SAR'S CoV-2 Death rates & Statistics

Discussion in 'World Events' started by RainbowSingularity, Mar 10, 2021.

?

do you think the Real covid death toll in some countries is higher if so by how much ?

  1. yes but dont know

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  2. yes many times higher

    100.0%
  3. NO . i think thier statistics are accurate

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  4. i think the statistics are too high

    0 vote(s)
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  1. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    news item
    Brazil Records highest daily death toll & infections
    personal opinion speculation
    and it occurred to me
    if this is the number of registered infected & dead
    the death toll alone must be several times larger
    maybe 5 times at a rough guess
     
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  3. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    The experts have been saying since early on that one must consider a factor of ten at least in most underdeveloped nations and those who maintain a political priority to understate the situation.
    Due to inadequate testing, fear of being tested etc... collateral deaths associated with co-morbidity being understated on death certificates etc.
     
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  5. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    it is a difficult thing balancing the ordinary peoples desires to remain ignorant of difficult realities

    the middle eastern illegal migrant issue in Europe is a classic example
    Muslims seeking to become capitalist money makers in christian democracy
    which is in conflict with their religious moral & cultural beliefs.
    They are not jumping borders for cultural experience & inclusion
    they are illegally jumping borders & demanding entrance to get money from the democratic capitalist system
    and openly disagree with the culture & morals of that European culture.

    how does EU protect its self from this criminal disease while maintaining its self identity ?
    a very very hard question that will not be discussed in the media.

    middle eastern civil wars being blamed on western colonialist concepts
    so the no win situation is normalised & then promoted as a moral culture doctrine.

    you could liken the problem to be illegal immigrants in the northern European countrys dying of hypothermia in the winter then blaming the northern EU people for not giving them what ever they asked for while they break all the rules (including spreading lethal diseases & claiming that is their right to do so)they want and directly oppose the local peoples will & culture.

    i see Australia is publicizing their deportation of convicted criminals.
    i agree on one hand & disagree on the other.
    anyone committing anti social crimes or crimes that undermine the economic system should expect to be deported back home after their prison sentence(although i am 50/50 on the prison sentence if their home location is going to be equal or not much better than prison then just deport them back home).

    people are quick to point out asian countrys death sentences for drug possession & say everyone should already know this reality so its tourist be ware
    why should Australia be guilt tripped into being the rubbish pile & suffering the massive economic hit just to service some type of transference guilt trip asserting they must carry the moral heavy load to make up for asias failings in human rights

    Australia has a lot of its own work to do, to combat its massive meth addiction its own people have tied into societys push for faster & faster economic principals.


    notice there(public perception) is no data coming out of middle eastern countrys about SAR'S CoV-2 statistics
    obviously information suppression

    things like the Haj which would have lost a few billion dollars in over sees wages being carried back in & spent
    align that to indias massive Hindu high density gatherings(which have not been stopped[the people/indian citizens did not want to stop them])


    each country has their own culture & way of dealing with the global pandemic

    people with conflicting morals & conflicting values of human life & conflicting values of human rights,
    all demanding the latest cutting edge scientific breakthroughs
    in exchange for what ?
    social evolution ?
    equal employment rights for women ?
    open access to real patient scientific medical data ?

    i hope they choose to put science 1st because by the time they all agree to bend their archaic social values to deliver a collective moral norm, the new variants will be running the world & likely loss of a few trillion dollars & hundreds of thousands of needles deaths

    but what better way to evaluate the human species to see if its worth continuing
    its barely staying tied at the moment at nill all

    • what i wanted to post was my guessing at global stats
    because i want to know how close i am to the real figures
    and ... as you mention
    real figures is where the virus is, not in some political speech sitting on a piece of paper waiting back door lobbyist funding by some think tank bent on exploitative profiteering

    deaths
    china ? around 2 million
    India possibly now closer to 5 million(and climbing)
    south America (including Mexico)topping close to 5 million & possibly about to start climbing even faster.
    USA is around 1 million dead
    south east asia is really hard{ i have been attempting vaguely to grapple with the real figures of south east asia/Philippines Malaysia etc}
    they don't register births deaths or marriages to anywhere near the required level to grasp a clear guide on the larger movement of data.
    i expect Philippines & Malaysian death toll will already be millions, but they have no real alternative no they have broken their partnership with the USA

    cause of death listing & spending money on the dead to test for anything is in congruent to their basic economic ability & survival.

