(1) Slate↱ is running Votecastr this year, and while I tend to distrust market naming trends, I happened to see some old footage of the RCA 501, so ... great. (2) There is a turnout tracker↱, which is part of what makes this project interesting; this year we have at least one source controversially delivering real-time estimates on vote totals. (3) WBUR's Here and Now↱ gave the issue some attention yesterday, but there is no transcript posted. (4) Josh Voorhees↱ explains the way it works, and includes some early counts. (5) Hillary Clinton leads in Florida, according to estimates of over five million votes cast; and also in Colorado, according to estimates of over 1.5 million votes cast. (6) If the RCA 501 is any lesson, the other two television network computational projection projects failed to identify the winner, and the NBC News projection wasn't especially impressive regarding the final numbers. (7) Personally, I stand with the conventional wisdom against depressing the vote in the West. To the other, this is the sort of year where bad news might rally up some voters. Today is strangely unpredictable because this is a year when none of the indicators that ought to give, say, Democrats comfort, can be confidently described as reliable. (8) Crosstab crossover sidebar: I do wonder who has the reserve of unknown voters. Donald Trump and his supporters imagine they have large hidden suppport. There has been chatter in recent days about Republican wives preparing to vote for Hillary Clinton. Thing is, these are Americans, so anything is possible.
Trump Card Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! "Judge reads lawsuit and says, in disbelief, ‘What are you asking for?’" ―Jon Ralston↱ The slug for Ben Mathis-Lilley's↱ report at Slate appears to have been, "Incredulous Nevada judge rejects Trump voting lawsuit", and that probably would have served well enough. What they settled on for a headline is a bit more entertaining: "The Trump Campaign's First Attempt at a Voting-Related Lawsuit Did Not Go Well". The lede: The Trump campaign filed a lawsuit Tuesday alleging that early voting in Clark County, Nevada, (which is where Las Vegas is) had been improperly handled in a way that was "intentionally coordinated with Democratic activists in order to skew the vote unlawfully in favor of Democratic candidates"). Their demands were ... well, it apparently wasn't entirely clear, even to the judge who took the case, Gloria Sturman, what their demands were .... It only goes downhill from there. ____________________ Notes: Mathis-Lilley, Ben. "The Trump Campaign's First Attempt at a Voting-Related Lawsuit Did Not Go Well". Slate. 8 November 2016. Slate.com. 8 November 2016. http://slate.me/2fAnlbi Ralston, Jon. "Judge reads lawsuit and says". Twitter. 8 November 2016. Twitter.com. 8 November 2016. http://bit.ly/2fYiRMw
Newswire: Reuters Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! • Reuters (Maurice Tamman)↱: "With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project." • Reuters (Olivia Oran and Sumeet Chatterjee)↱: "Big global banks, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co and HSBC are bracing for potential tumult on financial markets after Tuesday's U.S. election." • Reuters (Sinead Carew)↱: Headline ― "Wall Street rise as traders bet on Clinton election win" • Live updates from Reuters↱: Election news from around the nation.
I think that bleeding the Trump camp dry of financial resources is going to be interesting to watch. There is every indication that laws suits will be filed in all Trump losing states. I wonder how much money he has to loose though?
That's a good question. Since Trump has refused to release any financial information, none of us know the answer to your question. But I suspect, he doesn't have a lot. If he did spend 100 million of his own money as he asserted he would do, a good portion of that money was spent on his businesses. So his real cost should be something less than 100 million dollars. Two, Trump's much ballyhooed businesses appear to be losing a great deal of money. I think the guy is being bled dry. Trump has severely damaged his brand and that will be reflected in his business. But he has a staff of lawyers on his payroll, so the marginal cost of filing law suits isn't much. He can file law suits all day long and he probably will. But they will likely be summarily thrown out of court as was the case in Nevada. In some ways this is an existential problem for Trump, so money doesn't matter. His ego, his narcissism are on the line. I think at the end of the day Trump have spent more than he can afford do spend on this election. His out of pocket costs are probably the least of his costs. The cost to his brand could easily run into the billions and the emotional costs are incalculable.
so for him it is a do or die situation.. cycle/roll* his creditors ( including support base) to prop up his claim to fame. One problem for Trump is that eventually the creditors get jacked off by the BS. * using one creditor to fund the debt of another on a monthly cycle. (typical strategy of someone facing business or personal bankruptcy...)
He won't lose any money. No doubt all the people who donated to his campaign will foot the bill. And it wouldn't surprise me if any additional monies needed comes from his charity, which is also mostly other people's money.
Los Angeles Times: Violence near polling site, Azusa, California • Los Angeles Times (Rocha, et al.)↱: "One person was killed and at least three others were wounded Tuesday in an active shooting near a polling place in Azusa." There is no information suggesting the violence is or isn't related to the polling site, nor anything else in the neighborhood.
FiveThirtyEight.com • Live updates from FiveThirtyEight↱: Election news and analysis. • FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver)↱ How important is Florida? (Polls in the eastern part of the state close in a few minutes.) If Clinton wins it, her probability of winning the Electoral College would shoot up to 93 percent from 71 percent, according to our election night model. And if Trump were to win it, his chances would increase to 59 percent from 29 percent. [18.53 ET]
NBC News • Live updates from NBC News↱: Election news from around the nation. Note: First east coast polls are closing.
NBC News • Emma Margolin↱: Clinton campaign wins request to extend voting hours in Durham County, NC. • Adam Howard↱: Former President George W. Bush announces abstention in presidential vote. • Tracy Connor↱: Pennsylvania voters report vote flipping. Edit: Revise & extend my remarks. (8 November 2016, 16.24 PT)
This election has many people literally on the edge of their seats or holding their breath. Dumbfounded either way but i dont know if i will be shocked that trump the proverbial antichrist would be president or shocked at the making of history with the first female president.
FiveThirtyEight.com • Harry Enten↱: I'm looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she's running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it's going to be a very long night for Trump.
Florida: Update Remembering that Florida is split between Eastern and Central time, it should be noted that at seventy-three percent of precincts reported, Hillary Clinton leads by 170,000+ votes out of 6.8m+ logged.
Multiple Projections Let's see: Clinton ― Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island Trump ― Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee Clinton 75 | 66 Trump
It always comes down to Miami Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward Counties. That decided the election in 2012.
