Israel invades Plaestine, again under high-kill ratio policy

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Billy T, Nov 17, 2012.

  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member


    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    Four Israeli Iron domes shot down 192 rockets in three days.
    This is a small step towards the more defensive, less high-kill ratio, policy I have suggested in considerable detail 6+ years ago (and was told by several others it could not work. My CIWS system was much cheaper and had been proven in 30 year of ship defenses, but I´m glad if this is start of Israeli thinking in terms of defense instead of high-kill ratio policy. Certainly, now Iron Dome type missiles are needed as incoming rockets are improved too.):
    I have many other old post suggesting a more defensive, less high kill ratio approach for Israel, including some warning that in a generation or so with no change away from Israel´s High –Kill ratio policy, the incoming missiles will have air-born, lethal biological agents instead of HE in them and be attacked by individuals quite willing to die while dispersing such agent from windows of high building in Tel-Viva etc. As the Good Book says: If you live by the sword, you will die by the sword. Israel will again win this soon to be launched ground war and kill several thousand Palestinians in its “victory”, but this is the last time – Next time Israel will have more than a million Israelis dying from biological agents.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2012
  2. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement

    to hide all adverts.
  3. GeoffP Caput gerat lupinum Valued Senior Member

    Title's a bit misleading there, Bill.
  4. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement

    to hide all adverts.
  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Premature or predictive, only. Sevaral tanks per hour are arriving at boarder and about 50,000 regular army* are now there with 75,000 reservist getting geared up.

    The Social Democratic party, never before a threat to the Lukuid, was gaining in the polls - something had to be done. Nothing like a hot war to stop their progress. (They don´t even campaign now.)

    * It is 175,000 man strong army, but currently only some of Israel´s 700+ jets are dropping bombs and firing missles - completely destroyed the main police station yesterday as I saw on CNN. I don´t know if US version of CNN is reporting all the killings and destruction the jets are doing.

    What Israel seems not to full appreciate is the Arab Spring effects. The governments of several Arab States are no longer ruled by Dictators who got rich feeding at the US´s well supplied pig troughs. Even Israel friendly Jordan appears to be having second thoughts.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2012
  6. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement

    to hide all adverts.
  7. The Marquis Only want the best for Nigel Valued Senior Member

    "Arab spring...." Geez.

    Billy. What have those totalitarian governments been replaced with, and what do you think will be on their agenda?
    "Israel for the Israelis"?

    *Edit - What, exactly, has changed for Israel amid all this hype for the "Arab Spring"?
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2012
  8. p-brane Registered Senior Member

    Israel ended up not invading Gaza, so there`s really no point to this bias thread.
  9. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    It is now more risky to stick with the ~60 year old "make greater than 25 to one" high kill ratio policy. I certainly hope that there is no invasion, but have little faith that will be the case for even one month. I expect that for a few weeks of relative peace, the terroists will build up their supply of crude rockets. Perhaps Israel will allow destroyed electric power to be restored, etc.

    by edit: 30 minutes after I posted the above, Bloomberg posted:

    I added the bold. Note the direct kill ratio in the 12/2008 invasion was 86.4 to 1, but many more indirect kills were achieved via sewerage treatment plants* and water well pumps inoperative for more than a month.

    *raw sewerage flowed to the sea via some streets.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 23, 2012
  10. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

    CIWS is too short range, maxing out at 4.5 km in the horizontal and certainly shorter in the vertical. I've also been calling for Israel to up anti-missile defense for years so that it can "wall off" gaza and pretend the land is dead to them, let the Gazains do what ever they want, open borders with Egypt and the Sea, no more assassinations, no more power,water supplies to gaza, stop doing anything with at or for them and let them figure it out with Egypt and the Mediterranean. Sure they will get weapons but they get weapons already despite the blockade and border control between gaza and egypt. They are going to get weapons and launch them on occasion, they want the attention, they need the attention to keep getting aid, don't give them attention, shot down the rockets and rounds, minimize casualties on both sides.
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Good then we basically agree, but I have more than a dozen posts telling how this can be done, all more than 6 years old. If you read them you will see that I agree that CIWS (Close In WS) is too short a range to defend large areas, but even only one can be a last ditch defense system for towns near the Gaza border that are 3 or less km in radius. - That includes almost them all, I think, as you know in advance the direction the rocket will come from.

    For any larger cities, put several CIWS near the city in a row with over lapping fields of fire on the side nearest to Gaza. Israel surely has many older version of CIWS sitting in warehouses as they have been replaced with more modern version on Israeli ships and now are able to shoot down even super sonic sea skimmer threats to the ship. They would be more than adequate for these slow non-maneuvering rockets with no radar echos from waves making target discrimination by a doppler stage necessary.

