Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Then you have merely reduced the speed of propagation, not stopped it. Which is what I said three posts above.

 

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are so the Virus will go dormant?
I thought it was a viral propagate or die proposition... perhaps you are correct.

 

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No. The virus will continue to spread by all the people out and about doing "exercise and shopping." It will just spread more slowly.

 

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so you do deliveries only use maximum quarantine methods. Still not imprisoned.
If people are stupid enough to breech social distancing requirements then we should send them to the USA..... lol

Sure, the stupid people will get infected and be either recovered or dead with in 30 days. ( that's the cleaning up phase I mentioned...) At least the smart ones will be alive and the bug is dead.

 

Maximum quarantine methods in BSL 4 labs by trained professionals can prevent infection. Josh from Amazon isn't going to be able to meet those standards. He's going to sneeze on a package, or forget to wipe his shoes or wash his hands. That's why you only slow down, not stop, the spread of the disease with quarantining.

Not everyone is as brilliant, as disciplined or as meticulous as you. Even in Australia.

OK. We let all the stupid, old and careless people get sick. Then they infect the smart people like you. And we are back to a pandemic.

 

if done properly you can get the transmission rate down to zero... China managed to do it, but has restarted it's economy too soon IMO. It couldn't wait, and now they have transmission which they claim is only imported but most likely it is both local and imported.
Again underestimating the issue by restarting their economy and opening it's borders with out proper testing... so stupid don't you think?

oh btw I just heard on the TV that the test kits China has donated to Italy have only a 30% accuracy rate... so WTF?

 

Firstly it is not my idea, secondly why do good ideas piss you off?

Ad hom.
If Josh isn't wearing a mask he should be sacked any how...
You'd be a fool not to sanitize everything entering your home. Including boxes of groceries etc... Just put them aside for 7-9 days and they clean them selves mostly.
Remove plastic food packaging as if infected on the outside, use gloves, then sanitize gloves etc... it's not that hard, especially if your life depends on it...
Store canned food for 7 day or soak in disinfectant...whatever ...just kill the bugs..

 

The Ruby Princess cruise ship catastrophe = 167 cases.. Due to underestimating the situation. Passengers were allowed to disembark with out isolation period or even health dept presence and even with a number of passengers with flu like symptoms.
They since traveled to nearly all states and now we have 167 extra cases.
Underestimating the gravity of the problem has killed so many globally so far...and will continue to do so...

 

Exactly.

 

By the time climate change forces you into a hermetically sealed bubble the last thing you are going to be worrying about is avoiding a contagion with out proper containment protocols.

 

Hibernation of most businesses and rentals

 

You've done a great job Australia and you've got to keep doing it. Just hibernate your businesses. Thank you and God Bless Australia.

 

I do wish we could hear more about how scientists are working to find a cure etc and how researchers are being given plenty of funding and resources. There was something the other day about a break through but that news has gone silent..
Alex

 

The Financial Times had a long article on that today. There are already trials of various antivirals, some developed for HIV, others for Ebola and of course chloroquine and its derivatives. What all these do is slow down the progress of the disease in an already infected patient, rather than preventing people catching it or "curing" those infected. But nonetheless valuable, as they can prevent sufferers getting to the stage at which they need a hospital ICU and a ventilator, which is where the choke point in the health services is. There is also work on using plasma from people who have already had the disease, to isolate preparations of antibodies.

One other interesting thing is that Italian doctors have been passing on their hot tips to their colleagues in the UK. Amongst these is the finding that for patients requiring ventilation, you generally do not need the full procedure of putting them into a coma and intubating them, so that the ventilator takes over the whole breathing function. There is a much cheaper and simpler kind of ventilator, which simply assists the patient's own breathing, which can do the job. This has the great advantage that it does not require an anaesthetist, or nearly as much supervision by specialist people, all of whom are in increasingly short supply due to having to self-isolate after suspected infection with the virus themselves. (The consultant I heard interviewed about this was full of respect for his Italian colleagues, who he says are putting in hours of extra work, after punishing shifts in hospital, to analyse all this kind of stuff, write it up, translate it and pass it on to the British doctors.)

The impression I get is that people are learning fast.

 

I suppose my point is our leader could include in his address updates on the progress of research etc.
Certainly I like to hear about them shutting borders and providing money but something giving hope that victory is being worked on...something by way of up dates...I mean how nice if your post came from our pm.
Alex

 

Just out of curiosity - how are they establishing "accuracy"? 'Cos just telling everyone that they don't have the virus will currently give you a very high% for giving the correct result. Even just randomly saying "positive" or "negative" will give you a 50% correct rate.

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No, you can't. You can REDUCE the transmission rate.

No, they didn't. Watch the daily new cases number. It was always going up for China - just more slowly.

Even the best tests aren't very accurate. False negatives are common because they are difficult to administer correctly.

