Expert says bird flu has killed 300 people in China

24 November 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Debora MacKenzie

A respected Japanese scientist, who works with the World Health Organization, says 300 people have died of H5N1 bird flu in China, including seven cases caused by human-to-human transmission . . .

Masato Tashiro, head of virology at Tokyo’s National Institute of Infectious Disease – a WHO-collaborating centre for bird flu – told the meeting of virologists in Marburg, Germany, on 19 November that “we have been systematically deceived” . His comments were reported in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

He told the stunned meeting, called to mark the retirement of a senior German virologist, that there have been “several dozen” outbreaks in people, 300 confirmed deaths and 3000 people placed in isolation with suspected cases . . .

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8371

 

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Muhlenberg,
IF this is true - 7 cases of human to human transmission - then the shit has hit the fan !!!!!!!!!

H5N1 has gone human !!!!!!!!!!!

That is BAD !!!!!

Merry X-mas - remember to ask for a box of tamiflu as a X-mas present !!!!!!!

It might just save your life ..........

 

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300 people out of over a billion? Not bad odds.

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- N

 

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Wait, what flu? What the hell are you talking about?

Also, as with neildo, 300 out of over 1,500,000,000? Not really that big of a fuckin' loss.

 

I don't think the real figure even comes close to 300 (from below).

 

More people in china probably died of autoerotic asphyxiation in the same period of time.

 

Terrible odds if this is H-H. We will know soon enough. Influenza A has never been stopped. On average, an infected person infects two others. That means 1,024 cases within a month from Patient Zero. After that the math really kicks in. Hundreds of millions within 90 days. H1N1 went global in 1918 in a few months. H5N1 could go global in days.

The Wilson Center held an Avian flu conference on Nov 30th. Osterholm made very public some numbers (1.6 billion deaths, for instance, if H5N1 goes H-H and keeps its current fatality rate) WHO and the CDC have preferred to keep quiet . Some of his comments are here, below those of Cornell's Alfonso Torres (check the link at the site for the full PDF downloads of all speakers).

 

Neildo, Hapsburg, Facial, Clockwood ,

If H5N1 goes human - it will be EXTREMELY difficult to stop initially - and IMPOSSIBLE to stop if it spreads initially .........

More than 1 out of 2 ,of WP (world population) expected to be infected.

1 out of 4 ,of WP will get serious symptoms (half of all infected) , needing tamiflu/relenza/hospitalization

1 out of 6 , of WP expected to die ......... depending on how much medicine has been stocked in your country ....

Hardly good odds ......

 

Especially considering the idiot public. The reation is always the same. This is hype and the government isn't doing enough to stop it (yeah, those thoughts contradict each other and make no sense but the idiot public makes no sense).

 

Muhlenberg,

You really can`t blame them - if someone finds out a terrible danger is lurking,
on which they have no influence ; they initially react with 2 different set of thoughts:

1) wishfull thinking : it is not so bad - a hype ...
2) someone must save us - the government ......

it is human and normal to do that ......

 

more people die from smoking everyday.

 

Nuke 'em then. If it's that bad an epedemic, then wipe out the disease by wiping out those with it.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to find out that types of bird flu have already made it through rural China according to the statistics older Chinese are less likely to get it and Die so maybe prievious exposure has innoculated them.

 

Hapsburg ,

"Nuke´em " !! , well, it might work , but from an ethical point of view , that is unacceptable ..

The ethical thing to do is quarantine , if you got a city with 600,000 people and a disease which kills 1 out of 6 : by quarantine only 100,000 dies and half a million survives - and the quarantine prevents the disease from spreading ...

if you nuke´em you kill all 600,000 !!!

Would you like to nuke Louisville with your family in the city ????

 

RonVolk ,

You are right , the H5N1 mortality rate among young people is sky high - older people often survive !!

 

Fuck ethics. I don't care if they die.

No, 'cause then, I would die, and I would not like that.

 

Well hey, if it does become a huge outbreak, we can finally shut down all incoming traffic to the states and be under military rule just as PNAC wants.

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- N

 

Very true. We need some of that good old fashion stocism around. Or a public which is more rational (yeah, fat chance of that).

H5N1 doesn't concern me personally in the slightest. It is a fascinating little bug is all. It becomes more than a little annoying when trying to discuss what the thing is doing one is accussed of panic and hype. This virus is what it is. It may result in changes in society we cannot predict. Hundreds of millions could die in 10 to 12 months . Or it may attentuate itself into something which doesn't became a big event. But unless there is some breakthrough (which those who dismiss this always count on) an HPAI will some day cause a pandemic as bad or worse than 1918.

 

So how does writing posts or worrying about it going to do anything to help? If, as citizens, we were completely ignorant of the virus, would it change anything?

And it may not. But what is it that you suggest that we, as citizens, do about it? Does posting our worry and concern help at all?

Baron Max

 

Max ,

1) as a citizen you do have influence - write to your congressman and demand ,that the government stocks tamiflu and relenza, and prepares hospitals for isolation of infected victims ...

2) get a box of tamiflu yourself - treatment should be started within 2 days of the disease - and when the pandemic comes , it will be impossible to get any medication for private people .......

After reading about H5N1, I have got 2 boxes of tamiflu myself .......
I am cool and stoic now ......he,he.......