    Also my old posts speak of using Israel´s existing artillery which has range of more than 20 km to hit the slow moving Gaza rockets near the top of their trajectory or slightly later as they gain speed in their fall towards Earth. Modern radars and computers will allow the location of their peak trajectory to been known many seconds more than the time of flight for an artillery shell from gun to that trajectory peak as the rocket flame out occurs significantly earlier. I.e. the crude unguided Gaza rocket is on a parabolic arc (except for a minor correction for the air resistance) prior to peak altitude more than enough time to known (not perfectly but quite accurately,) where that slow speed peak will be.

    In one of my old post, I noted that five decades of advance since the APL developed WWII "proximity fuse" artillery shell* for shooting down much higher speed and maneuvering Japanese HE loaded planes trying to dive onto US ships has been so great that the out going shell could even play the Jewish nations anthem as it flew out to an almost certain kill of the Gaza rocket. The "proximity fuse" artillery shell does not need to hit the rocket -only come close and "close" is farther away now. These "proximity fuse" artillery shells are not $90,000 dollar devices like the Iron Dome rockets are. They would not cost significantly more that the Gaza rockets, perhaps even less if produced in huge volumes.

    Solid state devices did not exist then. It had a single "ruggedized" small vacuum tube oscillator and near the target the frequency of oscillation slightly shifted to explode it. Now the out going shell could have short range radar and even a computer controlling tiny fins, like "smart bombs" have to make minor adjustments bringing it closer to the Gaza rocket. If the first planned intercept were a little before peak altitude there would be time for a second shot if it failed. If that too failed then the CIWS would be the third line of defense.

    * I doubt that even 1 in 500 Gaza rockets would escape destruction with a modern, radar-controlled, three layer defense. The US Navy was so grateful and impressed by APL that they have generously funded APL for last 60+ years, but the total cost of even that is much less than the cost of the capital ships APL saved in WWII. They paid me well for at least 20 of the 30 years I worked for APL.

    If Israel were to drop the current high-kill ratio policy and replace it with a "live and let live defensive" policy, and end the occupation, then in a few years that would lessen the bitterness many Palestinians have now.** Real peace could follow. This is Israel´s last chance. In the next major war if there is one a decade or more from now, the rockets and human infiltrators coming into Israel will be delivering lethal, air-born, infectious agents not HE with its very limited killing potential.

    ** All who were very angry that Jews were eating olives from the trees their grandfather had planted are now dead. Even most Palestinians give only "Lip Service" to the "right of return" demand now as most never lived in the land Israel has taken. Time (in peace) does heal all wounds.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 23, 2012
  12. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    RE: Arab Spring

    Egypt President Mohamed Morsi expands authority in power grab

    Oh, big surprise, the Egyptians have a new Dictator, and how long did it take?

    The lesson to learn from this example is this is what happens to a society when the State leaves no space for private institutions. And here's the kicker: No one knows how these private institutions arise as they happen organically - and once they're gone, they seem to be gone for good. They, not the government, are the bedrock of society. We're watching as the last of ours slip through our fingers. Which is why it's becoming easier and easier to demagogue the public.
  13. RealityCheck Banned Banned

    In your apparent anarchistic eagerness, to blame and condemn everything and everyone no matter what the reality is, you miss by a mile that the world is and has been IN TRANSITION; slowly and inexorably away from all sorts of divine right, tyrannical rule etc etc of the past, and towards all sorts of semi-democratic and fully democratic systems which are evolving even as we speak towards the ONLY system which will be sustainable in the longer term. That is fully democratic, secular societies based on common adherence to law and human rights which do not depend on the encumbent at any particular moment, but on the very institutions which you tout and which are even as we speak being slowly introduced into areas where tyranny was all they have ever known.

    TRANSITION is painfull. One has to be patient instead of hateful and scattergun anarchist with no positive contribution to offer that transition process which the world is in RIGHT NOW...and which is the trail end of the transitions which began (and faltered a few times) from the moment that Magna Carta was imposed on the 'divine right' kings/tyrants etc. The rest is history, painfull history advancing from that beginning of erosion of ABSOLUTE POWER to PEOPLE POWER which began with the Barons taking that first step (for themselves and not the people, yes, but the transition had begun there and then, and from that momentous act, had its own impetus once the absolute power system was broken, no matter the original intent of the Barons!).

    I hope and trust the transition period towards sustainable social/govt systems is nearing the end of its heretofore painful and slow trajectory begun so long ago and involving the suffering of many innocents as well as guilty along the way.

