Sea level rise-it's complicated

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by sculptor, Mar 27, 2021.

  1. sculptor Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    8,310
    eg
    A bigger effect will come from changes in prevailing winds, which can push water consistently toward the land or keep it at bay. The trade winds that blow west across the tropical Pacific, for example, move water in the same direction, boosting average sea levels by as much as 24 inches on the western side of the ocean — in places such as the Philippines — compared with those in northern South America. If those winds shift with climate change, so would local sea levels.
    for more, see:
    https://e360.yale.edu/features/the_secret_of_sea_level_rise_it_will_vary_greatly_by_region

    but wait, there's more
    gravity comes into play
    "A coastal mountain range pulls the water in its direction, raising sea level nearby. So do the massive icecaps that smother Greenland and Antarctica. Indeed, Antarctica’s polar ice sheet is so massive that it is three miles thick in places and covers an area one-and-one-half times the size of the United States, including Alaska.
    These polar ice caps are Stouffer’s gorillas. They keep sea level higher than it would otherwise be for thousands of kilometers around both land masses, and correspondingly lower elsewhere.

    If the polar ice sheets shrink, though — as they’re currently doing, especially in Grenland and West Antarctica — their gravitational pull weakens and so does their hold on the surrounding water."
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2021
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  3. Dennis Tate Valued Senior Member

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    I am a firm believer that sea level rise is coming within decades.... if not within a few years.

    I am guessing that the land based Greenland Ice Pack will begin to crack and slide at faster levels soon if the images I find when I do a search for "Global Warming Arctic" are indicating the release of methane from the permafrost up north.


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  5. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    It's happening right now.
     
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  7. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    imagine if south America is cut off from north America from sea level rise

    some Asian low lying countrys may feel quite a squeeze

    Suez canal will be opened up for free
    some countrys will economically collapse from the shift in money
    one comment i read some years back suggests millions e.g Bangladesh etc will be turned into refugees

    hundreds of millions of refugees looking to take other peoples land & food
    etc etc
    over throwing governments by sheer with of numbers etc


    its just simple cause & effect logic


    i imagine that is 1 very good reason why india is pushing to reform its system to gain better farming efficiency as fast as possible
    very hard job

     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2021
  8. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    It ain't gonna happen without over 26 meters of sea level rise.
     
  9. Dennis Tate Valued Senior Member

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    1,154
    True.... but the amount of H2O that has been ADDED TO the central region of Antarctica has kept the whole formula
    much more stable than might have been the case otherwise.


    The possible rapid cracking and sliding of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does concern me.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090205142132.htm

    Collapse Of Antarctic Ice Sheet Would Likely Put Washington, D.C. Largely Underwater
     
  10. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    kinda like the opposite of "drain the swamp"
     
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  11. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    fact has been established that melt cycle turns all ice to mostly water
    total capacity is roughly 60 meters

    as you mention equator will take a larger proportion due to gravitational rotation etc
    not to mention the larger flood tides that ill be created with a larger body of water

    i think your 26 meters will be achieved with little difficulty
    it appears to be a question of when not if
     
  12. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    8,310
    not to worry
    greenland ice ain't completely melted for well over a million years(some claim 7 million years), and much longer for the east antarctic ice sheet---most likely, 34 million years---hard to tell
    the ice will most likely mostly remain until we exit this ice age

    we do not know why we are in this ice age
    and do not know when it will end
    absent that knowledge
    all is a guess
    ............................................................................................................................................................
    meanwhile
    a little (macabre?) humor

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    Last edited: Mar 29, 2021
  13. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    i will come back to this
    memory serves its the wobble plus solar system cycle
    combined with greenhouse balance

    humans have completely destroyed the green house balance
    plus sea level warming from massive phosphate run off & acidification(massive amount of chemicals dumped into the sea for over 100 years creating an acidic warming with acidification).

    knowledge im almost 100% sure is not so much absent
    but repeatable scientific proof is impossible without a spare earth & 8 billion people to sacrifice for practice

    note with the perfect balance it was something as small as a 2 to 4 % variance chance on a 26,000 year cycle
    ?

    but with humans tilting the balance to load the dice
    it makes no difference to the other collective impacts when 2 primary causes are being driven
    sea acidification
    sea warming
    atmosphere CO2 loading/warming

    while the deniers and fascists are demanding 4 value scientific results modeled as outcomes
    they are deliberately skewing the science so people dont know what to be looking at
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2021
  14. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    WOW you know how and why we entered this ice age??????????
    You gotta share that knowledge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    .................................................................................................
    and, meanwhile,
    here is another wrinkle
    it seems that the ocean highstands for (at least) mis 11 and mis 5 occurred and the end of those interglacials ---------so first we have the flood and then the ice
    (thanx god?)
     
