SAR'S CoV-2 Death rates & Statistics

Discussion in 'World Events' started by RainbowSingularity, Mar 10, 2021.

?

do you think the Real covid death toll in some countries is higher if so by how much ?

  1. yes but dont know

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  2. yes many times higher

    100.0%
  3. NO . i think thier statistics are accurate

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  4. i think the statistics are too high

    0 vote(s)
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  1. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,276
    Always a chance they might do so ....
    Interesting question...that probably needs to be rephrased...
    Imagines headline:
    Partial Vax immunity could lead to disaster
     
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  3. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    7,098
    ...
    "will" dependent if your selling vaccine to a closed market or attempting to maintain fascist like grip on power
    or deliberately increase the death rate of the pandemic to a mass human cull
    [all the negatives running at the moment with no opposing positives]

    at the moment the vaccine roll out is far to slow
    the initial doses of old vaccine will be almost a waste of time once they get to the coal face of the new strains
    soo much so it looks deliberate
    only way the usa can survive is by creating a hard border with south America and they lack the moral-will to maintain a quarantine process.


    who wants to give free food to marauding hoards hell bent on wiping out your culture ?
    i get it

    USA has south America
    china has its western frontier
    Canada has the USA
    UK has the EU
    the EU has middle east
    the middle east has the middle east (i will leave it there)

    i have cut my teeth on these type of strategic puzzles
    so what i see is obvious is other peoples A game
    island nations as long as they keep their borders shut & quarantine everyone, should be ok
    everyone else is in the wind
    the big push needs to be in the 3rd tier vaccine research to deliver to the new current variant level of threat
    or they will simply be over run in 6 months to a year

    thats just how it is

    so unles the new event between India USA Australia and japan is specifically targeting delivering a new mass produced vaccine to specifically target the new and developing variant.
    its all rather pointless and a massive waste of resources.
    except for Australia & japan because they are island states

    i have de-rephrased my opinion[above] for you

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    when it comes to countering the pandemic
    what use is politeness and manners to the dead

    Curtain Raiser !

    ~@~*~<>~@~*~<>~@~*~<>~@~*~<>~@~*~<>
    [look i made bunting]
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2021
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  5. Dennis Tate Valued Senior Member

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    1,154
    Wow... my wife keeps me updated on what is happening in South America so I will ask her about this next week.
     
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  7. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    7,098
    when you add their collapsed hospital system
    lack of food & medical distribution
    and compound that as causative to the pandemic
    i think the death rate will likely be closer to 4% for them maybe 5%
    but they have soo many very poor people whom the rich & society feed off their death rate as a form of profit against social funding
    some political figures are calling for people to spend money of buying weapons(machine guns & hand guns etc)
    but thy are dirt poor & cant afford a health system they cant afford to bury thier own dead as of several months ago

    so it seems a bit weird, what is really going on ?
    such a large very mobile population with soo much virus infection in them

    i love Brazilian music & have met & socialized with a Brazilian people over many years and like them very much i dont want to see their country crushed
     
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  8. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    the atmospheric conjuring is a little tilted to nature perceptions of intelligent evolution
    i get your point
    but many may read that as if the virus is sipping a cup of tea choosing a walk around the thorn bushes

    is there a study (which can be compared for structure)on the common cold/flu virus to see why it has lasted so long ?
    is there a pay off somewhere for humans ?(possibly an immunological driver to ward off a base level of viral loading ?) im speculating

    i will come back to this thread i have not read other responses
    i have what feels like a developing bacterial sinus infection which is making things difficult.
     
  9. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    9,478
    Absolutely.

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    I guess I was sticking to the negative virus idea. But yeah, becoming a beneficial virus would be in everyone's interest.
     
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  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,276
    so what does this have to say about Darwinism? (rhetorical)
    Perhaps something to think on for a bit...

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  11. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    9,478
    If you are referring to "survival of the fittest" then in this context a virus that is both beneficial to its host and highly contagious would be the "fittest" compared to a negative virus, but even the negative one could be sufficiently fit for survival (like seasonal flu virus).

