The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

Billy T · Dec 31, 2013

Not the French Revolution reaction yet but the very rich are skating on increasingly thinner ice:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-30/americans-on-wrong-side-of-income-gap-run-out-of-means-to-cope.html said:

As the gap between the rich and poor widened over the last three decades, families at the bottom found ways to deal with the squeeze on earnings. Housewives joined the workforce. Husbands took second jobs and labored longer hours. Homeowners tapped into the rising value of their properties to borrow money to spend. Those strategies finally may have run their course as women’s participation in the labor force has peaked and the bursting of the house-price bubble has left many Americans underwater on their mortgages.

“We’ve exhausted our coping mechanisms,” said Alan Krueger, an economics professor at Princeton University in New Jersey and former chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. “They weren’t sustainable.”
The result has been a downsizing of expectations. By 64 percent to 33 percent -- Americans say the U.S. no longer offers everyone an equal chance to get ahead, according to the latest Bloomberg National Poll. The lack of faith is especially pronounced among those making less than $50,000 a year, with close to three-quarters in the Dec. 6-9 survey saying the economy is unfair.

Adding to challenges for lower-income individuals is the loss of unemployment benefits, which were supporting 1.3 million long-term jobless people in the U.S. before their expiration Dec. 28. ... The diminished expectations have implications for the economy. Workers are clinging to their jobs as prospects fade for higher-paying employment. Households are socking away more money and charging less on credit cards. And young adults are living with their parents longer rather than venturing out on their own.

In the meantime, record-high stock prices are enriching wealthier Americans, exacerbating polarization and bringing income inequality to the political forefront. “The basic bargain at the heart of our economy has frayed,” Obama said in a Dec. 4 speech in Washington. “This is the defining challenge of our time: Making sure our economy works for every working American.” “The American dream is certainly more in doubt than in decades,” House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio said in response to Obama’s speech.

Income inequality has been rising more or less steadily since the mid-1970s. The Gini coefficient, a broad-based measure of inequality, stood at a record high last year, according to Census Bureau data dating back 46 years. The disparity has widened since the recovery began in mid-2009.
The richest 10 percent of Americans earned a larger share of income last year than at any time since 1917, according to Emmanuel Saez, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley.
{Billy T insert: US's Gini is far worse than all other advanced modern nations. Three of the four with best Gini are Scandinavians and have ~1/2 the debt to GDP ratio of the US! - They, not the US, are doing thing right by their people with very few getting extremely rich. But hey, they are socialist with free education, free quality health care and at least 3 years longer life expectancies than in the US and we all know that a quasi-socialistic government is BAD, BAD, BAD.}

Economists have posited a variety of explanations for the growing differences in incomes. Manufacturing companies moved once high-paying jobs abroad, to China and elsewhere. Technological advances led to the loss of clerical and office work, especially relating to routine tasks. The decline of unions -- 11.3 percent of workers were represented in 2012 compared with 20.1 percent in 1983 -- has advantaged bosses at the expense of their employees.
{Billy T insert: Nice try, but why does that not impact the Scandinavians also? IMO, the fundamental difference is US has local funding of primary education so schools in most poor neighborhoods are terrible if not actually dangerous to attend. Why would a well qualified teacher work there for less pay and real chance of being mugged or raped?}

“The middle has really collapsed,” said Lawrence Katz, an economics professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and a former chief economist at the Labor Department in Washington. Even those with college degrees are having trouble keeping up, he said. While they earn more than those with less schooling, they’ve seen no real wage growth in recent years. The median income of men 25 years of age and older with a bachelor’s degree was $56,656 last year, 10 percent less than in 2007 after taking account of inflation, according to Census data.

It’s the richest of the rich who are reaping the most benefit as an increasingly interconnected and technologically sophisticated world puts a premium on those perceived to have the highest skills -- a phenomenon dubbed “winner take all” by Cornell University Professor Robert Frank.
Government policies also play a role. The Treasury Department, for instance, taxes capital gains racked up by the wealthy on the sale of shares, bonds and other assets at about half the rate of ordinary income. The top 1 percent captured 95 percent of the gains in incomes in the first three years of the recovery, based on analysis of tax returns by Saez.

Those less well-off, meanwhile, are running out of ways to cope. The percentage of working-age women who are in the labor force steadily climbed from a post-World War II low of 32 percent to a peak of 60.3 percent in April 2000, fueling a jump in dual-income households and helping Americans deal with slow wage growth for a while. Since the recession ended, the workforce participation rate for women has been in decline, echoing a longer-running trend among men. November data showed 57 percent of women in the labor force and 69.4 percent of men.

Women who became unemployed during the recession and its aftermath have been slower to find new positions. Among women losing jobs they’d held for at least three years between January 2009 and the end of 2011, 50 percent were re-employed by the start of 2012, while the share for men was 61 percent, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released in February. Households turned to stepped-up borrowing to help make ends meet, until that avenue was shut off by the collapse of house prices. About 10.8 million homeowners still owed more money on their mortgages than their properties were worth in the third quarter, according to Seattle-based Zillow Inc.

