Is global warming even real?

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by Ilikeponies579, Dec 16, 2014.

  1. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Henrik Svensmark
     
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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Agreed, that's the primary one. Some others:
    Chemical weathering. Higher CO2 concentrations will lead to faster removal of CO2 due to chemical weathering.
    Plant response to CO2. Many plants will grow faster, thus absorbing more CO2 into biomass (and eventually sequestering it.)
    Reduced lapse rate = warmer upper atmosphere = faster radiation of heat.
    Given that fossil fuels are basically biomass, some of it is stored for a very long time.
     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Yes to both. That complexity and seasonal plus latitude variation is why no one can be sure if the net annual effect of increased clouds is negative or positive feed-back.

    I do believe that there will be more water vapor in the air, and thus probably more clouds. If memory serves me correctly the total water vapor increases by 7% per degree C of average ocean surface temperature increase (from current conditions).
     
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  7. wellwisher Banned Banned

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    The negative feedback role of more water vapor in the atmosphere, due to positive CO2 heating feedback, is different for land and sea. The land heats faster than the water/oceans, therefore clouds over land, have a greater impact in terms of the negative feedback, than do clouds over the sea. If you go the beach in the morning, the sun and sand may be close in temperature. By noon, the sand burns your feet, while the water stays about the same. One cloud over both lans and sea, impacts land more.

    The wild card in this negative and positive, water-CO2 equation, is life. Life is composed of water and solids. Life over land helps to cool the land, due to its water aspect. While life in the water, helps to heat the water due to its solid aspect. Algae in the ocean can help the water warm by offering greater absorption. While forests over the land, helps to keep things cooler than you get in the desert. The deserts of the world and other defoliated areas, remove life-water and heat more. Deserts rarely see clouds and contribute heat.

    If the original life formed in the oceans, the first impact of life would have been to add solids to the water, allowing the oceans to warm. The land was hotter being without life. This scenario allows more evaporation for storms over land and sea. The receding water, that evaporates near shores, deposited life-water on land, that then takes root on the land. As life spreads over the land, the land cools, moderating the global temperatures.
     
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    China proving growth with less Green House Gas release is possible:

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    But I think 9 billion tonnes of CO2 per year still gives them "worst polluter" title.
    Assuming US + Europe are not considered as one block with about (or slightly less) population:

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    Last edited by a moderator: May 24, 2015
  9. zgmc Registered Senior Member

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    I haven't had time to go through any of these publications yet, but it looks interesting. The link is to the CLOUD project website.

    http://cloud.web.cern.ch/content/publications
     
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  10. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Sadly what I predicted is coming true:
    1118 now dead in less than week by official count for heat wave in SE India. Monsoon relief from temperatures that have hit 48C (118 F) is at least a week away. Total dead by heat may only rise to 2000 if they are lucky.
     
  11. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    What you predicted?

    You know this year is an el nino year right?
     
  12. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Well, I can predict that people will freeze to death next winter. Such predictions don't mean much, since both happen with regularity. (Also note that the 1936 US heat wave killed 5000.)
     
  13. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    To be fair, they do say that the heat is only slightly above usual, and that hundreds perish every year.
    But what they haven't said is the numbers who perish in a single heat wave event like this one as they refer only to annual figures when recounting heat orientated death tolls...
    One thing worth considering though is that there is an unknown threshold temperature that once passed death rates would most likely increase dramatically.
    At present they are talking of general temperatures up to 50 degrees Celsius...not specific locations that could have considerably higher temps.
    Also if the general temp should climb only one degree higher and so on, how would that effect the death toll?
    In other words an extreme heat wave (50+) could decimate the population in a very short time.

    ===
    When working in central Australia ( 1990's) the summer temperature in certain areas was often recorded at around 52 deg C.
    The warnings to staff were that death could occur with in 30 minutes with out shelter ( and water) Radios and other safety gear were mandatory if leaving base.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2015
  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  16. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    It is not just the temperature, but high humidity can reduce your cooling rate (by evaporation of sweat) to less than your internal heat generation rate - about 100W. That is what kills: more internal heat generated than you can get rid of.
     
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    So generally high temps (>40deg c) with rain ( monsoonal conditions ) could prove a lethal cocktail?

    When working in central Australia ( up to 52 deg c ) the air was mostly dry with low humidity. Survival in the shade was possible with adequate safety gear. But if the air was humid I doubt survival, unless in artificially air conditioned environment, would be tenable.
    (We managed by moving from one air con.d environment to another most of the time..it would have been impossible to function with out it)

    Do you know of any charts indicating hyper-thermic states leading to mortality re: humidity and temp?
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2015
  18. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    One aspect closely related to Global Warming, mainly via habitat change or destruction, is the current high , extremely high, rate of extinction:
     
  19. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Billy T
    Look at what else the author, Paul Ehrlich has claimed.
    Personally, I doubt his credibility.
     
  20. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Why? His is but one of dozens of studies telling the same story. For example from BBC:
    OR
    Or from 19 March 2004 issue of Science So not only is his paper's conclusion well supported by other studies, it is not even "news":

    "Scientists have produced the first comprehensive evidence that the diversity of butterflies, birds and plants is in decline in the UK. They say their research supports the argument that mass extinction threatens life on Earth.

    In the past 20 years, according to a study in the US journal Science today, about 70% of all butterfly species in Britain have shown signs of decline. About 28% of plant species and 54% of bird species also declined in areas studied over long periods. The finding comes from government-funded scientists using data painstakingly amassed over the past 40 years by 20,000 skilled naturalists.

    Sandra Knapp, a botanist at the Natural History Museum, said the UK survey gave a crucial message for the world:
    "The lesson and the warning are there for all to see. Britain, by virtue of its well-known and well-studied biodiversity, is the canary for the rest of the globe.

    "This adds enormous strength to the hypothesis that the world is approaching its sixth major extinction event," said Jeremy Thomas of the Natural Environment Research Council, who led the study of butterfly populations. "The others appear to have been cosmic events, either from outer space coming in or some major perturbation - volcanos, whatever - within the Earth. So they are believed to be physical events.

    "You could say this latest one is an organic event: that one form of life has become so dominant on Earth that through its over-exploitation and its wastes, it eats, destroys, or poisons the others."
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2015
  21. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Neither of these apparent possibilities has been established as a net remover of CO2 from the air at all, let alone on a relevant scale.
    That's been figured in - it doesn't help. The equilibrium state is the same as it is now - energy in = energy out.
     
  22. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    They are certainly net removers, and will function as negative feedback mechanisms to slow the growth of CO2. Of course, they are insufficient to significantly reduce that increase.
    Exactly. And as the atmosphere warms, more energy out. That's why every model shows temperature eventually leveling out at a new (higher) temperature, rather than increasing forever.
     
  23. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    You may be interested in the "Chasing Ice" thread at......
    http://www.sciforums.com/threads/chasing-ice.150464/
     

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