    Good luck to us all.
  14. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

    Billy T,

    Your absolutely right about the CIWS! It would work below iron dome at defending the towns closes to gaza, towns in range of mortar rounds, of course several hundred would be needed to cover all of Israel and it can only intercept targets that are in the final stage of flight just seconds from impact. While Israel already building ballistic missiles defense (Arrow), and mid to long range missiles defense (David's Swing) and short range missile defense (Iron Dome), they should also get a very short range mortar and rocket defense system that existing land based CIWS systems could provide. I wonder if that was used by the US as one of the reasons to not invade Gaza "Don't invade and we will give you some C-RAMS and help pay for more missile defense"
  15. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    I don't disagree that people are slowly, generational-slowly, changing the way they see the world. Social consciousness if you will. If we remain on tract then sometime in the far future we'll have a violence free anarchic society of voluntarism. The shit-hole that has become the USA (and into which AU is staring it's hellish transition) is just that slow 'painful' transition people have to go through to learn that State backed initiation of force is still, at the end of the day, the initiation of force. Like Communism and other immoral social structures people sometimes have to live it to learn it. When you look around at all the obese Type-II diabetes crushing your medical services (which means less real resources for things like education and museums) you can thank 'free' medical insurance. Without a monetary incentive (hell, money has no real meaning outside of me get me buy me get me buy memememmeme) people really don't care if they're abusing the system - I mean, hey, eating Mac-ers all day long keeps someone in a 'job' and the Gods only know working is the goal in life.
  16. The Marquis Only want the best for Nigel Valued Senior Member

    I'll ask you again. What, exactly, has changed for Israel after the much-hyped "Arab Spring"?
    Do you think attitudes toward Israel have changed at all on the part of the Arab nations? You know, after the ostensibly Muslim dictatorships have been replaced by ostensibly Muslim popular alternatives of one stripe or another?

    You're Israel. You're this little guy in crowded bar surrounded by huge guys who want you dead. The only advantage you have is that you have a gun, and they don't.
    One huge guy who wants you dead, pushed out of the way by another huge guy who wants you dead. What is the difference to you, exactly?

    The only real difference between Israel and the pro-"Arab Spring" mob is that Israel still knows exactly where they stand, and the other mob (non-involved observers from afar, mostly) rely on hope and idealism.

    The early American settlers often wandered into Indian land and built farms without any real knowledge of how they would affect things in the future.
    Does anyone really think they would put down their guns and stop defending themselves if someone told them they were actually intruding on Indian lands?
    The only thing they knew for sure is that they were trying to live.
    If an Indian tribe attacked, they were going to shoot them. They were going to shoot them so much that the Indian tribe thought twice before attacking again.
    Because they also knew that the Indians weren't going to sit down and understand that the settlers were only trying to make a living... they wanted them gone.

    And that's all.
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Sorry. I must not have noticed the first asking as I try to answer direct questions.

    What has changed with the "Arab Spring" is than now the US is less able (via gifts of money and military equipment to their dictators) to control the policy of nations like Egypt.

    I think it is premature to say Egypt has a new Muslim brotherhood dictator. That may turn out to be the case, but his self proclaim "Papal inability" expires when Egypt has a constitution. In the West little is said about why he made this proclamation. That is mainly because first post revolution / pre-election military government closed the constitutional convention, but that was only effective for only a few weeks - they couragously re-assembled against the wishes of the military with only 32 of the 100 members being from the Muslim Brotherhood party.

    The main effect of the proclamation is that the constitutional assembly cannot be closed again by the judiciary as it has tried to, but must produce a constitution and when it does, then the fairly elected presedent´s decree expires and Egypt will have a "three powers government." The judiciary is more than 90% "hold overs" from the old dictatorship and not at all happy with the idea of democratic rule.* Without this proclamation, it is highly probably they would try to close the constitutional convention again or rule that any constitution it produced was illegal.

    * Nor is the US if democracy is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. These judges are the very same judges than sent several thousand members of the Muslim Brotherhood to jail - they are probably in fear that they and some members of the old dictatorship who are still high up in the military will be brought to trail before a new judiciary and punished for their crimes against the Egyptian people.
  18. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Although text below did not exist when I wrote post 14, Bloomberg tells the same story, with two additions. (1) Why Morsi is urging speed in getting the new constitution written and voted on by the people. & (2) suggesting that it may not be as well done as if more time were taken to draft it (but bloomberg, like me, recoginces that the judicary would probably disolve the constitution assembly /committee or rule it illegal)

    Bloomberg did not speculate as I did that the reason why the Judicary (90% appointed by Mubaric) is so opposed to DEMOCRATIC constitional rule instead of military rule they were apointed under is that they fear a new Judiciary will convict them (and many still high up in the military) for the crimes they did or facilated under Mubaric against the Egyptian people. (Many were killed and thousands sent to jail for the "crime" of trying to get a democracy by ending Mubaric´s US supported dictatorship.)

