The coming decline of America

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by kmguru, Feb 25, 2004.

  1. altec One seeking truth Registered Senior Member

    The fact that Western Civilization is the most oppressive toward it's citizens, and citizens that want nothing to do with it. People are starting to come to terms with this. Can any power or Civilization remain in power when the people stop supporting it? It has nothing to do with breeding; it has to do with opression and tyranny. Plain and simple.

    If it works, why has it bred the most violent, disturbed generations of human beings that have ever existed? How is this success? I bet if you ask the average Joe that is working his ass off for minimum wage to support himself, if he enjoys that and wants it to remain that way he will reply "fuck no". Isn't life about happiness and enjoyment? Dont we need to shrug the burdens of Capitalism and the other un-democratic aspects of this society off for us to find these things within ourselves?

    Statements like that make you look like quite the idiot. If you truly believe that intelligence and superiority go along with social status, you are sadly mistaken. If the 'minorities' of today eventually outnumber the white population, then whouldn't that make us the minority at that point? I assume that you can see that if we follow your logic, the second that the 'minorites' pass up the white population, then the white population immediatley becomes "dumb as dirt". Grow a brain.
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  3. kmguru Staff Member

    You sir, are an idiot trying to put other peoples words in my mouth. It is time for you to grow a brain that works. Apology will be accepted.

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  5. dixonmassey Valued Senior Member

    It is very curious argument. Foreign countries make products, sell them to the US and get crispy $ in exchange. Problem is that US does not produce enough of goods those crispy $ can buy. Effectively, foreigners give away their sweat and labor for free hoping that US will find ways to honor crispy $ with real stuff in the future (fat chance). Entire world trade is a gigantic ponzi scheme kept together on the irrational faith in $. The last foreign sucker stuck with $ will pay for the American over consumption. Therefore, the end of America (if any) will be an unpleasant but far from being terminal experience for the rest of the world. Stopping working for free did not kill anyone yet.
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  7. The beauty of the American system is that while we will suffer pretty badly when the system crashes we will recover faster than might be expected. The entire American system is set up to reward innovation. Other systems do the same thing but it seems like greed permeates America’s culture more thoroughly.
  8. kmguru Staff Member

    I agree to a point. Greed works, because people who have the money get greedy for more and hire people from USA to produce whatever good or service they come up with. Now, if the same greedy people move the innovation overseas so that they can produce stuff cheaper, then, common folks are out of luck. In otherwords, no domestic investment, no jobs....

    The only thing left to do and we do very well is make bombs and missiles...meaning we start more wars and sell more weapons as we did in WWI and WWII.

    We are destroying the old weapons in Iraq and selling them new ones from Iraq's oil money. If that is what you are talking about, you are right. But whether that would improve America....who knows?
  9. GuessWho A Californian Registered Senior Member

    U.S. haters,

    U.S. is the most stable country in the world. If any of you do not like this fact, go pound some sand. If you are still not satisfied after pounding some sand, go pound some more sand!
  10. Pangloss More 'pop' than a Google IPO! Registered Senior Member

    What exactly does "pounding sand" do anyway?

    I've always wondered about that.
  11. GuessWho A Californian Registered Senior Member

    "Pounding sand" makes sand pounded!

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  12. Undecided Banned Banned

    U.S. is the most stable country in the world.

    Actually my bets are on Japan for being the most stable democracy in the world. The EU the most stable socio-economic union, and the US is the world's most stable debtor, it never fails.
  13. sassybeau Registered Member

    Countries are like families through the generations in sense. Though a generation for a country is more like a 100-year cycle. If you look at the way America has advanced you could compare it to a family accumulating wealth and power through its generations. But just like a family of wealth and power the general rules seem to be applying to America. The first generation makes it, the second generation exploits it and the third generation squanders it. In the end power and money are eroded to the point that the legacy is in ruin. Welcome to the third generation in the history of America.
  14. kmguru Staff Member

    Welcome to sciforum sassybeau.

    Is that what happened to the Mayans, Greeks, Romans, Indians, even Argentinians etc many moons ago?

    Do they ever recover? It seems, Indians are trying, Argentina, like Greece and Italy going no where and African never got there.

