Is global warming even real?

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by Ilikeponies579, Dec 16, 2014.

  1. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Actually, no, that's not certain - it's maybe the way to bet, but there are complications. Greater fire frequency and reduced root sequestration, in the vegetative growth, greater release of CO2 into the air from some aspects of the chemical weathering and water solution, etc.
    Better to be clear. At equilibrium the energy out balances the energy in, the solar flux, which is not "warming". It will be about what it was in 1850. The CO2 is currently cutting the outflow, insulating the lower atmosphere from space, and the atmosphere will warm until the extra outflow pressure overcomes the insulating CO2, the extra water vapor, the methane, maybe some nighttime clouds, etc, and restores the loss to match the gain.

    It's just a little different mental take than a warming atmosphere radiating more heat than before.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2015
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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    It is, and we have very good estimates that describe how much CO2 those mechanisms sequester.
    Those are different mechanisms (combustion, for example) which are positive feedback mechanisms. The sum total of all those mechanisms are what we see today.
    Or more accurately what it would have been without the additional CO2, since the climate is not static. Even before 1850 we were seeing slow changes.
     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I found old post showing that early cosmic ray daughters nearly preserve the travel direction of the primary (in Earth's reference frame) for reasons I have explained. Here is diagram of the Pierre Auger cosmic ray observatory in Argentina (1600 large water tanks each separated from other by 1.5Km) :

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    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhTpMPh6f9Y In some ways it is like a large human eye with each water tank acting like one retinal cell.

    One interesting thing (to me at least) is they get the extremely accurate time needed from GPS. I.e. they know exactly where the tanks are, so turn GPS around to learn precisely when the events (flashes of Cherenkof light in the tanks ) occurred. I think that avoids needing a very precise clock at each tanks.
     
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  7. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    What we have are not net estimates over many years, but short term small scale measurements extrapolated over areas and time.

    We don't have certainty - and good reason to think we're facing some significant errors - in actual ecological situations over time. The increase in above ground vegetative growth compared with roots, the dropoff in growth boost over years in perennials, the effects on disease and pest resistance, and so forth - it's not a simple situation. Extra CO2 does not simply increase long term CO2 sequestration in plants over the long term in real life. Neither are its effects on the sequestration via chemical reaction in rocks simple - the acidification of the upper ocean waters may soon lead to much reduced sequestration in bottom-deposited shells and corals and such mineral structures, reducing the mineral sequestration as increased weathering of dryland rocks increases it. Which will predominate in the decades to come? Hard to say. And so forth.
     
  8. wellwisher Banned Banned

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    One wildcard variable for climate change is; the solubility of gases in water will increase with the application of weak magnetic fields. The magnetic fields impacts the dipole of the water and thereby impacts hydrogen bonding allowing more void space for gases to be in the water.

    Changes in the earth's magnetic field, up or down, impacts the equilibrium solubility of gases in the oceans. For example, the polar caps did not shrink, but actually grew over the past decade, even though conventional wisdom and models assumed they would get smaller. Some glaciers did melt, though.

    This can be explained with the observation that the earth magnetic field is fluctuating and many scientists believe the earth is potentially heading toward a reversal of the field, which occurs every 100,000, with the earth now due for a reversal. A weakening field, downward in preparation for reversal, will cause less gases to be soluble at the poles, which causes more O2, N2, and CO2 to be expelled by the polar oceans into the atmosphere. The lower gas levels allows the liquid water to freeze easier (gases cause supercooling), such that a polar freeze expansion can occur even with a slight global warming. Some of the CO2 and methane may be coming from the oceans due to the magnetic reversal prep and should not be erroneously attributed to man.

    Once the reversal is complete and the field stabilizes and then strengthens again, more gases will enter the ocean pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere. In the short term, the change in the polar water could inhibit the freezing of the polar caps after summer thaws, causing the caps to shrink, as the temperature begins to fall.
     
  9. origin Heading towards oblivion Valued Senior Member

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    Once again just pulling stuff out of your ass and stating it as a fact. At least you are consistent.

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  10. Mr. G reality.sys Valued Senior Member

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    I will not "believe" in global warming/cooling/anthropogenetic climate-change bullsh*t until the Gulfstream-flying coal mine canaries fly coach/drive/walk/bicycle until the danger has passed.

    Fun to be lectured by our intellectual "betters".
     
  11. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    Great thing about science is it's true whether or not you believe in it.
     
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  12. origin Heading towards oblivion Valued Senior Member

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    I think you may have set the bar too high there.
    I would not say we are better, we are just not swayed by politics and are listening to the experts that are educated in climatology.
     
  13. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    So you base your scientific beliefs on the personal habits of a few people? Do you refuse to eat anything healthy until every single healthfood advocate renounces all prepared foods? Do you refuse to exercise until every single doctor gets rid of their TV and their couch?
    There are a lot of people who are intellectually better than me; I listen to their lectures all the time. Do you feel that since no one is smarter than you are, listening to anyone else is a waste of time?
     
  14. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Not only that, but people he despises for their faddish thinking and opportunistic greed.
     
  15. Mr. G reality.sys Valued Senior Member

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    So, are "scientific" hypotheses true, whether or not you believe in any of them?

    Science is neither about truth or belief.

    It's about disproof.

    It's about discovery of Nature's indelible qualities.
     
  16. Mr. G reality.sys Valued Senior Member

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    I won't take global warming/climate change hysteria seriously until those who warn us of the danger behave exactly like they want the rest of us to behave.right now.

    We (the USA) have already declared our independence from the targeted, imperious impulses of our claimed "betters".

    See above.
     
  17. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    All of them?

    If you plan to ignore physical realities until there are no more lazy, greedy, or dishonest people paying attention to them, the least you can do is get out of the way of the rest of us.
     
  18. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    So you wouldn't take exercise advice from a doctor who drives to work?
    Are you smarter than every teacher you have ever had?
     
  19. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    Is Quantum Mechanics correct?
    Is simple harmonic motion correct?
    Is the conservation of mass and energy correct?
    Is the Beer-Lambert law correct?
    Is the Stefan-Boltzman law, and it's implied relationship between the temperature of a star and the temperature of its planets correct?

    You were the one bringing believing in things into science. The things I listed above are the things that conspire together to make the prediction that increasing the atmospheric partial pressure of green house gasses - including cardbon dioxide, will lead to an increase in the amount of thermal energy being radiated by the earth that is absorbed by the atmosphere and stored as heat energy - some of which is re-emitted, some of which is used to do work, and some of which is retained as an increase in temperature.

    All of which happens, regardless of whether or not you personally believe in it.
     
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  20. Dr_Toad It's green! Valued Senior Member

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    Good to hear from you, Trippy.

    I remember taking umbrage with someone for using the phrase "believe in science", but they couldn't understand why, or even what I was trying to convey. It might have been a fundie, though...

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  21. river

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    This Global warming concept is nonsense .

    Climate Change is the reality .

    And Co2 , has nothing to do with what is going on with our weather .

    We do know this people , right ?
     
  22. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    If that's a joke, it has to be flagged better - Poe's Law. The only people who "know" that are cliche dittoheads and similar bubbletrapped inmates of the Kochworld.
     
  23. river

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    Its best that you investigate .
     

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