The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

Get a clue. You don't know jack shit about how the oil industry operates it's business. The only part of the refining process which is oil intensive is unit feedstock. The energy source that will shutdown the process is electrical energy. The plant won't shutdown because the forklift ran out of gas. That would be your car.

 

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Very informative. Especially emphasizing 'glut'.

 

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The US market has the day off tomorrow, but the rest of the world is not off to a good start so far...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...crashes-saudi-stocks-plunge-most-black-monday

Mid-East Massacre: Qatar Crashes, Saudi Stocks Plunge Most Since Black Monday

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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/17/2016 12:41 -0500


Broad middle-east and african stock markets crashed over 5%, erasing any gains back to November 2008 as the carnage from last week continues. From Kuwait (-4.3%) to Qatar (-8%) it was a bloodbath as Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index plunged 5.4% - the most since Black Monday (now down over 50% from their 2014 highs). These losses are far in excess of US 'catch-up' moves and suggest a dark cloud over Asia this evening.


It's been a bloodbath in the Middle-East since the year began...

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Africa/Middle-East Stocks crashed 5%...

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Saudi Arabia's Tadawul Index is down 5.4% on the day - the worst since August's collapse and has lost over 50% since its exuberant peak in 2014...

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---Futilitist

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first-- are the overseas markets even open yet?
and second-- OH MY you have no clue of or about zero hedge huh-- you are clueless of how this guy(i forgot his name) was incarcerated from the fraud and ponzi scheme they had initiated, and is now , only, simply, spewing on a webpage because by law he cannot even touch the markets due to his fraud. look it up-- it is publicly displayed.

 

just a little tidbit--
" The site posts nearly indecipherable analyses of multiple seemingly unrelated subjects to point towards a consistent theme of economic collapse any day now. Tyler seems to repeat The Economic Collapse Blog's idea of posting blog articles many times a day and encouraging people to post it as far and wide as humanly possible. Tyler moves away from the format of long lists to write insanely dense volumes[3] filled with (often contradicting) jargon that makes one wonder if the writers even know what the words actually mean.[4] The site first appeared in early 2009, meaning that (given Tyler's habit of taking a shit on each and every positive data point), anyone listening to him from the beginning missed the entire 2009-2014 rally in the equities market.
The only writer conclusively identified is Dan Ivandjiiski, who conducts public interviews on behalf of Zero Hedge.[5] The blog came online several days after he lost his job at Wexford Capital, a Connecticut-based hedge fund (run by a former Goldman trader). And chose his pen name from a nihilistic psychotic delusion.
Zero Hedge is not quite the NaturalNews of economics, but not for want of trying. "

" Accusations of plagiarism
Tyler has a habit of taking other people's research, sometimes adding a slant to it of economic doom if it isn't there already, and posting it on Zero Hedge.[12] This included a series of reports leaked from Merrill Lynch's chief economist David Rosenberg.[13] Lawyers were sent with takedown notices, and were not moved by his claims of censorshipabout publishing their copyrighted documents. Morgan Stanley had the same issue later, and is considering legal action in addition to demanding the material be taken down.[14] "

" Allegations of "pump and dump" involvement
Ironically, Zero Hedge has itself been accused of some of the manipulation it claims to expose "

" The law firm behind the suit describes Zero Hedge as "a portal for people to anonymously distribute derogatory information concerning public companies," giving the impression that Zero Hedge may well have arranged many such pay-to-defame schemes. "

 

Perhaps...

But, nevertheless, the story is completely accurate, as confirmed by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-august-after-sanctions-relief?bpop=97992772

Mideast Stocks Plummet as Iran Plans to Boost Crude Exports

Stocks across the Middle East tumbled as the easing of sanctions against Iran raised the prospect of a surge in oil supplies to a market already reeling from the lowest prices in more than a decade. Shares in Tehran gained.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dropped 5.4 percent to its lowest level since March 2011. Abu Dhabi’s ADX General Index fell into a so-called bear market.

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Oil's collapse has prompted investors to price the BGCC 200 Index at the deepest discount to emerging markets in almost five years.

