Tory or Labor can win the election?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Saint, Nov 26, 2019.

  1. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Tory or Labor can win the election?
    Can Brexit go thru parliament?
     
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  3. Seattle Valued Senior Member

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  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    The UK has a very big problem. Public sentiment is firmly in "remain" category, but the government is proceeding in the "exit" direction. Until that's resolved, politics over there is going to be a mess.
     
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  7. Baldeee Valued Senior Member

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    No, public sentiment is unfortunately not “firmly” in the remain category.
    I wish it was.
    Unfortunately now there are three categories of people: leavers, remainers, and those who simply want an end to the matter, no matter what they previously voted for.
    Ironically the latter group are blissfully oblivious to the fact that all we’ve had so far is the appetiser, the agreement to get out of the EU, not the main turkey and all the trimmings of trying to get an actual trade deal with the EU.
    BoJo reckons it can be done in 12 months.
    Maybe a few others genuinely believe that.
    Everyone else knows such a deal would likely take 3 or more years.

    Since BoJo has stated he wouldn’t ask for an extension to the timeframe for agreeing a deal, the EU will know they have all the cards, and so if any deal is reached it will not be as good as it could/should be.
    Alternatively, the hardliners in the party will be hoping that the EU won’t agree to what the UK want, and so we then crash out without a deal.
    So the fun, as they say, is only just starting, and will carry on for a good 12 months, and probably longer.

    If the Conservatives get in with a majority (quite likely).

    And as soon as a party gets in with a majority, and is also a party without the terminal internal divisions that the previous Conservatives suffered from, politics will actually run a lot more smoothly.
    One they have the majority it will take disagreement within the ranks to scupper political progress.
    So this election may well resolve the issue by 13 December.

    Failing that, if we get any sort of coalition of minority government, it will likely end in a second referendum.
    And at that point, hopefully, the remain camp will be the majority.

    So in answer to the OP: only the Tories can realistically win a majority government, but it is not guaranteed that they will do so.
    If they do win a majority, Brexit will get through Parliament, although that doesn’t resolve the actual trade deal.
    If they fail to win a majority, chances are Brexit will hang on a subsequent 2nd referendum.
     
    Bells and exchemist like this.
  8. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Excellent summary.

    The only point I would add is that Bozo would need to decide, as early as July, whether or not to ask the EU to extend the negotiating period for the final trade deal beyond the end of 2020. So, from about, ooh May onward, the news will be full of........

    .......whether or not the UK asks for an extension, or decides to risk crashing out with no deal, on bare WTO terms.

    An exact re-run of what we have endured, under May and Bozo, for the last 18 months!

    Groundhog Day or what?

    It will be quite funny to watch the faces of those who voted for Bozo on the basis of his promise to put all that behind us.
     
  9. Baldeee Valued Senior Member

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    Im sure this is why the ERG within the Conservative party finally voted for the withdrawal deal, ‘cos they got him to promise no extension to the transition period, and now they can frustrate the process by demanding the world, blame the EU (again) for their intransigence, and exit on WTO terms as they always wanted.
    So once again the entire future of the UK might well be sent into turmoil by a minority within one party.

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  10. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Well in my constituency (Battersea) one has to vote Labour to keep the Tory out, so that's what I shall do, lunatics though they are.

    But in fact the one saving grace, if Bozo gets a healthy majority, is that he can shaft the ERG as he shafted the Daieoupaigh, since he won't need the ERG's votes to get his business through the HoC. So one has to hope, really, that he continues to act like the mendacious and self-interested chancer he is, and executes a volte-face and goes for a BRINO deal after all!

    Because if he does go for a WTO no deal, the consequences will be his to own, with nobody else to blame: the lorry queues, the shortages of fresh fruit and veg and medicines, etc and longer term the failure of the Auto industry to land new models to be built in the UK, the migration of industries - and banks? - to Belfast (which will thrive!) etc. And maybe a new Scottish neverendum....
     
  11. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    My view (from way over here in California) is that the Conservatives can win a majority (and probably will) but it isn't entirely certain. (Polling isn't an exact science.) Bojo is refusing to cooperate with the Brexit party, hence threatening to split the leave vote in some constituencies. The Brexit party seems to have unilaterally decided to stand down from challenging Conservatives in many constituencies that Conservatives are likely to win, but still plan to run their Brexit party candidates in socially-conservative traditionally Labour constituencies that voted for 'Leave' in the referendum. But if Bojo insists on running no-hope Conservatives in these districts as well, candidates of a party that ancestrally-Labour 'working class' locals will never give a plurality to, lefty-Labour candidates are more likely to retain them. There are many constituencies like that in Northern England.