    Just like families who lost the money and fight among themselve for the next few generations - perhaps the same happens to the countries. People fight among themselves in ignorance. I know a family whose income was $12,500,000 per month in 1930s, but now their grandchildren, the lucky ones, barely make $12,500.
  15. Clockwood You Forgot Poland Registered Senior Member

    It often is referred to as 'packing sand'. It refers to shoving it where the sun doesn't shine. And, no, I have no idea where the insult originated.

    First off, we are an industrialized nation with as good an infrastructure as you will ever see. First World nations rarely fall and never fall for long. Look at post-WWI Germany. It had its industries and infrastructure demolished as far as we could manage and yet they still got up and kicked Europe's asses only a few years later. Once industrialized, always industrialized.

    That isn't to say that we will necessarily remain as the untouchable god of the world. Enough problems could slow us down enough for something to surpass us. We would still have enough advantages to reclaim our rightful place the moment pressure lets up.

    There are only a couple countries that could ever actually compete. The Soviet Union did for a while, though it broke itself doing so, due to its immense resources and citizenry who were basically ordered around like slave labor. China, while with far fewer rescources, has a vastly bigger labor pool. The same might be said for India, but they are a few steps behind in both organization and infrastructure. Japan could have only done it if they had held onto their colonies.

    The rest of the world falls short for one reason or another and just won't make it as a superpower. We can scratch both Africa and South America off the board due to their marginal industrialization and an environment that is generally hostile to human life. Australia is a strip of arable land around a big honking pile of sand, industrialized but lacking resources and population. Russia and the Middle East are too fucked up with internal problems to do anything. Individually, countries in europe are too small to do anything. As the EU, they are too divided and have already burned out most of their resources in previous ages.

    So here America sits. We have the largest agriculture industry anywhere. We are still brimming with natural resources that we still haven't been able to use up since the country was settled. We have an immense amount of usable land still untouched and ready to be put to work. We have companies spread to the four corners of the world, all drawing forth whatever resources we can't produce ourselves. And, while we have been neglecting industry because it is better to get others to do the dirty work for us, we could bring it all back at a moment's notice once it becomes profitable once again.
  16. nirakar ( i ^ i ) Registered Senior Member

    What about Ottoman Turkey? For 100 years 1470 to 1570 they were the world's leading economic and military power. Their time passed. What is it about the industrial / information age that makes you think the phenomena of nations rising and fading in power relative to each other has ended?

    The US governments policy to allow America to first lose it's manufacturing base and now lose it's information technologies base to other nations is as stupid as the mistakes of the Sultans who oversaw the decline of the Ottomans. The exchange rates and image of America seem to be lagging behind reality. America's economy is becomming a hollow economy because global money pouring into America in search of secure stable investments allows America to consume without producing. The money seeking the secure stability of the American financial markets is destabilizing the American economy and therefore will eventually destabilize the American financial markets. Meanwhile the majority of our media pundits and political leaders fiddle while Rome burns.

    If we stop subsidizing our agriculture we will lose much of that also to lower cost nations. We have very good per capita natural resources but so does Congo. We are screwed but we won't see the hard evidence that we are screwed until after the foreign investors realize that their faith in America was misplaced.
  17. Chatha big brown was screwed up Registered Senior Member

    Lets not forget that more than half of the U.S GNP are multinational companies, meaning a decline in the U.S economy is equal to a great decline in the world economy in general. Don't believe me? just look at the NYSE or DOW companies. By this, American investment is largely foreign investment and they play a big part in it. If the royal families and Asian empires pull out of the NYSE the market will suffer, but where else are they going to invest in? is there a better market elsewhere? This is the melting pot of the world in terms of people culture and thus demand, as the saying goes a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush. So this is why everyone is interested in America, not just for America as well but for their own good. I think America's economy has long term plans. Even if the E.U eventually establishes a constitution its economy cannot resemble that of the U.S unless its citizens and ideas are similar. Currently most countries of the E.U like France are largely government oriented, the government keeps an account of everything including subsidies, with little attention paid towards individual capitalism, which is why their immigration terms are still uniquely strict. You can barely find a piece of cheese in France that has not been subsidized by the municipals. In the states everyone is given more economical freedom, which is the reason it can also afford to be an immigrant state. The U.S still has reasons to be the worlds largest economy but why many E.U countries are baffles me because most of them have no real natural resources. If there is a world economic breakdown and we are to fall back on resources the U.S still has an edge compared to the E.U. They have huge reserved of oil for starters, and have now annexed Irag to make a bigger reservior. Finally, through history the one with the biggest guns prospers.With the right leaders of America and an adequate conservative attitude the sky is the limit.
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2005
  18. OliverJ Banned Banned