Panicked Investors
Egyptian equities extended losses after their worst week since the Arab Spring. The EGX 30 Index fell 1.7 percent to the lowest level since October 2013.

“Local investors are panicking because of the selloff in Gulf markets after oil’s drop last week," said Tamer Ismail, the head of dealing at Cairo Capital Securities. "Low oil prices should be positive for us, but people are ignoring that rationale and exiting the market while they still can.”

The most populous Arab country is a net importer of crude and stands to save on its fuel subsidies bill with lower oil prices. Stock losses prompted the bourse to urge companies on Thursday to expedite the release of their 2015 results to ease "unjustified panic."

Middle East Markets trade on Sunday (Sunday -Thursday). It is currently 1:05 AM, Monday, January 18, 2016 (GMT+3) in Saudi Arabia.



---Futilitist

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" first-- are the overseas markets even open yet? "
" January 16, 2016 — 9:56 PM PSTUpdated on January 17, 2016 — 6:43 AM PST "

" MIDDLE EAST TIME ZONES. In the Middle Eastfour different time zones are used. These timezones span from UTC (GMT) +2 hours to UTC (GMT) +4 hours. Iran sets their standard time as UTC (GMT) +3.5 hours. "

"
Middle East Current Times
Select Country From Menu Below to View Details

BahrainGaza StripIran
Monday
1/18/2016
1:24 AM
UTC+03:00Monday
1/18/2016
12:24 AM
UTC+02:00Monday
1/18/2016
1:54 AM
UTC+03:30

IraqIsraelJordan
Monday
1/18/2016
1:24 AM
UTC+03:00Monday
1/18/2016
12:24 AM
UTC+02:00Monday
1/18/2016
12:24 AM
UTC+02:00

KuwaitLebanonOman
Monday
1/18/2016
1:24 AM
UTC+03:00Monday
1/18/2016
12:24 AM
UTC+02:00Monday
1/18/2016
2:24 AM
UTC+04:00

QatarSaudi ArabiaSyria
Monday
1/18/2016
1:24 AM
UTC+03:00Monday
1/18/2016
1:24 AM
UTC+03:00Monday
1/18/2016
12:24 AM
UTC+02:00

United Arab EmiratesWest BankYemen
Monday
1/18/2016
2:24 AM
UTC+04:00Monday
1/18/2016
12:24 AM
UTC+02:00Monday
1/18/2016
1:24 AM
UTC+03:00

 

Like I said, Middle East markets trade on Sunday.



---Futilitist

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And oil drops another dollar.

Brent Crude Oil is now $28.30



---Futilitist

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For background on the factors driving this, read this, from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35340893

So we have a glut of oil, caused mainly by oversupply, due to geopolitics (Saudi policy and now lifting of sanctions on Iran). This is, apparently, likely to continue for quite a while.

Kondratieff was arguing that a shortage of oil would strangle the world economy. I shall be amused to see by what contorted argument a glut of cheap oil is going to strangle it.

But whatever that argument may be, it is fairly plain that thermodynamics is not preventing the Saudis and the Iranians from extracting and supplying far more than we all need.

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This is totally false. You are being very dishonest.

You linked a BBC article to bolster your stupid argument, but that article does not support your stupid argument.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35340893

Here is what the BBC said was the cause of falling oil prices:

"The drop in the price of oil has been driven by oversupply, mainly due to US shale oil flooding the market."

At the same time, demand has fallen because of a slowdown in economic growth in China and Europe."

The oil price plunge of over 70% so far is certainly not "due to geopolitics". It is due to thermodynamics.



---Futilitist

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That doesn't even make any sense.

 

Nothing dishonest. I quote:

"Investors fear the lifting of Western sanctions on Iran could worsen the existing oversupply problem.
Iran's deputy oil minister Roknoddin Javadi has expressed confidence the country can produce an extra 500,000 barrels per day.

Phillip Futures analyst Daniel Ang said the earlier price drop was due to concerns about Iran. "This means we will be seeing a bigger oil glut with Iranian crude exports coming back to the market," he said."