    while some suggest america has been asking for what they are getting for decades, i personally do not wish to see the americas crushed by covid.
    the global impact & destabilization of global power would be a big issue.

    a lot of people are conditioned(indoctrinated) to give up
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2021
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  7. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/a-coron...nfolding-in-real-time-on-australia-s-doorstep


    different article says the hospital has effectively closed to all but emergency operations only
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2021
  8. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    7,044
    looking at india
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-19-positive-25-dead/articleshow/76090084.cms
    trying to figure out roughly what the real death statistics might be

    i see back last year around july
    2,211 police tested positive
    out of that number
    25 died
    so that is
    1 death per 220 confirmed cases

    thats quite mind bending statistically, the implications are staggering.
    considering that death level i am not surprised the Indian authorities will be trying to keep the real impact as quiet as possible to maintain law & order.

    looking at one area i tried to get some real data
    but there isn't any
    holding on by their finger nails i suspect.

    1 province with 114 million have officially tested some unknown number
    out of those they tested
    which they wont say how many they tested

    maharashtra province

    2.2 million confirmed
    52,500 dead

    1 death in every 41 confirmed cases
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103458/india-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-by-state/

    i expect patients probably have to pay for all their own testing so only very rich familys will test for covid of a dead person or sick person.
    keeping in mind most people wont be able to get into a hospital as they cant afford it.
    so these statistics will be coming from the upper classes



    now if we apply the same death rate as the police whom you would think to be at least as healthy as the average indian middle class
    1 dead for every 220

    = 10,000 dead from 2.2 million infections
    but the death rate they show is 52,500

    so we have a "rough" death rate of 1 in 41 positive covid patients in India

    The population of Maharashtra state is 112,374,333

    The density of Maharashtra state is 365 per sq km.
    Maharashtra State is spread over 307,713 Sq Km.

    so do we go a bit weird and suggest we are going to pull a figure from
    1 per 41 = 2.43 % 2dp
    &
    1 per 220 = 0.45 % 2dp
    ?
    % of death rate of infected

    punjab 3.13%(2dp<)...31083219069717
    west bengal 1.78%(2dp<)...21294713593765

    Delhi 1.70%(2dp<)...33086974147875

    taking 3 main areas

    death rate appears to be around 2% of infected
    thats very high

    check for yourself
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103458/india-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-by-state/
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2021
  9. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,263
    It may be worth preparing a comprehensive listing of factors that determine the fatality rate. (not just infection rates but death rates)

    Just few that I can think of:
    • Adequate medical facilities. ie. ICU ventilators and quality of staff trained in tending to patients on ventilators.
      • Obviously if hospitals have not enough ventilators or ICU staff etc the fatality rate is going to be much higher.
    • Lack of supplemental bottled oxygen.
    • The degree of local paranoia concerning attending a hospital that is perceived as a death zone by the local population.
      • This leads to late treatment and patients that are too ill to receive adequate ICU treatment and patients that would normally attend a doctor for serious illness or check up for serious illness not doing so.
    • Over whelmed medical services including paramedics, hospitals, ambulance, nursing etc.
      • High stress levels lead to mistakes many of which are written off as part of a bad deal.
    • High death rate among treatment professionals, nursing staff, doctors etc.
    • Collateral deaths due to co-morbidity issues, obesity, diabetics, hospital acquired disease.
    • Poor hospital hygiene due to overwhelmed cleaning staff and patient services.
    • Denial of service due to hospitals being at capacity.
      • People that are not only suffering Covid-19 but all other potentially life threatening problems, car accidents etc...failing to gain entry into overwhelmed hospitals.
    • Critically ill dying at home , with little treatment options available.
    I am sure there are other major influences on the actual death rate that I haven't mentioned. (and welcome any one who can add to the list.)
    In amongst them are reasons why the death rate can be and probably always will be understated.
     
