Australian Federal Election 2016

The party seems to believe that only Abbott can save them now.. Well, the right wing of the party are saying that.

And if they do that, then it is clear they have absolutely no idea of what the electorate actually wants. People did not turn to Labor, the Greens and Xenophon and cause such a huge swing because we want more right wing policies. There was an interesting article by Amanda Vanstone, discussing the call from many within the Liberals and the Nationals to bring Abbott back despite the huge gains by Nick Xenophon and what that shows about the electorate in general and she makes some pretty valid points.

One of the key indicators of where the government needs to go is the Xenophon vote. He says he wants to drag the major parties towards the centre. It's not rocket science; the bell curve of votes tells us all that's where the majority of Australia sits. It's always been that way.

Xenophon may not have directed preferences, leaving the voter to decide. But once Xenophon candidates are elected he will be the key influence on where their votes go. Someone who wants to take politics more to the centre now plays a pivotal role in Australia's future. Nobody will get anything done without Xenophon. This is no time for bruised egos to try to drag the Liberal Party to the right.

Failing to see the bitter truth of the countless polls showing the unpopularity of the former leader, both he and some supporters, somewhat incredibly, believe they were destined for victory. Reality says the story would have been much worse if the Coalition had stayed with Abbott. Voter support was locked in at all-time lows. There was no circuit-breaker in sight.

But people often lack the capacity to see themselves as others see them. It's quite normal to want to see the world through our eyes only. It's just not reality. That's why we often have to ask "What galaxy are you living in?"

Of course, that means they will now believe Abbott should be back in cabinet. If anyone believed Abbott had given up on his leadership aspirations they were living in another universe. Abbott's first priority has always been Abbott. However, even he must see that Labor ads with him promising no cuts to the ABC or education were devastatingly damaging. Breach trust once and it's hard to regain. Abbott did that to the Coalition's reputation, but he and his supporters won't recognise that.

Disagree with him as one may, Abbott is no fool. But he's human and the desire to be back in cabinet will for him outweigh the reality that he would be unable to contain the desire to return to the leadership. What's good for him will outweigh what's good for the government.

That a lurch to the right is not the solution should be obvious from the Xenophon vote. If that isn't enough just look at Tasmania as an example. The Tasmanian result is disappointing, to say the least, for the Coalition.

Eric Abetz, chief henchman for the Abbott dissenters and not a minister, led the team. Minister Richard Colbeck was relegated below Abetz supporters. Ego and fighting your own, rather than your enemy, seemed to rule the day. Abetz runs the Liberal Party in Tasmania and it will be interesting to hear the explanation for the loss of so many seats. It's just nonsense to imagine that people voted for Labor candidates because the Liberals weren't right wing enough!

Government members need to recognise that to get anything done they need Xenophon. Abbott and Abetz never had a really effective relationship with him. By all accounts Turnbull and George Brandis in the Senate moved to improve that. That will be important.​

And she is absolutely correct.

Whether the Coalition are able to recognise this is another thing altogether. But the call for Abbott to rise up again clearly indicates they have yet again failed to read the general mood of the electorate.

If Turnbull manages to hold on to the leadership of the Liberal Party and the position of Prime Minister, he needs to bring himself to the table. He needs to swing away from the far right because it is clear, this is not what the electorate wants in the Lower House.

As for how he ran his campaign. It was disappointing, because he was either not present or very distant. There seemed to be that expectation from him that he would win. That is what he thought, that he would win because that is what he deserved and expected. It was astonishing really. Shorten ran a good campaign, he got out there, spoke with people, unlike Turnbull who only did press and little else. I did not agree with the whole Mediscare thing. What Shorten should have pushed more were the general cuts to Medicare services, such as blood tests, scans, x-rays, the complete stuff up with the GP payments..

What I found distasteful in Turnbull's speech in the wee hours after the election was the implication that voters were stupid enough to believe the Mediscare lie. We weren't. His belief that this is what turned voters to Labor is an insult to voters. People didn't vote Labor because of Mediscare. The swing to Labor was simply because the Turnbull Government failed to bring Turnbull to the table and instead pushed a right wing agenda from Abbott and co that Australians did not want.

