Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Yazata, Apr 12, 2017.

  1. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    If the Syrians (and their Iranian and millitia allies) manage to punch through and take Abu Duhur, they will be in range of their forces south of Aleppo and hence cutting the Idlib enclave in two.
     
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  3. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, on this map one can see that after taking Abu Duhur not that much remains on the other side:

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    But there are already more optimistic (or simply more actual) maps which present the Syrian forces already much closer to Abu Duhur:

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    and there have been already claims that they are in Abu Duhur, or have fire control over the airbase. But here I'm skeptical yet, I have some doubt that they give up such an easily defensible place (there have been around 300 fighters holding it three years) for nothing.
     
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  5. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    There have been the first claims that the Syrian army has taken the Abu Duhur airbase.

    Yesterday there has been the first news about some counteractions of joepistole's friends. In particular, it was claimed that they made a counterattack at the road Abu Duhur - Maarat al Numan, which was almost cut, but which they succeeded to secure. As a reaction, the Tiger forces have simply turned East and taken a lot of villages on the Eastern front. Then, during the day, they have taken all the villages South of Abu Duhur. The key was taking Tal Salmu, a nearby hill, which gives fire control over the airbase. In the evening, there appeared news that they have started to attack the airbase and later news that it has been taken. Other sources yet deny this, so that it is not yet completely clear.
     
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  7. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Here is a map about the supposed situation at Abu Duhur:

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    That would mean that the airbase has been taken and the fighting is in the town. On the other hand, there is information about a heavy counterattack in this region, with claims that some villages have been retaken. But nothing clear about the details. It looks like actually the airbase is under Syrian control, but the town is under Hatesh control. But other sources claim that even the airbase is yet under Hatesh, and all what the Syrian army has taken is the place on the map where "SAA" is written.

    Joepistole's friends started today some heavy counterattacks on the Western flank of the Syrian army. In particular, the villages Atshan - Hamdaniyah - Umm Harayatm - Tal Marq - Khuwayn (see map in #415 for their location) and some more have been taken. The Syrian army has already started a counterattack, and there are claims that the villages mentioned above have already been retaken. But there is also information that at some place (where Uigurs are fighting) not everything has been retaken.

    On the Eastern side, the Syrian army has advanced from Khanasser, and is now quite close to closing the pocket. As usual, they will wait until everybody who likes runs away.

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    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018 at 7:46 PM
  8. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    There seem to be attacks and counterattacks from both sides and the front line moves back and forth. The rebels seem to be putting a lot of effort into trying to resist the Syrian government forces at Abu Duhur and it's definitely a battle.

    I was going to make a post about that but you beat me to it.

    My guess is that most of the rebels have already left or are in the process of leaving that endangered area. Perhaps they are reinforcing the resistance near the town of Abu Duhur. One reason I hypothesize that the rebels have evacuated that area is that the small pocket of Daesh remnants (grey on your map) at its southern end are expanding north to fill what's probably become a power vacuum.


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    [/QUOTE]
     
  9. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Instead of closing the gap and encircling the pocket the Syrian army turned North, first to Tal Daman (a hill which controls a lot of areas around) and then along the road toward Aleppo. The road is claimed to be under full control of the government, the North-Eastern half-pocket ist claimed to be cleared. There may be some remains yet, but nothing relevant and endangering the Syrian forces. (Information that this region has been abandoned by joepistole's friends are already some days old):

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    The attacks yesterday from a lot of different non-Al-Qaida forces seems dead now, with the Syrian army today retaking the remaining two villages takes yesterday. Instead, today Hatesh (Al Qaida) has started an attack from the Western flank. Their media have claimed a lot of success, but the Syrian side (inclusive a lot of different trustable sources) claims that they have reached nothing.
     
  10. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    There has been another map claiming the North-Eastern part is completely under SAA control:

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    On the other hand, there is information about the Syrian army actually cleaning some more villages in this region. And this variant sounds much more plausible and repeats what has been done against Daesh: Taking control of the important roads and leave the clearing for later. So, both versions agree that the Khanaser-Tal Daman-Aleppo road is under control.

    The more interesting points on this map are the three villages East of the Abu Duhur airbase. This also follows the standard technique of the Tiger forces - if there is a powerful fortification, encircle it almost completely, but leave a way to go out.
     
  11. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Found a map with the imho more realistic picture of the North-Eastern part:

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    On the Western flank, the same situation as the last two days: Joepistole's friends attacking, their media wings making a lot of success claims without proofs, the Russian observers discussing which of the "sorts of shit" are attacking, based on information about the killed leaders. The impression is that now all those fighting against each other during the last months have made peace and now fight together but at separate places. Which is, of course, ideal for the defenders - attacks are dangerous if there is a concentrated power of the attackers, not if different parts attack at different places. (The last strategy makes sense only if there are not enough defenders to defend the whole frontline - but this is now a problem of joepistole's friends, not of the Syrian army.)
     
  12. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Yesterday joepistole's friends were more successful, taking a number of villages. One explanation was bad weather, which made the airforce less effective. But it is not clear what really has been taken. This map shows one variant:

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    Today there is already news about some villages being retaken again by the Syrian army.

    The Syrian army has continued advances West of Khanasir, so that the connection between the Eastern pocket and the main part of Idlib becomes smaller and smaller. It looks like they want to leave a connection (the usual technique of the Tigers) to motivate the remaining forces to run away, and, on the other hand, prepare for reaching the Abu Duhur base from the North-East direction. The Syrian army has also started now attacks against the ISIS pocket from the South-East direction and taken a few villages. On the other hand, ISIS itself attack in the Northern direction, taking a lot of villages which have been probably already left by joepistole's friends.
     

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