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  10. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    7,044
    with me being aware of the differing ideologies from some non western cultures who define western technology as being rich idle privilege where barbarity can be afforded to be not metered out.
    there is that similar cultural issue around superstition as you so critically point out.
    ironic we see such a massive volume of medieval superstition coming out of the USA toward science & vaccines,
    & then as we euphemistically glance over at tribal war lord society's who share the same ideology as those anti-vaxers living as urban westerners.
    bizarre as a definition doesn't really cut it.

    i am at pains to avoid drowning this thread in moral ideological meme style retort play for those who would much rather play splain both-sides from their position of privilege of wealth, isolation & medical services, gaming extremist social engineering for personal sadistic amusement.

    i don't know enough about the Uighurs(or mongol Muslim outlier states) to make any sane cultural comment, except to ponder about the great wall of china & ancient battles between the warring Genghis Khan & century's of armys waging war backward and forth.

    the subject is so vast & complex i doubt i can do it any real justice to not precisely limit my scope to superficial understanding from a great distance.

    usa how they treat south american border crossers
    Australia how they are starting to deport more people(not the same but from an uneducated yobs perspective it may appear very similar in human rights values toward non localised cultures, including its illegal immigrant detention camps which appear to have been run quite poorly from a public relations perspective)

    when a small group of violent radicals inside your peaceful refugee caravan decide to burn everyone's housing & food to the ground, what do you do ?
    line them up against the wall and be done with it to save the majority who are peaceful & non violent ?

    i guess there is a need for hard prison services adjacent to illegal immigrant border jumpers to isolate & secure such people to prvent them from destroying all the food & possessions of the others.
    but it seems this has not been done.

    instead some type of toxic compromise which almost baits the non violent to be human shields or pawns.

    i will leave it there before i get to far off track
    1. point is
    • using USA as a convenient example do we see a different public valuation of medical officers (nurses & doctors) which is discriminatory compared to the institutionalized value of police & military officers ?
    is there something here that can be learnt from ?(i think so 100% but its possibly to awkward for the average person to evaluate their own moral absolute value system they currently have propped up like a rusty old tin shit house

    now we see entire countrys attempting to secure vast borders to prevent re-infection
    just like all those apocalypse American movies
    but its real
    its happening

    do feel free to make a comment on what i have posted above.
    maybe if you wish start a thread of civil control & human rights of mixed national law & order ideologies of the value of human values/ethics & morality
    and/or go check out

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    Tiassa s' thread

    ... http://www.sciforums.com/threads/mask-burning-the-ethics-of-freedom.164101/ ...
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2021
  11. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,263
    Firstly, in the context of death rates etc. the medical services fatalities are very concerning as these people (victims) are those that are devoted not only professionally but typically in a personal manner to the well being of the community. Typically they are also the cream of a nations intellect, surgeons, doctors, ICU nurses etc are part of the intellectual elite that lifts the community into a more civilized state. (?)

    When a qualified MD dies from covid it is more than just a loss of medical expertise, it is a loss that can only exasperate the efficacy of the communities viral load. ( more deaths - antithesis (?) of what communities are trying to do regarding the reduction of harm from this pandemic) It is a bit like asking : How many civilians will die in a war zone for every individual allied soldier that dies?

    But most importantly with out their living presence the nations capacity to offer solutions to this Covid crisis becomes accordingly limited.

    To me, the fatalities among health staff is one of the most tragic things about this pandemic. Not to mention that survivors suffering post covid syndrome will more often than not never reenter the profession again due to acquired long term incapacity to function in stressful and acute situations.

    Secondly, the side issue of migrant, refugee integration vs assimilation would indeed make a great thread topic. I would suggest that integration can only be viewed as a stepping stone to eventual generational assimilation. In the case of strong religious beliefs the generational rate of assimilation is much longer than those who are more flexible in their religious values. Having to compromise to assimilate is undoubtedly necessary but not so necessary for integration.
    Yes... another thread would be necessary if serious discussion were to take place.
     
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  12. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    7,044
    USA FLU deaths 2019 to 2020
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    estimate
    quick math of CDC Flu death rate
    2019 to 2020
    % = 0.11071428571428571
    ==========================


    SAR'S CoV-2
    India
    Reported death rate (links provided above for official death stats to calculate death rate)
    as high as 3% in some districts as low as 1% in others

    SAR'S CoV-2
    USA

    confirmed cases = 29,400,000
    Deaths = 532,000
    USA official reported rate
    % 1.8095238095238095

    can we now tend toward a rough calculation of around 2% death rate average ?