    Nevermind that the Roman Empire lasted 1500 years. The US is doomed in a little over 200. :bugeye:

  19. Clockwood You Forgot Poland Registered Senior Member

    Actually, the Roman Empire died a number of times. It is just that it was able to get up again time after time. Who says America can't do the same? We are holding nearly all the cards right now.
  20. kmguru Staff Member

    All of you have excellent observations and they all are true. But it is like 3 blindmen describing an elephant (including yours truly). Can we understand the big picture...where are we going?

    Here in America, the government encourages small business development since they are still the backbone of the country or at least has been for hundreds of years. Just in the last 10 years, these PTAC offices that support small business, are headed by idiots who can not connect the dots, meaning their hands are tied such a way that if you have a company in Indiana and want to open an office in Kansas, neither the Kansas nor the Indiana PTAC can help you. Since most businesses today are basically interstate or international, the old system is useless. Same with Small Business Adminstration. It is a place where government dumps all affirmative action reject people in the name of racial harmony. And everyone is afraid to say they are idiots.

    In the name of efficiency and productivity we waste too much money and resources in non-productive work such as pumping out thousands of laws every year and have to hire law givers. The Roman civilization collapsed in the seer weight of these law givers. Then America spends 10% to 13% of its GDP in Healthcare, yet every year people are getting sicker. Today, a 70 year old usually takes 10 types of medicine per day - some more. Even an elephant will die if this type of bleeding continues year after year.

    Then, the outsourcing - for the first time in the last 50 years, the high school graduate does not expect a job in a call center or factory or an engineer in a factory or back office.

    So, where are we going? If disasters ahead, what will save us? Mind you the law makers will keep making more laws, the police department will keep getting bigger, more prisons, the Justice department will get bigger, the military will get really big saying China is a threat but has to buy Chinese arms and computers (what a irony!) and people will get sicker.
  21. Chatha big brown was screwed up Registered Senior Member

    Comapring the Romans to the U.S. The Romans had their resources stretched almost around the globe, which was the ultimate reason for their demise. Furthermore the Romans had no long term plans, I mean these were people who would waste resources on invading a settlement only to leave it the way it was because they had no use for it. First world countries today have to keep imperialism to a minimum if they want to prosper, no question, need I mention global terrorism, domestic crisis, and political instabilities. Obviously through history no single region holds power for too long, but today looks a little different. The world is still in a disastrous cold war region as any nuclear action can make mankind's fate indecisive, its sort of like a stand off game. Nuclear nations are weary of each other and as so immidiately taking care of any other nation even thinking about develoing one, making half the world a nuclear cartel while the other half march as soon as orders or demands are given. What kind of world do we live in when France itself can level half the hemisphere with its nuclear missles? There you are. At the moment China is the greatest threat to any nation; don't get me wrong I love the Chinese, these guys have one of the oldest and most impressive civilization. Little attention has been paid to China until today, they deserve more than they already get. However China used to be the economic super powers of the world twice in history, but failed to make anything tangible from it, partly and sadly because they had no imperialist plans, not even economicaly. Through history economic superiority sadly goes along with imperialism if you are going to sustain it or make a mark on the world, and with technology that journey is a lot shorter today.
  22. kmguru Staff Member

    Two issues. China had the opportunity long ago when they had fleets of ship connecting to many part of the world in trade. But, I can not remember the name of the emperor (see Guns, Germs and Steel) who did not want to go outside of the country since, China was very prosperous at the time. The decline came after that. Same for India who did spice trade from middle east to Thailand but somehow lost that profession.