Millennials -- adults aged 18 to 32 -- are still slow to set out on their own more than four years after the recession ended, according to an Oct. 18 report by the Pew Research Center in Washington. Just over one in three head their own households, close to a 38-year low set in 2010. ... The wage-gap debate has reverberated to other parts of Washington, as the SEC published a rule Sept. 18 that would compel public companies to reveal pay ratios between chief executives and their employees. While businesses have decried the requirement as overreach, some investors welcome the data as a way to help assess a company’s health.

“Income inequality and a shrinking middle class are real and important issues that our country needs to address,” Michael J. Sacks, chief executive officer of Chicago-based Grosvenor Capital Management, which oversees $23.8 billion in assets, said in a comment letter to the agency. The pay ratio data “can be helpful in allowing investors to more accurately judge the effect of pay structure on company performance, inform investors’ votes on executive pay and help regulators.” Across companies in the S&P 500, the average multiple of CEO compensation to that of rank-and-file workers is 204, up 20 percent since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg in April.
{Billy T insert: I'm not sure but think it is about 6 in Scandinavia, certainly less than 5% of 204}

The Fed also has been caught up in the debate over growing income disparities. Lawmakers from both parties have questioned whether its bond-buying policy, called quantitative easing, has benefited the rich at the expense of those less well-off by boosting prices of stocks and other assets.
“Wall Street is roaring and Main Street is struggling,” Representative Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican and chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said in an interview. “Quantitative easing has really exacerbated income inequality.”

The S&P 500 stock index has risen 29 percent in 2013. The richest third of U.S. households account for 89 percent of all equities ownership, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Janet Yellen, nominated to take over as Fed chairman next year, defended the central bank’s actions at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Nov. 14. “The policies we’ve undertaken have been meant to generate a robust recovery,” Yellen told the committee.

The growing calls for action to reduce income inequality have translated into a national push for a higher minimum wage. Fast-food workers in 100 cities took to the streets Dec. 5 to demand a $15 hourly salary. Latoya Caldwell, 30, of Kansas City, Missouri, is among those who took part. She’s been employed at a Wendy’s Co. restaurant for six years and earns the state’s minimum wage of $7.35 an hour. Working 25 to 30 hours a week, she has asked for more shifts to help support her four children, with whom she lives in one bedroom of her aunt’s house.

More older workers -- including one over 65 years -- as well as college-educated are joining her team, showing that rough economic times have swelled the ranks beyond the typical teenager at the register, Caldwell said. “We’re making barely enough to even survive,” Caldwell said. “We’re not even surviving -- we’re dependent on state assistance while our CEO makes $5.8 million and he’s sitting in an office.”
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Billy T · Jan 3, 2014

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The real unemployment number may soon "stand up" (via riots?)
Title of Bloomberg article is: "1.3 Million People Lost Unemployment Benefits. It Could Get Ugly!"

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-02/emergency-unemployment-benefits-ended-dec-dot-28#r=rss said:

When Congress reconvenes on Jan. 6, one of the first issues it will take up is whether to renew an emergency federal unemployment program that expired on Dec. 28, cutting off 1.3 million jobless workers. Enacted in 2008 at the start of the recession, it provided up to 47 weeks of benefits for those still looking for work when their state unemployment benefits ran out. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he’ll try to pass a temporary extension, but most Republicans have balked at the $25 billion-a-year cost. If the program isn’t revived, the impact could be significant—not just for the 1.3 million people losing a vital lifeline but on the broader economy.

How will these workers fare? One place to look for answers is North Carolina. Last February, at the behest of the business community, Republican Governor Pat McCrory signed a bill cutting the amount and duration of state jobless benefits, even though North Carolina’s unemployment rate ranked among the highest in the country. The state had exhausted its unemployment trust fund, paid for by business taxes, and had borrowed $2.5 billion from the federal government to pay jobless claims. “We’re going to pay down that debt, make the system solvent, and provide an economic climate that allows businesses, large and small, to put people back to work,” McCrory said at the time. When the new law took effect on July 1, the maximum weekly benefit fell from $535 to $350 and its duration fell to between 12 and 20 weeks (depending on the state’s unemployment rate) from 26 weeks—the standard in most other states.

That was only half the blow. Reducing state benefits violated the terms of the federal program—which is intended to supplement, not replace, state aid—so workers in North Carolina were also disqualified from receiving federal benefits. In essence, the state’s experience over the last six months is a harbinger of what may be in store for the rest of the country. “This doesn’t have to be a thought experiment, because you can just look at what’s happened in North Carolina,” says Aaron Chatterji, an economist at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business. “The 1.3 million people losing their benefits are going to be in the same position as the 170,000 people here who have lost theirs.”
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PS: Just to help kill a false stereo-type, note there is only one or two (or possible three?) blacks in this demonstration photo above.

