Human Induced Climate Change is Real:

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by paddoboy, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    So, you think man made contribution of greenhouse gasses to a significant degree is good and to say otherwise is part of a conspiracy?
     
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  3. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    https://theconversation.com/sea-lev...n-the-pacific-first-scientific-evidence-58511
    Sea-level rise, erosion and coastal flooding are some of the greatest challenges facing humanity from climate change.

    Recently at least five reef islands in the remote Solomon Islands have been lost completely to sea-level rise and coastal erosion, and a further six islands have been severely eroded.

    These islands lost to the sea range in size from one to five hectares. They supported dense tropical vegetation that was at least 300 years old. Nuatambu Island, home to 25 families, has lost more than half of its habitable area, with 11 houses washed into the sea since 2011.

    This is the first scientific evidence, published in Environmental Research Letters, that confirms the numerous anecdotal accounts from across the Pacific of the dramatic impacts of climate change on coastlines and people.

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    All that remains of one of the completely eroded islands. Simon Albert, Author provided
    A warning for the world
    Previous studies examining the risk of coastal inundation in the Pacific region have found that islands can actually keep pace with sea-level riseand sometimes even expand.

    However, these studies have been conducted in areas of the Pacific with rates of sea level rise of 3-5 mm per year – broadly in line with the global average of 3 mm per year.

    For the past 20 years, the Solomon Islands have been a hotspot for sea-level rise. Here the sea has risen at almost three times the global average, around 7-10 mm per year since 1993. This higher local rate is partly the result of natural climate variability.

    These higher rates are in line with what we can expect across much of the Pacific in the second half of this century as a result of human-induced sea-level rise. Many areas will experience long-term rates of sea-level rise similar to that already experienced in Solomon Islands in all but the very lowest-emission scenarios.

    Natural variations and geological movements will be superimposed on these higher rates of global average sea level rise, resulting in periods when local rates of rise will be substantially larger than that recently observed in Solomon Islands. We can therefore see the current conditions in Solomon Islands as an insight into the future impacts of accelerated sea-level rise.

    We studied the coastlines of 33 reef islands using aerial and satellite imagery from 1947-2015. This information was integrated with local traditional knowledge, radiocarbon dating of trees, sea-level records, and wave models.

    Waves add to damage
    Wave energy appears to play an important role in the dramatic coastal erosion observed in Solomon Islands. Islands exposed to higher wave energy in addition to sea-level rise experienced greatly accelerated loss compared with more sheltered islands.

    Twelve islands we studied in a low wave energy area of Solomon Islands experienced little noticeable change in shorelines despite being exposed to similar sea-level rise. However, of the 21 islands exposed to higher wave energy, five completely disappeared and a further six islands eroded substantially.

    The human story
    These rapid changes to shorelines observed in Solomon Islands have led to the relocation of several coastal communities that have inhabited these areas for generations. These are not planned relocations led by governments or supported by international climate funds, but are ad hocrelocations using their own limited resources.

    Many homes are close to sea level on the Solomons. Simon Albert, Author provided
    The customary land tenure (native title) system in Solomon Islands has provided a safety net for these displaced communities. In fact, in some cases entire communities have left coastal villages that were established in the early 1900s by missionaries, and retraced their ancestral movements to resettle old inland village sites used by their forefathers.

    In other cases, relocations have been more ad hoc, with indivdual families resettling small inland hamlets over which they have customary ownership.

    In these cases, communities of 100-200 people have fragmented into handfuls of tiny family hamlets. Sirilo Sutaroti, the 94-year-old chief of the Paurata tribe, recently abandoned his village. “The sea has started to come inland, it forced us to move up to the hilltop and rebuild our village there away from the sea,” he told us.

    In addition to these village relocations, Taro, the capital of Choiseul Province, is set to become the first provincial capital in the world to relocate residents and services in response to the impact of sea-level rise.

    The global effort
    Interactions between sea-level rise, waves, and the large range of responses observed in Solomon Islands – from total island loss to relative stability – shows the importance of integrating local assessments with traditional knowledge when planning for sea-level rise and climate change.

    Linking this rich knowledge and inherent resilience in the people with technical assessments and climate funding is critical to guiding adaptation efforts.

    Melchior Mataki who chairs the Solomon Islands’ National Disaster Council, said: “This ultimately calls for support from development partners and international financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund. This support should include nationally driven scientific studies to inform adaptation planning to address the impacts of climate change in Solomon Islands.”

    Last month, the Solomon Islands government joined 11 other small Pacific Island nations in signing the Paris climate agreement in New York. There is a sense of optimism among these nations that this signifies a turning point in global efforts.

    However, it remains to be seen how the hundreds of billions of dollars promised through global funding models such as the Green Climate Fund can support those most at need in remote communities, like those in Solomon Islands.
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  5. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/downloads/SLR_PA.pdf
    This position analysis outlines recent developments in the science of sea-level rise and its influence on the effects of extreme events such as high tides and storm surges. It also identifies some of the key issues around the potential impacts of sea-level rise and extreme events and the consequences they will have for Australia and its neighbours. The aims of this position analysis are to: 1. inform Australian governments and community about recent results in the science of sea-level rise and associated events that are a consequence of climate change; 2. outline some of the likely impacts of these changes on Australia and neighbouring countries in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean regions; and 3. identify issues that will need to be considered in developing policies to respond to sea-level change and its impacts.
    MORE AT LINK....
     