    India population 1.366 billion (2019)
    1,366,000,000
    if we go with the USA figure to account for children with immunity to it in India & those with natural immunity
    lets be conservative to adjust for children going down from 1.8% to 1.5%

    India with roughly 100% infection = 20,490,000
    USA with roughly 100% infection = 5,250,000


    what it appears is roughly speaking around 50% of deaths are working people
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2021
  13. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  14. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    ouch !

    add on the new variants & the larger viral loads that may increase

    to what ... 3.5% maybe ... ?
    so places like South America may get up as high as 3.5% soon ?
     
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  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    not necessarily as the figure of 2.48% is a 13-14 month global figure.
    but...
    If we look at Brazil we find that the CFR rate today after 13 months is about 2.42% and this may increase dramatically as the medical systems in Brazil are overwhelmed and a coping threshold is passed.
    If the infection rate trend remains steady the CFR in Brazil could be well over 3.5% and the longer the trend remains upward the 13+ month average can only get worse..
    From what I have been reading and listening to and also from local sources ( family + friends in Brazil. One being an ICU nurse and another being a GP ) just the lack of supplemental oxygen needed for respiratory failure etc is leading to a huge increase in what would other wise be avoidable fatalities.
    • The thing is that if all things are considered equal the CFR should eventually flatten out, but things are not equal.
    • No oxygen reserves, no solid government commitment state or federal.
    • The majority of people too poor and ignorant to properly protect themselves etc.
    • High density living with poor sanitation and hygiene.
    • Slow roll out of vaccines.
    • New variants coming from the Amazon

    They are verging on a catastrophic threshold which could, once passed see the CFR go double digit.
    All 4 graphs for Brazil provided by worldometers show strong upward trends at the moment.

    The key issue facing every one is how well the hospital/health systems function. Once they fail to function the mortality rate increases dramatically. This is one of the main reasons for going into lockdown.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2021
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  16. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    what i may not have forgotten to mention is i am adding the new variant potential to increase the CFR
    if all Covid becomes the new variant
    will the CFR increase ?
    i expect the CFR to increase co-morbidity factors with lack of health care as hospitals are over whelmed, however.
    if we simply move the new higher viral load variants which are 70% more contagious, if they continue and become more contagious still AND have the higher viral load factor as they combat vaccines and natural resistance
    its a bit Darwinian
    the worse strain will become dominant.

    Great news
    India Japan USA
    great to see they are really starting to move their power & science
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-56381104
    what they have picked up on which is really good, is south east Asia Philippines & Malaysia & their geographical construction
    this will be providing incubation zones.
    Vietnam Cambodia Laos Korea all become easy routes in of highly mutated long incubated covid.

    the ability of people to then travel by boat into japan Australia Korea & USA will become highly accessible as a risk factor.
    Island nations Japan Australia UK will have the opportunity to become clean operational business hubs which can then in turn help other country's.
    India face an incredibly hard job
    they will need considerable assistance to help them vaccinate their population as they become the new factory of the world in some key things.

    and this is why Joe will be wise to look at implementing a special working group with the Mexican government to help create a buffering zone through Mexico to stem the tide of infected, & vaccinate them as they come in.
    hopefully the USA will help Mexico seek 100% vaccination rate as soon as they have secured their own resources, HOWEVER part of their labour resources cross that border so pose a significant cost to treat and manage
    which is why they need to protect them so they protect their own economy.
    the USA cant get back on its feet without Mexican workers and cross border normality.

    effectively turning Mexico into a vaccination station for south America as it moves north
    Mexico will need help in globally unlikely supply(Geo-political-neo-covid-colonialism drama issues which most countrys will not wish to become the whipping boy for anti colonialist rhetoric) to create a hard southern border.

    as always the modern world looks to japans people, industry & science to help solve this global crisis. japan must be assisted to continue providing the computing & science technology which most other country's will require
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2021
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  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Just my thoughts in response, ok?....
    if the degree of contagiousness and death rate increase then of course the CFR will increase accordingly, especially i fthat strain becomes dominant in the viral load.
    most probably, but not certainly. IMO
    It is great that they are demonstrating the knowledge that the longer the viral load remains high the more likely mutations will form.

    To provide affordable Vax aid to low income nations benefits every one and not just the low income nation.