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Billy T · Jan 4, 2014

joepistole said: ↑

That is hogwash Billy T. Where is the evidence to support your claim the Federal Reserve told Germany it couldn't have its gold back right away and would need to wait 7 years and suggesting that the Fed didn't have the gold? ...
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here that "hog wash" is direct from the Germany's Central bank's original announcement:

http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Themen/2013/2013_01_16_bundesbank_verlagert_teile_der_goldreserven.html (but translated to English by Google) said:

At a press conference on 16 January 2013 provided the federal bench in front of their new concept for storage of the German gold reserves . As of 2020, half of the gold in vaults at home, store the other half with partner banks in New York and London. Following the approximately 70 journalists present had its first opportunity to be in a study of gold bars here .

" The two most important functions of the gold reserves are building confidence in the domestic and the ability to exchange within a very short time gold to gold trading centers abroad in foreign currencies ," said board member Carl -Ludwig Thiele. The intended future distribution of gold stocks - one half at home , the other half to the major gold trading centers abroad - wear this account functions. By 2020, gradually 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Frankfurt and 374 tons of Paris to be relocated to Frankfurt.
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Here it is in the origial German:
“Auf einer Pressekonferenz am 16. Januar 2013 stellte die Bundesbank ihr neues Konzept zur Lagerung der deutschen Goldbestände vor. Ab 2020 soll die Hälfte des Goldes in Tresoren im Inland, die andere Hälfte bei Partnernotenbanken in New York und London lagern. Im Anschluss hatten die rund 70 anwesenden Journalisten erstmalig die Möglichkeit, bei einer Prüfung von Goldbarren dabei zu sein.
„Die beiden wichtigsten Funktionen der Goldreserven sind die Vertrauensbildung im Inland und die Möglichkeit, binnen kürzester Zeit Gold an Goldhandelsplätzen im Ausland in Fremdwährungen umtauschen zu können“, erklärte Vorstandsmitglied Carl-Ludwig Thiele. Die beabsichtigte künftige Verteilung der Goldbestände – die eine Hälfte im Inland, die andere Hälfte an den wichtigsten Goldhandelsplätzen im Ausland – trage diesen Funktionen Rechnung. Bis 2020 werden dazu schrittweise 300*Tonnen Gold von New York nach Frankfurt und 374*Tonnen von Paris nach Frankfurt verlagert.”

Germany is to get all its 300 tonnes back only by 2020. It does not get more official than the 16January 2012 press release by Germny's central bank to an assembly of 70 journalists but no doubt you will still claim my statement is "hog wash" instead of appoligize for your frequently repeated BS and you continue to refuse to give the link the Bloomberg you claimed to be quoting from.

Summary you are a well demonstrated / proven to be a bull shitter and LIER.

BTW, I can note for about the 8th time, that I only quoted (and gave links to) two different sources say Germany would not get all the gold it wanted back until 2020. I NEVER SAID THE WORDS YOU STUFFED IN MY MOUTH (a very common habit you have) about me claiming "the Federal Reserve told Germany it couldn't have its gold back right away and would need to wait 7 years"

I did demonstrate in a series of very fact filled posts that all 300 tonnes could be delivered to Frankfurt in less than 12 hours by only 4 of the US's 224 C-17 heavy lift cargo planes and asked you why you thought the Gemans had to wait 7 years to get that gold back. I (and many others) speculated that one reason might be that the US has encumbered the gold via leases to others. That speculation is strengthened by fact no independent audit has been allowed for SIX DECADES! Congressman Ron Paul tried hard for years to get a new independent audit done but was "stonewalled" by the administration. That does make one wonder what they must hide.

BTW there is at the quote's source a link to an 8:46 minute video of the German fault in Frankfurt, which is waiting for the gold. This is a direct link to that video:
http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Videos/gold_im_tresor.html

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joepistole · Jan 4, 2014

Billy T said: ↑

here that "hog wash" is direct from the Germany's Central bank's original announcement:
Here it is in the origial German:
“Auf einer Pressekonferenz am 16. Januar 2013 stellte die Bundesbank ihr neues Konzept zur Lagerung der deutschen Goldbestände vor. Ab 2020 soll die Hälfte des Goldes in Tresoren im Inland, die andere Hälfte bei Partnernotenbanken in New York und London lagern. Im Anschluss hatten die rund 70 anwesenden Journalisten erstmalig die Möglichkeit, bei einer Prüfung von Goldbarren dabei zu sein.
„Die beiden wichtigsten Funktionen der Goldreserven sind die Vertrauensbildung im Inland und die Möglichkeit, binnen kürzester Zeit Gold an Goldhandelsplätzen im Ausland in Fremdwährungen umtauschen zu können“, erklärte Vorstandsmitglied Carl-Ludwig Thiele. Die beabsichtigte künftige Verteilung der Goldbestände – die eine Hälfte im Inland, die andere Hälfte an den wichtigsten Goldhandelsplätzen im Ausland – trage diesen Funktionen Rechnung. Bis 2020 werden dazu schrittweise 300*Tonnen Gold von New York nach Frankfurt und 374*Tonnen von Paris nach Frankfurt verlagert.”