    What point are you trying to make?
     
  12. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,276
    There are all sorts of points one could make given that in the millions of years of humanoid existence not a single virus has achieved such a positive survival state. ( as far as I know)

    Mind you, there is some argument that supports the notion that even a negative virus is ultimately beneficial to humans as it aids in the evolution of a more sophisticated immune response for those humans that survive free of artificial interventions. Testing human surivability and forcing selection of the best survivor to procreat the next generation. A natural form of Eugenics so to speak.

    This assumes that those humans that survive a viral attack can pass their success down to the next generation via DNA.

    Waiting for the next viral attack to further improve their immune response. The virus being a tool to evolve human immunity so to speak, thus making a normally fatal virus a positive human evolutionary tool.
    But perhaps this notion is too anthropocentric (human-centric)?

    It's a bit like saying that the common cold rhinovirus is actually essential to human evolution and not something that we should seek to diminish by artificial means but allow to run it's natural course.
     
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  13. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    the virus is in so many places evolving un checked it has lots of opportunity to evolve low survival high kill rate variants which are not very hardy as far as long term communicable survival factors go.

    looking at china when the pandemic broke out into public distribution
    this error was made
    the assumption was similar to observed ideas around SAR'S & the expectation that the small chance that the correct variant evolve, it would move faster than any current global medical capability.
    that has proven to be the case in every single country.

    so the fringe theory of probabilistic theory is now almost as pointless as hot buttered toast in a rain storm without an umbrella

    on a statistical impact level
    its like suggesting only the best highest quality soldier will have the most impact on a battle front while the thousands of poorly equipped soldiers are ignored as being not good enough

    it is the antithesis of the saying "a terrorist only needs to be lucky once"

    i have tried discussing this subject over the years but it appears to be actively suppressed by many people.
    i think the subject is indoctrinated as a brain washing process the same as the cold war era reds under the bed knee jerk name calling of "socialist" to any mixed market economic model or moral principal of community morality.

    it is ok inside a framed religion where but not ok in secular society.
    anti-liberal dogma by liberals & vacuous left leaning privilege
    but that is a different thread subject.

    my point is eugenics IS a natural process to a point
    humans by selection select genetic properties in mating
    genetic procreation tends towards process functionality which in turn defines probabilistic models of selection
    which argumentatively could be labeled as you call it natural eugenics.

    and to keep a certain value of scientific reality on the subject parameters to divide it clearly from conspiracy theory propaganda, one would need to provide an example.
    (QQ please disregard any vitriolic tone you may read, it is not toward you)
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2021
  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,276
    Sure the issue is vexatious and controversial, no doubt about it.
    It also reeks of the terrible nature of Nazi preoccupation with a master race . Of course this spawns a strong emotional response and conspiracy theories in many sensitive readers.

    The issue is currently in the news in regards to gene editing, cloning etc and is extremely divisive.

    Just about all science fiction is in some way holding on to the notion of engineering our way to godhood or when applied to apocalyptic science fiction humanities extinction due to scientific "misadventure".

    I am not sure there is any future fiction that does not involve some form of either AI enhanced cybernetics or genetically engineered humans or both combined...
    So one could say that natural eugenics (Darwinism) is out the window and artificial eugenics is all the rage.. lol
    btw similar could be said for terra-forming Earth ( climate change ) but that is a another issue....

    I understand the frustration...so no problems..
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2021
  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,276
    Just as a matter of interest..and concern,
    Because I rent a room to a person who has family in IRAN.
    the current CFR for Iran is as high as 3.48% and is chronically understated.
     
