Over-population...

sHaZbOk:

Um, no offense (maybe) but that was a stupid post. SARS had nothing to do with their population laws, and the US would be LESS like china's overpopulated peice of land if we had such laws.

 

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I don't worry. Given time the human race will reach equilibrium. It won't be a pleasant state and will give us a really big reason to advance.

 

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:bugeye: Clockwood, that's like seeing a wall coming up at you when you're driving your car at 60mph and saying "well, I don't mind - we'll have stopped after the crash and it'll teach me not to drive too fast"!

 

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Equilibrate where? high population/ low populaiton/ somewhere in between? At the carrying capaciy of the land, or comfortably below it?

 

It will teach everybody ELSE not to drive too fast. It is probally the only way to get it through everybodys' heads. The species will survive it and come out better for the experience. (though there is going to be unimaginable suffering in the meantime) This may even give us a reason to get the heck off the planet.

I wont be alive during the worst of it so I am merely a spectator. My parents only had two children and I will only have two children so I am not making things worse.

 

Just move most of the people of Earth to another planet. Once I obtain some nukes and melt the polar caps, the sea level will raise 215 feet (according my calculations). Might as well plan ahead and save as many as possible.

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However, another remarkable demographic transformation is underway. Worldwide, the total fertility rate is declining and a demographic transition is taking place. Total fertility rate is the average number of children that a woman has over her lifetime. Demographic transition is the term demographers use to describe the change a nation undergoes from experiencing high mortality rates and high death rates to low death rates and low birth rates. Most western industrialized nations began to undergo a demographic transition after the Industrial Revolution. Now evidence indicates that most developing nations are undergoing a similar transition. Almost every region, except Africa, has experienced a sharp decline in fertility rates; it appears that a decline in fertility is occurring in Africa as well. The worldwide total fertility rate was estimated to be 5 births per woman when total fertility rates peaked during the period from 1965 to 1970; it is now estimated at 2.7 births. A replacement fertility rate would be 2.1 birthsper woman, or one child to replace each parent (taking into account premature deaths). Almost half of the world's population lives in countries in which the fertility rate is below replacement rates. These below countries include not only Western developed nations, but developing countries such as China,Thailand, and Sri Lanka.

Population Dynamics

however...a big if..

If such low fertility persists, it may lead to declining population size, extreme population aging, and financial pressure on social security systems. But this is a big if. As Bongaarts notes in a Policy Forum article in the journal Science, current surveys in Europe and the U.S. find that couples typically desire two children. If this goal guides their eventual reproductive behavior, lower levels of fertility will not persist.

During times when women postpone childbearing, discrepancies between total fertility rates and likely completed fertility can be as high as 0.4 births per woman—and though this may seem a small fraction, Bongaarts has calculated that it can cumulate over time to have a large impact on population size.

Many developed countries have this discrepancy between current fertility levels, which contain a tempo distortion, and still-to-be-completed fertility levels, which will be shaped by higher fertility goals, Bongaarts says. But once women stop deferring births, the distortion will disappear. On the basis of the tempo-adjusted figures, he predicts, "Assuming preferences remain at current levels, the very low fertility rates observed in the developed world will rise close to the two children most couples want."

Low Fertility Due to Delay in — not Dearth of — Births

 

That is an interesting link, Spooks ...
elsewhere it gives three estimates of population in 2150,
5.8 billion given low fertility and low mortality rates,
9.8 billion given medium fertility and low mortality rates,
16.2 billion given high fertility and low mortality rates.

I tend to agree with them on most points, and expect that the medium projection is the most likely, except for one thing;

the low estimate for mortality might not be low enough-

by 2150 I expect some remarkable developments in longevity science, and it may be that many people will be living for a significantly longer period of time,

which will cause a marked rise in population over time unless fertility levels are cut right back.
__________________
SF worldbuilding at
http://www.orionsarm.com/main.html

 

-----------lets make love, not war.

to the original poster,

>..:Look at the amount of jobs available vs. the amount of unemployed people. There just aren't enough jobs. The cities are crowded, the small towns are becoming urbanized. Small countries are breaking out in to plague-scale diseases. We're having wars. This is all the symptoms of over-population"..."

