Reality is stranger than we think

Discussion in 'UFOs, Ghosts and Monsters' started by Magical Realist, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. Boris2 Valued Senior Member

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    1,106
    i guess that would depend on how many lightning storms he was in and the level of risk he was exposed to in each case.
     
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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Probably one in a billion.
     
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  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    True for dice, not true for people.
     
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  7. Boris2 Valued Senior Member

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    see my answer above why it is in this case. each event is unique and so are the odds. unless of course the lightning remembers its victim.
     
  8. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    I once had an amazing coincidence occur to me once. I was sitting looking up a word in my dictionary. At the point that my eyes landed on the name of some obscure city in Puerto Rico in my open dictionary, one I had never even heard of, the TV says the name of that city! This is an example of synchronicity btw, a principle Carl Jung proposed to explain such events. Here's a brief article on it:

    "The occurrence of coincidences have intrigued, baffled and fascinated man since ancient times. Why do random but meaningful events happen with no apparent cause? They certainly pose a big challenge to modern science.

    Whereas the ancient Greeks, at least, had an explanation for coincidences by regarding them as an intervention from the gods, modern scientific and rational man has no such convenient explanation. And so the growing occurrence of coincidences has remained an unexplained phenomenon for him, for no scientific theory could account for them.

    It is true that most coincidences are trivial or inconsequential, but they never fail to baffle those who experience them. The following examples will serve to illustrate these types of coincidences:

    1. A young nurse named Jean Vianney assisted my wife Yolanda and me during the recent 56th graduation ceremonies in Marinduque State College. When she went home, she was struck by the coincidence that her parents are also named Jaime and Yolanda, and that we have a granddaughter named Jean.

    2. A German housewife discovers a ring she lost 40 years before—inside a potato! There have been stories of valuable objects being found inside the stomach of a fish the person has caught, but inside a potato? First time I heard of such an incident.

    3. Several office workers were chasing a fly around the office and swatting it with rolled up magazines, when the fly landed on the open pages of a heavy dictionary. Somebody simply slammed it shut. When the dictionary was opened, the people saw with astonishment that the ill-fated insect had smashed against the word “housefly.”

    Dismissed

    The above examples are one-time events that could easily be dismissed as random chance, with no significant meaning. But what about the following case of repeated coincidences that defies logic?

    “On December 5, 1664, the date of the greatest series of coincidences in history occurred. On this date, a ship in the Menai Straight, off North Wales, sank with 81 passengers aboard. There was one survivor—a man named Hugh Williams. On the same date in 1785, a ship sank with 60 passengers aboard. There was one survivor—a man named Hugh Williams. On the very same date in 1860, a ship sank with 25 passengers onboard. There was one survivor—a man named Hugh Williams.”

    The second and third examples above were taken from a fascinating book by Phil Cousineau called “Soul Moments: Marvelous Stories of Meaningful Coincidences from a Seemingly Random World.”

    In 1973, Arthur Koestler, a prolific former correspondent and later a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study at Stanford University, published “The Roots of Coincidence,” where he brilliantly synthesized the existing literature related to coincidence in such diverse fields as religion, psychology, modern physics and philosophy.

    These books, as well as a most influential scientific research on the subject by the great psychologist, Carl Jung, speak of the existence of noncausal reality—noncausal only from the point of view of rationalist science, but not from the mystical and nonrational point of view.

    There is order in a seemingly disorderly universe that is beyond current paradigms of modern science to explain. There cannot be a noncausal event. There can only be our own inability to recognize the underlying causes. Coincidences are called “Soul Moments” by Cousineau and synchronicity by Carl Jung.."

    Read more: http://lifestyle.inquirer.net/48101/coincidences-a-challenge-to-science#ixzz33rfLV3DD
    Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook
     
  9. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    Coincidences between the Earth and the Moon:

    "Have you ever wondered why the Moon appears to fit precisely over the Sun during an eclipse? The Moon is 400 times smaller than the Sun, yet it's also 1/400th of the distance between the Earth and the Sun.

    Isaac Asimov described this as being 'the most unlikely coincidence imaginable'.

    The sizes of the Moon and Earth also relate as 3 to 11 (99.9%).

    The sum of the radii of both the Earth and Moon (in miles) is 3960 + 1080 = 5040. This means that the sum of their diameters is also the number of minutes in a week (7 days × 24 hours × 60 minutes = 10,080).