 

Bad ideas annoy me, especially when they are implemented and make the problem worse.

Josh is wearing a mask. He also pulls it down to scratch his nose occasionally, because the mask makes his nose itchy.

Again, great. Some people don't have 7-9 days of food. Some people don't know how to disinfect.

You're basically saying "if everyone was smart this wouldn't spread as fast!" Yes, that's true - and somewhat useless information.

 

The question in the US is whether any lessons will be learned by white American rightwing men - even enough to bring us out of chaos in a year and a half only.

The lessons were learned only by lefties, last time we had public health chaos. That's not enough, obviously (the most recent round of Republicans - with the support of the American media and public - dismantled the pandemic response team as soon as they could, defunded the emergency response agencies, and blocked all attempts to improve the US public health system or increase its capabilities).

How many actually dead people will it take to get anyone except a fringe lefty to learn anything from the latest Republican bedshitting? A million or so wasn't enough in Iraq, but those were mainly nonwhite foreigners. Maybe a half million white Americans will be enough of a jolt - maybe a few graves dug and filled with bulldozers, one headstone with a few dozen names? Maybe a few suburban upper class hospitals pitching Red Cross tents with generator powered cold storage of corpses in the parking lot, so the relatives can pick them up without navigating hallways crowded with cots and IV drips?

One of the lessons not learned from the Iraq War chaos, for example, was about secret private contracting and lobbying and bribery of Executive Branch officials in matters of ordinary citizen's health (recall body armor and brain injury and PTSD and repeated deployment and torture interrogation and mental health and 9/11 or oil fire toxin exposure and oil spill dispersant and FEMA preparedness and private prison abuse and yadda yadda yadda ).

Instead of lesson learned, we see Trump's administration saturated with that same issue of corruption and secret dealings - to the point that nobody and no place in the entire country has been able to either obtain or make for itself hospital beds, Covid tests, masks, or ventilators, despite more than three months notice and large capacity ready to hand both domestically and in foreign trade. It has been soldier's body armor, military ammunition, Katrina response materials, working fighter plane design and construction, rodent infestation of Veteran's hospitals, medical gear held hostage for price, and so forth, all over again. Once again we have high level White House officials with large and largely secret financial and political interests at stake making public health contracting decisions for the entire country, enriching or empowering themselves at great public cost in misery and expense.

And more than half the country approves of how they are doing their jobs. That is not an indication of anyone learning anything.

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/biden-trump-wrong-about-who-coronavirus-tests/

The US also has choke points upstream - in admissions, paying for care, availability of such drugs, etc.

Trivia item: apparently, by anecdote but at least somewhat vetted, the first US teenager to die of this virus died in part because he lacked health insurance - the story is that he delayed care from fear of the expense, finally when desperate (and after having exposed more people) he was turned away from the first facility his increasingly severe symptoms caused him to approach, and died on the way to another.
That narrative may be false or exaggerated, but it's not impossible or even unlikely in the US. That or something similar is a fairly common way to die in the US from any disease (the delay in first care visit, from fear of the expense, being the common denominator).

The German test (the one WHO has been handing out since January, which was available to the US to copy at will or even request as a charity) is apparently pretty accurate, and biased against false negatives. A scan of the internet and media seems to show - unless I am screwing up somehow - that almost everyone who is downplaying the usefulness of the tests Americans cannot obtain is using the Chinese test as representative of "tests" - that is the source of such redflag numbers as "32%" and "47%" rates of "error", and that is misleading in the extreme. The Chinese test has high false positive and false negative rates both - simultaneously - which marks it as a miserable and unreliable test for mass screening or a large population of the lightly infected. But the German test performs far better, apparently, and that is the one the US had available three months ago to either accept as charity, buy, or copy at will.

In addition, since it is relatively cheap and fast while being biased against false negatives, the US could have used protocols with the German test that reduce its downside considerably - such as quarantining without otherwise treating or drugging those who have two positive tests but no symptoms, double testing those with clear symptoms but negative first results, and so forth.

And of course copying and (properly, competently) using the German test as a stopgap (while developing our own, presumably better, test) would almost certainly have saved many lives and quite a bit of misery in the US, including much we haven't suffered yet but certainly will. That is worth remembering.

But anyone looking to the internet or major media for information is going to run into a lot of this, instead: https://www.breitbart.com/health/20...sting-kits-because-of-48-false-negative-rate/
The term for that is "bullshit". It's not wrong, it's not right, it's manipulative and harmful. And it is the dominant storyline out there.

To highlight: The official Presidential claim that the US rejected use of foreign tests because they were "bad", had 30 - 50 % "error" rates, or the like, is a lie.
This article, although shallow and sketchy, is not a lie: https://www.dcreport.org/2020/03/16/how-the-kushner-family-is-cashing-in-on-covid-19/