Automation is collapsing our economy

Well this gets to the question, what is an economy? The economy is just a method to allocate and distribute scarce/limited resources - nothing more, nothing less. We make the rules, we can change the rules. It's our choice. It's not magic, although fringe groups tend to think it is. As automation lessens the need for human labor we will ultimately need to modify the way we distribute and allocate resources by modifying fiscal policies. And the value we place to various skills sets and professions will change also. In short, our technology will make for a more socialistic and perhaps even communistic society.

On the risk side, I think there is also a very real threat that we may fall victim to our own technology. The few may misuse our technology to enslave the majority. That is what scares me about the future. We can see it even now (e.g. Fox News and Republican entertainment). As technology allows us to better predict and manipulate human behaviors, we may lose our identities and freedoms to the elites within our society.

 

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As I proved in post 153, Joepistole was wrong to say in post 152: "The demand for labor is measured by the unemployment rate." The unemployment rate actually reflects the falling labor participation rate, and that is falling NOT be cause the old (60 or more years of age) are giving up looking for work more than they did in the past - their participation in the labor force, while smaller than the 59 and less age group has actually been INCREASING as a percentage. They did not save enough for nice retirement, and know if they stop working they will never get another job, so are hanging on to the one they have. - less opening for the young to advance into.)

However, my point here, already posted several times, is that the BLS's change in 1980 of the way unemployment is calculated (back then all who wanted work but had given up as could not find any were still counted as "unemployed" - as ShadowStats still does.) is, as a measure of "unemployed," is forcing the Fed to change its tune:

I.e. the economy still needs more than 50 Billion dollars month of thin-air money created for many years still. Fed indirectly admits this with the promises to hold interest rates low for the "foreseeable future." - I.e. they do that by buying Treasury bonds. Even if that were not necessary for propping up the stock market etc. (has not made jobs at the 200,000 / month rate needed to keep up with the growing population entering the labor force) the Fed must buy bonds to make rolling the growing debt at interest rates the US can afford possible.

SUMMARY: BLS's not counting those who want work but could not find any and thus have stopped wasting their time trying as "not unemployed" as not part of the labor force, has the participation rate now at a 40 year low and headed lower still. Thus the Fed must, and is backing away from idea the OE can be significantly reduced (still printing 3/4 of a trillion per year of new funny money is not "significantly reduced," but is the road to Zimbabwe) when the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%* This problem for the Fed would not exist if BLS switched back to the 1980 methodology of calculating unemployment rate, but it is 22% if that is done, so the fiction of steady recovery (except for the rich stock owners) would be exposed. (The young and jobs less living in Dad's basement know this already.)

* If BLS keeps using current definitions of "unemployed' and the participation rate continues to fall, then US will soon have MORE than "Full employment's" 94.5% employed (Unemployment less than 5.5%)!: As I (and others) have said before: There are three types of lies: "white lies," "dam lies" and statistics.

 

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Let's just leave it at this, you have some very unconventional views and notions about economics.

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And that is one reason you use unconventional sources.

 

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Yes I do usually quote Bloomberg etc. and as far as my "very unconventional views and notions about economics." the Fed just announce they agree with me that the unemployment rate should not and will not be any special policy guide*: (They don't tell why, as I did, namely that it mainly reflects the falling labor force participation rate as it is not good form for them to tell the BLS their "unemployment numbers are non-sense" which most who seek, or have sought, a job already know.):

Woops - there I go again, quoting Bloomberg - shame, shame on me.

Here is my recent post telling that the false BLS unemployment rate was forcing the Fed to "change its tune."

BTW, I documented my post that Fed must "change its tune" post with this quote from Bloomberg{Oh no, not 3 in one post - shame, shame, shame on me} showing the Fed has ALREADY started to back off from it earlier guidance that 6.5% was when they would tapper significantly and let interest rates rise.(I.e. FED already IS singing a different tune):

Is there a "posters anonymous" where I can get help? to stop with this quoting of Bloomberg etc?
Perhaps I should start by doing as you do? - Make something up and claim to be quoting Bloomberg as a transition stage.

For the 19th time, I again ask you for the link to Bloomberg you claimed to be quoting from.