  16. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    my take is near the end of the obama admin irans government fell apart as they started an internal power struggle/civil war
    which lead to lots of Iranian middle class attempting to get out as the urbanized economy collapsed
    that was only escalated by the trump administration winding up rhetoric which resulted in iran validating it walking away from nuclear sanctions & the consequential terrorist attacks they have lead against oil interests globally.

    so the medical system would have shrunk massively & is probably like a very small highly privatized expensive rich people only system
    with dying field hospital like services for the average Iranian(1900s style hospital care inside new buildings).

    soo
    how do you factor a real CFR
    thats obviously quite impossible

    iran simply wont have the resources to buy testing kits
    even if it had the will to test people
    it does not have the people support as they would view the virus as some type of western propaganda system to try & exploit their power base.
    those who know it is real & the real risk of the threat will be keeping their head down to prevent being labeled a spy or western sympathizer & thrown out of their job
    and in their society, jobs are rare.

    Iranian religious leadership whom control the country are probably very happy with the idea of a god given virus killing off a few million Iranians
    it solidify's their power base and gives them more money & control & they can use it to reinforce their religious doctrine.

    they have not helped themselves by allowing their people to radicalize in foreign groups
    if they had a better control of that a western country would be likely already helping them.

    but there is a lot of people who will wage war, kill people in a religious genocidal act
    then stop & say they cant help it and it is gods will and nothing can be done.
    and then repeat the same process over and over
    its been going on for millennia

    soo
    to the CFR
    all be it completely useless
    iran probably has a CFR that is equal to the CFR
    so just double it
    if they label their CFR at 3.48(or is speculatively ranged there, its purely environmental)
    the number of people being tested needs to be listed
    and the rate of infection in the population is probably at-least equal to other countrys like Brazil & the USA.
     
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,276
    The same thing could be said for Papua New Guinea that is currently enduring an extremely urgent and potentially catastrophic outbreak just North of Australia.
    With a population of just 8.7 million one of the only real ways we can tell how bad it is is by the number of people that are currently tested as positive in our hotel quarantine system.
    While it is difficult to determine the total numbers of arrivals from PNG (from the media) we do know that a record number of 6 out of 8 total internationals testing positive are from PNG.

    Publicly published Information is sketchy but we do know that the Australian Government has initiated emergency PPE, medical teams, testing kits and vaccines etc to be immediately sent to PNG.
    This speed of aid delivery is quite extraordinary. IMO
    The depth of the infection rates are unknowable except to say that it must be significant. Inadequate testing and lab support making things extremely difficult.
    An almost totally unprepared and ignorant indigenous population, with low literacy rates and very poor health care systems and relatively new bureaucratic systems all add up to a potential viral catastrophe that will never be fully acknowledged and recorded as people pass away in place, are buried or cremated with out any testing performed.
    All travel from PNG to Australia has been banned for 14 days and expats have been told to "shelter"in place. ( Emergency aid staff etc exempted)

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    https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...rus-wave/7ae23bf8-8d53-47b0-8c03-f3437e59020c
    and
    https://www.9news.com.au/world/coro...r-speaks/1f8ed732-7613-45a4-ab13-6116bcb8e4ed
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2021
  18. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    i may have been a little terse with my response
    regardless of technical accuracy
    my point was we need to make a scientific guess
    contrasted against the anti-science brigade & their war efforts(it is a war because it involves people dying & those left alive & is defined by precise actions & conscious decisions) fighting against science.

    see the maternity ward is registering 4 out of 10 pre birther mothers are positive.
    thats mind boggling

    i assume PNG has a high density sleeping culture arrangement with many sharing the sam room for sleeping & eating
    this will amplify the spread quite obviously.


    cold war biological warfare concepts(same/same in reality) so you would think the military & governments would have no end of systems & prcesses to roll out & put in place.

    its just not immediately deadly to front line which shifts the cost factor back a few ranks to a level that incapacitates the enemy by forcing them to be the medical staff instead of front line staff taking new ground or preventing incursion.

    the irony is the public are willingly the incursion bringing down their own society
    defining it in old world terms wont solve the public spread.
    that is likely to only amplify the opposition as a position of extremist cult ideologies.

    your not about to suddenly change png culture
    and your not about to suddenly change their housing density issues
    additionally, what is not known is how they will be genetically effected.


    are we going to un-pack this ?(im guessing its a no) [WHO precisely is coming & going, oil'n gas & mining people ?]


