Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Emergency vaccine approval risks public vaccine failure (including the risk of slow-developing detrimental side effects, such as vaccine-caused long term cardiovascular or brain damage mediated by the immune system, matching that caused by the virus itself) - in this political situation an essentially permanent destruction of First World contagion response, and a return to early industrial or even pre-industrial standards of public health care in the US.

We could, looking at the trends and situations in front of us, see a United States once again subject to cholera epidemics and endemic malaria. We are rolling the dice and betting the rent.

Not that the US has much choice, by now - elections had consequences.

Prediction: The Republican State administrations and legislatures and the Republican Senate will do whatever they can to block Federal vaccine distribution that focuses on the wrong kind of high risk people (such as Red tribal citizens, code "inner city" dwellers, illegal immigrants or their children), and Federal distribution that includes mandates (such as a mandatory second shot once one has received the first shot of a two-shot regimen, or mandatory vaccination for police, prison guards, social workers, public school teachers, etc).

So we now enter the latest penalty phase of pandering to "bipartisan" and "both sides" and "compromise" politicians - that is, having allowed the Overton Window to be moved yet farther toward acceptance of fascist government and its fantasy worldview. The reality based community is going to be compromising with the Republican Party, of course, but also compromising of the real world - including not only the basic principles of representative government, but simple physical fact.

If Biden faces a public demand by Republican leadership to sell off large areas of the National Park system and privatize Social Security in return for a promise of cooperation with his Covid response program, for example, will he fall for it? His record says yes. It would take a concerted effort by everyone in the reality based community to close off that option and keep his administration from getting rolled.

 

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Something to help you sleep well at night

CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/22/...F4B|MCORGID=7FF852E2556756057F000101@AdobeOrg

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Will vaccine heal the world?

 

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"Heal"? No. Vaccine's don't heal anything - they stop you getting sick in the first place.
If you are being somewhat more poetic in your question - the world was sick even before Covid came along - and so vaccinating against Covid will be unlikely to provide the world with a reason to "heal".

 

at least make economy better, less unemployment.

 

05/01/2021
England announces national lock down.

 

Can Bank of England print money for QE?

 

Queen Elisabeth .

 

quantitative easing

 

Interesting , did this printing of money this way work ?

 

Small pox has been eradicated.

 

Just because we eradicated a virus that has different properties doesn't mean that we can eradicate this wee beastie in all its various mutations. This one is more like seasonal flu, in that we'll probably have to live with it from here on out, taking our regular vaccinations (more important the older we get), and likely changing our day-to-day behaviour to try to limit it as well. Through these things (vaccine and behaviour) we will eventually get to a state where we pay it probably a similar level of attention as the common flu - slightly more because it is that much more dangerous. But I really can't see us eradicating it.

 

I agree with the thrust of what you have posted however I would like to extend it by suggesting that one of the biggest difference to the way we treat Covid 19 is that there appears to be no the seasonal cycling as seen with the typical flu.
So if you were to produce an annual vaccine when would you supply and apply it? (rhetorical)

Unfortunately this leaves only, limited options as to how to move forward.

• Eradication by lock down. (recovery and death) Effective border quarantine control.
• Vaccination on the clock ( regardless of season - as the virus is forever present and mutating. )
• Effective therapeutic treatments.

Until there is an effective response massive social and economic disruption can be expected.

I am sure you will be able to think of other variations...and I look forward to reading them...
Note:
As it stands at the moment here in Australia, the only issue we seem to have is the importation of the virus via international arrivals and a failure of "hotel"quarantine provisioning. If not for the international arrivals factor we would be effectively free of the contagion. We are still underestimating what is required to prevent importation.
New Zealand has effectively eradicated the virus as well and are much more guarded about their international arrivals.
So, eradication is very much a real strategy and possibly the only effective one. (As proven)
The problem is doing the hard yards so to speak to ensure eradication is thorough and for nations such as the UK and the USA this will be very arduous indeed.

Now that the virus appears to have mutated into "fully airborne" and reduced in active particle size the chances of eradication have diminished even more so.