* No wonder the US is in such an economic mess - it has been guided by the Fed, which like me, has "some very unconventional views and notions about economics". Speaking of that: Do you recall telling me I should sell my gold as it was going below $1000/ oz soon? Well yesterday it was less than $5 from $1300/oz and has already validated my prediction that it would do that by close of business today,13 February 2014 but your "superior understanding of economics" has put a lot of egg on your face. See in graphic below, the price of gold is greater than $1300/oz. I hope this does not update automatically as some charts do:

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Because shorts will dump a lot of cash trying to keep POG below $1300/oz but in the end, next week, they lose money again.

Perhaps there an "economics anonymous" for sheep who believe what they read - I.e. don't understand that the fall of the price of gold after April 2013 was artificial - produced by great naked short selling of "paper gold" by JP Morgan etc. to scares the sheep into selling their share at gold ETFs like GLD, where my gold is. Well it, and their self-serving claims all should sell (so they could buy cheap) as price of gold would fall to $900/oz worked: 1200 TONNES of gold were sold, most at a loss, form the ETFs in 2013 as the price of gold was driven down by these short sellers and some manipulation at the London gold fixing, which I have explained in detail how easily it was done in post125 of the "gold bubble goes pop" thread. Here, for your convenience, I quote that part of post 125:

"Another way to falsely lower or fix the price of gold used for years, but now not very effective was via the London fix procedure.** Only five big banks were called on the phone twice daily and asked how many ounces they wanted to buy or sell at $ P1/oz. All five, by secrete prior arrangement say:

We would sell X1 thru X5 ounce at P1, so they are called again with second question: How many ounces would you buy or sell at P2 which is less than P1. Perhaps one, #3, says: We would buy X3 oz and the others are all sellers still with X1+X2+X4+X5 >>> X3. So all are called again. Eventually perhaps at P6, much lower than P1, but not too ridiculously lower to create too much suspicion, the sum of the Xs of the buyers is nearly the same a the sum of the Xs of the seller and that P6 is the London price fix (and when I say "fixed" I mean it both ways.)"

** BTW another of my brave (or foolish) predictions made in post 125 is that they will not even bother to make the historic "London gold Fix" by start of 2015. The law of supply and demand, with huge and growing demand from Asia, will set the price of gold, much higher still in 2015. Sort of sad - the London gold fix is at least a 400 year old tradition (originally done in person as telephones did not exist for the first 300+ years.)

 

Despite Joepistole's claims, I do have better understandings than he does of this economics. My prediction nailed it.

 

Billy T

What has anything in your posts #164 and 165 , have anything to do with the Automation of the economy ?

 

Not much. I was only initially correcting Joepistole's false statement and then defending myself from his attack on me and my sources.

I agree automation is a huge problem, especially for a labor force like that of the US which is not as well educated in math and sciences as most that it must compete with. -They will design and build the robots that end the jobs of that poorly educated work force, which brings me back to a detour I often make:

The root cause of most of US's problems is the local funding of primary education - poor neighborhoods have bad schools and teacher who can't get a better paying job in better school district. It is why we have a large mass of voters who vote for candidate that promises the most "goodies" with bill sent to the next generation, etc.

This appears to be yet just another detour, but is the very heart of US's problem with automation. We are not getting the jobs automation is creating - designing, building and programing the robots, etc.

 

Agreed

The potential of the American poor has not been investigated

 

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Five Drone ships

They have a Land-based captain guiding them who has a full 360 view, 24/7 but can take over, if he falls asleep, etc.

 

Book Review: 'Average Is Over' by Tyler Cowen (The Holbert C. Harris Chair of Economics Professor at George Mason University)

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The top 10-15% will live like kings (those are the offspring of the Tiger Mom's of America as well as the Federal Public Servants who work for them) and the rest will be Poor Americans, who will have to "reshape their tastes" and live more like Mexicans. "Don't scoff at the beans," he says. "With an income above the national average, I receive more pleasure from the beans, which I cook with freshly ground cumin and re-hydrated, pureed chilies. Good tacos and quesadillas and tamales are cheap too, and that is one reason why they are eaten so frequently in low-income countries."