Germany is to get all its 300 tonnes back only by 2020. It does not get more official than the 16January 2012 press release by Germny's central bank to an assembly of 70 journalists but no doubt you will still claim my statement is "hog wash" instead of appoligize for your frequently repeated BS and you continue to refuse to give the link the Bloomberg you claimed to be quoting from.

Summary you are a well demonstrated / proven to be a bull shitter and LIER.

BTW, I can note for about the 8th time, that I only quoted (and gave links to) two different sources say Germany would not get all the gold it wanted back until 2020. I NEVER SAID THE WORDS YOU STUFFED IN MY MOUTH (a very common habit you have) about me claiming "the Federal Reserve told Germany it couldn't have its gold back right away and would need to wait 7 years"

I did demonstrate in a series of very fact filled posts that all 300 tonnes could be delivered to Frankfurt in less than 12 hours by only 4 of the US's 224 C-17 heavy lift cargo planes and asked you why you thought the Gemans had to wait 7 years to get that gold back. I (and many others) speculated that one reason might be that the US has encumbered the gold via leases to others. That speculation is strengthened by fact no independent audit has been allowed for SIX DECADES! Congressman Ron Paul tried hard for years to get a new independent audit done but was "stonewalled" by the administration. That does make one wonder what they must hide.

BTW there is at the quote's source a link to an 8:46 minute video of the German fault in Frankfurt, which is waiting for the gold. This is a direct link to that video:
http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Videos/gold_im_tresor.html
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Awesome, with one small little problem, the issue was never wither Germany wants to repatriate its gold over a period of time. The issue is and has always been your claim that The Federal Reserve told Germany it couldn’t have its gold deposits back immediately and would need to wait 5 to 7 years (depending on your post) in order to withdraw its gold deposits. You went on to speculate that the reason the Fed refused to immediately repatriate Germany’s gold was because the Fed didn’t have it, that the Fed had loaned out the gold. And you went on to say that the Fed hadn’t completed a gold audit in nearly a half century. When in fact there is no evidence that The Federal Reserve told Germany it couldn’t withdraw all of its gold deposits immediately and there is no evidence that The Federal Reserve loaned out Germany’s gold deposits and didn’t have Germany’s gold. And The Federal Reserve in fact just completed a gold audit in 2012.

I have repeatedly challenged you to produce a single credible source for your claims regarding the Federal Reserve. You have obfuscated, you have cited a number of conspiracy web sites, you have set up straw man arguments and engage in in host of ad hominem. You have stalked me in Sciforms, and you have abused your power as a moderator.

My challenge remains unanswered, one credible source that backs up your claim The Federal Reserve doesn’t have Germany’s gold and that the Fed told Germany it would have to wait 5-7 years in order to get its gold deposits back from The Federal Reserve.

Billy T · Jan 4, 2014

joepistole said: ↑

... My challenge remains unanswered, one credible source that backs up your claim The Federal Reserve doesn’t have Germany’s gold and that the Fed told Germany it would have to wait 5-7 years in order to get its gold deposits back from The Federal Reserve.
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More lies and words placed in my mouth for you to then refute. Quote me saying that and of course give link to the post as you have often invented me saying things.

As I said in last post, one reason why the Gold has not been all returned in less than a day (via four less than 12 hour trips by C-17) is that their gold MAY BE ECOMBERED (Leased out to others). I have also asked you why you think it was not returned promptly. The vault in Frankfurt is waiting and only about 1/3 full. see it in video at: http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Videos/gold_im_tresor.html

Even when the 300 tonnes in US and the 374 tonnes in Paris are returned so Germany has half its gold reserve on ts own soil, the vault will be less than half full. I.e. lack of secure storage space it not why it is going to take 7 years to give Germany its gold back, but waiting for lease terms to expire COULD be.

I don't think you have English understanding problem, but just in case: "could be," "may be" & "might be" are NOT verbs of declarative assertions. I. e. AGAIN, I never said what you FALSELY claim I did.

joepistole · Jan 4, 2014

Billy T said: ↑

More lies and words place in my mouth for you to then refute. Quote me saying that and of course give link to the post as you have often invented me saying things.

As I said in last post, one reason why the Gold has not been all returned in less than a day (via four less than 12 hour trips by C-17) is that their gold MAY BE ECOMBERED (Leased out to others). I have also asked you why you think it was not returned promptly. The vault in Frankfurt is waiting and only about 1/3 full. see it in video at: http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Videos/gold_im_tresor.html

Even when the 300 tonnes in US and the 374 tonnes in Paris are returned so Germany has half its gold reserve on ts own soil, the vault will be less than half full. I.e. lack of secure storage space it not why it is going to take 7 years to give Germany its gold back, but waiting for lease terms to expire COULD be.

I don't think you have English understanding problem, but just in case: "could be," "may be" & "might be" are NOT verbs of declarative assertions. I. e. AGAIN, I never said what you FALSELY claim I did.
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For starters there is no need to go back and endlessly reposts something you continue to post. You have not proven that Germany requested its gold back immediately. You have not offered credible proof that The Federal Reserve refused to deliver Germany’s gold. You have no credible evidence The Federal Reserve is not returning Germany’s gold in a timely manner.