    i agree
    there is no reason why a mobile lab can not be sailed into port in a ship of some type.
    preferably with a heli-port on
    its not like the mining & oil n gas companys are short on technology or money.


    why Australian military would be left holding the financial baby im not sure
    not only completely insufficient, but reeks of deliberate miss information word use to term the subject into a political tool.
    sheltering in place does not provide food & medical
    it limits injury from mobile weapons.

    who is the mobile weapons ?

    the risks defined by poor media attention
    versus political ideology
    versus private business games for profit

    versus everything

    look at all those cruise ships parked up in the Philippines for example
    no reason 1 of those cant be sailed into port with a mobile lab set up in it
    i would get Australian navy to legally commandeer(if P&O wont co-operate) a cruise ship, have the govt pay costs & all (on board cruise company) staff wages.
    then stick it up their with a Australian frigate & some type of local air-force component
    effectively delivering a hospital & quarantine ship with lab to PNG for free, financially assisted by the mining & oil n gas company's who can probably have an additional cruise ship set up in port to work with them for all their staff to use.

    but rich people dont get rich by thinking of how to save and help other people
    equally most politicians
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2021
  19. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    fabulous video
    amazing narration
     
  20. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56438629
    Covid vaccine: India shortfall behind UK's supply delay


     
  21. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56456312
    The UK death rate during the second wave of the pandemic was not the worst in Europe - but it remained one of the 10 worst-affected countries.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2021
  22. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    hot off the presses(it may not be new news considering the low death rate)
    Pakistan statistics published by media
    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/20/asia/pakistan-imran-khan-covid-intl/index.html
    note question
    have you had a covid virus test ?

    how many have you had ?
    results ?
    have you had a covid anti body test ?
    how many have you had ?
    results ?

    me,
    yes
    yes
    negative
    no
    none
    not applicable(n/a)
    (i am currently battling a bacterial infection probably contracted from my home environment carried into the house by someone[very poor at hand washing]

    {door handle or light switch most likely} handling rodent & stock animal contaminants poop & ground mold & pasturel viruses & bacteria(((keeping in mind in the office there is nose pickers who pick their nose & stick their fingers in their mouth and touch things like door handles & kitchen doors and machine buttons))))
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2021
  23. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,098
    PAKISTAN
    adding some clarity around expected(my rough guessing) figures

    throwing some numbers around based on population statistics
    ((((Google Data Covid statistics page))))

    Cases 623K
    Recovered 580K
    TOTAL Deaths 13,799

    Location Cases Recovered Deaths


    Sindh
    Population: 47.89 million (2017)
    cases 263K
    recovered 253K
    Deaths 4,478

    Punjab
    Population: 110 million (2017)
    cases 195K
    recovered 175K
    Deaths 5,944

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
    Population: 35.53 million (2017)
    cases 78,653
    recovered 71,861
    Deaths 2,202

    Islamabad Capital Territory
    Population: 2 million (2017)
    cases 50,843
    recovered 45,161
    Deaths 539

    Balochistan
    Population: 12.34 million (2017)
    cases 19,306
    recovered 18,919
    Deaths 203

    '+' shows new cases reported yesterday·Last updated: 2 days ago·
    Source:JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data


    Balochistan

    Population: 12.34 million (2017)

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...or-balochistan-to-help-recovery-from-covid-19


    [{(Remember this is me theorizing)}]


    Soo ... while not wishing to yell fire in a crowded cinema...
    the basic larger picture based on population and general guides would suggest covid is likely to have at least an equal effect to 1st world country rates like the USA

    we can run some
    theoretical models based on basic human cultural behaviors
    no face masks
    lots of community items handed back n forth, daily food markets where people shop daily.
    close family human to human contact groups sharing the same plate of food shifting mucus from mouth to finger to shared food on shared plate.
    normalized high density close contact personal space dynamics
    nutrition issues

    we can probably expect the spike to be on the lack of hospital care side rather than co-morbidity side like it would be in the usa.


     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2021

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