Global Population Predictions

Discussion in 'World Events' started by geordief, Jul 15, 2020.

  1. geordief Valued Senior Member

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    "Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born" https://www.bbc.com/news/health-5340952 1

    They are dropping very sharply and in ways that would change the way the world looks.

    I wonder how good this research is.

    Pity us poor pensioners

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  3. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Well pity the pensioners of the next generation, anyway. It looks as if society will be a lot older and people will have to work longer before they retire.

    But look on the bright side: if SARS-CoV-2 really is a "boomer remover", as they call it at my son's school, maybe it will cull us oldies and restore the balance in the population.

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  5. geordief Valued Senior Member

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    If unchecked it may cull them too ,when they get to middle age if reports of lasting damage are true.

    I am also wondering about the flu in this and subsequent winter seasons. Will it have a weaker population to infect so long as this Covid strain remains in circulation?
     
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  7. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Chances are it will be a less impactful flu season, on the basis that the social distancing and hygiene measures will likely still be in place (obviously except the USA

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    ), and that is good for the prevention of flu as well as Covid.
     
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  8. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Good! The world has a finite carrying capacity, and the fewer people we have the less we have to worry about resource depletion, CO2 emissions, pollution, fresh water shortages etc etc.
     
  9. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    30,484
    In the US: Only if tax policy continues to shunt all produced surplus wealth - seriously, all of it, for going on fifty years now - into return to capital.

    A restoration of even some of the discarded New Deal features (such as "progressive" taxation of all income) would cover not only shorter work hours but earlier retirement from paid work altogether.
    The oldies that survive, plus the crippled up younger folk, project to be more expensive and burdensome - not less.

    Doctors on the line have been de facto censored (by threats to supplies and money and badly need government help), but there are at least two doctors from the first hot spots - doctors who have been treating US patients from the beginning - who have stated for the record (anonymously, of course) that they have never seen a hospitalized Covid patient recover their normal physical health or anything like it. They suspect similar long-term damage has been and is being inflicted on many infected people who were not hospitalized.
     
  10. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    5,232
    pity the rich ?
    pity the voter for whom they chose ?
    pity the power ?

    what type of pity ?
    is pity charity ?

    boom n bust economics

    outsourcing manufacturing
    out sourcing production
    out sourcing manual labour
    out sourcing administration

    it is unlikely to be research
    it is much more likely to be a media employee
    collecting data and then presenting it

    birth rates are not a mysterious hidden complex set of data
    you can find all the info on the web from the government web sites

    there are 3 to 5 or soo key factors

    india culture wealth poverty
    china one child policy culture wealth poverty
    africa culture wealth poverty famine

    western culture & technology

    thats about it


    economic models
    global economics
    macro-economics
    economic trends
    Key Global market drivers & trends
    Market culture behavior trends & evolution/technology

    more of the hidden mysterious stuff which is equally HUGE money
    social economics

    what part are you unsure of ?
     
  11. elte Valued Senior Member

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  12. geordief Valued Senior Member

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    There is nothing in that article that refers to predicted population levels in the 21st century,which is what the thread is really about.

    The article I linked to (and which addresses that issue) is really very startling.

    I still wonder how reliable it is as I have been unable to track down the source of the actual study and have heard little more about it so far on the airways.
     
  13. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    5,232
    im waiting for the collectors edition kanye trump doll
    president Toby mind shackles & the holograms
    "truly truly trully black-ness.... for president"

    Toby Mind Shackles & the Holograms

    Present
    My Big Black Ass Tour
    new singles include
    Population in my Trunk
    I gotta junk
    Black Ass Blues
    Black money more junk inside my trunk

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    would make an awesome series of south park episodes
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2020
  14. elte Valued Senior Member

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    Sorry I meant to post it in "The Post Whatever Thread"

    My thought on the year 2100 population is that any estimates are likely to be way off.
     
  15. geordief Valued Senior Member

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    1,388
    No problem. I am sceptical too,of course but that estimate could be way off and still be an improvement on what I would have expected.

    Since all predictions come with an inbuilt margin of error then I suppose the actual figures might even turn out to be lower than that forecast.
     
  16. elte Valued Senior Member

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    Thanks.

    If the philosophy of antinatalism were to gain strength, it could go very low or even to zero. An idea about why there aren't known extraterrestrials is that any other advanced civilizations determine that existence is ultimately pointless.
     
  17. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    culture & science and wealth drive birth rates
    modern western society is having less children because they know its the only way to secure a better more stable future

    3rd world and religious countrys think they need to invade the world with their children by breeding like rats
    3rd world countrys make money to trade off the low value of life they have in exchange for master wealth to the slave master to survive longer
    feudal system

    so you have 2 completely different systems competing in a global market

    you cant simply mix the 2 together and suggest they can both be quantified as a end outcome

    you have to calculate each separately then show your working result to then compile them at the end showing how each has a different error & probability value
     

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