Your referenced video shows gold in a Bundesbank vault. There is no indication that vault is or is intended to be used to warehouse Germany’s foreign gold deposits.

“Gold in the vault

The video shows gold bars in a vault of the Deutsche Bundesbank. The footage material (in HD resolution) can be requested via the Press Office of the Deutsche Bundesbank for media purposes.” – your reference

What you have done is take stuff from specious and spurious websites and offer that as proof of your conspiratorial machinations. So again Billy T. where is the credible evidence that supports your contention that The Federal Reserve is unable or unwilling to return Germany’s gold deposits in a timely manner? The bottom line is you have none and that is why you have gone on with all the obfuscation, the name calling, the straw man arguments, the bold fonts, etc.

You cannot have any degree of credibility when you use specious and spurious sources as the basis for your machinations. The bottom line here Billy T is that you have very little knowledge of economics and business coupled with a lot of misinformation which is deeply rooted in conspiratorial fantasies.

Billy T · Jan 4, 2014

joepistole said: ↑

... So again Billy T. where is the credible evidence that supports your contention that The Federal Reserve is unable or unwilling to return Germany’s gold deposits in a timely manner? ...
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Wrong question! Where is the post where I said that? You need to stop putting words in my mouth !!!!

joepistole · Jan 4, 2014

Billy T said: ↑

Wrong question! Where is the post where I said that? You need to stop putting words in my mouth !!!!
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Read your posts.

Billy T · Jan 5, 2014

joepistole said: ↑

Read your posts.
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I know what I wrote. It is NOT what you invented and stuffed in my mouth. Proof that false by actual quote of me (with link given) rather than more repeats of your lies.

Billy T · Jan 11, 2014

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Applicants hoping for a summer job at Kentucky Kingdom fun park.

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1 of every 4 US jobs EXISTING NOW is a part time job and all most all at the minimum wage (or less if maid etc. and BLS does not know about job, etc.) AND that fraction is increasing as more than 2/3 of ALL NEW JOBS are a part-time "Big-Mac" jobs! (But don't worry - unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% with BLS's distorting calculations.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-09/is-jobless-rate-really-falling-.html?alcmpid=view said:

About 6.5 million jobs have been added since the trough four years ago even as more than 11 million people have given up looking for work. Those people still exist even if they aren't counted in the unemployment number, which is why the employment-population ratio hasn't really increased since the worst of the crisis. ...

Aging and retirement explain SOME of the decline in the number of people looking for work. But that is an insufficient explanation for the broad reduction in the number of Americans in the labor force. Just compare the labor force participation rate for people aged 55 years and up with the rate for those aged 25 to 54. As you can see, {in graph below} older Americans have maintained their pre-crisis participation rate even as the rate of adults in their prime working years has fallen by more than 2 percentage points.

One consequence of this decline is that the employment-population ratio for 25-54 year-olds has barely recovered from its crisis trough even though the unemployment rate for this age cohort has plunged to a little more than 6 percent from a peak of more that 9 percent. Unlike most Americans, the participation rate for those aged 65 and older has increased substantially since the start of the recession, almost certainly because the huge decline in house and stock prices made it necessary to delay retirement. That means that a significant fraction of the 8 million elderly Americans with jobs might leave the labor force if asset prices keep rising.
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Don't even ask the typical college grad, living in his dad's basement if it is easy to get a jobs and start paying down on his ~$25,000 college loan or start a new family. Finding a non-BigMac full time jobs is tough in part because the old with good jobs won't give them up and retire in the tough times.

There are three ways to be dishonest: Fib / exaggerate, etc., tell "Dam lies" or use statistics.

The US's BLS, which tells us that unemployment is falling is very expert in the third way: For example makes no distinction between good full time and part time fill-in job at Big-Mac or some bar's rush hour. So part time "employed" Mary, whose low and declining purchasing power salary no longer lets her wash with Dove soap as she did and liked. Now she buy cheaper ivory or dish washing soap as shampoo. The BLS uses these type of facts to report the cost of personal hygiene is declining.

Buy a new car for 50% more than the old one cost? Well BLS notes that the new one has GPS, air bags, etc. and is twice the value, so cost of cars has fallen by 50%! etc. Wonderful (but strange) how the CPI is going down yet Joe Amercan can't seem to make ends meet any more, except by buying franks instead of steak. Recall the "franks & beans" lady's comments to Obama in a crowd a few years go to the effect that if things did not improve soon, she would not even be able to buy franks and beans.
I have not heard from her recently but for typical Joe American things are growing worse still - the middle class is shrinking - a new "first for the USA."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-10/payrolls-in-u-s-rise-less-than-forecast-jobless-rate-at-6-7-.html said:

The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7 percent, the lowest since October 2008, as more people left the labor force. ...The so-called participation rate decreased to 62.8 percent, matching October as the lowest since 1978.