    I agree with Bloomberg´s point (2) but having a not perfect constitution, approved in popular vote, which can later be amended, is much better than having none with all efforts at getting a constitution cancelled by the judicary, protecting is self and their long-term friends in the military.
  19. RoccoR Registered Senior Member

    Billy T, et al,

    When things are rushed like this, it usually means that the composers want something slipped through. They don't want too much discussion.


    This is all about maneuvering for power and influence. Don't think for a moment that Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi is some sort of Democratic Father of a reborn republic, he is not. The US needs to keep its distance and not get entangled. He is going to pull a fast one on the People of Egypt, and the court knows it.

    The US should stay out of it and let the card fall will they will. The people voted the Muslim Brotherhood in, let them work it; or suffer the consequences.

    Most Respectfully,
  20. Workaholic Registered Senior Member

    An interesting take on recent events in Gaza:

    "What Really Happened in Gaza" by NORMAN FINKELSTEIN


  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    You are more sure than I am about what will happen. I have slight optimism because Morsi´s said his special powers expire when the constitution is radified by the people and that quite possibly happens in less than three weeks. If his plan were to become Egypt´s new dictator, setting such a prompt distruction of his extrodinary power is very strange.*
    PS nice to see you take the trouble to make the latin post correctly - I´m to lazy.

    *It is even possible, he may do as G. Washington did. Reject the offers / suggestions to be king (or dictator in Morsi´s case).
  22. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Egypt´s draft constitution is done.
    It does say the basis for civil law is the principles of sharia, which is somewhat different than saying "is sharia law." I.e. that is much like saying the basis for civil law is the UN´s (or the US´s) principles of human rights and I understand "principles of sharia". For example usury may be forbidden, fair trials, a duty to aid the poor, etc.

    It is a little strange, given that Muslim are a higher percentage of Egypt´s population than Jews are of Isreal´s population (and about half the ethinic Jews are not religious) for US and others to complain that Egypt may have strong Muslim beliefs influencing the Egyptian government, when Israel is officially the Jewish state and non-Jews have many rights limited (where they can live, what public jobs they can hold, what schools their children can attend, etc.).

    * I also note that in Brazil you will at least get a stiff fine and can go to Jail for public racial insults. I hope the prohibited insults are of that nature because Arabs are world famous for their creative curses. For example: "May your sons be sterile and your daughters raped by dogs." One should also note that most non-Muslims walked out of the constitutional committees of their own free will. The Muslim Brotherhood had only 32 members of the 100 member body. However in fairness, it must also be noted that even before they walked out, Muslims were a large majority of the committee, as many different political parties were members.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 30, 2012
  23. The Marquis Only want the best for Nigel Valued Senior Member

    Why are the USA "less able" to control, for the sake of example, Egypt?
    Are they actually less able to do so, or are they less able to do so because popular opinion demands that they are?
    Reality has not changed. But the perception of it has.

    This is what you need to address. Not who is in power. Not what he says his policies are. Not what anyone is saying they will concede in the short term.
    Only reality.

    Look, I read all you had to say otherwise, and I've taken it all on board. But as far as Israel is concerned, rockets are still falling on them, every day.
    Not only that, but the UN has just recognised the right of Palestine to exist, so those rockets aren't just terrorist acts anymore, they're a legitimate response to aggression by a sovereign nation.
    Palestine now thinks they have a right to shoot at Israel, rather than feeling as though they're an oppressed outsider.

    This is the problem with the UN. They all think they're the smartest and most humanist souls on the face of the planet, and quite frankly they've just stirred up a hornets nest.
    It isn't Palestine which has just been recognised, but every Arab nation with a grievance against Israel.
    Do you think, for one second, that the USA was opposed to Palestinian recognition because of what Palestine can do to Israel?
    Palestine has never been the issue. Palestine has only ever been an indicator of where conventional thought stood with regard to Israels right to dominance of a region.

    Look at Africa. Same shit, no one cares. Why does anyone care about the middle east? because it has resources. And who has access to those resources?
    Well now, that's the standard question.
    And amongst the lefties, it has a standard answer.

    Ask yourself this, instead. Who does not?
    And who has the power to influence who does, if they do not?

    This marks a fundamental shift in thinking on the part of the UN. And Israel are going to suffer, one way or another... even if it means involuntarily giving up their only advantage in a sea of sworn enemies.

    Sciforums is quite the little microcosm. You just have to learn to recognise the parallels.
    Left, right, slightly sideways.... ain't this fun.

Share This Page