My take on A possible war in the straits on Taiwan A war against the Taiwanese would be a major investment of resources and personal for the Chinese. But the Chinese are at least in terms of morale ready, the Chinese have repeatedly said they would support a sustained war against Taiwan: There simply no denying that the Chinese are ready to go, but are the Americans? According to Time magazine a mere 51% of Americans support a war. Surely the support will go up because Americans are innately confident in their armed forces. Americans have the psychology of a child who has never been denied candy. When that candy is finally denied the child simply doesn’t know how to react. This will happen if and when that carrier is destroyed. Through my examples, and the lack of rebuttal from other posters shows that the Chinese don’t need a American force to beat a American force. The same asinine logic was applied to the Vietnam War in the 60’s. The American forces were just too technologically superior to the Vietnamese. But by 1973 the outcome was clear to all. Why did the US lose in Vietnam? There are many factors, but one was the way the Vietnamese fought. Americans are trained to fight against conventional armies, and navies. Principally Soviet/East European in nature, they don’t train or they don’t train enough to combat the real enemies that they face. Stokes is a good example of a man who thinks like a boy. He shows this by not being able to refute what I am saying, and is basing his refutation of my points in mere belief that the carriers will not be destroyed. This is not unique to Stokes this is a common trait among indoctrinated people all over the world. They intrinsically deny the mere possibility that they could win to such inferior forces. But if China is known for one thing it is playing the weak card strong. The Chinese know that they are dealing with a technologically powerful military machine, that is the CVBG. Why would China in turn give the CVBG the battle it wants? Remember the role of the CVBG, that is one of a open ocean battle against large forces of the opposing sides largest and best naval assets. This is shown by Stokes in his inaccurate summation of a battle. Why would China send these obviously inferior assets into the sea against the carriers? These subs would have to go deep in the strait to do their damage, and the large Chinese surface fleet i.e. Sovremennys are not numerous and are tactically weak against a CVBG without the rest of the assets of the Soviet navy. Rather the Chinese recognize that they stand no chance against the Americans in this Armada battle. Look to history ppl let’s not be ignorant. The Spanish Armada that sailed to England was defeated by small and fast firing weaponry. Who in 1588 would have doubted a successful Spanish invasion of England? But it happened, the Spanish lost. Even though the Spanish had the larger force, alas the American CVBG. Also notice that the British did not leave their territorial waters, and remained safely within Britain, luring the Spanish into the trap that is the home field advantage. Same logic can be applied to the up coming battle for Taiwan against a feasible American force. The Chinese have 79 Osa class ships (hundreds of other such ships but I will use the Osa). The Chinese would logically not put these ships into the open straits if the carriers are there. I have already explained how the Chinese could get rid of a carrier. The Americans will be hard pressed to get rid of these boats. First reason is that these boats are small, the size of fishing trawlers, and near heavily trafficked commercial ports, it would not be easy for the American pilots to attack the Chinese boats. Especially if there are 79 of such boats, along with untold amounts of civilian boats, the task would be daunting. Another thing is that the Chinese have literally thousands of J-6 fighters, which was inferior to anything the Americans or Taiwanese have. But if they are approaching the American CVBG en masse 50+ craft, the chances are that some will get through. Of course these will not be flying above 300 ft (were radar becomes effective). These will be harder to shoot down with missiles, and dog fights will ensue. Many of the J-6 (I would say 30-40) will be destroyed, either by BVR missiles to Standard missiles on the Aegis class ships (which is a dangerous gamble on resources). This largely wasteful attack by Chinese forces will waste Americans resources like missiles, and fuel. These waves will continue, and should continue to degrade American power at sea. Then eventually if the en masse attack by the Osa ships somehow fail, advanced Chinese fighters like the SU-30 MK, with Moskits would almost surely get rid of the carrier. China is not going to get rid of her most valuable and expensive forces against the carrier, that is what the US wants her to do. The loss of an American carrier will scare the US, bravado is a funny thing. The other carrier in the region will move farther away to avoid the same fate of the other carrier. Simple logic deducts as such. But that would mean that the actual aircraft on board will have less of an impact on the larger battle at hand. The US military itself supports this thesis; she has lost twice against a hypothetical Chinese enemy. T The problem China faces is not really the carrier, that to me is a issue that can be dealt with. What the issue is what can the Chinese do in terms of an amphibious assault? The Chinese don’t have the actual capability to land men on Taiwan en masse. If the ROC/USN forces want to win against China, that is the moment to do it. The weak thrust by the Chinese against the Island is the moment in which China could lose the whole thing. The US moving into the straits as many have said here is not logical. The Chinese amphibious fleet is as good as those that landed on Normandy beach in WWII. Admittedly the Chinese are making new amphibious ships but still are insufficient to meet the rigors of the Taiwanese invasion. If China really wanted to win in an amphibious invasion they would need something en par to the Tarawa/Wasp class ships. Neither China nor Russia has that capability as of today. The Best China can hope for is a variant of the Russian Ivan Rogov amphibious landing craft. China needs herself a carrier in order to secure the straits for the invasion. Air support will be integral to any successful invasion. Another chief concern of mine is the experience, and training of Chinese pilots. I have no doubt that American pilots are not only experienced, but very well trained. This is the US’ greatest single asset that the Chinese lack. Of course we have to ask ourselves is will the Americans support the Taiwanese within the next decade? I opt for no, due to the fact by the end of this decade Taiwan will not exist anymore. Simply put Taiwan’s largest export market is China, and only growing. Simple economics will usurp all military hawks, and maybe that’s a good thing.