    If Labour somehow wins, it will be because Bojo shot himself in the foot.

    The question if Conservatives win a decent majority, is how many of the ostensible "Conservatives" elected will really be socially left-leaning, remain-favoring, expensive-suit-wearing Tory "wets". Instruments of the London "British banker" class that has so much influence over Whitehall and basically pulled Theresa May's strings. (The very same people that the Labour leave voters I referred to above viscerally can't stand.) Even if the Conservatives win a solid majority in Parliament, they aren't likely to all vote the same way on Brexit.

    It's interesting how so many political parties around the world are losing whatever internal cohesion they might once have had, and are dividing into increasingly hostile contending internal factions, becoming 'parties' in name only. The British Conservatives are obviously displaying it (despite the 'manifestoes', there's no such thing as a single 'Conservative' view on anything), as is Labour (Venezuela-style Trotskyists vs more Blair-ite New Labour). It's obviously happening with the leading American political parties as well. We see similar stresses in Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian allies. In much of the rest of Continental Europe, politics seem to be exceedingly fluid with many parties forming and disappearing seemingly overnight, rising and falling meteorically in the polls.

    Politics are in flux right now all around the Western world. I expect a new lineup of what essentially will be new political parties to eventually emerge, ones that actually share a vision and a program, whether or not they retain the old party names.

    We live in interesting times.
     
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2019
  12. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    4,752
    Will Scotland have second referendum to get independence?
    Why the Scottish wants to split from England?
     
  13. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Will Corbyn's antisemitism cause Labor to lose many votes?
     
  14. Baldeee Valued Senior Member

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    To the first: eventually.
    If conservatives win a majority, it might not be for a while.
    If labour form a minority government they will need SNP support and the price of that will be a 2nd independence referendum, ideally for SNP in 2020 but labour say it wouldn’t be for a couple of years.
    But it would likely happen quite soon.

    To the second: because they are fed up with their rules being mostly dictated to them by Westminster.
    The British government is, it must be said, pretty much England-centric, and within that fairly London-centric, so Scotland see themselves being governed by a government who don’t really care too much about them.
    The UK government has, in the past 10 or so years, devolved considerably more powers to each of the three other regions than ever before, but that was to appease the threat of independence.
    Scotland also think they have the economic capability to go independent, although this seems to change with the wind, and the price of oil.
    There would be huge fights over any “divorce” arrangements, such as whether Scotland take on their share of the Uk national debt, who owns the oil fields, who owns the nuclear arsenal, where it might be stationed, the currency Scotland adopt etc, and when Scotland then tries to re-enter the EU as a separate nation there would be all the issues of a land-border and customs between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
    But that would depend on the amazing, wonderful, brilliant, future relationship that BoJo and his cronies agree for the UK with the EU.

    So in part they want to leave the UK for the same reason that the UK wanted to leave the EU.
    Which is then ironic that Scotland would want to rejoin the EU.

    Also Scotland used to be independent, up until 1707, and there has always been a nationalism within Scotland (and Wales) that England has never really had to the same degree, possibly due to England always having been the ruling power and never the ruled.
     
  15. Baldeee Valued Senior Member

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    Difficult to say as there are possibly more important issues at play in the election this time.
    No doubt someone will produce a poll about how jewish people have voted this time and compare it to last and from that draw a view as to the effect of anti semitism within the Labour Party, and the way they have handled it.
    But there are so many issues, such as the economy, Brexit, that they may have lost those votes anyway, or may not lose then, or even gain some.
    In any such case, other than through anecdotal evidence, how can one determine what effect a single issue has?
    Certainly some have said they would have voted labour but now won’t as a direct result of the issue.
     
  16. mathman Valued Senior Member

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    What would happen if neither party can form a government (like Israel now)?
     
  17. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    All hail King Charles! At least he'll give everyone free state-sponsored homeopathy treatments, and he doesn't spend as much time around his brother these days

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    Last edited: Dec 10, 2019
  18. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    The election took place yesterday, Dec 12, and the results are in. All 650 Parliamentary constituencies are officially declared.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50770798

    The Conservatives won 365 seats, a gain of +47. Labour won 203 seats, a loss of -59. The Scottish national party won 48 seats, a gain of +13. The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats, a loss of -1. The Democratic Unionists won 8 seats, a loss of -2. And various others (Greens, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein) won 15 a gain of +2.

