The trial

Discussion in 'Politics' started by sculptor, Feb 9, 2021.

  1. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    19,501
    Nope. 330 million citizens, 74 million votes for Trump - that means about 22% of the citizens voted for Trump.
    Again, no. No one in the senate voted for Trump this week. 43% of the senators voted to not convict him of high crimes.
    Agreed there. But just as a tumor is a symptom of metastatic disease, there is value in removing it.
     
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  3. arfa brane call me arf Valued Senior Member

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    Is the Trump whatever-it-was, really over?
    What do think about Mitch McConnell and his "appropriately contradictory" statements, does he really think Trump will be facing civil actions in court? If he really believed he was guilty enough, like he seemed to actually be saying, why vote not guilty in the Senate? What the hell happened here?

    Is "Honest Mitch" really just saying he had to cover his ass, and claim the Senate trial was procedurally faulty?
     
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  5. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    QQ:

    The 34% who decided not to vote (or who were unable to vote for other reasons) may or may not have concerns about the constitution, Trump's acquittal, or other things. Or they may not. There's no way to know unless you poll them or otherwise ask them.

    What we do know is that those who were not prevented from voting, but who freely chose not to, didn't mind if Trump got in over Biden or any other candidate. If they had any political concerns about who is President, they chose not to express them by exercising their democratic right to vote.

    Some would have chosen not to vote out of ignorance. Some out of apathy. Some out of a misguided belief that their vote would make no difference. Some because they believe they have no interest in the goverance of their nation. Some because they mistakenly believe it makes no difference who represents them (or that nobody represents them).

    There appear to be no grounds for drawing any general conclusion that most of the 34% of non-voters would be upset about Trump's acquittal. They were happy enough to have him as President for another four years - happy enough not to vote for any alternative, anyway.
     
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  7. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Yes, in terms of what I wrote about the Presidency. Joe Biden is now President, as from 20 January this year. Look it up.

    Trump himself is still around, of course, as a "private citizen" for now. It remains to be seen whether his star will fade over the next couple of years, whether his supporters and his party will keep the faith, or start to wake up. Given its current makeup, I don't hold out high hopes for the Republican Party.
    Trump will almost certainly be facing various court actions in the near future. An action is afoot in Georgia, regarding his attempts to manipulate the votes there. He is also very likely to be prosecuted for various matters relating to his tax affairs. He might very well be tied up in court for quite some time over the next few years.

    McConnell said today, or yesterday, that he doesn't care whether the people in his party support Trump or not. He said all he cares about is "electability". His primary concern is that the Republicans control the Congress, preferably both houses, but at least the senate. Obviously, he'd also prefer a Republican president, too.

    He didn't vote "guilty" because to do so would be to risk censure from his own party and his own electors. He was conflicted, because he is smart enough to recognise that, obviously, there was no question of Trump's guilt. His own wife resigned following the events of 6 January. But there was no way McConnell was willing to badly damage his chances of re-election, or his position of authority in his party, by voting "guilty". He needed a way out, where he could try to justify his vote on procedural grounds rather than on the matters of fact. He picked a justification that doesn't work, but you can be sure that his actual reasoning won't matter to a large proportion of his supporters. The main thing is that he is on the record on the side of "not guilty", for Trump.

    It's not like McConnell has suddenly changed. He has been steadfastly loyal to Trump for at least the past 4 years, standing by and never criticising Trump. In practical terms, his post-trial comments on Trump's obvious guilt may be his attempt to try to hint at the possibility that his party could break from Trump, but he dares not openly defy Trump and his supporters. He needs their votes. He won't risk the Republican party splitting into separate pro-Trump and anti-Trump parties. The result of that would be that the Republicans wouldn't hold power again for generations.
     
  8. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,055
    Perhaps I am reaching a little but the American culture that I know is, compared to Australia, highly patriotic. From an early age USA pride, via the constitution, history etc is indoctrinated and so are the fears associated with tyranny and any threat to the 2nd amendment.

    One could suggest that abstaining from voting when eligible to do so would demonstrate a lack of patriotism, but this is a poor association when compared to the indoctrination in USA pride from the get go.