    It is not Imperialism but trade that made India and China rich, that is because they were large countries with large population that sustained the many products for sell to others.

    With technology, that journey is definitely shorter today. However as our (USA) technology moves to China and India, there is nothing to fill the gap. I just came back from an area economic development meeting. None of the participants wanted to discuss Technology, they wanted to put money in Science, which did provide us with a lot of benefit in the past. The problem is, to convert Science to Technology, now, you have to have it manufactured in China, which they gladly will do and sell it to us - rather than we selling them our products.
  23. Rick Valued Senior Member

    I read the thread all the way through (including my post on India)...Its interesting. I have some thoughts on U.S. drivers currently.

    The way i see it, the strategy of U.S. currently it seems is to control the Oil nations in the world. UAE is U.S.'s friend, Iraq is U.S.,People are already talking off see a pattern developing here?...

    I have heard that Alaska and some places in U.S. have some of the biggest Oil reserves in the world. I bet U.S. is waiting till the oil reserves in middle east blow out to sell them at oh not so attractive prices.

    Job Scenario : Job situation in U.S. is getting better everyday. jobs have been on all time high in recent months and rising (Courtesy: CNN live).

    Research and development : Current objective of several competitve Asian countries are clear cut but they are way too far off than U.S. Let me ellaborate. I was at this conference where Craig Barrett was addressing the ASIAN CEOs, and he gave an interesting insight : India spends about 8 billion dollars (TOTAL) in research and development, Intel Inc. spends 10 times more than that, leave aside U.S. India and other nations are Following U.S. in short. Unless and untill some serious research and innovation is bought about, India and others will merely follow what U.S. is producing or developing. To win is essentially to do things differently and in a much better way, is india doing that? i dont think so.

    If we want to discuss the research and development in U.S, we have to take a look at universites like Stanford and MIT. i have my cousin studying at Stanford, he is a research assistant under a professor who has been researching on Robotic hands since loong time. He tells me that professor has conducted research on hands movement purely by watching subjects for past 5 years and now they are building a perfect emulation of human hand capable of all the stimulation etc. That is the kind of research we are talking off, this was a small example, however most of these top end univ. are doing research of things to come in next 30 years already. and universities like NJIT,USC,UCSD,UWash. etc are doing research on current technology, so eventually U.S. is making sure that most of the new cutting edge technology is here in next decade only introduced in U.S. True eventually a technology will become a commodity, but its that initial competitve advantage that drives U.S. ahead. Silicon valley was nothing in 50s. it was where people like steve jobs grew up. But the technological advances and entire computer revolution started in u.s. only and dot com and god knows how many industries were successful and made US. economy strong.

    Lets not forget, US. is famous for pioneering. the product lines are the most ellaborate in these countries because the customer range is far greater than any country. In india, you have money , but you dont have products on which you'd want your money to go into. In US. money gets short in supply but products are so exhaustive and detailed.

    Computer hardware is a solid example: People in U.S. are already using 100 gig drives more than that. (i use 250 Gigs and i am not a memory geek or anything),in India people use 40 Gigs and still marvel at how much it is. Most of sold computer hardware works in bits and pieces, many people would prefer a computer with less than decent config to run internet applications. and lets not forget 80% of indian subcontinent doesnt actually use computers. In fact china is much better in this sector.

    Indian economy is being projected as in Boom. Boom? are we talking of share markets? yes they are at all time high, but how many people invest money in share markets? they are hardly 2 or 3 per cent. India will only improve if agriculture and education is given top priority. Infrastructure comes next and then innovation. India is jumping into this vogue that U.S. has given to it. The so called software revolution, its facade, the reality is that Indian villages (i know some ) dont even have electricity coming to their houses. In rajastthan(a state), many villages suffer from severe droughts every year, what is being done ? nothing. In gujarat there are floods every year, every year so many people die, what is being done? nothing. Weather dept. of india in my opinion could have warned people of the coast in case of tsunami, but the truth is they dont know anything.

    U.S. is faar off from all the countries because of its unadulterated Education (at University level), which implicates good research, something which India lacks.

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