Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Yazata, Apr 12, 2017.

  1. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    The shrinking of the ISIS pocket continues with high speed:

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  3. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    The following map looks more realistic, because it shows advances from many different directions, and there has been indeed information about liberations of various villages coming from many different directions.

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    So this looks really like close to a collapse of the defenses of Daesh, so that one can expect that the pocket will be finished in short time.
     
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  5. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    US military commanders openly claim they've killed multiple Russian mercenaries and Iran-backed militiamen amongst the 100 or so it killed on Wednesday as they attempted to violate the de-escalation agreement Russia signed with the US.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42994235

    Looks like Russia will be sweeping this one under the rug rather than attempting an escalation it can't win. Maybe their soldiers just got drunk, lost their bearings and mistook east for west.
     
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  7. spidergoat Venued Serial Membership Valued Senior Member

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    You mean Assad? We find him guilty.
     
  8. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    The most plausible theory I have heard about this incident is the following: There was an agreement with the SDF, or the Kurds, that a particular oil field will be given to the Syrian army. Then there were some forces on the other side which did not accept this (what is named "SDF" is a large conglomerate of different forces, some Kurds, some Arab tribes, some ISIS fighters bought by the US to switch sides, whatever - so, all this is far from a unified force with a single center of command, if one ignores the US who pays for all this). The local Syrian forces nonetheless started to go and take the region. Then those who had disagreed started fighting and also called the coalition forces for air support. And they got it.

    Russia is not involved here - even if there were some Russian mercenaries (I have not seen yet reliable sources saying this), the point of using mercenaries for whatever is that whatever happens the state itself is not involved. (So, American mercenaries can cut the heads of children and distribute videos about this but so what, they are only mercenaries, and the US did not even stop to pay them.) The Russians don't sweep it under the rug but restrict themselves to diplomatic actions.

    The Daesh pocket is finished. ISIS has started to break out of the pocket, and has succeeded. Some map about this looked like this:

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    Many observers suggest that this breakout was fake, and in reality, there was an agreement to leave them out, and made fun of "teleportation" of ISIS:

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    But there has been information about a lot of injured Syrian fighters in Hama hospitals and picture of destroyed ISIS hardware on the way out. So, it is not completely implausible that this breakout was not faked. Whatever, the final picture of the whole game is now this:

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    However small, the ISIS pocket has a good chance to grow, because there are a lot of ISIS supporters among joepistole's friends in this region.
     
  9. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    4,093
    Dangerous developments with Israel. While Israel has repeated one of its many airforce attacks on Syrian territory, this time the Syrian air defense has seriously answered, and one Israeli F-16 has been shot down. Possibly, even more (this is at least what the Syrian side has claimed - a reasonable hypothesis could be some more have been damaged), but usually the Israelis do not admit such things, and here they have either decided to admit it or were forced to admit it because too many people have seen it. The Kurds have also shot down a Turkish helicopter.
     
  10. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,359
    as/re aid to terrorists:
    fyi
    WASHINGTON — The end came quickly for one of the costliest covert action programs in the history of the C.I.A.
    During a White House briefing early last month, the C.I.A. director, Mike Pompeo, recommended to President Trump that he shut down a four-year-old effort to arm and train Syrian rebels. The president swiftly ended the program.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/world/middleeast/cia-syria-rebel-arm-train-trump.html

    and:
    United States President Barack Obama has officially authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to assist anti-government rebels in Syria, according to a new report by the Reuters news agency. That the US Intelligence Community is operating on the side of the Syrian rebels has been known for quite some time. British media reported in as early as June of this year that American and other Western spy agencies were sharing intelligence with the Syrian Free Army. Later in the same month, The New York Timesrevealed that “a growing team” of CIA operatives was participating in a multinational effort to smuggle Turkish- and Saudi-supplied weapons into Syria for use by anti-government militias.
    https://intelnews.org/tag/presidential-finding/

    and:
    President Barack Obama has signed a secret order authorizing U.S. support for rebels seeking to depose Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government,
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...pport-for-syrian-rebels-idUSBRE8701OK20120802

    It would seem that a "presidential finding" is all that is necessary to commit an act of war on the soil of another country.
    Who is ultimately responsible for the hundreds of thousands of dead and millions who have fled their homes?
    "Your tax dollar at work"?
     