    Most USA eligible voters therefore would be deeply troubled by the graphic videoed insurrection and would perceive a threat against the very foundations of their "pride" perpetrated by the politicians they are apathetic about and they may choose to motivate themselves towards action.

    The acquittal of Trump, when the evidence was so blatantly strong, reinforces and confirms the idea that truth and justice are an illusion subject to the manipulation of disingenuous and morally corrupt politicians further validating their apathy to the political processes and validates that their patriotic foundations are being threatened.

    Basically, while they may endure and accept the moral corruption of politicians they may not accept the destruction of the foundation of their USA pride.

    When a President regardless of party allegiance incites insurrection he can be perceived as threatening them directly. They could easily conclude that the Union of states is no longer a worthwhile endeavor with growing calls for succession from a flawed federal system being the outcome.

    Suffice to say that such a travesty as demonstrated will come with a cost, a cost that may be quite significant.

    ...but again I may be reading too much into it all and over reaching in my assessment.
     
  9. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    A YouGov poll of 1397 registered voters was taken in the immediate aftermath of the events of 6 January.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/01/06/US-capitol-trump-poll

    62% of respondents perceived a threat to democracy, but only 27% of Republican respondents saw it that way, with 68% of Republicans saying otherwise.

    In fact, many Republicans (45%) actively supported the actions of those at the Capitol, although as many expressed their opposition (43%).

    Overall, one in five voters (21%) said they supported the goings-on at the Capitol. Those who believed Trump's Big Lie about electoral fraud were especially likely to feel that the events were justified, at 56%.

    At that time, 55% of voters agreed that President Trump was “a great deal to blame” for the actions of those who charged the Capitol, with another 11% saying he is “somewhat to blame”. About four in ten (42%) also said that the Congressional Republicans who said that they would vote against certifying the election results were “a great deal to blame”, and another 20% thought they were “somewhat to blame”. 52% of Republicans said that Joe Biden was "a great deal to blame" for the events, compared to 28% for Trump and 26% for Congressional Republicans who opposed certification of the election results.

    85% of Republicans said that Trump should not be immediately removed from office, as compared to 42% of voters overall.

    About half (52%) of voters agreed with the “extremist” label for those who stormed the Capitol. Nearly as many (49%) thought “domestic terrorists” was an appropriate title, and 41% considered them “criminals.”

    About one in seven (15%) agreed that those people were “patriots”, although that rose to 30% of Republicans and 40% among those who believed the Big Lie.
     
  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    It's rather amazing isn't it?... so many consider the deaths of 6 or so persons to be somehow.... hmm...excusable and politically acceptable..
     
  11. Jeeves Valued Senior Member

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    4,881
    Accepting the death of strangers as inevitable collateral damage to pretty much anything has also become part of the culture. All the glorious past exploits of American heroes involve violent death. Remember the Alamo! Then add the daily fare of popular entertainment and video games, then look at the 24-hour news broadcasts. Death is routine. Six is a tiny number compared to the daily toll of cars, snack food, prescription drugs, neighbourhood altercations and influenza. A small price to pay for ...
    whatever it is we want to take back from whoever we accused of stealing it.
     
  12. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    19,501
    Unless, of course, there are four deaths in a place like Benghazi. Then they are more important than Jesus himself, and it must never be forgotten, ever.
     
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  13. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    (A) ergo, the word accurately
    (B) perhaps you meant populist?
     
  14. Jeeves Valued Senior Member

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    4,881
    What's that about? Oh, yeah okay, there's a movie . Once there's a movie, we can remember - a version of events.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2021
  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,055
    You have highlighted why I do not take most polls seriously... a poll population of only 1397 registered voters is a ridiculously small and may or may not be representative of the 239million involved overall.
    I have visited yourgov.com before and am far from happy with their product. The fact that they are prepared to present a poll with such a small sample population as credible says many things, especially as it was probably an online poll and not a truly random sampling.

    So I question it's value.. especially as it refers to only one death occuring and was taken before enough information was available to the public to form an opinion of worth.
     
  16. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Yes. That's what I meant. Thanks for the correction. Although "popularist" isn't too far off the mark.
     
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  17. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Fortunately, the pollsters have provided us with the following useful information about their methodology:

    The survey was carried out through YouGov Direct. Data is weighted on age, gender, education level, political affiliation and ethnicity to be nationally representative of adults in the United States. The margin of error is approximately 3.3% for the overall sample.

