Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Quantum Quack, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    21,635
    Well look at this!

    On the first page of this thread I noted that even if "the number of deaths increases by 100x, it will be still less deadly than the common flu."

    And this sad fact is going to make the front page of . . . exactly zero papers in the US that are covering coronavirus:
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    A record-breaking 105 US children have died from flu so far this season
    By Gina Yu, CNN

    Updated 1:34 PM ET, Fri February 21, 2020


    It has been an "unusual" flu season with a higher proportion of children and young adults affected than the older population, according to Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

    The earlier prevalence of influenza B -- a flu strain that tends to be more common in children -- could be a reason why more children were affected, Schaffner said. Also, as the number of influenza B cases decreased, the number of H1N1 cases increased, he said. H1N1 is a subtype of the influenza A strain, which also affects children more than adults.

    "This is the first time in 25 years where [influenza B] became so common so early," said Dr. Buddy Creech, an associate professor of pediatric infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
    ========================
    Flu death toll quietly soared to 328 in California as coronavirus fears gripped U.S.
    BY CATHIE ANDERSON

    FEBRUARY 20, 2020

    While Americans have been transfixed by concerns about the potential spread of new coronavirus in the United States, a growing number of U.S. citizens have been dying as a result of the seasonal influenza epidemic.

    Public health officials announced Jan. 21 that the first confirmed case of COVID-19 arrived in the U.S. Since then, 14 other cases have been reported. During that same time period, more than 100 people have died of the flu in California.

    All told, the state Department of Public Health reported figures on Friday that show the death toll from the flu is 58 percent higher now than in the comparable period last year. In the 2019-20 season, CDPH said, 328 people died of influenza, roughly 80 percent of them since the new year began.
    ======================

    Moral of the story - by all means, let's work on a COVID-19 vaccine. But in the meantime, if you're worried about being killed by an infectious disease - get a flu vaccine and wash your hands. And be a lot more worried about the guy in the next office with a fever than getting COVID-19 from a Chinese traveler.
     
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  3. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I wonder how many people have died of the common flu in China in addition to those who have died from COVID-19 in the last 60 days? ( currently COVID-19 China deaths 2442 JH 2020-02-23) Total population China about 1.7 billion
    Deaths last 60 days in China - mainland.
    COVID -19: 2442
    Common flu: ?

    Total: ?
     
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  5. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Please explain the obvious discrepancy between reports by Gina Yu ( 105 ) and Cathie Anderson ( 328) and how that relates to the COVID-19 death toll in China (2442)
     
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  7. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    21,635
    From the Global Times:

    "An analysis led by Chinese scientists published in The Lancet Public Health in September 2019 found that there were 84,200 to 92,000 flu-related deaths in China each year, accounting for 8.2 percent of all deaths from respiratory diseases."

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml
     
  8. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,328
    Well done!
    Lets assume for the moment the figures you provided are credible.
    China flu over 60 days 14033- 15333 deaths (Average 14683 )
    COVID-19 over 60 days 2442

    COVID-19 has mortality rate of about 16.4% of the flu rate.
    So 1 COVID death to every 6 flu deaths could be speculated.

    Significant ?
    Edit: the article you linked to spends most of it's content to exploring the significant data collection problems between the USA and China.
     
  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    21,635
    That's a reasonable simplification, although it leaves out several other factors.
    Certainly. But again, you are six times more likely to be killed by ordinary flu by your note above. So if you are going to spend your efforts protecting against one over the other, it should probably be common flu.
     
  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,328
    And they are, are they not?
    But adding a further 16% to the total death toll is not to be discounted as insignificant.
     
  11. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    21,635
    Well, around here, the media is 99% COVID-19 and 1% flu. It might lead people to believe that you are more likely to get COVID rather than flu, when the opposite is true.
    Of course it's not insignificant. But again, concentrate on the more significant threats first.
     
  12. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    That low figure being directly related to the massive quarantine methods being employed globally. With out which the COVID deaths would be considerably higher.
    I understand that you feel the COVID has been over reported and scaring people needlessly. I do however also understand that putting some 400 million people under strict quarantine is pretty scary also.
    Do you think the Chinese authorities have over reacted?
     
  13. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    586
    For the US Flu 2017/18.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...cb43fc-c0ed-11e8-90c9-23f963eea204_story.html
    Latest figures from John Hopkins University dashboard.
    https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/01/23/coronavirus-outbreak-mapping-tool-649-em1-art1-dtd-health/

    Total Confirmed: 78,767, Total Deaths: 2,461, Total Recovered: 23,196 and the ratio of Confirmed/Recovered is 29.45%.
     