    The ratio of the radius of the moon and the radius of the earth is 1080/3960, which simplifies to 3/11. This ratio can also be expressed as (4 - π)/π, when using 22/7 as the value of π. The sizes of the earth and the moon are related by a simple function of π.

    The sum of their radii in miles is 5040, which when divided by 14 is 360 (the number of degrees in a circle). This would not happen for another pair of objects with radii in the same ratio—it only happens when the sum of their radii is 5040.

    If you draw down the Moon to the Earth, then a circle through the center of the Moon will have a circumference equal to the perimeter of an earthly square enclosing the Earth.

    The sizes of the Moon and the Earth “square” the circle. The ancients seem to have known about this, and hidden it in the definition of the mile.

    Radius of the Moon = 1080 miles = 3 x 360

    Radius of the Earth = 3960 miles = 11 x 360

    Radius of Earth + Radius of Moon = 5040 miles = 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 = 7 x 8 x 9 x 10

    Diameter of Earth = 7930 miles = 8 x 9 x 10 x 11

    There are 5280 feet in a mile = (10 x 11 x 12 x 13) – (9 x 10 x 11 x 12)
     
  10. spidergoat pubic diorama Valued Senior Member

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    Not really. Dawkins did a find job explaining it in his book, "Climbing Mount Improbable". Just because something is unlikely doesn't mean it won't happen.
     
  11. origin Heading towards oblivion Valued Senior Member

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    ooooohhhhh, numerology that is always a fun woo-woo distraction.
     
  12. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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  13. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    I think this thread is solid proof that highly improbable events DO happen and probably more often that we know. That however does not mean they WILL happen.
     
  14. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    As far as we know, he is the man most struck by lightning, so it could be 7 Billion to one or more.
    If you had data on how many people have been struck 3, 4, 5, and 6 times, that would help.

    According to Ripley's believe it or not, this man has been hit four times in six months,
    and his doctor has prescribed burial in the earth. (Witch Doctor, that is)
    http://www.ripleys.com/weird/daily-...ning-4-times-buries-himself-alive-for-safety/
     
  15. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    No. But this particular victim likes to spend time in watch towers. This makes him much more likely than average to be hit by lightning. And since this guy gets hit pretty often, it is likely something he does (perhaps without even realizing it) also increases his odds. Does he cower in the corner when lighting comes for example? That will increase his odds since lighting follows the structure.

    Simple example. Let's say your odds of getting in an accident involving drunk driving are 1500 to 1 for an average person. So if you are really average your odds are 1 in 1500.
    Now let's say you get drunk all the time and have already been involved in two drunk driving accidents. Think your odds of getting in a third accident are still 1 in 1500?
     
  16. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    21,635
    Good summary. Yes, highly improbable things will happen on occasion, primarily because there are so many opportunities for them to happen.
     
  17. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    Except for the fact that he was only struck once NEAR a watch tower, and that was when he was running from it. All other times had nothing to do with a watch tower.
     
  18. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    "The first documented lightning strike of Sullivan occurred in April 1942. He was hiding from a thunderstorm in a fire lookout tower."
    "In 1972, Sullivan was working inside a ranger station in Shenandoah National Park when another strike occurred."

    In this case, someone who works outside and frequents mountain ranger stations and towers is going to be at greater risk. Had he taken a job as an accountant after the first strike his odds would have gone down dramatically.
     
  19. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    Nice editing job. He wasn't IN the tower when he got struck. "Sullivan ran out and just a few feet away received what he considered to be his worst lightning strike."

    He wasn't in a tower. He was at the station, which has a restroom and which is the faucet he used to put out the fire.

    Actually where he was at the time of the strikes is more important that just working outside or in towers. And as we know, there was only one strike near a tower, which didn't even have a lightning rod. All other places had nothing whatsoever to do with a tower.
     
  20. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    21,635
    Agreed. And as a park ranger he was in locations more likely to be hit by lighting. Which brings his odds from the one-in-quadrillions down into the one-in-billions.
     
  21. spidergoat pubic diorama Valued Senior Member

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    If they happen more often than we know, then they aren't so improbable, are they? How do you know how improbable they are?
     
  22. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    The locations he was located at are relevant because they show the huge improbability of the strikes. INSIDE the ranger station? Driving his truck? His own front yard getting his mail? Fishing at a pond? Nothing about these locations make being struck more probable, and certainly not to the same man.
     
  23. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    Something is making them happen, against all the odds of them not happening. An ordering factor that we have yet to discover.
     

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