SARS CoV-2(covid_19) & Vaccine Resistance excalating

Discussion in 'Free Thoughts' started by RainbowSingularity, Feb 28, 2021.

  1. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    6,137
    looking at the CNN data
    https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2021/health/global-covid-vaccinations/index.html

    it appears there is some refinements needed
    which doses are 2 dose ?
    which doses are 1 dose ?

    https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1530/


    several things
    is it a 1 dose or a 2 dose vaccine ?
    have people got their 2nd dose yet of the 2 dose vaccine ?
    what are the efficacy(protection %) rates of the different vaccines ?

    what is the supply side looking like ?
    is there enough to complete vaccinations in which country's by when ?

    will herd immunity be reached(where by whom) ?
    if so by when and where/which country's and will the virus be too wide spread to reach that level of eradication ?
    as it mutates, will vaccination science be able to keep up with the new variants ?
    will production & distribution be able to keep up ?
    obviously(?) its going to require printing money
     
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  3. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Pfizer and Astra/Zeneca - 2 dose
    Johnson and Johnson - 1 dose
    Many have, yes.

    90%+ for the mRNA vaccines, 66% for the conventional (1 dose) vaccine.
    At current rates, about 5 months.
    In about 4 months.
     
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  7. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    which country are you talking about ?
     
  8. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    USA.
     
  9. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    0 % chance of that reality !


    which government employee is making that statement ?

    (did i miss something in the news somewhere?)

    or is that your personal opinion ?

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    what i am currently following vaguely is what i wonder, "IF"
    the new strains are becoming un detectable to current Covid testing prior to some symptomatic stage

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2021
  10. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    19,500
    None. That's me, going by math.
     
  11. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    6,137
    ok
    so running the math
    [originally before it was being studied by mainstream science organizations]
    herd immunity is 70% population vaccination ?(so i thought from reading some material around scientists opinions of SAR'S CoV-2 )

    which scientific research institutes do you consider to be legitimate ?


    World Health Organization
    https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19


    Mayo Clinic
    (call me biased if you like but i really like the Mayo Clinic information, i feel like i can trust it 100% to use as a platform to base then work off further)

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808



    wiki herd immunity page
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

    Estimated R0 and HITs (herd immunity threshold) of well-known infectious diseases[52]
    Disease Transmission R0 HIT
    Measles Airborne 12–18 92–95%
    Pertussis Airborne droplet 12–17[53] 92–94%
    Diphtheria Saliva 6–7 83–86%
    Rubella Airborne droplet
    Smallpox 5–7 80–86%
    Polio Fecal-oral route
    Mumps Airborne droplet 4–7 75–86%
    *COVID-19
    (COVID-19 pandemic)
    2.5–4[54][55] 60–75%
    SARS
    (2002–2004 SARS outbreak) 2–5[56] 50–80%
    Ebola
    (Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa) Bodily fluids 1.5–2.5[57] 33–60%
    Influenza
    (influenza pandemics)Airborne droplet1.5–1.8[53]33–44%
     
  12. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    6,137
    i can understand the W.H.O may be wishing to hedge their bets for a while with SAR'S CoV-2 because of the "novel" factor among other things.

    Wiki Covid Page

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019


    {{{ for the uneducated reader, Tedros was referring directly to countrys choosing
    to not do anything and just allow people to catch the virus(and die) as humans developed their natural herd immunity}}}
    what is your math percentage % ?

    what % of Americans are anti-vaxxers ?


    https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/45-percent-surveyed-american-adults-doubt-vaccine-safety
    soo we can safely assume the % of Americans who are anti-vaxxers is likely to be significant & well above placebo & error margins
    i suggest usa anti-vaxxers number roughly close to 8% as a solid number[100% will not get vaccinated].

    anti-vaxxer behaviors causes & influences & ability to influence outcomes
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2021
  13. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    19,500

    Herd immunity is between 60 and 80% immune, which is vaccinated plus infected, divided by durability of immunity. So if we need 70% for Ro herd immunity, and we get to 45% vaccination and 30% previously infected, and those confer 95% immunity, then we have gotten there.

