"... Investments in new capacity are still sufficient to compensate production decline in peaked fields in OPEC. Another way to tabulate this is through total OPEC production capacity, calculated by adding estimated spare capacity on top of monthly production. Using EIA figures this gives the following annual increase in OPEC total production capacity and year on year changes:
OPEC Capacity in ...2002 … 2003 … 2004 … 2005 …2006 … 2007 …2008 … 2009*
Total million b/d …31.42 …32.55…. 34.54… 35.97.. 36.20 …36.50 ..37.23 …37.51
YoY change: …….....…………1130 ….1985 …..1430 …..235 …..294 .….733…… 280
*From January to October 2009
The slow down from 2005 appears remarkable, but I would argue that spare capacity figures from 2002 to 2005 are incorrect, because the increase in production was caused by turning on the taps at existing fields. As new investments mainly compensated declining production, actual spare capacity was much higher, and net capacity additions from new fields was in a similar range as from 2005 to present. In the coming years to 2012 higher additions to OPEC capacity are to be expected, based on current projects, in comparison to increases between 2004 and 2008. Hence if decline continue at the same rate as before, OPEC capacity will increase significantly. If at the same time demand increases only at a sluggish rate, a glut of capacity lasting beyond a couple of years occurs, driving down oil prices to near OPEC production cost levels. The end result may be that we
hit peak oil production capacity somewhere early to mid next decade* because of ensuing underinvestment, but that the effects will only become apparent several years after capacity peak due to low economic growth. ..."
From: Oil Watch Nov 2009, a monthly free report. Get it via
www.theoildrum.com
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* This ~2015 "OPEC peak oil" is assuming that the US & EU economies recover and demand for oil is increasing; However, If my prediction that US and EU are in deep depression by Halloween 2014 is correct then OPEC peak oil will not occur before 2020 at the earliest. As production from the deep off shore field will be much more expensive, they will not be producing much until after the cheap Mid East oil is well past "Peak Oil."
This is why I sold my shares of PetroBras about a year ago, at near the all time peak. In the first months after the size of Brazil's "pre-salt" deposit was recognized, with some wild estimates on the high side ("greater than the Saudi fields"), I sold out as I understood how costly it would be to produce.
One problem that is now being experienced in the intitial explorator wells is that the oil is very hot and it has considerable wax content. When it enters the ocean transit pipe on it way to the surface, it loses heat to the ocean water and wax solidifies on the inner walls of the pipe. Another is that the CO2 content is at least twice normal - They may not be alowed to just vent it. That will add to the production cost.