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  7. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    https://unfccc.int/climate-action/m...-solutions/mapping-exposure-to-sea-level-rise
    Key facts:
    • More than 10,000 buildings identified at high risk of inundation within 80 years including schools, hospitals and critical infrastructure
    • 195 people from the governments of Tonga, Samoa, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea were trained on how to manage and use LiDAR data
    • The Vanuatu Globe was a significant Open Data portal produced for the Vanuatu Government and set a new precedent for publically sharing sea level rise information
    • Through the Vanuatu Globe, the project was able to help the 2015 Cyclone Pam recovery by providing critical map information which was accessed by more than 1,000 people a day within days of the cyclo
    more at link.................
     
  8. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    And yes schmelzer, on this issue I do have an agenda....My wife is Fijian and I have as I said before, already seen effects of sea level rises.
    And as yet you seem to have avoided answering the logic of my statement, that if uncertainties do exist, we must err on the side of caution. So, you have my agenda, if you chose to call it that...what's your agenda?
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    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_island_nations

    ReferencesEdit
    1. ^ Loeak, Christopher Jorebon. "A Clarion Call From the Climate Change Frontline." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christopher-jorebon-loeak/a-clarion-call-from-the-c_b_5833180.html. Website.
    2. ^ "Is Sea Level Rising?" Is Sea Level Rising? NOAA, n.d. Web. 21 Feb. 2016. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html.
    3. ^ "Sea Level." NASA, n.d. Web. 21 Feb. 2016. <https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/>.
    4. ^ Sutter, John D. "Life in a Disappearing Country." CNN. Cable News Network, n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016. http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2015/06/opinions/sutter-two-degrees-marshall-islands/
    5. ^ Warne, Kennedy (February 13, 2015). "Will Pacific Island Nations Disappear as Seas Rise? Maybe Not". National Geographic.
    6. ^ "Climate Change in the Pacific Islands." Climate Change in the Pacific Islands. US Fish and Wildlife Service, n.d. Web. 21 Feb. 2016. http://www.fws.gov/pacific/climatechange/changepi.html.
    7. ^ "Climate Change Impacts - Pacific Islands -." The Global Mechanism (n.d.): n.pag. IFAD. Web. 21 Feb. 2016. http://www.ifad.org/events/apr09/impact/islands.pdf.
    8. ^ "Coping with Climate Change in the Pacific Island Region." Coping with Climate Change in the Pacific Island Region. GIZ, n.d. Web. 21 Feb. 2016. https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/14200.html.
    9. ^ "Climate Change in the Maldives." South Asia -. World Bank, n.d. Web. 21 Feb.2016 http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXT...K:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:223547,00.html.
    10. ^ a b "National Adaptation Programme of Action." (n.d.): n. pag. Republic of Maldives. Web. 21 Feb. 2016. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/mdv01.pdf
    11. ^ a b http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...h-kiribati-maldives-cyclone-marshall-islands/[full citation needed]
    12. ^ Climate Change in the Marshall Islands on YouTube American Museum of Natural History
    13. ^ Gillespie & Burns (1999). Climate Change in the South Pacific: Impacts and Responses in Australia, New Zealand, and Small Island States. Kluwewr Academic Publishers. ISBN 0-7923-6077-X.
    14. ^ Davenport, Coral, and Josh Haner. "The Marshall Islands Are Disappearing." The New York Times. The New York Times, 01 Dec. 2015. Web. 28 Jan. 2016. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/02/world/The-Marshall-Islands-Are-Disappearing.html?_r=0. Website.
    15. ^ Lewis, Renee. "‘Nowhere to Move’: Marshall Islands Adapts amid Climate Change Threat." Adapting to Climate Change in the Marshall Islands. Al Jazeera, 19 May 2015. Web. 28 Jan. 2016 <http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/5/19/Marshall-Islands-climate.html>. Website.
    16. ^ Ford, Murray (2013). "Shoreline changes interpreted from multi-temporal aerial photographs and high resolution satellite images: Wotje Atoll, Marshall Islands". Remote Sensing of Environment. 135: 130–40. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2013.03.027.
    17. ^ Gilman, Eric; Owens, Matthew; Kraft, Thomas (2014). "Ecological risk assessment of the Marshall Islands longline tuna fishery". Marine Policy. 44: 239–55. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2013.08.029.
    18. ^ Zak, Dan. "A Ground Zero Forgotten." Washington Post. The Washington Post, n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/27/a-ground-zero-forgotten
    19. ^ a b Sutter, John D. "Life in a Disappearing Country." CNN. Cable News Network, n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016 <http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2015/06/opinions/sutter-two-degrees-marshall-islands/
    20. ^ "NEWS: Marshall Islands Call for "New Wave of Climate Leadership" at Upcoming Pacific Islands Forum." Climate and Development Knowledge Network. N.p., 02 July 2013. Web. 28 Jan. 2016. http://cdkn.org/2013/07/news-marsha...upcoming-pacific-islands-forum/?loclang=en_gb.
    21. ^ Loeak, Christopher Jorebon. "UN Climate Summit: The Chance to Prove That We Are Climate Leaders." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christopher-jorebon-loeak/un-climate-summit-the-cha_b_5532314.html>. Website.
    22. ^ Rudiak-Gould, Peter (2012). "Promiscuous corroboration and climate change translation: A case study from the Marshall Islands". Global Environmental Change. 22 (1): 46–54. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.011.
     
