Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Quantum Quack, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. river

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    So your saying that the virus is being controlled .
     
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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Not at all.
     
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  5. river

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    In your post #1660

    You suggest that it is .
     
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  7. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    No I don't.

    Not sure what you've got going on up there in your brain, but since I don't even know what it is, I will let you figure it out.
     
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  8. river

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    Just going with your November election , and of the virus down slide , that's all . Your connection between the two .

    You brought it up billvon not me .
     
  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    You are nuts.
     
  10. river

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    Then what did you mean ?
     
  11. zgmc Registered Senior Member

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    Maybe that a herd immunity should be built up by then?
     
  12. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  13. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    Well, I suppose this decline is partly contingent upon when the second wave manifests--and whether or not it is more or less virulent than the first.

    And on the matter of decline: I'm not at all surprised that the White House was almost exclusively reliant upon UW's IHME modeling, being as it was far the most optimistic one out there--that is, until it's dramatic revision earlier this week--but I am somewhat surprised that both Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx seemed also to be very much invested in it's projections. Sure, mathematically it was a nice looking model, I suppose, but it consistently projected a rate of declining daily deaths that mirrored the incline. Moreover, the modeling was informed largely by the number of new cases confirmed daily, when it's hardly a secret that, given our woeful lack of testing capabilities, that number was for all practical purposes almost wholly meaningless--I mean, to date we've only tested 7-odd million out of 350-plus million.

    Last week, the CDC even dropped the IHME model from their aggregator, given it's inadequacy--though, since it's most recent revision, they've put it back up.
     
  14. wegs Matter and Pixie Dust Valued Senior Member

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    Meanwhile...in GA...you know, the state that opened up earlier than other states? They’ve had 1000 new cases in the last 24 hours.

    Fights and riots over protests to wear masks. It’s just insane. What is the big deal about wearing a mask???
     
  15. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Right. But I have not seen any models that predict peaks after August (and that's worst case.)

    So by November cases will be declining and Trump will claim "mission accomplished."
     
  16. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Some people see it as a sign of weakness. "Surrender masks" "I'm not a coward" etc. Others are worried about their appearance (Trump, Pence.)
     
  17. wegs Matter and Pixie Dust Valued Senior Member

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    They act like they’re being drafted into war. Get a grip. Our country lacks solidarity and that’s why our death rate is so high. And when they see mixed messaging coming from the WH, it’s no wonder we find ourselves divided. Leave it to Americans to politicize a deadly disease.
     
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  18. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    Assuming it will, heh, miraculously subside during the warmer months of summer, when will it be most apt to rear it's ugly head again? Can we reasonably assume that it will, roughly, correlate with common flu trajectories, or do we simply not have enough data yet to speculate upon that?

    And, from what I can tell, Trump already seems to be declaring "mission accomplished," even with the daily death rates still on a slow but steady rise.
     
  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    The funny thing is that there was a time when we WERE drafted into wars. And even more went willingly, to fight and die to protect Americans.

    Today we have "patriots" who can't go two months without a haircut. Then they are storming the capital with weapons to demand their 'rights.'
     
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  20. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    were those models assuming a consistent nation wide lock down?
    ...and a rational POTUS and White House administration?
     
  21. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    As a mischling and an epileptic I've got some license here, but even Hitler could properly rile and unify his base (and I'll refrain from commenting on their vegetarianism and proto-eco sentiments). And Mussolini, Gentile, Franco, as flawed as they were...

    Somehow Trump, as appalling as he is in every other respect, also has managed to be the worst fascist ever--who, literally, prioritizes the camps/factory farms over testing, contact tracing, PPE, and so forth. Unfuckingbelievable.
     
  22. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Nope. The simpler models show the peak occurring April 15th, assuming a constant lockdown. The more realistic models show second (and sometimes third) peaks. The one I am thinking of shows a large peak in August, with a smaller peak later in the year. The assumption there is by Aug more than 50% of the population will have been infected, so a large peak is unlikely after that.
     
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  23. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    And that there is a rational POTUS and administration...and state governors...

    and that people don't get reinfected after recovering...
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2020

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