How to save earth from hot earth theory and I don’t mean stop global warming.

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by Christoph, Oct 31, 2018.

  1. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    The marching crowd with fire brands held high chanting Cee Ohh Too, Cee Ohh Too, Cee Ohh Too, failed to realize that you can't See O2, but kept on marching any how.

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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    They can be explained very easily by low oxygen concentrations. Normal seawater is 8 to 11 parts per million oxygen (PPM.) Dead zones are 1 to 2 PPM. And if your point is that "reducing oxygen percentage in the atmosphere from ~20% to ~5% would be dangerous" I agree 100%. But that's not going to happen under any scenario we are considering.
    Given that aircraft engines operate at ~40,000 feet, it is unlikely that you will see such problems.
    This is definitely a possibility. In some places, earthquakes or other disturbances have released methane or CO2 pockets from under lakes, and the resulting gas has displaced most of the oxygen. This has killed many people in remote areas. (Google the Lake Nyos disaster.) As methane releases speed up due to a warming climate, you may see similar problems in areas with permafrost.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
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  5. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    See billvon's posts above, the stuff about partial pressure.
    Yes, it does.
     
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  7. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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  8. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Insect population decline.

    Example study:
    In 1989 Bio traps set by entomologists secured a result of 1.6kg
    In 2014 the same traps secured a mere 300gms

    Recently, researchers presented the results of their work to parliamentarians from the German Bundestag, and the findings were alarming: The average biomass of insects caught between May and October has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014.
    Yale
    “The decline is dramatic and depressing and it affects all kinds of insects, including butterflies, wild bees, and hoverflies,” says Martin Sorg, an entomologist from the Krefeld Entomological Association involved in running the monitoring project.
    src: https://e360.yale.edu/features/insect_numbers_declining_why_it_matters
    ====
    Science American .com Published 2017

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    A recent study found that German nature reserves have seen a 75% reduction in flying insects over the last 27 years. The researchers involved made stark warnings that this indicated a wider collapse of the general insect population that would bring about an ecological catastrophe if left unchecked.
    src: https://www.scientificamerican.com/...rmageddon-rdquo-5-crucial-questions-answered/

    Notes:
    Actual German study mentioned is up to only 2014 ( thus seriously limited in relevance to today)
    Insect population tend to exist with in a narrow airspace above the surface ( say 100meters and are considered surface dwellers)
    Insect populations are very sensitive to pollution, introduced anthro chemicals and changes to habitat.

    Comments:
    According to Science American a 75% reduction in flying insects has occurred over the last 27 years up to publication date 2017. Even here in Melbourne Australia insect prevalence is noticeably reduced. Fly and mosquito populations seem to have almost vanished.
    Googling "Insect decline" provides many other resources.

    While the causation for such a rapid and serious decline, is being speculated as possibly being human pollution , over use of insecticides and habitat destruction, little published attention has been given to how 1 degree of average temperatures may effect insect populations. Nor is there any consideration to potential declines in O2 or increases in local CO2 concentrations (%)
    If the trend continues with out acceleration ( acceleration is very possible btw)
    It is obvious that there is an imminent problem but I will do the math as best I can any how...
    75% reduction = 27 years
    so
    75/27 = 2.7% decline per year
    100/ 2.7 = 37 years
    Indicates total wipe out over a spread of 37 years
    Date of article publication 2017
    37 - 1 = 36 years

    36-27= 9 years remaining. ( as of 2018)

    One could conclude that by the year 2026 insects on this planet may very well be extinct.
    However the scenario gets worse, because the 9 years does not include any acceleration of decline due to increased average temperatures ( climate change issues) or other factors.
    Next questions are:
    How important are insects to the Earths ecological sustainability?
    Can humans survive with out insects?

    Basically any one with half a brain already knows that if we do not act now to prepare and adapt to future catastrophic environmental change we as a species will also become extinct very soon. Certainly not 50 years or more but with in the next decade.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    You think you can drive the ant, the mite, the flea, the lowly cockroach to extinction? They will long outlive us.

    That's not to say the extinctions aren't a problem - they are. Just losing bees would be traumatic to the entire ecosystem, not just people. But insects as a group are in no danger of extinction.
     
  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I wish I could share your optimism!

    So... uhm... what year do you think catastrophic environmental collapse is likely?
     
  11. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Define "catastrophic."

    Significant? It's happening already.
    Killing off all of insects? Never.
    Killing off humankind? Very low likelihood of that.
    Disrupting fisheries? Happening already.

    "what year it is likely" is like asking what year humanity started polluting in a bad way. No way to tell unless you can define "bad way."

    I don't think cockroaches outliving us is very optimistic.
     
  12. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I guess what i am attempting to place emphasis on is that we are facing a lot more than just catastrophic climate change ( storms, temps etc)
    we are also facing catastrophic ecological environment change.
    How ever the issue of insect decline is akin to "canaries in a cage" a very strong indicator of ecological health. IMO
    And every indicator is pointing towards a much more imminent threat than proposed by climate science.
     
  13. geordief Registered Senior Member

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    861
    With extinctions on an extremely large scale I feel we are indeed playing with fire.

    I cannot foresee the consequences but I would be very apprehensive about it

    As others have said it is not the cute pandas' fate that should concern us as much as the countless populations and species whose places in the ecosystem we are surely only beginning to understand (just before they disappear).

