Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Quantum Quack, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    and no city wide lock downs, establishment of quarantine zones ( Australia ) border closures or evacuations etc. Not to mention building two hospitals in 14 days or so...
    Please explain why this is happening for such an incidental virus such as this coronavirus and not for a much more deadly virus the flu?
    I am confident there is a rational explanation for such an extreme reaction by the global community.

    Also on a general note, as you have demonstrated such good skills at net research, have you come across any listing of ethnicity of those that have contracted, survived and died of this virus?
    Not Nationality but ethnicity.

    For example: do you know of any Anglo/Irish or Germanic or Nords being infected and dying?
    Another example: The Uyghurs of Northern China are not ethic Chinese.
    All my research hasn't yielded anything that shares this information and I wonder why?
    If a list was published then all these conspiracy theories about designer viruses would disappear.

    John Hopkins University Baltimore Maryland, provides one of the best data resources IMO and yet there isn't reference to ethnicity. When there probably should be.
    see:
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    They do experience updating delays

    ========
    WHO SR Sum. 10th Feb. 2020
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200210-sitrep-21-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=947679ef_2

    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
    • Globally 40 554 confirmed (3085 new)
    • China 40 235 confirmed (3073 new) 6484 severe (296 new) 909 deaths (97 new)
    • Outside of China 319 confirmed (12 new) 24 countries 1 death

    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    China Very High
    Regional Level High
    Global Level High

    =====
    An interesting set of comparative statistics:
    total confirmed cases
    11th Feb 2020
    40652
    total deaths
    910
    Total recovered
    3578

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2020
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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    17,871
    $$$$. The more fear, the more money. If you are CNN you don't make any money by leading with "8000 people in the US contract an ordinary flu!" And if you are China you don't get UN funding for that.
    14 cases in Germany
    8 cases in England
    1 in Sweden
    1 in Finland
    No it wouldn't. An enterprising journalist would write a story asking "WHY is the government looking into the ethnic background of virus victims? See? This is PROOF that they are targeting ethnicities!" And that would sell a lot of papers.

    It's clear that you are very worried about this virus. Best things you can do are:

    1) Keep up with your vaccinations (including flu)
    2) Wash your hands
    3) Eat a balanced diet and get regular exercise
    4) Go to your primary care doctor if you get very sick
     
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  5. Bells Staff Member

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    23,362
    Lessons learned from the various other outbreaks in previous years.

    And it is new.

    Because it is new. Because past complacency saw deaths. Because, once again, it is new. They want to keep it contained. Previous virus' spread quickly because they did not have quarantine measures in place.

    I'll put it into perspective for you..

    While the new coronavirus ravages much of China and world leaders rush to close their borders to protect citizens from the outbreak, the flu has quietly killed 10,000 in the U.S. so far this influenza season.

    At least 19 million people have come down with the flu in the U.S. with 180,000 ending up in the hospital, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The flu season, which started in September and can run until May, is currently at its peak and poses a greater health threat to the U.S. than the new coronavirus, physicians say
    .​

    I never said the 'common flu' was actually more deadly. I said it kills more people. Coronavirus may be more deadly than the flu (currently less deadly than SARS), but it is new. Media focus has been immense.

    If people took even remotely similar stances against the common flu, as we might call it, the death rate would be much lower. But people are stupid and complacent. They focus on what's new and shiny while ignoring what is common, when they are more likely to die to the common than what is new.

    Understand now?

    What we do not need is people going into panics, and posting conspiracy laden rubbish like you tried to pass off as fact in this thread.

    Ya. It's new.

    Yes. Google is hard.

    Frankly, I don't even know why this matters.

    The virus originated in a wet market in Wuhan, China, which has a population of what? 11 million people. It stands to reason that the majority who have it will be Chinese.

    Secondly, a cruise ship in Japan currently (with a chunk of Australians on it having a holiday) has seen the virus spread through the ship with latest reports suggesting 1 in 3 infected. Do you think everyone on that ship is Chinese? I am pretty sure that they are not. In fact, I am certain they are not. For example, I doubt Rebecca Frasure (US citizen, currently in an isolation ward in a Japanese hospital after she was taken off that cruise ship when she tested positive for the virus) is Chinese.