But anyway it does not matter, oversupply is the issue, not lack of production due to some imbecilic thermodynamic argument in which the energy content of oil is ignored.

 

(me)
" think about this-- what happens when supplies are restrained or cut?
the funny thing is no one has even mentioned such a thing as it is typically done-- for decades now. "

" Historically, Opec has cut production to support prices. But led by Saudi Arabia, by far the group's most powerful member, the group has resolutely refused to trim supply this time. "
i predict that this will change and that they will cut supply as they will see that they are ffucking themselves if they do not--as what is already shown.

" ge·o·pol·i·tics
ˌjēōˈpälədiks/
noun

1. politics, especially international relations, as influenced by geographical factors.
   • the study of geopolitics.
     noun: geopolitics; noun: geo-politics; plural noun: geo-politicses "

agian from ex's article: " Historically, Opec has cut production to support prices. But led by Saudi Arabia, by far the group's most powerful member, the group has resolutely refused to trim supply this time. "

 

"The drop in the price of oil has been driven by oversupply, mainly due to US shale oil flooding the market."
~BBC

We have a glut now, but the oil on the market is currently being sold at a price that is well below the cost of it's production. It was only easy credit that made all of this possible. This cannot be sustained. The world is running out of affordable oil. And that is due to thermodynamics.

Sure it does.



---Futilitist

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and yet the issue is still over supply.

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(shrugs)
also learn something of up-stream and down-stream-- also when supplies are bought and earmarked.
" The world is running out of affordable oil "
as you scream about the low price of oil in your previous sentences. as these articles tell you that opec/iran is only the 4th largest

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(shakes head)

 

in a sense the thoughts should be-- why is iran increasing production when they know very well it will cause prices to drop even further-- it is like why would they want the price to drop even further.

 

Nope. Saudi Arabia and Iran can produce for ~$10/bbl. Read here: http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/24/news/oil-prices-production-costs/

So it's utter rubbish to say it is being produced below cost now. They have a lot of cheap oil, costing $10/bbl, to sell to the world. That is their competitive advantage compared to US shale, and they have decided to use it.

According to you, that is thermodynamically impossible! But of course it would seem so, if you persist in using an imbecile model that treats the thermodynamics the same as for extracting water, ignoring the energy content of the oil produced.

 

I never said the Saudi's don't have some cheap oil. I said that we don't. US oil is currently being sold for less than the cost of it's production. But it's funny you should mention water. I think the Saudi water cut is around 90%. For every 10 barrels they pump, 9 are water and only 1 is oil.

Globally, oil wells produce about 220 million BWPD (barrels of water per day)—roughly three barrels of water for every barrel of oil. In older fields, the water "cut," or ratio-of-water-to-oil, can be 95% or higher. Managing this produced water is a great challenge for operators.

The Etp model deals with the lifting costs of the liquid that comes out of the ground. That cost is the same whether you pump oil or water. That is why the model treats the thermodynamics the same. Get it?

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---Futilitist

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The three laws of thermodynamics are:

• • The first law, also known as Law of Conservation of Energy, states that energy cannot be created or destroyed in a chemical reaction.
  • The second law of thermodynamics states that the entropy of any isolated system not in thermal equilibrium almost always increases.
  • The third law of thermodynamics states that the entropy of a system approaches a constant value as the temperature approaches absolute zero.

Source: Boundless. “The Three Laws of Thermodynamics.” Boundless Chemistry. Boundless, 14 Oct. 2015. From https://www.boundless.com/chemistry...23/the-three-laws-of-thermodynamics-496-3601/

Which refer to the price of oil? As I told you before, Thermodynamics NEVER refers to any material substance or the cost of any. Price of anything, changes with supply and demand, but technology advances can change the supply* or with natural substances found in the earth, new discoveries can change the supply too.

* For example, before the Hall process, aluminum was much more expensive than gold - Why a tiny pyramid of it, instead of gold forms the top of the Washington Momentum.