    It also speeds up Vax delivery and therefor minimizes the risk of mutation.

    It also means that these tourist dependent nations ( mostly tourism) will be able to reopen their economies more quickly and successfully thus minimizing other humanitarian and economic aid needed.
    From a geopolitical pov it provides less incentive for these nations to form a dependency on Chinese aid. ( possibly the greater motivation to form the Quad group due to obvious Chinese interests in expanding it's influence in the region). The competition between China and the Quad group if remaining peaceful, can only benefit these small low income nations. However if it turns hostile then that's another story altogether.

    agreed!
    This issue is one of the complex big ones facing the America's.
    To provide assistance to Mexico to inoculate all refugees whether they make it to the USA border or not would be a wise action to take.
    To step up economic aid to departure nations to minimize economic refugee numbers along with aiding in internal security measures to minimize those fleeing violence etc would also be a wise move.
    Agree however just about all 1st world Asian nations, including South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc have much to offer mainly because they can be very competitive with strong European and USA offers.

    For example: If China can simply put aside it's political sovereign needs placed upon Taiwan and actually encourage Taiwan, Taiwan can be a terrific asset to China providing products that would be difficult to find on the mainland. Treating Taiwan as a special case zone, enshrined similar to how Honk Kong was but with in a perpetual time period ( lending certainty to investment ) The wealth that Taiwan would gather would ultimately flow onto the Chinese mainland.

    perhaps another thread...
     
  18. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    9,431
    Rather depends how you define "worse", does it not?
    What I'm getting at is that the ideal for the virus would be for it to be highly contagious and utterly irrelevant to human existence. If it is highly contagious but too damaging then humans will do what they can to wipe it out, or at least until a strain becomes dominant that is not so damaging (that humans can live with, albeit with an adjusted lifestyle such as vaccines and a low death rate from the virus). So it would be in its own interest for the dominant strain not to be too damaging.
     
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  19. Dicart Registered Senior Member

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    250
    I agree.

    Yes, it would be nice (for the virus) if this could be possible (this exist for VIH at some point and with herpes).
    The problem (for the virus) is that to be enought contagious with this kind of virus (coronavirus), the virus need to settle the body and destroy the cells.
    Therefore you are sick (and everybody see you are sick).
    But you are right, a good strategy is to delay the moment you look sick, the virus settle the body without doing too much reproduction until... (and it is interresting for the virus) all the infected cells reproduce simultaneously, and the chance to die increase highly. This is the kind of adaptation we observe with the "english variant" and that we will probably see for other variants in the futur.

    Not sure.
    There could be also a long term battle where the virus become more and more able to spread.

    To reproduce, the virus do damage.

    Therefore, all you say here is not wrong but it is not right too.
    We can not say with words (at least with very complicated simulations and with some hypothesis) how the virus will evolve, and "we" (every country is different) not even know how we will react in the futur, so if the virus evolve because of our actions, how can we know ?
     
  20. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    20,574
    Right. From an evolutionary perspective, any pathogen will evolve until it can infect as many organisms as possible. Sometimes this means worse symptoms so that people sneeze and cough more frequently. Sometimes it means more infectious without a change in symptoms. There is a reasonable theory that in modern times some human pathogens are evolving to be LESS symptomatic - because when they are less symptomatic, human medicine fights them less aggressively, and they can be more successful. In some ways, a human pathogen that shows no symptoms but is very, very contagious has the potential to be the most successful in evolutionary terms.
     
  21. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,263
    but using the same ration-al (Survival, reproduction) it would be evolutionarilly beneficial that the virus not only fails to kill it's host but forms a beneficial symbiotic relationship with it instead.
    Example:
    The ideal Darwinist virus:
    • Highly contagious
    • Beneficial to host so that reproduction via contagion can continue with enthusiasm.
    • The sort of virus humans would like to promote and not defeat.
    Abstract fiction:
    "Viral Man" - Marvel. Superhuman powers, sexual attractiveness and immortality gained by becoming infected with highly contagious virus"
    lol
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2021
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  22. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    20,574
    We call those mitochondria.
     
  23. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    i hope brazil does waste any aid it is given building some neo-con private military

    however, if the vaccine is rolled out in short supply & the virus then mutates & incubates inside millions with small doses of vaccine in it
    what will the virus do ?
     

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