Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Quantum Quack, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I believe the main reason for their modicum of success is that they were able to do 5 things really well. ( include Singapore, Japan and a few other nations)
    1. Aggressively quarantine the hot spots rapidly and thoroughly ( no cost spared)
    2. Avoid over whelming their medical facilities. Especially ICU.
    3. Support their medical facilities properly with supplies and logistics. Secure transfer of ICU patients to other hospitals etc.
    4. Support their quarantined people with supplies and logistics.
    5. Superior adaptive Bio warfare planning.

    They have 8413 Confirmed with only 84 fatalities. CFR = 0.99 % JHU 19/03/2020 6am
    Their economy has taken a hit but should recover relatively easily if they manage to keep up.

    Edit: Found this

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    C/o Conversation
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
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  3. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    A common enough question...
    My thoughts,
    Billvon or others may wish to add...or correct me..

    • Most people who contract the flu do no need hospitalization.
    • The flu is not a SARS type infection. ( Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome )
    • COVID-19 is a SARS type infection. ( CDC?)
    • There is no evolved immunity to this coronavirus in the global community.
    • Hospitals manage the common flu reasonably well.
    • With the COVID-19 hospitals are quickly over run and the number of ICU units ( respirators ) are seriously unavailable, so the death toll goes up.

    Currently the Fatality rate out side of China is about 4% this will no doubt rise once USA, Africa and South America are fully implicated. Where as the flu CFR is considerably less.

    The big wild card is what is actually happening in Russia..

    China stats are lacking credibility and should not be trusted IMO

    So the key to this problem is to prevent Hospitals from being over whelmed. Slowing the spread ASAP.
    If left unchecked the global fatalities could run in to many, many millions.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
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  5. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    The biggest lesson for the USA could be that it is totally unprepared for bio terrorism or bio warfare. The Pentagon (?) should have automatically deployed once the bio threat had been realized. Perhaps they still will...
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
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  7. Write4U Valued Senior Member

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    After the Ebola pandemic, preident Obama installed a worldwide CDC network in cooperation with other countries.

    Trump dismantled this network. What we have today is the result of that irresponsible action. It is one of the reasons why Trump is wholly unfit to govern a nation, just as he was unfit to run his own private businesses.
     
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  8. wegs Matter and Pixie Dust Valued Senior Member

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    This is really disturbing.

    As is this...

    https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-the-coronavirus/

    I've learned a lot today, thanks guys.

    QQ, I forgot about the SARS component to COVID19. Thanks for taking the time to explain.
     
  9. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  10. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Well it's a new threat. And if you, personally, get sick you are probably low risk. (I am making some assumptions about your age and general health.) And your colleague may also be low risk. But if your colleague has a parent who is 81 and gets sick easily, then you going to work with a cough could kill her. The fatality rate for people over 80 is around 15% - which means one in seven will die if they get it. And there's no vaccine to protect them.

    So it's a bigger deal now than it has been in the past.

    (Keep in mind that that article was from a month and a half ago, and we understand the risks a little better now.
    Right. But if estimates are correct, this could kill well over a million people - which means it's going to be much, much worse than the flu. And since we don't understand it yet (not enough testing) that number could be higher. So a very high level of caution is indicated.
     
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  11. Write4U Valued Senior Member

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  12. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    The anxiety of knowing that something is going to be bad, but having absolutely no idea as to just how bad is unique--especially when that "something" has barely even begun. Likewise, with climate change, the severity of the impact will unfold over a (relatively) extended period of time, thus affording us at least some time to psychologically acclimate; whereas, with the Coronavirus it's more a matter of weeks and months.

    And that money vs. life trade off becomes especially stressful when living under fascistic governance. In time, paranoia will set in: are our civil liberties being curtailed in order to lessen the catastrophic impact, to flatten the curve, or are they being curtailed in part to facilitate the unleashing of an even more predatory form of capitalism than that to which we are already accustomed?

    https://www.alternet.org/2020/03/we-know-this-script-naomi-klein-warns-of-coronavirus-capitalism-in-new-video-detailing-battle-before-us/
     
  13. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    It is really sad that at a time like this you have to contend with political/power corruption issues, real or fantasy, festering a massive distrust when trust is the most valuable asset in this crisis.
    A thing to consider, when it comes down to it, is that this virus does not discriminate. It is not means tested. Money can't buy you toilet paper if there is none to buy.
    Sure money can make hunting for supplies easier, but only if money has value and their are people who are well enough to go scavenge for them.
    Climate change won't discriminate either...
    Perhaps 100 usd notes will make good toilet paper?

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    Fresh meat section. Major supermarket. 3 days now.

    Body bags make power useless...

    According to JHU the USA has 9500 confirmed cases. If this follows trends, this figure will surpass China in less than 2 weeks if not sooner as testing ramps up. Heavy properly organized quarantine strategy is the only way to slow down the growth and associated fatalities.

    Have no idea how things will be in November except that it is not going to be good.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
  14. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    Unfortunately, people do discriminate--Donald Trump, the coronavirus and the power of white privilege <<<--and compounding that life vs. money aspect is the possibility of a depression. And, as we all know from the previous one, nations tend towards one extreme or the other during and after times of economic depressions. In the U.S., if the past four decades and the past four years, particularly, are any indication...

    Wow! I've not seen anything quite like that yet, but, personally, I've never been overly concerned with matters of food. I've carried more than 3 weeks of food in a backpack on countless occasions and, despite living in a very small house (18'x22' A-frame), we've always got at least 2 months of food in stock. The food thing is just weird to me. At present, it's (at least in the U.S.) entirely an issue of (ridiculous) demand, as the supply chain is (not yet) disrupted.