Typical angst response to the woes of overpopulation. government and people have always complained of such things. and why not? it concerns the welfare of the paying taxpayers and the condition of the society.

so, what do the lot of them do?
go forth and populate elsewhere.

and your suggestions, esp. about birth control, where do you live? in China? or do you want america to be just like that?
you'd cause more rioting and disgruntling among the christians and the other groups. i think we'll have enough of the burning down of abortion clinics thank you very much.

and the rest of ya'll replies, horrible for the most part except for blindman. he at least has some *qualifying reasoning* for the response of over population.

seriously, that's why there are events taking place that are making way for the future generations, to live in another planet. whoa, not an original concept but it's what the future holds don't you think?

and never mind about all that crap i've read that prevents us from going to mars in another thread. of course theres going to be complications but if it's not in our time maybe in several generations..but do we have time enough? will the earth overpopulate itself?

nope. not as long as there are wars and you can thank your lucky stars that there are dissention among small groups in 3rd world countries that eliminate that growth. and no i'm not for it. disgusting business if you ask me. and let's not forget the contribution america has made all in the name of *freedom*!!
i love america and for what it's worth, living in a socialist european country, i love what america stands for, even if the rest of the world is overpopulating.
y''know if you think about it, religion does play a BIG fucking role in over population. Spread your seeds or something like that. Populate the world. You can't exactly tell a devoted religious woman to stop having children when she thinks shes going to be punished?

k, and all your statistics of graphs and models showing what the world will be like and what will happen is all just envitable stuff.
let's see, 250 mil living in the us alone, or is the stats higher now?
then you come to 3rd world countries, let's give the example of India: based solely on their old world culture and lifestyle, but how about China. Always up for debate that country. All this talk about Sars and stuff, birth control and horrible executional going ons on a day to day basis. Gotta think that China is the oldest civilization in the world. Everything starts from the east and ends in the west. Now after the religions, went non. It certainly didn't do all that great to hold a candle to other countries. but thats my opinion. i personally enjoyed the days of dynastic rule.

i had to ask my 21 year old friend who has a promising career as a dentist and to have her own practice, she is so deep in her religion that she thereafter got pregnant after her first and says it's okay. Knowing full well that religion dislikes the prevention. but who knows, maybe she'll be a happier person with lots of babies and finally finishing her career at 30.

in truth, and in a focused enclosure, a man and a woman together want to have children, let them, you can't possibly deny the fact that people want to bring a little something of themselves in this world. It's a way of immortality for us. Fuck the fact that the world is overrun with trash that can't be placed at the bottom of the ocean. Let our future generation worry about it.

 

Forget about jobs and crap like that, the bottom line is there are WAY too many homo-sapiens on the planet earth. It is in never before seen plague proportions. We WOULD be culled drastically if a smarter animal than us happened to evolve because its totally not practical to have so many of one animal in any area, let alone every area.
Its bad for the planet to have so many people but its also bad for people to have so many people, its bad for every single thing on earth.
But is anything seriously being done? no.
Overpopulation is by far the most serious problem the world faces today, it is the route of just about every single problem there is. But nobody is taking it seriously. This problem is really going to kick us all in the ass soon. The longer its left unchecked the bigger the boot and the harder the kick will eventually be.

 

How much Earth is there?: 126 billion acres

Amount of Earth covered by low bio-productive oceans, deserts, ice caps, and human settlement: 94 billion acres

How much bio-productive land and sea exists? 32 billion acres

Current human population: 6 billion

How much exists per person today? 5.3 acres

How much is available per person if we leave 80% wild for the 25 million other species on Earth? 1 acre

How much do humans on average use globally ? 6.9 acres


Currently, Earth is ecologically filled with humans and as one specie we overshoot Earth's bio-capacity by 30%!

http://www.globallivingproject.org/footprint.html

what kinda asshole am i?

 

Spot on. But reducing population means reducing economic growth - so it ain't going to happen. We'll just have to wait for a disaster of some sort, the hard kick of the boot you mention. Let's hope it happens soon while there's still something left to save.

 

Howabout the rule that you may only breed after the age of thirty? Be very evenhanded and would affect nobody in my family one bit. We have a habit marrying late. hehe

 

I have a crazy ridiculous outlandish plan!

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Every infant born is given an injection that makes them infertile. At the age of 30 people take a test(if they wish) to see if they are worthy of breeding. It would be a very strict, mental and physical exam, only the most ideal humans will pass. When they pass they are given the antidote to the injection and they are free to have children.

