake was calling 47% of the country parasites. His last one, I think, were his deceptive ads about Jeep*. When even FOX News and US car companies are calling him a liar you know he's in trouble. That ad, I think, will result in him losing Ohio. He will still win Florida, but Obama will end up with ~300 electoral votes. (* - he could make another big one today but I doubt it. If his handlers have any sense they are keeping him under wraps.)
Not according to the Chinese themselves - See my recent post quoting the Pew study, the Harvard study and Chinese themselves - all showing 90 + or - 5% satisfied with their central government! Also note that 6% growth now is more wealth and goods production than 10% was a decade ago as China was growing at ~10% - doubling every 7 years! I.e. 2x6 > 10. You really see this real per capita gain in pork consumption, the favorite meat of the Chinese. -It is up about four fold! China now has about 50% more pigs than all those in the rest of the world as they are richer now and eating much more meat. No wonder 90% are very happy with their government! I would say that exports to US dropping from 40% to 20% of total exports in 9 years is a sign that China is "cutting USA off" or needing the US buying their production less every year. There are several reasons why this is happening and will continue: (1) US wealth / buying power, especially of the middle class that once bought cheap toys, clothes, etc from China, is decreasing. (2) China has labor shortages and higher wages now so goods it makes cost more and more are sold to prospering nations, not as much the US and EU now. (3) China is selling more high value added goods so US imports of low value added goods come mainly from other Asian countries, with low pay scales, not from China, now (4) China´s domestic market is consuming an ever greater percentage of what China makes, not the US. (5) China is sick and tired of lending the funds to the US with which to buy - thinks and often says that it fears the dollars it gets when Treasury bonds it holds mature, that they will be worth less than it paid for them. (6) China wants to trade more with other prosperous nations, not depend on US and EU buying. If 6 answers to: "why would China drop the USA?" is not enough, I can stop and think of some more, but you gave a good one too. You said, in answer to why China, world´s largest producer of gold was second to none in buying gold too: "because they want stability and money" That is correct answer (7) - they don´t think the dollar holds it value so don´t want more from sales to US, but the funds China´s exports earn from Brazil or Australia etc. are growing in purchasing power. Who would your rather trade your limited production of excess products (above the growing domestic needs) with? Who would you slowly "cut off" sales to? No, not fully true. China is now half or more of the US´s economy size, and growing from that larger base at 10% may no longer be possible even for China. I have often said that when US and EU fall into deep long-lasting depression, that at worst there will be a mild recession in Brazil, Australia, and other suppliers of the imports still growing China will need but that Brazil will become an "economic colony" of Asia, especially China as unlike Australia, Canada, etc. it is mainly a producer of low value exports, not high tech goods as well.
I would not call studies done in a self censoring country reliable, chinese people I've talk to outside the states really don't care for or against their central goverment, as long as it keeps things going progressing they are happy, they are quite willing to riot against the goverment on the things the goverment fucks up. All true but provides no evidence to your case, the US becoming just another supplier and economic partner for china is not evidence that china will "drop the USA", think of it this way: why would china drop britain, or france or germany, or turkey, etc, etc? Again how is this evidence that they will "drop the USA"? Why would china want to instigate a collapse of the US economy? China going to be the world biggest economy no matter what in 30 years or less anyways, eventually the yen will dominate over the dollar, why would china want to risk global economic shut down to crush the USA in the next few years to become supreme, when it will inevitably become supreme anyways? How often have you predicted this deep long-lasting depression... and moved the date up? You have been on this forum for 8 years, if the adminstrator would fix the search system I'm sure we could look back over your post for hte last 8 years and see. But fine lets go with it when this deep long-lasting depression going to happen, 2015-2016, lets wait and see.
Yes, and I agree with your link that says: "China’s nascent middle class, the product of the past decade’s economic boom, is looking for better government, not a different one. They’re especially concerned about issues like health, education and property values and often resist the growth-at-all-costs model Beijing has pushed." Certainly, just as happened in the US, when people get more prosperous they want a cleaner environment too. I am old enough to remember that when there was no wind you could not see across the wider, smog filled, streets in Pittsburg, the then proud, self proclaimed: "Steel Capital of the World." I told why already. Because in about three, four at the most years, it will be to China´s economic advantage to remove US and EU as competitors driving up the price of the essential imports. I.e. economically a benefit to China, if needed, to take a ONE TIME loss on the US bonds it holds by dumping them to send US and EU into deep, long lasting depression for the EVERY YEAR benefit of lower cost imports. I don´t think China will need to do this as believe the trillion dollar or more annual deficits will destroy the dollar without any push from China. Certainly China does not want that collapse yet, not for at least three years as they need to (1) grow their domestic market more and (2) switch almost all their exports to other nations first and (3) also want to hold smaller fractions of their reserves in dollars. China is doing all three of these things now - Getting ready for time when US and EU collapsed in deep depression will be a long term net benefit to China. China´s production capacity is not unlimited, especially when the pollution side effects are noted. They would rather sell it to prosperous nations that don´t need Chinese financing to buy or use it for their growing domestic needs. I have NEVER moved the date farther into the future; however, for first few years I did not tell any but then the Baron, noting that I had been predicting a terrible economic disaster for US for "ages," demanded I set one, so I did, but it was initially set at more than a decade into the future (in 2017 or later) and has been moved closer to the present not farther way as things continued to get worse. Both these post were made on 8 Oct 2007 so are now a little more than 5 years old. Here is link to the OP: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...cycle-quot-)&p=1502039&viewfull=1#post1502039 Baron´s is post 2 & my reply to him above is post 3 of that thread I started to explain how and why the collapse was coming. I.e. Initially I was predicting the run on dollar was in or after October 2016! but later I moved it to Halloween 2014. I´ll thank you to retract your false insinuation that I have been “moving the goal posts farther way” when in fact I have done just the opposite. Few have seen so far in advance as I did the disaster that you now agree is coming or done as much as I have to try to avoid it, when that was still possible - Many warning posts and a book. Dark Visitor, which is a cosmic horror story about the approach of a small black hole that will slightly change Earth´s orbit as it passes by the solar system. The new, more elliptical orbit, covers the Northern Hemisphere with a permanent thick ice sheet in about a decade and makes torrential rains in the Southern, that wash all the coastal cities into the sea. My hope was that some of the bright students then seeking well paid careers in law and Wall Street might at least check out the physics told in the book and become more interested in a science career. – Story is physically possible but the book´s astronomer, who is making the predictions based on minor perturbations of Pluto´s orbit he has observed does not exist. (He like me, lives in the Southern Hemisphere and currently Pluto can only be well seen from it – why he is first to be reporting the coming disaster.)