    The toilet paper thing is even more mind-boggling. We've got six rolls (two person, two dog household) right now and that'll see us about two months or so--what the hell are people gonna do with dozens or rolls of toilet paper? Have I been using it wrong my entire life or something? I mean, do most people go through a freakin' roll a day? How?! Also, it's not like there aren't countless alternatives: faucet, hand, leaves and sticks, newspaper...

    At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if elections were cancelled.
     
  15. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    30,994
    In this week's (3/14) issue of my local newspaper - a free weekly that many older folks and those with children in school rely on for coupons and sales, local information they need, etc - the front page story, above the fold, was coverage of a county official meeting concerning the county response to Covid. The meeting was March 10th.

    The main speaker's main points were that the county was well prepared for Covid, that there were more deaths from the flu than from Covid so far, that "the media" was "over-reporting", that the successful handling of H1N1 in 2009 was reassuring, and that - quote -

    "We have been here before. It was all hands on deck with public health nurses. We responded and we learned a lot. We did it successfully." (referring to the H1N1 response in 2009).

    Words such as "hysteria", "fear", "widespread panic", appeared throughout - always describing reactions to media coverage of Covid, never reactions to governmental incapability or misrepresentation.

    The single accompanying and easily comprehended illustration, in the meat of the article, was not of Covid factors or any Covid related data. It was instead a graph of "influenza associated" deaths broken down by week (season), State wide, over the years 2010 - 2018. It clearly shows that influenza has killed many people each winter since the more lethal strains took hold in the State (around 2012). What few Covid numbers appeared in the article were buried in the prose, where the exponential ramping (among other features) was difficult for the less numerate to see, and the issues surrounding the lack of testing in the US were completely omitted.

    It's probably too late to walk all that back and catch up - outside of a better than average State government we're going to be riding on luck around here.
    Families with sick children; old people with bowel and nausea issues; rural septic systems that can't handle bleach or ink, stronger and higher lignin paper, or heavy laundry demands; city dwellers for whom laundry is a heavy expense in time and labor as well as coin - there are some legitimate stockpilers.
    My house buys on sale in bulk routinely to save money and shopping trips (as well as forestalling inadvertent shortages) - been doing that for years. It has many more uses than asswipe.
     
  16. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    it can also be used avoid skin contact when turning off water taps etc after cleaning hands, opening doors ( car and house) etc...
    Also super markets don't really keep a lot of TP on the shelf. It looks like a lot but it really isn't.

    Some clever entrepreneur could open up a franchise of pop up stores for bulk hoarders to make use of instead of supermarkets. Thus leaving us normal shoppers to it.
    Say Hoarder'sRus - come and get it!
     
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I don't think what is coming can be compared with the great depression all that well. They are going to have to use another word. ( mainly because it is not being caused by banking collapse etc but by a global productivity shut down.)
    For example:
    Real global unemployment is going to get a lot higher than 35% during the peak of this crisis, I would think. Homelessness will be staggering. Mortgage default, loan default will also unless the G20 can devise a plan to freeze things.
    So many people run week to week finances, and can not afford interruption with out disaster. Take one week off is hell , but take 3 months off is a proverbial nightmare...go for 6-12 months off and ...well... forget it.

    Airlines are already shedding huge numbers of trained staff. Globally.
    London Transit is about to go under...again shedding huge numbers of staff.
    Hospitality industry Cafes, restaurants, hotels, casino's, tourism etc all key employers are already shutting down.
    It is a massive problem that the worlds Governments are going to have to get together to solve, assuming they are well enough to get together.
     
  18. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    586
    Maybe we need a better model than just a free for all market that spreads more like a virus and kills everything in its path, like an out of control algal bloom in a river, until a murch larger and more potent virus takes it out of action using the exact same viral mechanism.

    But I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon while the people pay to keep the bloody virus alive because it is too big to fail and controls the major political parties.
     
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  19. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Sad story :
    Close family.
    A great grand mother, aged 91 leaves independent living to join her 90 year old husband in a nursing home because they wouldn't let her visit daily like she was doing, due to the strict visitor restrictions put in place.

    The human tragedy unfolding today is really something..all those untold stories of individual sufferance due to suddenly not being able to get close let alone hug someone..or other similar...
    Teenagers unable to meet up..
    Children locking themselves in their rooms
    Partners being forced to sleep in separate beds because one of them is a health worker..or they are just plain paranoid...
    it just goes on and on...
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
  20. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    For the U.S., to put it mildly, that is an understatement:
    [url="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maggie...avings-to-cover-a-500-emergency/#33d992f34e0d"
    63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency[/url]
     
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  21. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    If you mean Transport for London, rather than London Transit, it is not "about to go under". It is a government operation, and will in effect have as much money as it needs.
     
  22. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I was referring to a TV news segment that said something along the lines that the London transit system requires a huge injection of funds due to the dramatic drop in rider patronage. It was mainly to emphasize that the flow on effect of city wide lock downs that is sometimes not anticipated.
    btw something you may be familiar with ( key words):
    Cash flow. Global. Credit freeze...
    Reserve bank of Australia has just dropped interest rates again in an emergency move but the cost of money has gone up due to hoarding. I am not certain what all that means but I guess it would mean than loan applications would not be happily received at the moment. Apparently the threat to large corporations due to high debt is starting to be revealed.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/reserve-bank-coronavirus-response-losing-control/12071872
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
  23. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    The corona virus originated from where/what animal?
     

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