Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Yazata, Apr 12, 2017.

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  1. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    So, the official information that Seraqib is under SAA control has appeared. Given that before this it has been encircled completely, the village Afes North of it and a very small village on the road to Idlib have been taken before too.

    The remaining part of the M5 from Seraqib in the South West to Aleppo in the North East can be seen here:

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    To gain complete control over this road will be one of the aims to be reached during the next time.

    The three villages in white circles are those villages which had been taken by Hatesh in the counterattack a few days ago. Today they are deliberately again in control of the Syrian forces.
     
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  3. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Schmelzer:

    This thread is rapidly turning into your private Russian propaganda blog.

    Probably you'll find more people who interested in the day-to-day battle details of Russian and Syrian forces on a different site. This stuff isn't really what sciforums is about. We're a discussion forum.
     
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  5. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    There is certainly no rapid turning into something. I have given similar information about the actual situation in Syria from the start almost three years ago, and even before in other threads. I know that many people read this thread, you can see it too, looking at the various participants during the years.

    It is, of course, the right of the adminstration to censor whatever information they no longer want to see.

    PS: Actually, there is serious fighting in the area East of the M5, with claims that Zarbah, Zaytan and Birnah have been taken by the Syrian army, that they are actually attacking Al Eis, and that in the Southern part Huwayr has been taken.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
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  7. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    I'm not seeing a lot of discussion here, Schmelzer. Just you blogging the Russian maps and reporting on how the Syrian and Russian troops are getting on.

    Why not just link to whatever your source is for these things? They look like they probably come from a single source. If people are interested they can go an look there, instead. There's no need to duplicate whatever site you're using.
     
  8. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Who runs the "Islamic World News" site that you keep taking material from, Schmelzer?
     
  9. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Sorry, but only a few of them are Russian maps. I report what changes. If it is the Syrian troops who advance, I report it. If the terrorists advance, I report it too. There are essentially no Russian troops - there is Russian airforce, and there is Russian support by specialists, Russian soldiers doing tests of various new Russian weapons, Russian instructors, and Russian military police, but no Russian troops. The military police is usually doing things like doing some initial police support if there has been some peace agreement with forces who don't trust the Syrian army, but accept the Russians. Which are, in their majority, not Russians, but from Muslim parts of Russia.
    Too much work, last but not least confirmed news are news supported by several sources and based on the reputation of the sources. Moreover, I see no point here to link sources in Russian or Arabic language, which are quite common in this field.
    Look at the very different colors of different maps. Different colors means different sources. Of course, the background is usually the same, from google.maps, open to everybody. There is not a single source which I duplicate. Once you have asked about iswnews.com, I will take the map today from that site, with link to the article:

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    Moreover, it is indeed the best map I have seen today. We see yesterday again a quite large advance. There is information that the terrorists are already in the process of leaving the entire region East of the M5.
     
  10. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Most of those hits come from your Kremlin paymasters, also people like me checking in just to see if something worthwhile is being discussed. Plus you only give information that's favourable to hardline Putin supporters such as yourself while neglecting and summarily dismissing everything else without justification.

    They're not censoring information, just paid Kremlin propaganda. At least they haven't shot you to death across the street from the Reichstag, even though it would likely be in Germany's national security interests to do so.

    All of the maps are maps the Russian government specifically wants everyone to see.

    You only report on a fraction of rebel advances, the ones that are quickly halted and reversed. The fact that you summarily label everyone opposed to Assad as terrorist is telling, given that nearly all the civilian deaths in the conflict are documented as being caused by the Assad regime (unless you find it plausible that bombing and shelling populated areas around the clock for 7 years doesn't cause significant casualties).

    Hmmm am I going to believe some random unbathed liar who spends all day monitoring this site for challenges to his propaganda, or should I believe folks like Igor Strelkin, one of the most respected military officers in Russia, who says 300 of his neanderthal buddies were sacrificed for American target practice? Russia has troops on the frontlines and they're taking casualties all the time, albeit not enough to stop the war effort since Russian lives are cheap both by western and Russian standards. No shortage of grade 6 dropouts ready to be rushed to the front, don't kid yourself.

