COP24 - Global catastrophe - climate change

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by Quantum Quack, Dec 3, 2018.

  1. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    15,813
    A tad, but not a huge amount. Plenty of signals are couched in lots of noise. We have gotten good at recovering the signal.
     
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  3. Jeeves Valued Senior Member

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    Mars probably did.
     
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  5. Write4U Valued Senior Member

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    The law of Chaos, that in a very complex system a small variation can result in major changes.
    " The domino effect and the exponential butterfly effect". At a global level this becomes really scary....

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  7. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    28,952
    Yep.
    Antarctica got a lot of attention, in the research - at least, until recent political developments in the US.
    The pros have been measuring and theorizing and so forth - the latest findings seem to indicate that the IPCC consensus has - as usual - underestimated the risks: https://e360.yale.edu/features/polar-warning-even-antarctica-coldest-region-is-starting-to-melt
    https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1095
    And so has the Southern Pacific Ocean, more recently (hard to study before the invention of suitable instruments - very rough ocean). That has led to the finding (recent Science magazine paper) that the Souther Ocean is less of a carbon sink than hoped and expected, and worse appears to be changing into a carbon source under the influence of AGW - a positive feedback nobody had anticipated, which will warm specifically the ocean water eroding the Antarctic glaciers.

    So the estimates of the strength of AGW - its effects, and risks - are once again being revised upward.
     
  8. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    28,952
    As predicted by a weakening of the polar vortex - Homer, Alaska, with its polar cold moving south, had a warm and wet winter -

    and which may also have left India isolated from polar contributions this time of year, or maybe it was just the continuation of the AGW warming south of the mountains:
    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145167/heatwave-in-india

    The "G" in AGW stands for "Global".
     
  9. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    To the best of my knowledge------------no.
     
  10. dumbest man on earth Real Eyes Realize Real Lies Valued Senior Member

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    2,901
    Vaguely remember reading somewhere that for the first couple a Billion years or so that there was NO Liquid water on Earth to be able to freeze to form Ice.
    Then around a 2 to 2.5 Billion years ago, that the Earth was completely covered with Ice. Like a Huge Snowball.
    Don't have time to look all that up, so very well could be wrong(as usual!!).
    Do a search for "Snowball Earth" or maybe even "start Ice Age".
    Or, just hang around, someone will surely come along soon with 'gooder info'.
     
  11. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    6,058
    A sample of pillow basalt (a type of rock formed during an underwater eruption) was recovered from the Isua Greenstone Belt and provides evidence that water existed on Earth 3.8 billion years ago. In the Nuvvuagittuq Greenstone Belt, Quebec, Canada, rocks dated at 3.8 billion years old by one study and 4.28 billion years old by another show evidence of the presence of water at these ages.
    some scientist think that the earth had liquid water before the collision that created the moon 4.5 billion years ago
     
  12. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    15,813
    There has almost always been liquid water. There may have been a short time after the Earth was formed and the surface was molten where all the water was steam, but as soon as the surface cooled to about 300C (which happened within 100 million years or so) then liquid water appeared.
     
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  13. dumbest man on earth Real Eyes Realize Real Lies Valued Senior Member

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    2,901
    Obviously I erred !, Like I said, very well could be wrong(as usual!!). Maybe it was No Ice Caps or Ice Age until 2 billion years ago?

    Thank You, billvon.
    Appreciate you coming along with 'gooder info'.
     
  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    20,121
    Terrible news coming in about the Himalayan Mountain region:
    20th-June-2019


    Cold War-era spy satellite images are showing scientists that glaciers on the Himalayas are now melting about twice as fast as they used to.
    The Asian mountain range, which includes Mount Everest, has been losing ice at a rate of about 1 per cent a year since 2000, according to a study published on Wednesday in the journal Science Advances.
    "The amount of ice [lost] is scary but what is much more scary is the doubling of the melt rate," said Josh Maurer, a glacier researcher at Columbia University's Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and lead author of the study.
    The Himalayas, part of an area that is referred to as the "third pole" because it has so much ice, has only 72 per cent of the ice that was there in 1975.
    It has been losing about 7.5 billion tonnes of ice a year, compared to 3.9 billion tonnes a year between 1975 and 2000, according to the study.

    src: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-20/cold-war-era-images-show-glaciers-are-melting-fast/11226838
     
  15. Bob-a-builder Registered Senior Member

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    119
    Yes. This is true despite Billvon. Liquid implies in a liquid phase. Steam would imply a gas phase of water.