This is a rough idea that would need to be thoroughly polished before it was fed to the public but I think it can work. We just need to make it seem as un-insulting as possible. After a few generations people would get used to it and it would just be accepted that very few people can breed. At first most people won't be able to so they won't feel too bad.

What do you think?

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aah screw you guys, I still say I'd make the best king of earth ever.

 

Dr. Lou

have you seen that classic movie, "Logans Run?"
everyone i think over 30 has to be eliminated?

your concept is sort of funny, although it could work if people will even let you near their babies! haha

 

doc

Overpopulation is by far the most serious problem the world faces today, it is the route of just about every single problem there is.

perhaps so but could you make your case with a bit more detail?
there are plenty of projections flying around. pick one that you favor and perhaps we can discuss it

 

That is the case if you ignore the fact that other people are having more than 2 babies. Since the population of the earth is rising, we can say that, on average, people are having more than 2 babies.

Thus, since it is within your power not to have babies, it would be wrong to have any because you will still be contributing to the high average and increased population. And you KNOW that other people are still having babies, right? So you can't argue that in one generation a bunch of people will have your same idea and wipe out the human race by not procreating.

Overpopulation is NOT a crisis. Obviously we should try to slow it down by getting people to use protection and only have so many kids, but so what if that doesn't work and we balloon out of control? There is a natural safeguard to fix such things. Too many people for the amount of food? Opps! You died!

Harsh, but it works. (Humans would take mass starvations to be serious problems and would be smart and THEN fix it - putting an end to fluxuations (see below).)

In nature, a predator eats too much of the prey. The predator's population increases. Too few prey are left to sustain the life of the predators. Many of the predators die. Then the prey aren't being picked upen and increase. And the cycle repeats. Those are what I mean by fluxuations in populations.

In those cases there are geography considerations, but even for humans who can eat anything, anywhere - there are other factors on our side, like intelligence, to stop us from eating everything that exists and then completely becoming extinct from it.

 

We owe it to mother earth to live on. We owe it to mother nature to leave earth behind and spread beyond her embrace and take the universe that has been given to us. To go into decline is to say we have had enough and we should just sit back and wait for our death. [/B][/QUOTE]

Most of your reply was so smart and thought through that I couldnt help but be disappointed at the last words.
We`re a part of nature as anything else, and not more special than any other speices, even thoug we like to put ourselves in the high seats.
More people means more space needed (slowly turning forests into city jungles), food and production increases, more cars etc.
Bad for nature (extinction of animal species to name one problem) and bad for human (people like myself living in polluted city hellholes).

 

Clockwood said,

EI_Sparks responded,

i think thats the point, human history shows that we consistently react only after we "hit the wall" or are too close to avoid it completely.

i dont like it and on an individual level i try to do better but when it comes to humanity as a whole i tend to agree with clockwood. We rarely, if ever, get enough momentum for a given concern to move proactively.


buff

 

heyya all

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in response to the thread starter post only
i would like to point out a few minor yet major wee things

one
the rich get richer and constanly increase their profit margins
the technology evolution has been used as an excuse to lay off millions of jobs to increase profit
so the debate about the job situation in relation to population is a blatent lie preached to those who dont know any better

two
if people agree to have either one or two children only and are forced to go to parenting classes prior to conception the population would stabalise on a current bassis
birth control should be compulsory for all fertile people under legal age
HOWEVER the current money has not been invested to produce something that may not cause long term health problems
SO that can be used as a self fulfilling prophecy at the expense of children

three
people who have the desire to have many children have seriouse
mental issues that requires treatment
such a concept is contrary to quality parenting
it is usualy linked to a desire to abandon the role of the parent to the oldest child and de-stabalise the learning environment for all the children amoung other things

currently the majority of the worlds population is too greedy and selfish to allow the elimination of fatal diseases and such other causes of mass population control
too often religouse creed minded people use their abilty to breed to create their own little church of slaves around themselfs
freakin sick-oes

all those considering the concept of sons and daughters to work the farm are stuck in the ignorance of beliefe that suggests you are stretching your abilities to operate a computer and should not operate food processors and other labour saving devices in fear of being a hypocrite

peace light truth love
groove on all

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