    Where do you get your figures for Muslim vs non-Muslim Russians serving in Syria?

    How about you demonstrate why Kremlin news agencies should be considered reputable first before you spam their trash here? Also this is a discussion forum, not a place to puff yourself up talking about how awesome your cousins are and how weak and pathetic those dome-headed Yankees and Jews are by comparison. Where's the discussion? Who specifically wants to know about the outhouse Syrian troops captured last night and what is it they wish to discuss about this outhouse? What effect is this "information" intended to have on the audience?

    Look, I eat sausage on bun and cheer for local baseball team, I am not Russian troll!
     
  11. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    News today that the Turks sent a large military convoy including tanks and armored vehicles into Syria's Idlib governate yesterday.



    https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...rts-of-counter-offensive-against-syrian-army/

    Al Masdar says: "The reports claim the Turkish army, along with their militant allies from the National Liberation Front, are planning to drive the Syrian army back towards the deescalation zone that was agreed upon in Sochi.

    If true, this would mark the first time during the Syrian conflict that the Turkish army has taken the offensive against the Syrian armed forces."

    Edit: Apparently this isn't the first Turkish military convoy that's entered Idlib. So Turkey is clearly building up its forces. I expect them to move to positions east of Idlib city, to prevent the Syrian army from taking that important place.

    The thing is, if Turkey really plans to fight the Syrian army in Idlib, they will need control of the air. And that means confronting the Russians. Turkey has a large and reasonably competent air force and if Russia is to confront them, Moscow will need far stronger forces in Syria than they currently have. That would run the risk of becoming a full-scale war.

    The Russians have been trying to improve relations with Turkey for some time, given Turkey's recent estrangement from the United States. Russia hopes to pry Turkey away from NATO and turn them into a Russian ally. So they don't want to force Turkey back into America's arms.

    Turkey's a much bigger prize for Moscow than Syria is. I expect that the Russians want to continue their effective protectorate in Syria though. A conflict between Ankara and Damascus would force Russia to take sides and I don't think that Russia wants to do that.

    So I expect that Ankara is wagering that Russia will tell Assad to back off. If Syria doesn't, Turkey will fight and they are probably hoping Russia would choose not to fight the Turks in the skies over Idlib, stand down and let Assad carry the load himself. (He'd almost certainly lose, provided the Turks were willing to send in enough forces.)


    b g
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2020
  12. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Well Turkey already fought a few skirmishes with Assad during the early years of the war, but I guess this is the ADHD media era, so...

    In any case, how come Schmelzer's informative maps don't contain any info about these developments?
     
  13. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    I have no reason to think that the maps aren't accurate. The maps show Syrian army gains and Schmelzer is obviously pleased. Others not so much. Other news sources report the gains too, but without the fascinating maps that put it all in better perspective. (I like maps that illustrate the actual situation on the ground.)

    https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/syrian-troops-gain-territory-push-control-key-highway

    This latest army convoy with its armored vehicles only happened yesterday. There hasn't been direct significant-scale Turkey-Syria combat yet. There have been some Turkish observation outposts encircled by the Syrian army and I believe that Schmelzer has written about that.

    The Turkish buildup is clearly important. Apparently the latest batch brings it to more than 1,000 military vehicles. Including main-battle tanks and lots of smaller armored vehicles. It's at least a division sized force.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2020
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  14. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    News today that the Turks sent a large military convoy including tanks and armored vehicles into Syria's Idlib governate - in obvious violation of international law- yesterday.

    gee darn
     
  15. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Does international law say that an unelected dictator is allowed to invite foreign sectarian militants and a foreign air force to come bomb his own citizens?

    I take it you oppose Donald Trump's cozying up to the Turkish leadership and his accession to their extortion. Who's to blame for Donald Trump making such decisions?
     