    1400 people isn't a small number of people. As long as they were selected randomly enough, and the weighting was done appropriately, it is likely to be a representative sample, within the quoted margin of error.

    A different poll, taken yesterday, says that 58% of Americans polled believe that Trump should have been convicted by the Senate. I haven't looked yet, but I'm betting that the ones who said he shouldn't have been convicted are far more likely to vote Republican.

    Bear in mind that different companies are running polls all the time. When a whole lot of polls produce essentially the same results, it becomes reasonable to assume that the polls aren't inaccurate.
     
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  18. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,055
    But what they do not tell you is what is important....
    The poll you linked to was not qualified by the fact that the population being surveyed were not properly informed (1 death for example) and as such the poll is more about ignorance than knowledge.
    The poll tells us what people thought immediately after the insurrection and was taken too early to be useful.
    The point being that the poll did not state that the survey population was ill-informed and should be read with that in mind.
    Another issue is how they actually select the 1400 odd persons that are to be surveyed (?)

    The poll was taken just too early to make any sense of it all....they needed to wait a few days as news of actual fatalities started to come through and the dust had settled a little. IMO
    I would anticipate that as the gravity of what occurred and the subsequent mock trial, sinks in, the figures discovered may end up being more severe than only 58% in favor of conviction.
    The next few weeks may prove rather interesting indeed...
    Trump's betrayal of the Republican party, the USA constitution and his ongoing use of intimidation is not going to end well for any one...is my speculation.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2021
  19. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Huh? The Republican Party has had his back all the way. It isn't distancing itself from him, for the most part. Quite the opposite, actually.
     
  20. Bells Staff Member

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    23,779
    What?

    Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said Donald Trump remains the party’s “most potent force” even after his second impeachment, and suggested Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hurt the GOP by blaming the former president for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

    “The Trump movement is alive and well,” Graham, one of Trump’s most consistent allies, said on “Fox News Sunday.” “All I can say is the most potent force in the Republican Party is President Trump. We need Trump-plus.”

    [https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/02...-republican-party-force-lindsey-graham-says/]
     
  21. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,055
    I am not so sure about that....
    • Trump lost the House of Reps
    • Trump lost the Senate
    • Trump lost the Presidency..
    • Trump inspired threats against his own Republican VIP and insurrection against his own government. GOP included.
    • Trump forced the Republican party into a corner.
    • Trump is about forming a new party. "The Patriot party" causing further division with in the GOP.
    Looks like he is deliberately hell bent on destroying the Republican party to me...

    Google : The patriot party
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2021
  22. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    23,055
    can you check your link to the Boston Globe... it doesn't appear to be working...
     
  23. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    35,782
    That's because enough Americans were sensible enough to vote for Biden instead of for Trump. Not by much, but enough.

    Of course, the electoral contest wouldn't have been nearly as a close as it was if the electorates weren't heavily jerrymandered by the Republicans, if Republican efforts to suppress the vote of certain communities in certain districts weren't so determined, and so on.

    All but 7 of the Republican senators did not consider that Trump's abandonment of his own Vice President to a lynch mob that he (Trump) has called to the Capitol was reason enough to convict him.

    No. It went willingly.

    During the primaries in 2016 there was some resistance to Trump from within the Party, but a lot of the people who were "never Trumpers" back then came around. Lindsey Graham is a case in point.

    Trump had the endorsement of the Republican Party to run for president, and it's membership and representatives, with a few exceptions, have kowtowed to him for the past 4 years, and continue to do so now.

    He'll probably be talked out of it. If he can't be, both the GOP and Trump's party (whatever he calls it) will have zero chance of capturing the presidency in 2023.
    Only if it decides to change course and not do as he wants.

    If I had to guess, I'd say that mutual self-interest will win. There'll be no new Trump party. Just the GOPT (Good Old Party of Trump).

    Of course, a few years is a long time in politics. The Republicans could, if they wanted to, consign Trump to irrelevancy. I don't think they're likely to read the answers blowing in the wind in this electoral cycle, though. Maybe their eyes will clear after they lose the 2023 election.
     

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