 

I think it is the politics of fear. Hanson and Niles appealed to the far right. The far right who distrust Turnbull after the removal of Abbott, and their feeling that the Coalition is simply not to the right enough for their liking. Interestingly, Hanson has said that she would support a plebiscite for marriage equality. Whether she or her fellow One Nation senators vote for it is another thing altogether. She was being interviewed here and I caught some of her comments on her policies. Yes, she is still insane and a xenophobe. But her policies in pushing for more funding to fight the ICE epidemic are some of the things that would have appealed to voters in QLD as we are literally in an ICE epidemic.

Scarily, the mother of a child who goes to school with my kids, a Muslim woman, called me today to organise a play date with the kids later on in the week and we were naturally discussing the election. She said she voted for Pauline. I was appalled and couldn't believe it. She simply said that while she disagrees vehemently with many of her policies, a lot of her other policies made sense, such as for superannuation, the ICE epidemic and crime in general, health. She had apparently met Pauline a few months ago and said that in person she was lovely, and she felt connected with her because she listened to her concerns. Pauline was apparently very polite, very interested in her take on life in Australia as a migrant, was very kind and understanding and encouraging when she found out that she was a doctor as was her husband and discussed issues such as immigration - especially professional migrants who could help out in the country areas where doctors are in short supply and was really interested in her experiences of coming here and working in Mt Isa for several years before moving to the city. She actually managed to appeal to a Muslim couple, despite her horrid views on Islam.. She said that they know where Hanson stands unlike many other politicians who say one thing while meaning something else and she rather honesty and openness than the major parties who do things on the sly and discriminate on the sly. So she appeals to a wide range of voters, I guess. I don't see the appeal, but some do, regardless of what her other policies might be.

It won't now.

The unpopularity of the bill should have been warning enough. I think it just goes to show just how out of touch the Coalition was.

Pretty much.

I don't know if we should or should want another election in the very near future to break any possible deadlock. I don't think I could stand another month or so of the campaign ads.

Shorten may have damaged himself with the Mediscare thing. Whether voters would trust him after that, who knows. Australians may turn on him for it in the coming months. He has done amazingly well to get the party back to this point. I mean, we are now waiting for pre-vote and postal vote counts to determine the Government and at present Labor is ahead. That this election could come down to a few votes is damning for the Coalition. Shorten's focus on what people are concerned about (Mediscare aside) was game changing for him and Labor.

Personally I think Tanya or Penny should take over. I think they connect better with people.

With rising house prices, cuts to health and education and science and research, the whole argument for doctor co-payments, the education fee horror show, teenagers leaving school losing access to things like Austudy and jobsearch payments is what mattered to people. The Coalition fought for a trickle down effect. It was never going to work.

 

I was interested to see what Turnbull would do when he overthrew Abbott. Because I knew that unlike Abbott, he believed in and understood the risk of climate change, he was pro-marriage equality, he was pro-NBN, pro CSIRO, he was pro-health care, particularly for women and women's reproductive rights, who was pro removing children from detention. Abbott was against all of those things and Turnbull resonated with everyone across the board. There was actual excitement that he might put the Abbott era behind us and move on. And it all went pfft.

There was no change.

Labor would not have had a chance if Turnbull brought himself instead of Abbott to the table and to the election.

For me personally, when he took over, I actually wondered to myself whether this would be the first time I would feel tempted to vote for a Liberal. And when nothing changed, when he just carried on as Abbott had before him, that shine quickly wore off. I mean, he had to be dragged to a plebiscite on marriage equality... What the hell? This was someone who firmly believed in marriage equality and once he became PM, he had to be forced to even put it on the table and he did so by suggesting a plebiscite that was costly and completely unnecessary. When Turnbull became PM, he disappeared. Who he was, disappeared. And he just became Abbott, but with better elocution and dress sense.

So now I ask myself whether pre-PM Turnbull is who he really was or if it was just an act to entice the population into believing he was 'one of us'..