Among those having trouble finding work is Caroline Hogge, 48, who has been looking since July 2012, when she left a procurement job at Warner Bros. in California. She moved back to her parents’ home in Tennessee and has applied for jobs as far afield as New Hampshire and Indiana. “I go in for the interview, and then have feedback saying that ‘oh, they loved you, but you were overqualified,” said Hogge, who has a master’s degree in history from Indiana University.

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), which last hired flight attendants from outside the company in 2011, received applications at a rate of 80 a minute, amassing 10,000 resumes for 750 openings. Chief Executive Officer Gary Kelly, in a weekly recorded message in December, said it was “like opening up the floodgates.”

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1 percent to $24.17 in December from the prior month and increased 1.8 percent over the past 12 months. {But} The average work week for all workers fell six minutes to 34.4 hours.
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The distorted BLS unemployment rate is starting to cause problems for the Fed who said they would stop suppressing interest rates when unemployment fell significantly below 6.5%. I.e. that may happen before the economy is strong enough to with stand normal interest rates (more than twice the current ones). If it does become a problem, I suggest the BLS claim Chinese hackers distorted their data and after correcting for that, the unemployment rate has stopped falling.
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Michael · Jan 15, 2014

The US Economy as seen through Federal Reserve's 6 years of "quantitative easing" and trillion dollars worth of unknownable debt. Given there's no end in sight, if you drink yourself stupid for 10 years - does that count as being an alcoholic? I just want to known what to call this mess when 2018 rolls around and "the economy" is addicted to QE 10 (or whatever new name Ole' Yeller makes up for her version of QE......maybe she'll name it Methodological Easing, otherwise known as the Fed's new Meth program?)

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elte · Jan 15, 2014

Billy T said: ↑

Applicants hoping for a summer job at Kentucky Kingdom fun park.
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Maybe they can get a job at the proposed true-to-scale Noah's Ark that Answers in Genesis wants to blow limited Earth resources on.

Billy T · Jan 16, 2014

Student loan debt went above 1 trillion dollars in 3Q13. That was the focus of the NY Fed's briefing. (an hour and 18 minutes) at: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/fed-...-u-s-economy-jobs-T8UNwfUxTDCkLYoBrxsUBw.html Or read: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...n-focus-recognizes-threat-to-u-s-economy.html Here is a quote from there:
"The share of 25-year-old Americans with student debt increased to 43 percent in 2012 from 25 percent in 2003, and the average loan balance rose 91 percent, to $20,326 from $10,649, New York Fed data shows. "

Is US in "Recovery mode" or "lost generation" mode ?? Note also that the older American job participation rate is slightly increasing - all the drop to decades low is in the youth lacking jobs, even just part time / Big Mac jobs so BLS could claim they were in the work force. See dramatic graph of this here: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...e-worse-news&p=3151835&viewfull=1#post3151835 (the last graph in post 670, this thread there.)

Among the many reasons for concern is that the default rate is rising (How to pay with no job or only a Big Mac job?) and the wider impact on the economy as they live at parents home - don't marry and form new families buying homes with all the applances in it, etc. Now 11.8% are 90 days behind on payments - much worse than credit card debt with its smaller total debt.

Productivity is declining in advanced economies and rapidly slowing in the emergent ones. (Lack of domestic demand means low utilization of factories etc. and certainly no need to build new ones or expand.) "... The Conference Board said: “This stalling appears to be the result of slowing demand in recent years, ..." Read their recent report at: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c0ea2a82-7d18-11e3-a579-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2qHFUSO95 which begins with:

" A productivity crisis is stalking the global economy with most countries failing last year to improve their overall efficiency for the first time in decades. ..." and or see my extract from it and discussion at: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...g-because-of&p=3153137&viewfull=1#post3153137

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/imfs-christine-lagarde-predicts-higher-global-growth-but-warns-of-risks/articleshow/28854240.cms said:

"We see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery," Lagarde said at the National Press Club in Washington, according to prepared remarks. "If inflation is the genie, then deflation is the ogre that must be fought decisively."

Lagarde also warned about the volatility that could accompany the U.S. Federal Reserve's gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. "Overall, the direction is positive, but global growth is still too low, too fragile, and too uneven," she said.
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Michael · Jan 16, 2014

Billy T said: ↑

Among the many reasons for concern is that the default rate is rising (How to pay with no job or only a Big Mac job?) and the wider impact on the economy as they live at parents home - don't marry and form new families buying homes with all the applances in it, etc.
Click to expand...

This one is easy, do what Australia has done and simply replace the population with people born overseas. In AU, 26% of Australians are born overseas. My guess it'll be upwards to 40-50+ % over the next 25-35 years. Then you sell off as much land and houses to the Chinese as they will buy. This is good because those Chinese can buy the appliances and the homes and your kids can rent share-houses together with their mates. Working two jobs at a Cafe' and fast-food will give you your share-rent for your share-room. Many young Aussie's didn't want to have a family anyway. Done and Done. Now all those goodies you wanted for free - well, they're not for free, but you still get to have them. Obesity and Cardiovascular surgery for all!