  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,328
    I hear the Chinese are using a survivor blood transfusion technique to improve immunity in patients...
    Convalescent plasma therapy (CPT) they call it, apparently.
     
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  15. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    4,752
    when will we get vaccine?
     
  16. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    21,635
    It's in trials now.
     
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,328
    They are going to have to start producing it soon...
    Italy has blown out and so to has South Korea.
    Global attention seems to be shifting from China to outside of China.
    By all accounts the situation in South Korea is most disturbing and could be repeated any where...
    If the incubation period is as speculated to be 30 days or so for some carriers, then the only hope is an effective vaccine.
    China has bought the world some time with it's severe quarantine regime.

    In Australia, our saving grace will probably be, low population density, High quality medical care etc.

    =======

    WHO SR 2020-02-23
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0223-sitrep-34-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=44ff8fd3_2
    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
    • Globally 78 811 confirmed (1017 new)
    • China 77 042 confirmed (650 new) 2445 deaths (97 new)
    • Outside of China 1769 confirmed (367 new) 28 countries 17 deaths (6 new)
      • In the last 24 hours there has been a 26.17% increase in confirmed cases outside of China mainland. (Workings: 1769-367=1402, 1402/367=3.82, 100/3.82= 26.17%)
      • Both Italy and South Korea have reportedly instigated severe quarantine lock downs ( both possibly involve super carrier transmissions)
      • Iran appears to be struggling with transparency issues. (8 deaths yet only 43 (NPR) confirmed cases) If the number of deaths is accurate Iran's situation could be considerably understated.
    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    • China Very High
    • Regional Level High
    • Global Level High
    Notes:
    It appears WHO data collection and collation methods are improving. International communication appears to be improving likewise.
    Discrepancies between various data sources is lessening...
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
  18. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    12,454
    If you are in good health and under 80 it does not look as if you are at much risk. But I realise you may not be either of these things.
     
  19. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,328
    at least it will be reasonably quick... lol
     
  20. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    39,397
    My impression is that we're probably getting towards a tipping point with the coronavirus, after which its worldwide general spread through the population will become unavoidable.

    It seems that South Korea has a significant problem, and that is a country that is highly connected to everywhere else.

    Some countries are covering up their statistics, effectively hiding cases, and without transparency the virus will spread further. Iran has a problem, apparently, though they aren't letting on.

    Also, most of Africa is an information vacuum in the west, as usual. There are many countries there whose governments, such as they are, won't be able to put effective measures in place to stop the virus spreading.
     
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  21. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    21,635
    We are getting towards a tipping point, but the experts are calling it the peak, not a sudden increase.

    From Nature Feb 18:

    =============
    On 11 February, Zhong Nanshan, a prominent Chinese physician leading a panel of experts helping to control the outbreak, said that the coronavirus will possibly peak by the end of February. Zhong, who is famous for discovering the SARS virus, said the situation had improved with government control measures, such as travel restrictions and extended holidays, although he admitted that it was still a “difficult period” for Wuhan. . . .

    At least one model aligns with Zhong’s estimate. Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine predict that the peak could occur anytime now. Sebastian Funk, a statistician who models infectious diseases and who coauthored the analysis, says the prediction is based on an estimate that one infected person in Wuhan was, on average, infecting between 1.5 and 4.5 others — a measure known as the virus’s effective reproduction number, or R — before the travel restrictions were introduced on 23 January. Funk estimates that at the peak around a million people, about 10% of Wuhan's population, will be infected.

    People in most Chinese cities started returning to work last week after an extended public-holiday period — opening up the possibility of new chains of transmission, says Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan.

    Nishiura says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country’s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms.

    Nishiura says he has submitted a paper describing the model and its prediction to the preprint server medRxiv. To make such a prediction, he says that his team considered the transmission potential inherent to the new virus — the basic reproduction number known as R0, which is related to R, although it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible to infection. The team estimates the R0 is between 1.5 and 2.

    He says that his model presents a relatively simplistic outlook because it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible. It also reflects the view that many people who have been infected are asymptomatic or not unwell enough to seek medical treatment. If that is the case, the current number of reported cases massively underestimates the number of people infected, he says.

    Gabriel Leung, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, says that Nishiura’s estimates are feasible.
    =================
     
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  22. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, pneumonia was traditionally known as "the old man's friend", because it was an easy and fairly comfortable way to go - compared to the others at any rate.

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  23. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Using WHO situation reports:

    Daily Transmission growth outside of China was est:
    • 2020-02-21 : 11.84%
    • 2020-02-22 : 16.83%
    • 2020-02-23 : 26.17%
    • 2020-02-24 : 16.97%
    (workings:2069-300=1769/300=5.89. 100/5.89=16.97%)
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2020

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