    Unsure why Billvon would feel a need to correct a true statement. The heated portion of our planets lifetime from gas to solid is an era unto itself. A new era began after billions of years.

    So.. "Dumbest man on earth" has a more accurate timeline (It took billions of years for earth to form and cool enough for clouds/liquid water) and was correct in stating there was no liquid water (Steam is gas state/phase). The "Dumbest man on Earth" is smarter than Billvon on this matter its seems.




    @ conversation,

    If all the ice on Earth only covered North America it would be a Kilometer thick. It does seem to be melting quicker and quicker but unless a meteor hits it will probably give inhabited areas time to move.

    Someone armed with scientific foresight might move to a city or state that could not be submerged. I'm not suggesting all the ice would melt, but if it did it would entirely submerge Florida. So it might be prudent to not buy a condo in Florida. Entire countries would submerge. Bangladesh would vanish and United Kingdom would become an island chain.

    In your lifetime your house may be safe.. but maybe not your children's lifetime.

    I live in the great lakes region so would be immune from any rises in seawater as far as flooding goes, but weather patterns will also change as the gulf stream does, etc.

    That said. I think Florida will be with us for some time. Predictions vary on melting speeds and it would help if environment agencies were allowed to acknowledge climate change.

    Plant a few trees and maybe we can reduce some carbon from the air.. at least temporarily.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
  16. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    15,813
    Highlighted the important part of DMOE's post.
     
  17. Bob-a-builder Registered Senior Member

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    119
    Yes. He stated there was no liquid water on earth. That is 100% true. Non liquid/solid water is called "gas phase/state". I did post a Bill Nye video to explain it to you.
     
  18. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    28,952
    Short version: There's nowhere ready to move to.
    Sure, technically there will be some square acreage to stand on - but someplace to live as people live now? - not so much. It takes a long time to build soil, fill aquifers, adjust ecological niches, grow a forest, etc. There are already seven billion people walking around - the good land is spoken for, in use one way or another.
    Miami will not - not as the city we know, with a sewer system and indoor plumbing and so forth, anyway.
    You are arguing a timeline - you took, from Nye, the idea that the entire earth was too hot for any liquid water anywhere for "billions" of years. I don't know if Nye actually said that, but it's too simple - as Billvon pointed out by implication, the entire earth average does not have to get below 100C for water to condense out in some places. He posted 300C average as a likely breakover after which some places would cool below 100C. That seems reasonable, and that would likely have happened in hundreds of millions of years - "billions" is less likely. Much less likely.

    edit in: overlooked the pressure factor (see below), which means I may have misrepresented Billvon's take. Apologies, if the case. The difference between average and regional temperature on the surface of a cooling planet was the point, not "explaining" billvon, and it stands.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2019
  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    15,813
    Well, he stated there was no liquid water on earth for "the first couple a Billion years or so." Which isn't the case. During the Hadean era, when the Earth was first forming, there was a period of between 100 million and 200 million years where the surface of the Earth was too hot for liquid water to form. Once it cooled to about 300C, the first liquid water appeared - and Earth has had liquid water on its surface ever since.
     
  20. dumbest man on earth Real Eyes Realize Real Lies Valued Senior Member

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    2,901
    What I said was (with what I thought was the important part highlighted):
    billvon said that the water was a liquid at 300C. The atmospheric pressure needed to keep water in its liquid state/phase at that temperature would have been so great that NO Liquid water on Earth would have been able to freeze to form Ice.
    ...but, like I said :
    ...and :
    so...no, on sciforums, dmoe is never "more accurate", never "correct" and never "smarter" than anyone (as usual!!).

    ...and, like I said before :
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
  21. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    6,058
    oceans formed on earth within the first few hundred million years
    ....................
    ice ball earth was most likely actually slushball earth with liquid water under the ice slush
     
  22. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    20,121
    Current news
    Another record breaking heat wave affecting most of Europe.
    June 2019
    =====
    Texas Border region:
    300mm of rain in 4 hours
    Floods and damage
    1 fatality attributed so far
    =====
    and just think, next year is going to be worse... ( Most likely)
     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2019
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  23. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    3,019
    a paleoclimatologist said something to the effect
    we are looking at coming times of when there was alligators at the north pole or words to that effect
    that is estimated to be in around 100 years roughly calculating current warming.
     

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