  9. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    Professor Brian Cox explains climate science to denier Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts
     
  10. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    I'm not a conspiracy theorist. Ok, I see that the Western media lie in well-coordinates ways, consistently. But, given the large concentration of the media power, not much conspiracy is required to reach this. Those who simply believe what these well-organized liars say I consider to be victims, not participants.
    The man-made contributions have positive as well as negative consequences, and it would be the job of science to find out what is more important. It seems plausible that to some degree they are more positive than negative in the long run. But if too fast, adaptation creates costs, so that the overall result may be negative.
    And you want to make me believe that 5 (or even 10) mm/year sea-level rise played a role there, instead of coastal erosion being the completely sufficient explanation for the fate of these islands?

    But, ok, let's see:
    Implausible. Much more plausible is that behind this are local movements of the ground.

    Whatever, coastal erosion is a well-known phenomenon, completely sufficient to explain the disappearance of whole islands, especially if nothing is done against it. I have seen what can be done and has been done even by the poor communist GDR of the '60s to solve problems with coastal erosion at the Baltic sea. Simply pump some water from the ground of the sea some 100 m away from the coast to the beach. It will be full of sand, and the sand will remain. There appeared, in a short time, 30 m of new nice sand beach.

    LOL, what else?

    As expected. If the governments are doing nothing, some islands are subject to coastal erosion. Others may become greater. If no government cares, some people may be forced to switch to other locations. This is the picture you have had during the past hundred years too, even without any climate change.
    So it looks that the ancestors were wiser about where to found villages than the missionaries.

    In fact, what the journalists writing this article are doing is also not that bad. The sea level rise by climate change is, of course, of sufficiently minor importance, coastal erosion being more important. But, of course, giving the Western Greens what they want in exchange for getting some money is quite reasonable for them. If they succeed to get them, of course - which is far from obvious:

    Fighting the liars - the Western media. Their lies are murderous. See what their lies have supported - a murderous fascist regime starting a civil war in Ukraine, murderous jihadist terror gangs in Libya, Syria, and other countries.

    I do not care about agendas, I care about arguments.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2019
  11. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    How does the NASA data fit in with all this, are they liars?
    And man made sugar can have a positive effect too, but overall?
     
  12. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    I have no objection against any NASA data. As explained many times, I have no problem with any scientific study. I have a problem with the media hysteria which completely hides any of the many positive effects and paints only catastrophic scenarios.
    ?????????
     
  13. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    Sunshine, yummy, holiday special, forever?
     
  14. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Burning ethanol produces CO2.
     
  15. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    I do.
    As explained above when the second paragraph of the copy-and-pasted article at the beginning of this thread is complete bullshit---then all of the posted becomes suspect.
    ................
    That being said
    Fiji has a soil erosion problem due to deforestation.
    ....................
    And
    All energy use produces greenhouse gasses.
    What then?
     
  16. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    I'd like to say that I'm explicitly interested whit the CO2 chart and the subsequent views of whether it is a good or bad (or neutral

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    ) thing?
     
  17. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, it does. And growing the crops to produce it reabsorbs it.

    CO2 is not the problem. 400PPM of CO2 in our atmosphere is the problem.
    ?? Use the forms of energy that produce the least. Simple.
     
  18. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Stupid missionaries, not predicting sea level change due to global warming!
     
  19. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    If indeed 400PPM of CO2 in our atmosphere is a problem(and, I ain't quite sure that it is)
    Then, perhaps turning recent converted corn land into forests and swamps would offer a better approach?

    consider that
    from: https://www.ewg.org/energy/20424/ethanol-industry-study-fudges-numbers/

    I suspect that nothing worth doing is "simple". And, that those who seek "simple" solutions to complex problems are delusional.
    ................................
    but, then again, I could be wrong?
     
  20. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    Nice caveat.

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  21. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Sure, that's one way to approach it.
     
  22. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    No, not understanding coastal erosion.
    Maybe. But it looks to me that the central problems caused by global warming are not that complex, and they have simple solutions which worked even in Ancient Egypt. For example, the solution to switch to crops which are more adequate for a new climate seems quite simple. But those who compute the harm caused by warming use theoretical models where no such thing will be done.

    Moreover, one should not forget that even for some complex problems simple methods can reduce the problems, and it depends on the actual numbers (but not necessarily on the complexity) if this reduction is essential.
     
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  23. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Just because you don't understand it doesn't mean no one does.
    People thought the same thing about rabbits in Australia. The problems won't be bad - and if there are problems, they will be easy to solve.

    How'd that turn out for them?
     

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