    Thirdly, there are reported cases of people in other countries contracting the virus after contact with those who have it. The virus does not rely on ethnicity or race.

    And finally, Wuhan and China is struggling coping with this outbreak. It stands to reason that there will be more deaths there given the current conditions and a system that is not geared to cope with so many sick people at once.

    I have a few suggestions as to why. None that I can list as they would classify as a personal insult.

    List of what?

    "Ethnicity" of people who have caught it?

    Why does this matter? It's a virus. Anyone can catch it if they are exposed to it.

    Are you asking if you are at less risk because you are a white?

    Only if you are xenophobic.

    It's a virus. Anyone is at risk if they become exposed to it. Including you. Your Anglo-Saxon heritage means diddly squat.

    If you want to reduce your chance of contracting it (which is low already), wash your hands. Keep healthy. As Billvon advised, eat healthy and get exercise. If you get sick, don't go out and about. Continue to eat healthy and drink lots of fluids. Contact your doctor if your symptoms worsen. You know, like normal people do when they get the flu.

    Yep.

    Now go and wash your hands.
     
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  7. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    22,413
    are you sure?

    The evidence available suggests other wise...

    I do not have Anglo Saxon heritage btw... Celt and Germanic more likely.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  8. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    22,413
    Reports of the virus being air borne by Chinese authorities came in a few days ago ( possible mutation)... yet to be confirmed.
    One link among many:
    re: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/conflic...ial-reportedly-claims-coronavirus-is-airborne
    So just washing your hands would be insufficient alone...if this were to be confirmed and so would many currently in place quarantine protocols...
    Personally I think this is going to be proved incorrect as we would be seeing a massive surge in illness in China and Globally and we apparently are not.
    The 14 day incubation period may have something to do with it assuming that the incubation period still holds for the mutation if any.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    17,871
    Given that people all over the world are being infected - no, it does not. Take a look at this woman and tell me how "ethnic Chinese" she is:
    https://www.kptv.com/news/forest-gr...cle_714c3006-4c06-11ea-8b43-1f058aae4966.html
    No, it's not a mutation. That's how it works, the same way most such viruses work. From the CDC a week ago:
    "Person-to-person spread is thought to occur mainly via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory pathogens spread. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs."
    It will do far more than anything else you can do. Again from the CDC:

    "Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands."
    "Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing."
     
  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    Finally we have an image of someone possibly other than 100% ethnic Chinese contracting this illness...thanks... it is help full....
    Out of respect to the persons concerned I will not post the images provided by your link.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  11. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    Perhaps you don't know about the difference between "direct/contact"and "aerosol" transmission...?
    From the link I quoted (10th-02--2020):
    Authorities previously believed the coronavirus could only be passed on through two ways; direct or contact transmission.
    Direct transmission occurs when an individual breathes in the air of an infected patient, while contact transmission requires one to touch an object carrying the virus and then touch their own mouth, nose or eyes.
    But The China Daily has reported Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun as confirming the coronavirus can be spread through the air.

    src: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/conflic...ial-reportedly-claims-coronavirus-is-airborne

    As no doubt you are aware the Chinese Government is notorious for it's censorship of bad news.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  12. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    17,871
    Aerosols are airborne. The Chinese were previously saying it could only be spread by direct contact. Now they are changing their story to align with the CDC.

    =============
    Zeng Qun, the deputy head of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau, told a press briefing on Saturday that the virus can be spread via direct transmission, which involves contact with the infected person. However, the China Daily newspaper reported Zeng also suggested the new member of the large coronavirus family—which includes infections like the common cold as well as SARS—is capable of aerosol transmission.

    At a briefing held by the municipal government on the bug which has killed over 900 people, Zeng said: "Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which causes infection after inhalation, according to medical experts."

    As such, these types of diseases can linger in the air for long periods of time. Only a few diseases spread this way, including tuberculosis and measles.

    https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-could-airborne-chinese-official-claims-1486493
    ============

    Note that aerosol transmission is also called droplet transmission. That is fairly common because viruses normally live in things like sputum which are aerosolized by patients.
     
  13. Bells Staff Member

    Messages:
    23,362
    And yet, there is plenty of evidence and fact that shows it's not just ethnic Chinese who have come down with it.

    Your xenophobic streak is showing.