 

On a more empathic note:
It is obvious from here that members of sciforums that are residing in the UK face a rather daunting and tough 2021. Certainly a lot tougher and more frightening situation than we have endured here in Australia as the latest more virulent mutation has only just now arrived and may be lucky in that we have the time to take aggressive steps to minimize it's spread. Hopefully adapting to sudden changes in personal freedom will be as accepted by Australians as it has been in the past.

Best of luck to all those members from the UK and other regions of the world that are facing an uncertain future..

 

This CoVid hasn't been around long enough to yet settle into a pattern long enough to know whether it will be a seasonal or not. At the moment we have been going through lockdowns, restricted movements, especially internationally etc. Whether the Covid19 is seasonal or not will so far have been lost in the noise of all those actions we have put in place to try to limit its spread. We will only really know the nature of the beast that we will be living with when we are living with it in whatever "normal" our day-to-day becomes. I.e. until there are no more lockdowns, no more travel restrictions, and life gets back to "normal", we won't know the steady-state of this virus - in terms of seasonal or not.

If it turns out to be seasonal then we have an example to follow in the existing "seasonal flu".
If it is not seasonal then it actually becomes easier: if we know how long a vaccine is effective for (which we will know through data of when people unfortunately catch the virus compared to when they were last vaccinated) then we know how many vaccine shots people need per year, and processes are set up to simply vaccinate people all year round. If it is one shot needed per year then we can spread the vaccinations across all 12 months rather than trying to squeeze into the period before the relevant season.

The first is simply not an option. Seriously. It mutates and spreads too quickly. As soon as health services can cope with the run-rate of infections and serious cases needing hospital treatment, societies will open up again.
The second is what pretty much every government will do: vaccinate on a regular basis, possibly moving to increasing volumes when it is at its most virulent.
The third will always be there.

There is now an effective response: vaccination. It is just a matter of ramping up the initial rollout and then putting in place a process to do so on a regular basis - as they do with seasonal flu (albeit with timings adapted to the seasonal nature).

You do know that NZ and Australia are both looking toward vaccination as the long-term strategy, right? NZ has bought enough vaccines for the entire country, and they will be free to all people.
No country can expect to live in isolation on this matter, unless they intend to maintain 14-day quarantine on all arriving passengers forever more. Which simply doesn't make sense when you rely on tourism to any great degree. When the rest of the world opens their borders and as Covid becomes "normalised", those isolated countries will start to suffer.

Vaccination is the future, just as it is with seasonal flu.

Now, if the virus didn't mutate - much as smallpox didn't mutate - then eradication would be possible. But for a mutating virus like this... it's here to stay.

The chances were gone as soon as it was released from Wuhan (or wherever it originated) and not fully contained in those first few days, and when governments were too soft (in hindsight) in their initial stances, and when it was shown that it would mutate. Subsequent mutations have simply reduced the chances from 1 in a billion chance to 1 in a billion-and-one chance of being able to eradicate it.

Sure, we could theoretically eradicate it. The same way we could eradicate every virus for which we have a vaccine.
But once we control it to a point where health systems can cope with the level of infections, kiss goodbye any incentive to do so.

 

Note:
Please read my entire post so that an over view can be gleaned before responding ( if any).

Of course there are so many unknowns but at the moment, globally, there appears to be no significant seasonal variation and also of course we do not know whether the virus will mutate again, although we could safely predict that it most likely will. We also do not know when another global pandemic with another different virus could sweep the world.

However we do know that deforestation, climate change and globalization, with it's inherent massive increase in affordable mass tourism means that just about any local Category 3 or 4 (CDC risk rating - labs) epidemic can quickly turn into a pandemic.
If a vaccination program was used in conjunction with strong social distancing measures the contagion would die off would it not?
No reproduction = End of virus
Unless you are suggesting the virus may remain dormant some how and can not be tested for...??

In societies that are naive enough to believe that they can control the exponential reproduction rate, it is inevitable that they will go from lock down to lock down until they realise that the only course is eradication with the help of vaccines etc.