    As with global warming it seems that the horse here has also bolted....and to a degree we are all a bit like ghoulish onlookers at at roadside accident or tricoteuses at the guillotine. (not to overdo the fiddling Romans metaphore)
     
  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    It's sort of funny, locally I have spent 18 odd years as a daily regular at an outdoor cafe. ( part of a long health recovery routine)
    Being outdoors in Melbourne means inevitably flies and lots of them. unfortunately now the Aussie saying "No flies on me" has some truth to it. Can't think of the last time I waved the famous Aussie salute, waving away dozens of the critters trying to spoil my coffee. Even decomposing garbage waiting for pick up seem to be unattractive these days to the varmints.
    But now that I think on it, we used to see many Sparrows or Finches hovering around looking for food scraps left over by cafe patrons. I just realized now that I haven't seen one for about 2 years. Lot's of larger birds mainly Ravens or sea gulls but no small birds at all....
    I will do some local research and see what I find out...
     
  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    18,545
    Yes it is hard not to get all morbid about it all and perhaps it is necessary to do so if only to inspire communities to start acting for their own futures.
    The psychology of those faced with Armageddon has been often written about in fiction, but no one on this planet has ever actually had to prepare for it. Until now.
    Self preparing is obviously one of the greatest challenges. So many unknowns, yet certain facts are available to indicate at the very least that massive change in the very near future is inevitable.
    For me it all started around 1986 with the ozone depletion issue. It became obvious to me then that my grand children yet to be born may never see their own grand children.

    There are many unknowns, factors that science have yet to even glimpse at so perhaps courage and faith are needed to avoid serious depression?

    For example:
    Fiction:
    Atmospheric CO2 under certain conditions ( yet to be discovered by science) relinquishes Carbon and reverts to O2 ( whilst in the air - with carbon falling to the ground - think of : carbon rain)
    That O2 at 20.956% is actually a universal constant ( think : Life ) that everything revolves around, just as 0 deg C is the freezing point of H2O

    Suffice to say we are heading into uncharted waters and some positive surprises may come to be.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2018
  16. geordief Registered Senior Member

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    861
    It is easy to contemplate what might happen by noting that we will never destroy the planet ,only our place on it if (as seems likely) things do deteriorate quite quickly (just a gut feeling ,I have no expertise)

    Sadly ,it also seems that those at the sharp end of the consequences will be those who have done least to cause the problem or benefited from the prevailing bubble of prosperity .

    As for succumbing to depression,there are plenty of other things that would lead us down the same path....I learned yesterday that an acquaintance had had her bladder removed and was struggling to cope with a stoma in her daily activities.She might perhaps be persuaded to exchange her real situation for our gloomy outlook.

    Worst comes to the worst we will have a civilizational upheaval with many deaths but we have to live in hope and if we manage to come through anyway intact I have no idea what lessons we will have to have learned in the process. Maybe treat it as a potential kind of "coming of age" process.
     
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    18,545
    Sad about your acquaintance and you point is understood.
    another more anecdotal issue:
    I have a working relationship with a shopping centers security staff, developed over many years and often share coffee with a couple of them.
    Many years ago I asked the supervisor how many patrons he had to remove from the shopping center due to mental health issues and he said on average about 17 per day. General medical call outs were about as you would expect. ( occasional fall, heart attack etc)
    A few days ago I asked the same question and he replied it was about 40% more, indicating that the situation was seriously deteriorating generally. (local population demographics have been static)
    There appears to be a deteriorating mental health issue of some significance developing.
    Perhaps this is due to things unrelated to climate change anxiety but I tend to think that people are becoming more anxious and those that are vulnerable will develop aberrant mental health orientated behavior.
    Casual inquiry reveals local hospital admissions for such significantly increasing. Anxiety issues , chest pain, psychosis etc all on the up.
    Then I start to think about global politics and wonder: Is this all somehow related?
     
  18. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    18,545
    I think it is pretty straight forward.
    We either learn the lessons nature is teaching us or we become extinct.
    Living in a closed system requires a symbiotic relationship. If we don't give as we take we die...or at the very least suffer as we are and will be doing so until we learn the lesson. ( if we are lucky enough to be granted the opportunity)
     
  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    14,528
    Exactly. If pandas go extinct that's sad but won't mess with the ecosystem very much.

    If phytoplankton goes extinct? They're not very cute but that would have a huge and devastating impact on the Earth.
     
  20. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    18,545
    How does the decline ( reportedly) in phytoplankton globally effect atmospheric O2%?
    Generally?
     
  21. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    7,857
    A figure I keep seeing suggests about 2/3 of atmospheric oxygen is produced by phytoplankton. That said, I've also read that phytoplankton population has reduced something like 40% since the 1950s, yet the atmospheric oxygen levels haven't changed that much. So it's unlikely to be a simple answer.
    A study by Leicester University in 2015 suggested that phytoplankton could die out completely around the start of the 22nd century, with major impact on marine life and subsequent food chain, as well as impact on atmosphere.
     
  22. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,441
    A study led by Sergei Petrovskii, Professor in Applied Mathematics

    oh WOW
    yet one more mathematical "climate" model
    meanwhile
    the pacific warm pool was most likely 4 degrees C warmer 12 million years ago. and 12 degrees C warmer 50 million years ago

    What a pity that everything died out back then due to oxygen deprivation!
    Perhaps, that explains why the planet was subsequently repopulated by aliens from the planet Zorg?
    ..............
    The Boy Who Cried Wolf by Aesop
    comes to mind
     

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