  15. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,191
    (what difference would that make if i did?) = none

    the last glacial period
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Glacial_Period


    ICE AGE
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

    everything is melting
    we have ice

    do we still call it an ice age since the ice is now melting and the temperature is going up ?

    interesting question for thought

    how much of the global deforestation and plant life have been removed by humans ?
    how does that effect the glacial and ice age ?

    my thought is since everything is melting and the USA is not covered in ice you can argue it being inter-glacial but the generic imputes tends to suggest a transition
    if we are in that transition and thus melting
    we are moving out of it

    versus
    sea level rise ...


    i have listened to scientists debate(documentary's) the amount of potential ice melt at its highest melt point against marginal melt positions.
    the collective interpretation is sea level rise will be sufficient to put those finer details into the rubbish bin when it comes to roughly 70% of the worlds population.

    • speculation as to the total eventual melt rate is irrelevant according to them to the point that sea level rise will be sufficient before then and there is insufficient data to accurate account for sudden massive melting.
    • the err stands on the side of attempting to find why there is sudden massive fast melting in the worlds natural state before most of the plants were removed by humans.
    now when the basic question is asked
    how will massive human climate change impact on that sudden massive melting which has not yet been figured out
    is quite a considerable concern
    could that be the ocean moving under the antarctic ice sheet ?
    if that was a natural sudden change
    the human species as poured rocket fuel into the engine
    inclusive of the other variable question of sea temperature warming

    • sea temperature warming has also had rocket fuel poured into it on discovery of ocean acidification being a massive potential accelerant to ocean warming
    the scientists are soo worried they have been trying to find ways to explain it without freaking people out

    excuse my tone at what appears to me to be evasive quibbling on your part & some other of my personal irl stuff intervening.



     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2021
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  16. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    sculptor said:
    WOW you know how and why we entered this ice age??????????
    You gotta share that knowledge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    (what difference would that make if i did?) = none
    actually
    you would be the only one to know how and why we entered this ice age.
    and
    knowing how and why could help in planing for the future
     
  17. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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  18. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Some guesses are based on thousands of feet of ice cores, hundreds of years of accumulated biological and geological evidence, and well-vetted theory in several scientific disciplines. Others are based on the immediate needs of Republican Party campaign strategists.

    The most likely effects of the current unprecedented rapid atmospheric CO2 boosting are calculations based on research, established laws of physics and chemistry and biology, and careful reasoning about the implications of continually modified and verified hypotheses.

    Meanwhile, we do have some likely and solidly supported explanations for "why" we are (or were) in this ice age (orbital cycles, continental configurations, solar evolution, etc) including why we are experiencing unique trends in the global climate - in particular, why we are not well into the cooling phase of the common geologically represented ice cycles but instead globally warming more rapidly than at any other known time in the entire geological record.
    The fact that the polar ice caps melted in the warm times "before" refreezing in the cold times is not normally considered a mystery.
    https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2...ttom-greenland-sheet-ice-warn-future-melting/

    "Global" and "Greenland" are of course not synonymous - odd how often that has needed repetition on this forum.
     
  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    One of the most popular angles for such strategists is the angle we see here - the "we don't know everything so therefore we don't know anything" angle. Whataboutism, FUD creation, and astroturf "just common sense" campaigns are other ways to support that angle.
     
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  20. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    8,310
    I appreciate your concern
    however
    I consider at least some of it to be ill-founded
    I often reference Marine Isotopic Stage 11/Marine Isotope Stage 11/mis 11
    during which the ice sheet covering Wilkes Basin in East Antarctica may have receded as much as 400 odd miles, raising sea levels by up to 13 feet.
    plan on that
    if
    The proposed 400 odd year solar cycle is accurate
    Then we are in a "superinterglacial"
    and should expect a repeat of the last superinterglacial(mis 11)
    and all
    without the activities of your species
    now
    if
    you can add a definitive number on top of the natural number
    then
    we may be able to understand our species and world's future

    interesting never the less
     
  21. iceaura Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    30,994
    We are already experiencing a warming (and other effects) significantly different from that of mis 11, and have observed the initial operations of a mechanism - a cause of this unique warming - not available at that time.

    If we are also going to be dealing with a repeat of the influences that resulted in mis 11, they will be in addition to the observed and likely consequences of the anthropogenic CO2 boost, which are likely to be more dramatic in themselves than mis 11 in several ways - for example, much more rapid in onset and therefore probably more damaging and less likely to be easily tolerated or handled by us or other affected living beings.
     
  22. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    What's FUD?
     
  23. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695
    Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt - Bill Gates's infamous MO that sunk a number of Microsoft's competitors back in the 80s and 90s.
     
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