Peacefully replacing the indigenous population is one of those little side-effects of having a Central Bank.

Billy T · Jan 16, 2014

Michael said: ↑

This one is easy, do what Australia has done and simply replace the population with people born overseas. In AU, 26% of Australians are born overseas.
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Not much logic here. If anything immigrants work for less and accelerate the reduction in purchasing power of Salaries - making just keeping roof overhead and food on the table tougher for many. (Even harder, not easier as you suggest, to move out of Dad's basement!) That increase of immigration does not redistribute wealth, but concentrates it as the rich now can produce in their factories with lower labor cost, even without spending for automation! "Income disparity" is already a problem and growing worse, except in countries like China (double digit real increase in salaries, as they have a labor shortage.) and in Scandinavia, where high AND PROGRESSIVE taxes provide nearly free education and health care, FOR ALL.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-01-16/Wealth-Gap-Unemployment-Risks-To-Consider-WEF-Global-Risks-2014.html said:

Income disparity is the biggest risk to consider in the next decade, while unemployment is not too far behind on the list, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said in its Global Risks 2014 report. The report, released on Thursday, surveyed over 700 global experts and argued that income inequality will be the risk ‘most likely to cause serious damage globally in the coming decade.’

It also discussed the risks associated with unemployment and underemployment, especially among the youth – referred to as the ‘lost generation’ – and how they will struggle to find opportunities and deal with rising education costs. “As a result of the financial crisis and globalization, the younger generation in the mature markets struggle with ever fewer job opportunities and the need to support an ageing population,” said David Cole, Group Chief Risk Officer of Swiss Re, in the report.
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Billy T · Jan 26, 2014

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Not really red, with Chinese flag painted on it {yet?}, but this NYC office building with US's largest private gold vault, JPMorgans, in basement has been recently sold to the Chinese. Synopsis of new book The Big Reset on this etc.:

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=129766 said:

Now five years after the near fatal collapse of world’s financial system we have to conclude central bankers and politicians have merely been buying time by trying to solve a credit crisis by creating even more debt. As a result worldwide central bank’s balance sheets expanded by $10 trillion. With this newly created money central banks have been buying up national bonds so long term interest rates and bond yields have collapsed. But ‘parking’ debt at national banks is no structural solution. The idea we can grow our way back out of this mountain of debt is a little naïve. In a recent working paper by the IMF titled ‘Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten’ the economist Reinhart and Rogoff point to this ‘denial problem’. According to them future economic growth will ‘not be sufficient to cope with the sheer magnitude of public and private debt overhangs. Rogoff and Reinhart conclude the size of the debt problems suggests that debt restructurings will be needed ‘far beyond anything discussed in public to this point.’ The endgame to the global financial crisis is likely to require restructuring of debt on a broad scale.*

Two major problems in the world’s financial system have to be addressed, the demise of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency and the almost uncontrollable growth of the worldwide mountain of debts and central banks’ balance sheets. A reset planned well in advance can and probably will consist of different stages. So currently the U.S. together with the IMF seems to be planning a multiple reserve currency system as a successor of the current dollar system.

About the author: Willem Middelkoop is founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and a bestselling Dutch author, who has been writing about the world’s financial system since the early 2000s. Between 2001 and 2008 he was a market commentator for RTL Television in the Netherlands and also appeared on CNBC. He predicted the credit crisis in his first bestseller in 2007.
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* A new advisory job for Argentina's Husband and then wife presidents? They have lot of experience about how to take a nation into defaulting on it bonds - done that twice and just this past week-end devalued the currency again. US, thus far has done that devaluation, slowly but steadily. That will change soon and how to do overnight devaluation with least damage politically to the government they can help with.

BTW: Most of the real (not paper) gold available in the market has moved to Asia now from US's ETF vaults. (>80% of the deliveralble gold held at the start of 2012 by the largest gold ETF, GLD, left the vault during 2013 - see documentation in the "gold goes pop" thread. It mainly went first to refiners in Switzerland to be re-casted, then the blanks minted by coin press with mint's ID etc. into smaller than 1Kg bars** - say only 400 to 100gram bars that are more affordable for upper middle class Chinese to buy.

Thus JP Morgan was smart to sell their vault as many US vaults (perhaps even Fort Knox?) are nearly empty of US owned gold. All most all, if not all, in the Fed's NYC vault, they admit is owned by others. If you were thinking of buying some, while price was depressed, its a little late - that boat has already sailed. Price of real gold is up 5.48% in just the first three weeks of 2014. I have been actively warning you for several years, that paper gold traders would lose control of the price to the Law of Supply and Demand, soon. Looks like that is now in progress now as the small graph below shows:

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** Smaller bars, like these:
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After final packing, many of these blue boxes full of the smaller bars in demand go to Hong Kong by air each day. Demand for real gold has increased so much that refiners now work 24/7 and still can not meet the demand, so buyers pay 20 + or - 5% for quick delivery (Small graph shows in last 30 days price has gone up more than 2% per day. - Thus 10 days sooner delivery cancels the premium!).