    (Needless to say we don't need to get to Ro herd immunity, since we will be masking for a while.)
     
  14. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,137
    ok i see what your saying, thanks.

    your numbers(as do all, rely on specific conditions, versus what is natural herd immunity percentage)

    natural herd immunity is probably close to 80% once the susceptible have died off


    roll out time tables ? (it looks like roll out in the usa is being gamed, the money is soo big probably nearly 40% of all Americans will gladly sabotage it to make a million dollars which is why i stated my opinion some months back saying the military should be managing it as an open book policy)

    anti body production time = ?

    if we took the last presidential voting to give a clear sign of vaccination acceptance
    we could roughly assume 40% of the republican voters would be anti vaxxers for a collection of different reasons.


    now we run some more numbers
    variant evolution
    vaccine roll out time table
    anti-vaxxer circulation & percentage(including incubation's & re infections[a staggered re infection ratio])

    anti-body production life cycle Time (?) in the vaccinated & the infected
     
  15. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,137
    https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...t-population-fully-vaccinated-for-coronavirus

    CDC: 10% of U.S. Adult Population Fully Vaccinated for COVID-19
    The milestone comes as declines in key coronavirus metrics like cases and hospitalizations appear to be stalling.

    By Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder, Staff Writer March 1, 2021, at 4:35 p.m.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


    have you run your numbers including the anti-vaxxer % ?
    & including the current roll out rate ?
    & including the life cycle production time span of anti-body production ?

    i suspect some numbers are being fudged(as all of these numbers need to be to get a result to work with) somewhere in your math formula based on assumed variables of the infected & the time span of the roll out combined with the anti-vaxxers
    i see a bit of a gap of around 10%
    under the effective threshold to total herd immunity as being a problem as new variants come into the cycle

    assuming
    the % of immunity drops with the potential on-set of lower efficacy ?

    i would expect a certain amount of over lap would be required.

    350 million Americans
    7%(conservative) anti-vaxxers
    8% too sick to be administered(collective medical including hospital patients)
    5% immunological/medical issues that define it as effectively their choice & probably better not

    this is removing roughly 20%

    i guess we need to get a bit practical to see what % are mobile spreaders i the community
    but also then combine & formulate that with super-spreaders

    i think if the % can be kept under 15% your good

    i get a feeling roughly the numbers look like close to 25% which is problematic(workable but still a hard long jump because its that die off percentage)
    that die off % that American capitalist economics has built in to service the front end money
    the die off is easily traded up
    the bigger the die off
    the bigger the profit
    so the natural market culture & its people are gaming against herd immunity with the die off to make more profit
    soo if you have no over lap
    you have nothing to defeat the natural market culture seeking to push up the die off by preventing herd immunity
    but this thread is not supposed to be about propaganda wars of social genocide so i will leave it there with that point
    but it is a key driver as money drives it independently & profit dictates the market behaviour
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2021
  16. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    6,137
    Good news ! USA
    The US will have enough coronavirus vaccines for every adult by the end of May, President Joe Biden has said
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56262687

    what in my opinion is needed is
    an ability to over lap by gaining time
    time to study research & produce & deliver new vaccines to the front line so as people cycle through the end of roughly 6 months from their last injection, they are able to if needed start to look at a new vaccination in the coming months.
    i expect a full swap out time line would be roughly 4 months once the new vaccine is starting to roll off the production line.
    maintaining hopefully a 6 month window to stay ahead allowing business to return to normal & all new & existing channels to be vaccinating people whom are at work in work-life-balance allowable time lines.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2021
  17. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    6,137
    Brazil


    some medical researchers have estimated the real infection rate in Brazil is around 300k per day
    this would place the real death toll around 10,000 per day rough ball park figure
    this will be fueling the new variant
    i am guessing the new variant will be the dominant strain