    You will do more good washing your hands than prattling like a xenophobic white man spreading ridiculous scaremongering conspiracies on an online forum.

    I provided you with various links that shows the spread and non Chinese people people who have come down with it. Clicking links is hard, much like google I suppose.

    I recommend you wash your hands, close your eyes and hold your breath then. [/sarc]

    Perhaps you should read up on what spread through the air actually means before you accuse others with medical training of not understanding what "aerosol transmission" is.
     
  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    and if the virus is able to be transmitted airborne, how would that impact on the existing quarantine set up in China and around the world?
     
  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    so nasty it is not worth replying...
     
  16. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    17,871
    Then you would have to treat it like . . . influenza. O the horror.
     
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    My main personal concern is that I have a number of ethnic Chinese friends living in Singapore...where the majority is ethnic Chinese.
    I also do a lot of online gaming with Ethnic Chinese. So no, I have no xenophobic issues.
    So it is not me being xenophobic Bells it is you that is.
     
  18. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    and so how would that impact on the current quarantine protocols in place.
    I do not need to have medical training to know that the existing Q regime would be totally ineffective.
    Imagine what would have happened a few years ago in Africa if the Ebola Virus had become airborne?!!
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  19. Bells Staff Member

    Messages:
    23,362
    It will be treated like the flu.

    I don't think you quite understand what xenophobic means.

    The repeated comments you have made about how it is just ethnic Chinese and the ridiculous scaremongering conspiracy rubbish you have been posting is xenophobic and frankly uneducated and deeply ill-informed.

    The same that would occur if "current quarantine protocols" were put in place each flu season.

    And?

    It will go like the others before it, until a vaccine is created.

    Bad comparison. Ebola is much more deadly.
     
  20. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    Just because a race is identified does not make it xenophobic.
    or perhaps you can explain how it does so?
    Are you afraid that it might inspire xenophobia in others and if so what place does that fear have on a science forum?

    Does saying I have Chinese friends make me a racist or xenophobic simply because I mention race?
    Perhaps the best times of my life were spent in locations other than Australia. Singapore counts as being one of the best. I got to meet life long pen pals, pals since grade 4 primary school. Does that make me a racists because those pals were ethnic Chinese?
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  21. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    are you saying that the current quarantine of an entire nation from the rest of the world will be insufficient and that the spread of this bug will be comprehensively global?

    Perhaps you could offer a rational as to why it isn't currently indicating such?
    It started around the 12th of December 2019. It is now Feb 2020. Approximately 60 days has passed.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  22. Bells Staff Member

    Messages:
    23,362
    It is when you bring up race with the rest of the scaremongering crap you spouted in this thread, along with various conspiracy theories and ridiculous claims you are still to back up with any evidence.

    No. I am fed up with people posting conspiracy theories and declaring they are factual and then making ridiculous arguments and basically scaremongering with a basis in xenophobia..

    When you make such a statement after not so subtle suggestions that only Chinese people have it and demanding evidence that non-Chinese people also have it.. And then declaring 'I have Chinese friends'..

    It's the equivalent of 'I have black friends' after various bigoted and racist statements..

    Please stop.

    Only if you cannot read and comprehend.

    Read what I said slowly...

    Yes. It's a newly discovered virus.

    At some point the infection rates will peak and then start to slow down.

    If you get the flu, you are advised to stay home and rest and seek treatment if your symptoms worsen. The same thing is applying here.

    It has already spread around the world, due to travel, and whatnot.

    Rest of the world is looking to contain it as best they can and reduce the spread, as is China.

    In a few weeks, those travel restrictions will ease. The Chinese Government has already reduced their restrictions.
     
  23. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,413
    Here is good article from the ABC today...
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...-in-australia-the-different-diseases/11950358

    Key points.
    • Coronavirus experts said there were still many unknowns, with China "swamped" with coronavirus cases
    • The virus is understood to be more contagious than SARS, with about 20-25 per cent of cases considered "severe"
    • Experts believe the true test of the virus's spread will come when the travel bans out of China are lifted
    And
    "[At the moment] the Chinese authorities can't even rely on the numbers being calculated in China," Dr Mackay said. "Their hospitals have been inundated.

    "And without really good numbers and data we can't be sure [of anything]."
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020

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