    The results are pretty dramatic. It's the Conservatives' best result since Margaret Thatcher. It's Labour's worst result in most of our lifetimes.

    In Scotland, Labour was wiped out, winning only one seat in central Edinburgh. The whole of the formerly "red Clyde" abandoned Labour and went to the SNP. Labour didn't win a single seat in Glasgow or its surroundings. That explains the SNP's 13 seat gain right there. The Conservatives held the Borders and outlying areas around Aberdeen.

    In England, the Conservatives held onto more rural areas where they were already very strong, and made serious inroads in some traditionally Labour constituencies in Northern England that voted Leave and are rather socially conservative. In the Midlands and Southern England, Labour held the trendier inner city districts and those occupied disproportionately by ethnic minorities. The Conservatives took pretty much everything else. (A sea of blue with scattered red islands.) The big exception was London where Labour won most Greater London constituencies pretty handily. (London is Britain's capital, but fewer than half the people who live there are ethnic British. It is home of the UKs government, financial and media elites, who aren't nearly as well-liked in the rest of the country as they might want to imagine.)

    Tony Blair's old seat went to the conservatives by a big margin. A number of Labour shadow ministers lost their seats.

    The big surprise to me was how poorly the Liberal Democrats did. They lost seats in Northern England. They previously seemed to be building up a bastion of support in the far Southwest in Cornwall, but were wiped out by the Conservatives there. The LDs won a few seats here and there, but their only sustained success was in a few of the wealthier and more stylish London constituencies. I wasn't surprised to see lots of voters bailing on Labour (the Corbyn factor, Britain's own Hugo Chavez) but I expected the refugees to gather under the LD banner. But a surprising number of them voted Conservative.

    The only Green victory that I saw was in central Brighton.

    And something must be said about the Brexit party. They didn't win any seats, which was a little surprising, since most observers predicted that they would win a handful. But their strategy of not running in constituencies with leave-supporting Conservative MPs while still targeting constituencies that voted leave but with remain-favoring Labour MPs, does seem to have aided the Conservatives. There are districts in Northern England where, even though the Brexit party didn't win a plurality, they did do well, obviously attracting lots of Labour votes, in some cases putting the Conservative over the top.

    It looks like Jeremy Corbyn will soon be gone as Labour leader. He's going to be under tremendous pressure to resign after this election debacle. But... the deeply entrenched Labour party Marxist activists who elevated him aren't going to be going anywhere without a battle-to-the-death.
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2019
  19. mathman Valued Senior Member

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    It looks like the Conservatives under Johnson are looking much like the US Republicans under Trump. The US has one major advantage: the analogs of Labour and LD are wings of the Democratic party, which doesn't have an analog of Corbyn to mess things up.
     
  20. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    israel is effectively at war
    they have been for decades
    i dont think you can align a social democratic process to act in a similar manner when it comes to one side verses the other in a national election format.

    British people almost know what they want but they dont know how to create it
    so they vote for people who tell them something that will do something that is vaguely close
    they cant be bothered doing the hours of study needed to comprehend how it al works
    and under that is the need to deliver government funding to public works and infrastructure that no body wants to pay for out of their own pocket
    so force is required.

    the funder-mental driving force between the 2 different states of those countries you mention is quite different.

    though British people do feel they are being invaded by other cultures trying to undermine their own cultural values.
    that is clear

    global resources are becoming a big issue with global climate change
    it is a very mixed up issue.
    people tend to vote with what they think is a more secure safer option in general
    but new action and new ideas are needed.
    politics doesn't like new ideas unless the social culture is very advanced with a good standard of health care and social security.
     
  21. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    lol
    your such a trouble maker

    charles was trying to spread organic farming while the average consumer was burning plastic to light piles of cash with so they could see the way to the sub prime mortgage sale room to buy some insurance backed no insurance backed bonds on the pyramid scam.

    but do feel free to align them as all morally equal to the British austerity on health care driven by the tory majority for the last 15 years or so

    will you be ordering any bear bile christmass pudding ?
    maybe some shark fin fortune cookies ?(that sounds kinda catchy i hope im not providing more customer interest)

    lol
    let me guess you own 48% shares in a company promised a majour health care tender by the torys if they win a 2nd term from now ?
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2019
  22. Benson Registered Senior Member

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    230
    Because Sturgeon has an abhorrent hatred of the English; racist to be exact.
     
  23. Benson Registered Senior Member

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    Quite a few topical points you mustered together there, but trying to inject a post with some information to add to the topic was as much use as an inflatable dartboard.
     

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