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  11. spidergoat Venued Serial Membership Valued Senior Member

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    The Assad regime and Russia.
     
  12. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Here is John Godfrey Saxe’s (1816-1887) version of Blind Men and the Elephant:

    It was six men of Indostan,
    To learning much inclined,
    Who went to see the Elephant
    (Though all of them were blind),
    That each by observation
    Might satisfy his mind.

    The First approach'd the Elephant,
    And happening to fall
    Against his broad and sturdy side,
    At once began to bawl:
    "God bless me! but the Elephant
    Is very like a wall!"

    The Second, feeling of the tusk,
    Cried, -"Ho! what have we here
    So very round and smooth and sharp?
    To me 'tis mighty clear,
    This wonder of an Elephant
    Is very like a spear!"

    The Third approach'd the animal,
    And happening to take
    The squirming trunk within his hands,
    Thus boldly up and spake:
    "I see," -quoth he- "the Elephant
    Is very like a snake!"

    The Fourth reached out an eager hand,
    And felt about the knee:
    "What most this wondrous beast is like
    Is mighty plain," -quoth he,-
    "'Tis clear enough the Elephant
    Is very like a tree!"

    The Fifth, who chanced to touch the ear,
    Said- "E'en the blindest man
    Can tell what this resembles most;
    Deny the fact who can,
    This marvel of an Elephant
    Is very like a fan!"

    The Sixth no sooner had begun
    About the beast to grope,
    Then, seizing on the swinging tail
    That fell within his scope,
    "I see," -quoth he,- "the Elephant
    Is very like a rope!"
    And so these men of Indostan
    Disputed loud and long,
    Each in his own opinion
    Exceeding stiff and strong,
    Though each was partly in the right,
    And all were in the wrong!

    ............................
    In some versions, the blind men then discover their disagreements, suspect the others to be not telling the truth and come to blows.
     
  13. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    27,107
    Yep. That's been the case legally since 2002.
    The US, specifically W& Cheney's administration. (Arbitrary, of course, but the only plausible beginning or "ultimate" cause incurring responsibility here would be the conquering of Iraq by the US in 2003 and the manner of attempted governance - the rest has followed).

    There was also a bad drought. Still is. And a great deal of Russian perfidy.
    Is there a version where they get into fights with sighted people who attempt to explain things to them?
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2018
  14. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    Not a single mention on rt.com about the scores of elite Russian forces killed after attempting to attack American forces in Syria. Just shows you that even in Russia those assholes were considered insignificant trash, musta been sent to die on purpose.
     
  15. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    4,093
    A majority of Russian observers considers this as fake news. Once the journalists of RT think similarly, they should not publish it. By publishing fake news, RT would discredit itself.
    PS: There are now already some almost official reactions https://ria.ru/syria/20180214/1514588728.html (in Russian) and https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/kremlin-urges-media-not-rely-misinformation-developments-syria/ also claims that it is fake news.
     
  16. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    Who gives a shit if professional Russian news fakers label someone else's report as fake news? I mean other than Russians, and degenerates who failed to make themselves relevant in western society, who else gives a flying feck?

    The reports are coming from the families and friends of the Russian elite forces who just died for nothing. Since you don't want to claim the bodies, perhaps they ought to be sent either to a nearby landfill, or recycled for Vodka-flavoured dog food.
     
  17. Vociferous Registered Senior Member

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    648
    I heard that the Israeli response wiped out half the Syrian air force in about an hour.
    Interesting, since Obama couldn't do anything but wait for Putin to take care of the Syrian chemical weapons.
     
  18. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    4,093
    They are coming from people who have, in the past when there was fighting in the Donbass, copypasted the list of players of some soccer team and named them dead speznas fighters. The usual pro-Western sources, which are trusted by those who vote for Nawalny, and nobody else cares.