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56342303
    Brazil experts issue warning as hospitals 'close to collapse

    Health systems in most of Brazil's largest cities are close to collapse due to Covid-19 cases, the country's leading health institute warns.
    More than 80% of intensive care unit beds are occupied in the capitals of 25 of Brazil's 27 states, Fiocruz said.
    Experts warn that the highly contagious variant in Brazil may have knock-on effects in the region and beyond.
    "Brazil is a threat to humanity," Fiocruz epidemiologist Jesem Orellana told the AFP news agency.
    The country has recorded more than 266,000 deaths and 11 million cases since the pandemic began.
    It has the second highest number of deaths in the world after the US and the third highest number of confirmed cases.
    Despite this, President Jair Bolsonaro has consistently opposed quarantine measures and expert advice on fighting coronavirus.
     
  18. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,137
    Quick thought reading some news online

    some thoughts
    poorer country's that are not vaccinating however have wide spread infection
    will be incubating new variants at massively faster rates.
    the question is what will vaccinated country's be doing as they reach vaccination rates(immigration & border controls)

    however, millions of people just over their borders are incubating new variants soo fast they may vastly undermine the vaccinated population of those country's vaccinated.
    it will potentially wipe billions of dollars worth of vaccinations out.

    it may be a little easier for some country's to keep people out.
    however country's like the USA & Mexico will be unable to prevent new variants getting over their borders

    the USA economy cant recover without low paid south American labor
     
  19. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    6,137
    given that computer modelling has placed real infection rates between 2 to 20 times higher than recorded infection rates
    times reported figures by 5 as a base minimum

    Czech Republic
    suggest they are now at maximum capacity but will not say those words publicly

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56340161

    guessing based on modelling
    1650,000 infections per 1 million people possible in czech republic
    with what would likely be around 10,000 to 15,000 deaths per day (guessing based on modelling)


    so the claim of herd immunity is quite the reverse of reassuring because it means the new variants will be mutating so fast a vaccine may be worthless
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2021
  20. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,137
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56302176

    keeping in mind in Brazil the death toll when based on modelling is likely to be around 2 million
    with the new stronger variants rampant & completely out of control

    so i can understand EU hesitancy to release vaccines over seas when they are not going to be used fast enough or wide enough at their own expense and in a situation that may create vaccine resistance in the new variant which will then come in from tourists and spread a lot faster and be vaccine resistant to most degrees.

     
  21. Dennis Tate Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    834

    I personally would prefer to NOT take the vaccine.....
    unless it is mandated and I am faced with the choice of taking the vaccine or not being able to work......

    .... even under those conditions I might come up with some sort of alternative.....
    I had bleeding ulcers when I was four years of age, (1963), I had rheumatoid arthritis when I was fourteen and
    I was forced to learn how to boost my immune system considerably. I now feel better at sixty one than I did at thirty six.......

    ..... and from what I hear about most variations of the vaccine so far... they were obviously rushed into the market.

    More information on my reasoning process here.....
    (flawed as it may well be)?????
    http://www.sciforums.com/threads/i-began-to-take-msm-back-in-1999.164106/

    I began to take MSM back in 1999


    Basically.... I am now taking vitamin C, Vitamin D3, zinc and MSM and I really feel that I am very unlikely to die from COVID 19 when I finally do get it..... and.... I know that I will admit that I have it and isolate if and when there is a decent chance that I have contracted it. In a way I am a front line worker.... I am a janitor at a school.....
    but my province Nova Scotia, has very few cases of COVID 19.
     
  22. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    19,500
    Yep, a lot of people feel that way. Which is why it will have to be mandated, sadly.
     
    Dennis Tate likes this.
  23. Dennis Tate Registered Senior Member

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    834
    Yes... I agree with your sentiment, "sadly."
     

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