Is Moore's Law Accelerating?

Discussion in 'General Science & Technology' started by khan, Jun 17, 2012.

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  1. khan Registered Senior Member

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    http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/ex...s-law-isnt-dead-its-moved-to-warp-speed/15021

     
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  3. khan Registered Senior Member

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    Cyborg humans ...coming soon

    http://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/29/tech/super-computer-exa-flop/index.html


    In the very near future you may have to decide whether you wish to remain a neo-luddite or be upgraded with neural implants...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgStGEDLFB4

    http://www.singularitysymposium.com/ted-kaczynski.html

     
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  5. KilljoyKlown Whatever Valued Senior Member

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    khan

    As far as silicon goes we are approaching the end of Moore's Law, however people are adapting Moore's Law to mean computing power as a whole. One problem with the time table the OP is predicting is the companies just won't release there products that fast even if they could. All companies are very structured in their planned product releases. They will only release new products with limited performance increases over the old products. Just enough to induce current product holder's to upgrade and to be competitive with their competitors.

    From what I understand chip makers have as many as 5 generations of new product in the pipeline and skipping any generation would cost them billions.

    I don't expect any really meaningful cyborg implants during the years I have left in my life and even if by chance they did, they would be above my pay grade.

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  7. khan Registered Senior Member

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    You could be right. Certain types of technology certainly do appear to be advancing but other types are stagnating. For example, computers are definitely improving rapidly while we are still stuck with the internal combustion engine with its heavy reliance on fossil fuels.
     
  8. KilljoyKlown Whatever Valued Senior Member

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    Are you trying to tie Moore's Law into other types of non-computer related technology? I think if you want to complain about internal combustion engines a new thread would be best.
     
  9. khan Registered Senior Member

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    I am making an observation, not a complaint

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    All technologies are interconnected and interdependent.

    Futurists predict that Moore's law will lead to a technological singularity. If that is true, how will lagging but interconnected technologies inevitably change in tandem to increasing computational power?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law#Futurists_and_Moore.27s_law

     
  10. KilljoyKlown Whatever Valued Senior Member

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    I don't believe in a technological singularity as described. As long as oil remains the cheap energy of choice, the combustion engine will remain a big part of our world. But they do see the writing on the wall and are starting explore other options. Probably won't happen fast enough to prevent some major climate changes. But then humans learn best when they are inconvenienced the most.

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  11. khan Registered Senior Member

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    Some say the single atom transistor signifies the end of Moore's law

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    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/02/120219191244.htm

    The single atom transistor must be kept ultra-cold in order to work though.

    We appear to be reaching the end of Moore's law, according to Michio Kaku...

    http://lybio.net/michio-kaku-tweaking-moores-law-and-the-computers-of-the-post-silicon-era/people/

     
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