  16. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Almost. First of all, the international law does not make any differences between elected and unelected rulers. Then, international law does not restrict the right to invite into the own territory. In no way. This is named sovereignty. Bombing the own territory, if necessary to fight terrorists, rebels, or whatever military forces opposing their own military. Simply bombing own citizens is the only thing which is restricted, given R2P, this would allow the UN to start some action following an UNSC resolution. But this is irrelevant here because it exists only in Western propaganda fantasies. As long as there are some military forces opposing the government forces in the bombed region, everything is in agreement with international law. Which is natural, the US would oppose anything which restricts its right to bomb whole regions without caring about the population.
    I mention the Turkish observation points when they appear in the region of actual fighting. I have mentioned the encirclement of such observation points several time. Officially, all those convoys support only those observation points, or create some new ones.

    Up to now, this is in my opinion mainly political show by Erdogan. In those regions, you have to present yourself as strong to be taken seriously. From a military point of view, the observation points have not played any role. The Syrian forces have simply gone around them and encircled them.

    Actually, this has been done with the observation point in Al Eis:

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    The point has been encircled by now too.

    You are free to distribute the information you think is accurate. (Like the one that the Syrian army is able to fight only minor border skirmishes

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    .) In fact, the actual maps do not need much justification simply because there is not that much disagreement about the actual frontline. I try to restrict myself to information which can be checked.
    I have not said there is any actual censorship. I have simply mentioned that the admins have, of course, the right to censor here whatever they like to censor.
    LOL, as CptBork has been told by his sources in the Kremlin. As if the Russian government would care about such things.
    There have been others during the last years? If you get information about such "rebel advances", you are invited to give the information about them here.
    I name those terrorists who are either Al Qaida (also named Al Nusra, Hatesh) themselves, or fight together and in coordination with them. This is in full agreement with the UN lists of terror organizations. I have never named the YPG/SDF terrorists, even if Erdogan names them this way, and even if they cooperate against the government with an external occupying force, the US.
    These are your propaganda fantasies. There is no bombing and shelling of populated areas around the clock for 7 years. There are airstrikes against reconnoitered objects, and there is intense bombing near the frontline. Such bombing near the frontline is completely harmless given that the civilian population leaves these regions if the frontline moves in their direction, and come back after this. The big towns have been taken in a particular way which minimizes harm for the population too - they are almost completely encircled, then usually left by the terrorists without fighting.

    The US has used other techniques in Mossul and Raqqa. Namely, carpet bombing of the towns themselves.
    Feel free to believe whatever you like, beyond the standard CIA propaganda. Nobody cares.
    From Russian sources you will certainly not accept as reliable sources. Quite officially, such military police units often come in particular from Chechnya, Kadyrov is very engaged in Syria.
    This is not how information works. If you want only sources which are "reputable" according to your criteria, ignore the information I give here. Feel free to believe the "rebels" make a lot of great advances which I don't report, and believe that all the Syrian army is able to do are minor border skirmishes.
    I cannot start discussions alone. All I can do alone is to provide information. Feel free to discuss whatever you like about the military events in Syrian and Iraq.
    Syria was and remains the place on Earth where the two greatest military players US and Russia as well as some other big and important ones, Iran, Turkey and Israel, are directly involved on different sides of the battle line. If something goes completely wrong there, even a world war could be the result. Therefore I think it is important enough to follow the details. If you don't think so, ignore this thread.

    There are also a lot of speculative political questions worth to be discussed, like the Turkish intentions, which are far from clear. I would expect another ceasefire during the next time. Erdogan has made some ultimatums, where he gives Assad time up to the end of February to fulfill his wishes. Erdogan's wishes are, of course, completely off. But if this ultimatum ends with some ceasefire at the end of February, this would be good enough for him. Are there indications in this direction? Yes, there are. And the development of the frontline is an indication. Namely, after the liberation of Seraqib it would have been, from a military point of view, more reasonable to encircle Idlib itself. Instead, they now move along the M5 toward Aleppo.
     
  17. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Nothing new in Syria - the advances along the M5 continue with the same temp, so this phase will end in a few days:

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    If one looks at the distances, one could even guess tomorrow, but advances in an agricultural area are quite different, and much easier, than advances in suburbs, and so what remains becomes more and more difficult. Moreover, at the very end of the way there is Rashidin 4, which is essentially a fortress of the terrorists. There have been already many attempts to storm it without success. So, a small hill South-West of it which has been taken today too (but this advance is not shown on the map) may be, in fact, more important that the large territorial gains shown on the map.