In other words what I would be recommending is that the vaccine be used to aid in the eventual eradication of covid-19 and not consider the seasonal flu as a realistic comparison. ( mainly because the CFR is so high, the highly contagious nature of it and the sheer cost of running so many devoted ICU beds and ancillary services)
It is only because we believe that people will ultimately fail to exercise the restraint (especially regarding entertainment -hospitality industry) necessary to allow a lock down to be successful ( A success demonstrated in Victoria Australia recently)

Right now even though there has been no locally transmitted disease we are still required to wear masks and exercise social distancing but we know that it is relatively safe to go to a restaurant or cafe but not necessarily so for large gatherings such as sporting events and festivals etc. Schools are functioning. The health system has returned to a new normal with significant surge capacity if the need occurs.

It is worth noting that vaccination levels in 1st world nations are not 100% of the population nor are they 100% effective. If even 40% remain vulnerable at any time then the exponential growth factor will quickly over whelm medical facilities especially because the population typically becomes complacent once they are deluded into thinking they have it under control and social distancing activities reduces.

The idea of vaccine only reliance, only works for nations that have the resources to vaccinate thoroughly and continually, with a willing, proactive and compliant population. That being said much of the world's population will remain vulnerable most of the time...

Basically, the idea of multiple vaccination given in a single year on a permanent ongoing basis, even if the virologist could keep up with vaccine development is highly unlikely to succeed IMO.

The societal change that would be needed would be massive.

After watching that movie Contagion and noting the bracelets that had to be worn after vaccination I am not sure the 1st world population is ready to be permanently wearing a vaccine record on their ankles or wrists.

In places that offer subsidized health care perhaps but places where the cost of the vaccine is not subsidized like the USA it may not be.
btw:
(Rough - wholesale)
Moderna vaccine : costs about $32 USD per shot.
Pfizer vaccine: costs about $20 USD per shot.
Astra-Zeneca : costs about $2 USD per shot
Johnson and Johnson : cost about $10 USD per shot

Add in health care worker costs in delivering. Logistical costs etc

Unfortunately here in Australia, the States are focused on eradication and succeeding where as the Federal Government until recently was taking a more relaxed approach which has led to the importation of the virus for over seas.

Sure nations that do not rely on vaccines because they have successfully eradicated the virus will remain isolated from a world, a world that inevitably will have to do the hard yards of eradication any how...

Comparing the two viruses is half the problem.
1918 Spanish flu had a R0 factor of about 1.4 to 2.8
Covid -19 has an estimated R0 of about 5.7 ( As of July 2020 ) (CDC)

The current R0 for the recent UK strain is yet to be estimated but assume a 70% increase at the least.
It seems to me that eradication with the aid of a vaccine will be the only alternative in the longer term. Mainly because this prevents or at least minimizing the anticipated mutations from occurring.

The UK has been a simmering petri dish for far too long. Too much viral load over an extended time ( due to complacency) can only lead one way with this bug. It is highly likely that new more virulent strains will be seen coming out of the USA, Russia, India and Brazil as well.

We will have agree to disagree. If it stays it will continue to mutate ( most likely) possibly rendering vaccines as useless in the longer term)

Whether we like it or not, the only nations that will have a functional economy and society will be the ones who successfully eradicate the virus and maintain extreme cat 4 border quarantines.

As with climate change it is a new world order we didn't see coming (?) and one we have to adapt to as a matter of urgency.

Polio has been eradicated in most of the world (almost all of the world) and perhaps after a few years of zero new cases they can stop the vaccination routine except for those traveling to or from unknowable situations.

Given the extremes involved with Covid-19 the Health systems will never be able to fully cope ( assuming general social complacency is maintained)

How many times will the UK go into lock down before people start to realise how important it is to actually succeed in achieving what the lock down is intended to do?
That being to stop the spread and kill the virus.

 

We also don't know who will win the next World Series, and there are an infinite number of other unknown irrelencies.

Again, relevance?