Thank the Gods we have lots and lots and lots of regulations keeping most Americans out of the hyper-regulated markets (all nice a safely locked away with various rent-seeking mechanisms like licencing, certification and out-right limits on who can and who can not sell and trade with whom). You know, to 'help' the poor (not the upper middle class Tiger Mother hoping to whip their children into said markets *cough* medicine *cough*. Yes, it's wonderful to live in a Centrally Planned State. Particularly one that destroys the value of the units we store our labor in - you know, for our own good. Because being forced to access a currency that loses value is good for the poor *cough* bullshit *cough*.

I listened to a radio interview with Cowen the other day. He suggested it would take 3 decades to fix the mess that is public education and then another 20 before the first of decently educated Americans start to enter the work force. Education isn't for 'getting a job' - but for 'creating one'. (something 99.9999999% of public servants have never had to do and have no idea HOW to do it. They don't even think correctly. Most businesses won't touch a manager with any reasonable amount of time in at a public institution because they're so incompetent at actually finding and delivering value to the public as to be more a liability than an asset).

I'm sure our lovely Government will come up with some sort of good jobs for the poor *cough* cannon fodder *cough* - but, we'll see. It's not like we live in a world where the Federal Government incompetently spends $8.5 trillion losing two more wars (again) that it lied us into (I should probably say 'scared' us into - given the nature of the "Brave" American waddling onto the battle field now-a-days *cough* drone monitor with Coke and Big Mac in cushy air conditioned room *cough*). No, if we know one thing, it's that Big Brother Loves Us.

 

No, Robots Won't Take All Our Jobs Away

No, Robots Won't Take All Our Jobs Away

Prof George Reisman makes an argument for why robots will not take away all the jobs (and will probably create quite a few more than we have today).

One interesting analogy he made was with sunlight and atmosphere. We don't stop to think that the sunlight and the air are 'taking away' jobs for humans. Suppose we lived on a planet where these were important "jobs" (say underground mars). Would 'free' sunlight and oxygen make life better or worse for human life? I mean, gee, wouldn't want to lose all those 'jobs' making light and air.....

[video=youtube;M60UVXlkbn8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M60UVXlkbn8[/video]

 

Or we could rebalance the consequences of deregulated capitalism, by taxing capital gains and very high incomes as we did during more prosperous times, and as other more prosperous people do now.

 

haha... you mean the same government that just bailed out the top 1% by shoveling generational debt onto the bottom 99? The same government that wastes trillions a year on idiotic public 'services' like the Department of 'Education'/Propaganda ($50 billion/year in Public "Services" right there). You mean the government that lied to the American public and prodded them to waddle into a couple more made-up phony Wars in the middle east and then wasted $8.5 TRILLION losing them? That one? The one that uses Drones to kill women and children in other countries while Americans waddle their way down to the polling booth to Vote for Change They Can Believe In/goodies they can steal from their grandchildren? The one that has to now spy on us? That government?

LOL! HAHAHAHAHAHAH.....

Thank The Gods we live in a non-Capitalistic highly-regulated fiat-currency based Progressive Wet Dream of a State. Complete with Progressive Central Planners in our Central Government with our Central Banksters, Centralizing our lives for them. Yes, let's institute a Progressive Age Tax. How about this: a flat "tax" of 99.9999% on all of the money, property and other assets of the Babyboomer generation is 'redistributed' to the GenX/Y and Millennial generations for the "Good of Society"? How's that sound for 'fair'? Once that is done we can shovel a helpless generation of aged Babyboomers into "Daycare" Centers just as they did their children. These "Daycare" centers will also come with classrooms where Babyboomers can sit at assigned desks and listen to a Public Servant tell them what they should think and then test them on their ability to regurgitate these facts.

How's that sound? Oh, and yes, this will include many of those in the top 15%.

 

Automation does not have to collapse any economy

Its a matter of imagination , by the company and employees

As I said before

Have the employees buy the technology instead of the company

It would save the the company(s) millions of dollars

The employee would be responsible for the up keep( maintenance ) , programming and keeping pace with new technologies and software

Lets face it , technology in manufacturing is where its at

Both the employees and the company can work out a deal , that would both produce jobs and save the company huge dollars