    Now some information which, I think, Russia is really interested to distribute:

    So, the IDF hides behind civilian airplanes. And after this have to decline to comment, because the facts are too obvious - the flight plans are public, the time of the attack is well-known too. Probably they have even hoped that the Syrians will shut down the airplane, to start yet another propaganda campaign.
     
  18. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Why does Russian radar have trouble telling the difference between F-16's and passenger planes? How are these drunkards claiming the ability to identify stealth planes if they can't even get their own fingers out of their asses? Anyhow the "information" you post is once again false and incomplete, because it says nothing about the weapons shipments Iran sends to Hezbollah via the Damascus International Airport on civilian planes.
     
  19. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    I was wondering that too. They call themselves "independent journalists" but they definitely have a line.

    https://english.iswnews.com/

    They could be pro-Assad Syrian, but many/most of their stories seem to have an Iranian angle. Iran? IRGC? Hezbollah?

    The 'iswnews.com' url is anonymously registered through a domain registration company in San Leandro California (next to Oakland). So WHOIS isn't much help in telling us who they are.

    It's clear that they don't like the United States or Israel.

    I do like their maps though and believe that they are generally accurate regarding actual events on the ground, which are the objective facts of the matter after all.

    I'd pay ISWN little attention when it comes to how actual events fit into a bigger geopolitical picture or who or what is good or evil. Those are no longer objective matters of fact and instead are matters of interpretation. And I simply don't respect Islamic World News' judgment in that regard.

    (I'd have to say the same thing about almost everyone who posts to Sciforums too when they try to spin and interpret events. I trust my own judgment in those matters far more than I trust theirs.)

    So I'll pay ISWNews some heed when it comes to objective facts about actual military movements on the ground (especially when other news outlets are reporting roughly the same thing), but not beyond that when it comes to politics, interpretation and spin.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2020
  20. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    They had no problems to see the Israeli gang hinding behind the civilian plane. And that's why nothing happened.

    Thanks for confirming that you have no problem with the Israeli cowards hiding behind civilian airplanes. Given that the inaccuracies of such guys usually are in direction of their wishes, it is also reasonable to guess that CptBork would have liked it very much if the Russian radar would have had problems telling the difference, and, as the result, the plane would have been shot down, allowing him to distribute here again his fascist anti-Russian hatred.
    Preparing excuses for Israelis shooting down a civilian airplane?

    Of course, Iran sends weapons to Hizbollah, which is part of the government in Lebanon, so, there is not much difference between sending weapons to Hizbollah and sending them to the Lebanon government. BTW, I don't remember when, but I have written something about Israel bombing Syrian using the excuse of attacking not Syrian forces, but Iranian weapon deliveries to Hizbollah, and Russia accepting this accuse and not caring about such attacks. I would guess when the Syrians have shot one of those Israeli warplanes over Syria. After this, they don't enter Syrian airspace, but shoot only rockets and missiles. And Syria up to now refrains from attacking such planes on Israeli or Lebanon territory, even if they have any right to do this once they have shot missiles. We will see how long this lasts.

    That's why I like their maps too, they are very accurate, if they mark something as being taken, it is certainly confirmed. Of course, it follows that sometimes they are too pessimistic.
    Full agreement. To be honest, I have not paid to anything else beyond the maps up to now at all. Interpretation and spin here are either my own or from other sources.

    PS: I see they have confirmed Tal Kaleriya - the hill South-West of Rashidin 4 - now too:

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    And they found it important enough for a separate map.

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    (This illustrates the "sometimes too pessimistic" too - the "journalist housing" was claimed to be taken by the Syrian army, and AFAIR this has been confirmed and found on many maps. Here not. I'm not sure who is right here, but that they prefer to err on the side of being too pessimistic is clear. (Ok, for CptBork this means, of course, too optimistic.))
     
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