There are many things that must be in our favour for a disease to be eradicated. This is why, to date, only one disease has been, despite every effort. Other diseases are pretty close, but not yet there.
One of these factors is detectability, and another is that it is only transmittable between humans. Plus the more obvious ones like speed of mutation.

Garbage. They are looking to control the reproduction rate with vaccines until they reach a manageable level (by the healthcare system) in an open society. Now, if vaccines aren't sufficient to achieve this then eradication may be the only option to strive for, assuming it is even deemed to be achievable. But most societies will likely be happy with just a manageable status quo.

If eradication is even possible, great, we can strive for it the same way we have striven to eradicate other diseases (and have a poor history of success at), but most sensible societies will first be happy with simply minimising infection rate to a manageable level, and from there working to (local) elimination, and then, if it is deemed to be worth the effort, to eradication. But societies will be fully open at the "manageable" level.

That's all good, because noone is yet vaccinated, so a single case can quickly spread and overwhelm your healthcare system. But when rates are at a level that the healthcare system can cope with, such restrictions and controls are no longer necessary (although may well still be advised, and society may well simply adopt them anyway, much like some Asian countries already had done for many years).

And here you are advocating eradication while acknowledging a limitation in 1st world nations that will make it almost impossible to achieve. Are you sure you have a coherent argument?

As is the case with seasonal flu, and as is the case with every other diseases that we have yet to eradicate. Yet here we are.

To succeed at what? Eradication? Of course it is insufficient. Which is why eradication is not really going to be possible. Because the incentive to eradicate drops massively once a society can function freely with a certain underlying infection rate.

Which is why eradication is unlikely to happen - at least not as a priority, at least not before societies fully open etc. It may become possible when rates continue to drop in the long-term, but societies will likely lack the incentive to strive for it if they can cope without needing to.

...

 

... Cont'd ...

So you offer another reason for why eradication is highly unlikely.

You're giving yet more reasons why eradication is highly unlikely.

Okay - let's be clear here: they're focussed on elimination. The eradication of a disease is a global matter, not something a single society can achieve once a disease is cross-border.
If you're unclear of the difference: try this

Even assuming you mean eliminated, no, the rest of the world won't inevitably have to do the hard yards. As stated, if the rest of the world reach a status quo that they can cope with, that's as far as they really need go. If those countries that have eliminated it want to remain so isolated, that is their choice. If they want to require quarantine and destroy their tourism industry while the rest of the world is back to open borders, that is their choice.

I'll assume you mean elimination - and elimination within any country would be great to achieve, but once a society can cope with a run-rate of infection, incentives to eliminate fully drop away. And incentives for eradication are even smaller.

Sure, and it's also quite possible that a more virulent and dominant strain isn't as dangerous. After all, the ideal for the virus is to basically become irrelevant to the humans it infects, so it can spread with impunity within a population that simply doesn't care about it.

Yep, that is quite likely. Which is why vaccines will continue to be developed that target different aspects of the virus, with testing against new mutations etc.

Utter garbage (even if meaning eliminate rather than eradicate).

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I know you desperately want to think that NZ and Australia will one day rule the global economy

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but societies will be fully open once they can cope with the caseload of the virus within that open society.

Sure we have to adapt, and we will. Just as with all things thrown in our path.

Comparing CoVid to Polio is really not all that helpful, for reasons already given.

Says who? Where is the evidence for this? We haven't really started vaccination programmes, yet you're claiming healthcare systems to never be able to cope??? If you're going to bring what seems to be nonsense to the table, at least offer some support for it.

Until such time as our healthcare system can cope with the caseload. It is hoped vaccinations will bring this down sufficiently, and herd immunity as well. At that point society will gradually open up again to ensure that the caseload remains within capability of healthcare system to cope. And ultimately society opens up fully.

 

and so too does the incentive to vaccinate and once vaccinations drop off you are back into lock down. Wash and repeat ad nauseum... (most likely outcome)
Remember COVID-19 is many times more virulent than the flu...and considerably more deadly.

However I do understand your point and time will tell whether it works out the way you anticipate.