# The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

Discussion in 'The Cesspool' started by Futilitist, Aug 24, 2015.

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1. ### billvonValued Senior Member

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I have a much, much stronger algorithm than Futilitist has. I predict that oil prices will go up or down in the future by some percentage. I can't tell you what the percentage is, and I can't tell you the direction, because it is a secret. But I am confident that my algorithm will eat the ETP algorithm for breakfast, because it is based on science and math, and those are never wrong. My algorithm will ensure that future generations can sleep confidently in the knowledge that oil prices will go up or down.

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3. ### brucepValued Senior Member

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Or hail or not hail or get wiped out by tornado or not get wiped out by tornado. Great model.

5. ### Russ_WattersNot a Trump supporter...Valued Senior Member

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US oil production not dropping fast enough to ease supply glut:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/investing/us-oil-production-decline-eia/index.html

7. ### FutilitistThis so called forum is a fraud...Registered Senior Member

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CNN slants the exact same news to suit any argument. The story you picked blames the Saudis for the glut. Here is one that puts the blame squarely on US fracking:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/24/investing/fracking-shale-oil-boom/?iid=EL

The rise of fracking has reshaped the global energy landscape.

It recently hit a new milestone in the U.S. Fracking now accounts for more than half of all U.S. oil output, according to the Energy Information Administration. It's a stunning feat considering fracking made up less than 2% of American oil production in 2000.

Hydraulic fracturing technology, more commonly known as "fracking," paved the way for drilling into America's enormous shale deposits. It has fueled a dramatic boom in U.S. oil production.

Back in 2000, there were just 23,000 fracking wells pumping about 102,000 barrels of oil a day. Now there are 300,000 fracking wells, churning out 4.3 million barrels per day.

Fracking "has allowed the United States to increase its oil production faster than at any time in its history," the EIA said in recent report.

U.S. output has nearly doubled over the past decade and America only trails Saudi Arabia and Russia globally.

That surge in American crude is one of the main reasons why there is a global glut in oil that keeps getting worse. The excess supply caused oil prices to peak in mid-2014 and crash as much as 75% since then.

"Prices are where they are because shale has been so phenomenally successful. It's changed the whole pricing paradigm," said Tamar Essner, director of Nasdaq's energy team.

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And what is your point anyway, Russ? It doesn't matter who started the glut. The real issue is that it isn't ending any time soon. That means lower oil prices, and that is not good news.

But it is totally consistent with my forecast!

Didn't you say that oil would be around $90 a barrel by now? ---Futilitist Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Last edited: Apr 7, 2016 8. ### krash661[MK6] transitioning scifi to realityValued Senior Member Messages: 2,973 actually no, what it actually means is that you have no experience in global economics and are simply just spewing an abundance of pretending, fictitious, knowledge. comical--except the reality is clearly displayed and not your institutionalized delusions of such. 9. ### Russ_WattersNot a Trump supporter...Valued Senior Member Messages: 5,051 Those articles do not contradict each other, you just aren't understanding what you are reading. I've explained it before, but you didn't listen then and you won't listen now: Fracking caused the initial supply glut. Up until 2014, OPEC regulated production to keep prices high. They stopped, so prices fell. They hoped and most analysts expected that fracking would slow down rapidly and prices would rise again. They haven't. 10. ### FutilitistThis so called forum is a fraud...Registered Senior Member Messages: 1,586 Oh, I get it now. That's your lame excuse for your lame prediction. Yes, you and most analysts were wrong. But I was right. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! ---Futilitist Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! 11. ### Russ_WattersNot a Trump supporter...Valued Senior Member Messages: 5,051 Of course you were. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! A most excellent apocalypse this has been so far. I hope it keeps getting worse and worse! krash661 likes this. 12. ### FutilitistThis so called forum is a fraud...Registered Senior Member Messages: 1,586 Well, since there is no end in sight for the oil glut, and since low oil prices are very bad for the economy, I think you will definitely get what you hope for. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! ---Futilitist Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! 13. ### Russ_WattersNot a Trump supporter...Valued Senior Member Messages: 5,051 I agree with almost all of that. 14. ### FutilitistThis so called forum is a fraud...Registered Senior Member Messages: 1,586 Awesome! After more than 4 years of hardcore denial, you are finally starting to understand the seriousness of the situation we all face. ---Futilitist Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! 15. ### FutilitistThis so called forum is a fraud...Registered Senior Member Messages: 1,586 "It was affordable at$100 and will be again at 100."
~Russ_Watters
Jan. 19 2016

When do you figure that will happen, Russ?

---Futilitist

16. ### exchemistValued Senior Member

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Only a fool would attempt to predict the geopolitics that will ultimately determine that.

But I think it is great that you are now talking at least in terms of current low prices being caused by a glut of oil - whether due to the .Saudis, the Iranians or the US. That is progress.

17. ### FutilitistThis so called forum is a fraud...Registered Senior Member

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Geopolitics are irrelevant when it comes to forecasting the future price of oil. That is why I am relying on thermodynamics, instead. Based on the second law of thermodynamics, the Etp model forecasts that the yearly average price of oil will fall to around \$11 a barrel by 2021.

Though the price of oil is largely determined by the laws of physics, not geopolitics, the economic dilemma of a continuously falling oil price will be the cause of great geopolitical chaos, which will likely just make things a lot worse than even the Etp forecast would indicate. This is a positive feedback of collapse.

I have been saying all along that we are having an oil glut! I have been consistently saying the same thing since beginning of this thread, and you know it. Quit trying to start over on every page to fake out the readers. It is very intellectually dishonest. And there is a trail of 65 pages of your crap, so if the readers were to look, they would see that you are obviously just faking. How much do you get paid to do this?

---Futilitist

Last edited: Apr 8, 2016
18. ### exchemistValued Senior Member

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9,419
But, but, but......... what about nested control volumes? Surely they come into it somewhere, don't they?

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19. ### originIn a democracy you deserve the leaders you elect.Valued Senior Member

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I don't know, it sure seems like you weren't right when you confidently proclaimed this.
I wondered how you would react to being wrong, yet again. I guess it should come as no surprise that you have decided that you will ignore reality and just continue to claim that you are always right.

By the way anyone with more than half a brain knows that we are going to run out of oil. What we disagree with is your idea that the fall of civilization is within months of happening (which you have been saying for years) and your trust in the EPT 'model' (which is complete crap).

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20. ### originIn a democracy you deserve the leaders you elect.Valued Senior Member

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Oh boy! We get to go down woo-woo lane to the land of conspiracy theories now.....

21. ### krash661[MK6] transitioning scifi to realityValued Senior Member

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hilarious--you are endlessly showing how you, clearly, do not have a clue of how typical this scenario is and how often it has happened over decades of time.

22. ### krash661[MK6] transitioning scifi to realityValued Senior Member

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(shakes head)--OH mY-- you are seriously clueless and pathetic.

23. ### krash661[MK6] transitioning scifi to realityValued Senior Member

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hmm odd-- this ETP(which has collapsed functions from the beginning) forecast has changed(which can be easily linked to show this change)-- how typical..