Evolutionary algorithm could be used to predict oil price rises

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Plazma Inferno!, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. Plazma Inferno! Ding Ding Ding Ding Administrator

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    4,610
    Future fluctuations in oil prices could be forecast using a combination of previous statistics and complex computer algorithms, according to new research.
    Academics from the Gulf University for Science and Technology and Plymouth University used a range of programmed models to accurately predict previous rises and falls in the commodity's value over a period from January 1986 to June 2012.
    They discovered that when provided with several years of data, a gene expression programming (GEP) model almost perfectly predicted subsequent years' figures, outperforming traditional statistical techniques.
    It is also more accurate than other artificial neural network (NN) models, and the widely-used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) system.

    http://phys.org/news/2016-03-evolutionary-algorithm-oil-price.html

    Paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315004101
     
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  3. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    It nowhere builds in an expectation of rational decision making.
     
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