    No, they claim only half of the Syrian air defense. And nobody in Russia cares about this. (This is what they have to claim to the public after the jet was downed, and the Israeli are not known for accurate information about such things. According to the Syrian side, there was not even a second attack. The video material presented as proof of that destruction - which is what the sources I use care about - was not much.)

    BTW, I don't care what you believe - all I do is to give you information about what the other side claims. If you prefer to believe Bloomberg, your choice.
     
  19. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,359
    Where and from whom did you "hear" this nonsense?
     
  20. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    They come from people like Igor Strelkin, a national folk hero in Russia who commanded Russian mercenaries fighting in Georgia and later Ukraine. Some of these people might be slightly exaggerating Russian casualties to get the country riled up and pressure Putin into retaliating, but you can tell that Russia definitely took a huge hit based on the rage expressed by their troll army across the web, and the way those trolls celebrate the loss of a single Israeli fighter jet as if it was the liberation of Leningrad.

    BTW if Israel wants to wipe out half or more of Syria's air defenses, there's really nothing in the way to stop it. Air defenses and radars are a cinch, they stick out like sore thumbs and are normally the first targets in an air campaign, but Israel hadn't been systematically targeting them until now. Russia can only hold Israel back when it's able to simultaneously address Israel's security concerns, otherwise in terms of regional forces the IDF is many times bigger than the small Russian presence next door, and it theoretically has more than enough nukes to take the commies down with it if they want to go that route.
     
  21. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,359
    From what I've read, it seems that this was a rogue operation by merc.s of the Wagner group, and that no ground combat happened----just an exchange of artillery, and then US warplanes and -----

    ...................................
    based on my experience in Nam where the stated goal was to "atrit" the enemy-----when the air force estimated the dead, they grossly over estimated their effectiveness.
     
  22. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    5,784
    Well the Viet Cong claim they took 3 million casualties in that war compared to 50,000 for the US, so I wouldn't doubt the effectiveness of the US air force there, only the US's estimation of North Vietnam's willingness to sacrifice to the bitter end.

    Correction to my previous post, the source I named is Igor Strelkov, not Strelkin.
     
  23. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    4,093
    Strelkow was a national hero when he started the fighting in the Donbass against the Ukrainian fascists. Then he came back to Russia after this, he ended up in a quite dubious environment. I have considered him reliable at that time but stopped to trust him during the time of the Debalzewo operation in the Donbass war. At that time he was already out of the Donbass, but I thought he had yet enough inside information. But, not, all his predictions failed. In fact, in some other company, he could have become an important political player, but he failed. I would not think that he openly lies, I think he honestly believes this information.

    The point of the Israeli fighter was not that it was successfully shot down - but that Moscow has given the ok for shooting it. http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2018/02/12/israel-gets-bloody-nose-in-syria-what-next/ gives a nice summary what it is about. This was prepared step by step before, Israel could have understood that this will be the next step, but did not want to understand, now they have, maybe, understood the point.
    Feel free to believe this. We will see. There were over 100 such Israeli attacks per year, so, we will learn in short time if something has changed or not.

    My guess is that Israel will not stop everything, but restrict itself to less dangerous things - cruise missiles from Golan Heights or rockets shot from planes over Lebanon, where they feel yet safe. This will be accepted by Russia for some time, but not forever.

    Forget about Israel attacking the Russian airbase. Even more, forget about nukes, they will certainly not be used against Russians, the retaliation would be the end of Israel with certainty. Of course, Russia takes into account Israeli interests.

    The more dangerous thing is actually the increasingly irrational behavior of the US. Looks like the warmongers have won and taken over the White House, there are some signs that one has to expect escalation toward a new Cold War. The US attacks against the Syrian troops are one such sign. The revival of the last hospitals and the gas attacks propaganda another. So I'm not optimistic about near future.

    In Northern Syria, the Turks slowly advance from several sides toward Afrin.

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