Joepistole:
Don't you have some more words to put in my mouth? Or at least say what I post is right wing conspiracy, BS with faked photos and data? As you did in post 657, 666. et. al.

Michael · Jan 30, 2014

Thank the GODS Helicopter Ben over at the "Federal" Reserve bailed out the richest 0.01% by shoveling generational debt onto the poorest while pulling the rug out from under anyone who may have stood a chance of creating a meaningful business and providing gainful employment.

Welcome to the New Economy.

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joepistole · Jan 30, 2014

Michael said: ↑

Thank the GODS Helicopter Ben over at the "Federal" Reserve bailed out the richest 0.01% by shoveling generational debt onto the poorest while pulling the rug out from under anyone who may have stood a chance of creating a meaningful business and providing gainful employment.

Welcome to the New Economy.

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Yeah, it's pretty amazing what counting employed people as unemployed can do for your unemployment rate.
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It's amazing what you can claim when you just make up numbers in order to support your ideology.

In the real world, we don't make up numbers. We don't invent fiction and call it nonfiction.

Billy T · Jan 30, 2014

joepistole said: ↑

Yeah, it's pretty amazing what counting employed people as unemployed can do for your unemployment rate.
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It's amazing what you can claim when you just make up numbers in order to support your ideology. In the real world, we don't make up numbers. We don't invent fiction and call it nonfiction.
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I beg to differ about that as ShadowStats only use the BLS's own definitions and computations of about 15 years ago, before the BLS decided most of the potential labor force* could be ignored. So who really has been "inventing fiction" ?

For example, reason why BLS defined "unemployment" dropped to 6.5% even with drastic reduction in new jobs (<half what was predicted) is because more potential workers ceased to look for a job (or retired now at >10,000 per day)** than workers who found one (and 2/3 of those new jobs were part-time and / or "Big Mac" jobs, counted by BLS as if they were the same as good-pay, full-time jobs for the publicly announced "unemployment rate, even though BLS does have the data to do it their old way still - like ShadowStats still does.).

Lincoln said it well:
(1) Can fool all of the people some of the time" (like Joe, I'll add)
(2) Can fool some of the people all of the time" (like Joe, I'll add)
(3) But you cannot fool all of the people, all of the time." (That's because the reality of decreasing purchasing power and falling labor participation rate is felt by the people.)

* Defined by having good health, not being in army or jail and with age between 18 and 65 as I recall by BOTH SadowStats and the pre-2000 BLS - but not by BLS's new definitions - I. e. by actively looking for work in last 30 days or with and job, even just parking cars part time for night club.

** If all but 100 workers retired, or ceased to look for a job, then the unemployment rate would 0.00 according to the BLS even with 50 million not employed and needing work! The BLS foresaw automated factories and robots coming when few would be qualified or needed as workers. This artificially low "unemployment rate" is starting to be a problem for Janet Yelin - stocks are lower now than last November with just a hint of tappen - none actually done yet. She maus invent new "rules" for continuing to pump out at least 50 billion more thin-air money each month.

joepistole · Jan 30, 2014

Billy T said: ↑

I beg to differ about that as ShadowStats only use the BLS's own definitions and computations of about 15 years ago, before the BLS decided most of the potential labor force* could be ignored. So who really has been "inventing fiction" ?
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Well ShadowStats does more than that. They count employed people as unemployed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has never done that. We have been down this road umpteen times before. ShadowStats is one of those fringe websites which caters to the conspiracy and right wing lunatic fringes in order to justify their ideological positions. It’s not used by investment and business professionals.

Billy T said: ↑

I For example, reason why BLS defined "unemployment" dropped to 6.5% even with drastic reduction in new jobs (<half what was predicted) is because more potential workers ceased to look for a job (or retired now at >10,000 per day)** than workers who found one (and 2/3 of those new jobs were part-time and / or "Big Mac" jobs, counted by BLS as if they were the same as good-pay, full-time jobs for the publicly announced "unemployment rate, even though BLS does have the data to do it their old way still - like ShadowStats still does.).
Click to expand...

That doesn’t even make sense.

Billy T said: ↑

Lincoln said it well:
(1) Can fool all of the people some of the time" (like Joe, I'll add)
(2) Can fool some of the people all of the time" (like Joe, I'll add)
(3) But you cannot fool all of the people, all of the time." (That's because the reality of decreasing purchasing power and falling labor participation rate is felt by the people.)

* Defined by having good health, not being in army or jail and with age between 18 and 65 as I recall by BOTH SadowStats and the pre-2000 BLS - but not by BLS's new definitions - I. e. by actively looking for work in last 30 days or with and job, even just parking cars part time for night club.

** If all but 100 workers retired, then the unemployment rate would 0.00 !
Click to expand...

And the greatest fool of all is the fool who fools himself…something about the Emperor’s clothes seems appropriate here.

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