I said I agree that taking a Professor and putting them to work sweeping is not right. But, that's not my question. My question is how do you know that the Professor is better at teaching at University and wouldn't be better put to work sweeping streets? How CAN you know? You seem to 'feel' like you know the answer to that question. Which is itself sort of interesting given you are not privy to any information regarding Physics and Math Professors in China. The Communist Party has not shared any information with you have they? See my point? You and billions other of us ARE the free-market. Through our individual choices WE will freely through our choice and the Professors freely through their choice ensure that Professors teach at University and not sweep streets. I hope that I'm being a bit more clear in this second post. Suppose the following hypothetical: There was garbage all over the streets in China. Suppose streets were in desperate need of sweeping. Yet, there was a WAY over abundance of Math Professors. Actually, 1000 times more Professors than students. Now what? Do you still think Professors should be lecturing and not sweeping streets? Of course not. While this may seem an absurd hypothetical, but then again, who would have ever thought there could be vast New York sized uninhabited cities rotting in the deserts of China? You want to talk about misallocation of resources. THIS the the reason why these "5 year plans" are moronic. Sure, when your boat is sinking into the abyss any moron can make a '5 hour plan' to bail water. That formula is not going to work thereafter which is now becoming evident in China. It will no more work for them than it works for us. Which is to say - it simply doesn't work. Why were YOU, without any data at all, able to recognize the absurdity of Professors sweeping streets? Isn't it amazing you were able to do that? Imagine what happens when there are billions of you in aggregate deciding how resources are allocated. A billion people in aggregate are VASTLY superior to a group of bias Communist Party Chieftains. Each with their own vested interests (family or otherwise). On a side note: A Sciforums message was sent with an IP address that identified someone from China (well a computer in China) who tried to hack into my account with 5 failed attempts two days ago.
Again, despite your basically silly post, I´ll answer the direct question: I know there is a great shortage of professors in China as China is paying huge bonuses to foreign professors who come there - in the sciences even offering to buy western made special equipment they may want and give them brand new labs etc. You even admit your example of an excess of professors and shortage of street sweeper is absurd - I agree as is most of the post, again.
Fine fine Billy I take your word for it, October 2014 it is, you mind if I make extra note on that doomsdate prediction?
Not at all, but I have said that since I made the prediction about seven years in advance of my "doomsday" date, I will think it a quite accurate one if date is less than 5% wrong. (5% of 7 years or 94 months is about plus or minus 5 months.) Would you agree with that? Surely you don´t think it is totally wrong if it is not exactly on Halloween 2014 do you?
Having been following this forum for near on ten years I can confirm Billy T's statement.. Halloween 2014.
You seem to be missing the main point here BillyT. Which is funny because you're making my point for me. My argument is we don't need the CCP because the free-market will allocate the resources. You just said you know that Professors are in short supply - yet you have no data from the CCP. Don't you get it? You, and billions of other common-sensical people, ARE the free market. Thus, there is no NEED of the CCP. As a matter of fact, the only thing the CCP can do is mess up things. They can NEVER know how to allocate resources the most efficiently. It's impossible. Can they take a guess? Sure they can. And when the Chinese economy was in total taters any idiot could see the obvious and allocate resources to repairing roads and the like. But, once that phase is completed - then the likelihood of these Five Year Plans working greatly diminishes. As a matter of fact, the ONLY reason (I maintain) why they have them is to appear to be doing something so as to do what State leaders have always done - leech off the productivity of it's citizens. One more time, YOU just said YOU knew Professors should be teaching and not sweeping. You don't have access to CCP data. If we add up ALL the other people who ALSO know this, the free-market will ensure Professors teach and sweepers sweep. Not only that, it'll come up with the ideal price for both these activities as well as the numbers needed. All without a single "Leader" doing anything. (did you bother to go to the post on Libertarianism in China? Even if you're not a Libertarian, it's still an interesting history lesson)
We can only hope. I don't see it as a doomsday prediction but as a freedomday prediction. The collapse of the current system couldn't come soon enough for me TTYTT. Unlike BillyT I don't feel quite so ready to say we'll die of hyperinflation as the USD goes the way of all the other fiat currencies that History has puked up and States have forced upon it's Citizens. For me it's totally up in the air as to what the Federal Reserve will do. As an example: Mittens stated he'd fire Bernanke. If he put in place a new Fed Chair (like Paul Volcker) and this new Tyrant did the unimaginable - raised interest rates and watched Rome burn. Well, then the USD would actually strengthen. Why do I think this may happen? Because at the end of the day, the State can call in the military and don't think the rich won't do it. Another alternative is out-right colonization of the Middle East following a horrific war. Imagine you are told you can either starve in the USA, go to prison or be a part of the "Glorious" Freedom Adventure of the ME. We've had the Draft - we can have it again. Karma - I heard she's a bitch.
